Tag Archives: London

Falling rolls in London: much worse than the rest of England

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In my last post on this blog, I looked at the worsening of primary PTRs across much of the DfE’s ‘Inner London’ area. Falling Rolls: Is the funding formula making matters worse? | John Howson

This post looks how ‘Inner London boroughs have fare compared with the rest of England over those three years?

I think it is fair to say that London as a whole really has seen a significant downturn in primary pupil numbers. There are 22 local authorities where primary pupil numbers as published by the DfE have reduced by 5% or more between 2023/24 and 2025/26. Of these, 13 are London boroughs, and six – seven if Newham is included – are Inner London boroughs.

Seven of the top 10 places for the largest percentage decline in primary pupil numbers are filled by London boroughs. The other three places are taken by the Isle of Wight, Rutland and Torbay, three of the smallest unitary authorities in England.

Birmingham, Manchester and Leicester are the only large cities in the table. They fill three of the four bottom places for local authorities with a decline in pupil numbers of five per cent or more, along with Hillingdon in West London.

At the other end of the table, there are few London boroughs with less than a two per cent decline in their primary pupil populations.


London boroughs at this end of the table seem to be mostly outer London boroughs on the fringe of the metropolitan area. By contrast, there are seven county councils in the list of lowest declines in pupil numbers. This number increases to eight, if the Staffordshire figure, of an increase in pupil numbers, is correct.

The London boroughs will have the numbers in reception for each year, and will know how much worse the decline is likely to become over the next few years. More school closures look inevitable unless the funding model is changed to protect schools with declining rolls.

Not to protect the school estate in London is to assume that there will never be an upturn in pupil numbers. In cities, closing schools and selling off the site for housing means that in any upturn land may not be available for any new schools needed for the extra pupils. This is where thinking for the longer-term is important. During the last downturn of this size, most schools in London remained open, although some, such as Stamford Hill Infant and Junior School in Haringey, where I attended in the 1950s, did eventually close. Interestingly, the one form entry St Anne’s Church of England Primary School, close to Stamford Hill School that wasn’t actually in Stamford Hill, is still open.

However, this is not the post to discuss whether or not, in a more secular society, faith run schools should be closed where an alternative non-faith school can absorb the pupils. But this is an issue to debate, especially in urban areas.

In villages, the church-run school may still be the only school available, and that raises a much larger question about who should run state funded schooling? As the Wesleyan Methodists put it when faced by the 1902 Act, and decisions on whether to open state-funded secondary schools; are our teachers, teachers of children or teachers of Methodist children?

Falling Rolls: Is the funding formula making matters worse?

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There has been a lot of discussion recently about falling school rolls in the primary school sector in London. This discussion led me to wonder whether a funding formula that is heavily weighted to a per pupil funding model might mean schools with falling rolls would have to adapt to a decrease in their income.

One possible outcome of less funding could be a worsening of pupil teacher ratios if individual support for pupils with SEND is cut, and also whole classes are amalgamated. My thesis is that Inner London boroughs might be witnessing the worst of the falling rolls problem, partly because they are boroughs with little room for new housing to be built, but also because inner cities have traditionally been the home of new arrivals to a country. Post Brexit, many European families from countries such as Poland and Romania may also have chosen to return home, taking their children with them.

With the release last week of the school workforce data for 2025/26, by the DfE, it is possible to review the pupil teacher ratios (PTRs) for each borough for the three-year period from 2023/24 to 2025/26.

Of the boroughs in London, including the City of London, 11 boroughs improved their primary PTRs between 2023/24 and 2025/26. All but one, Camden, were Outer London boroughs. All the other Inner London boroughs recorded a worsening of their primary PTRS over the three- year period.

In the case of Kensington and Chelesea, albeit a small borough, the change was from 17.2 to 19.1 pupils per teacher over the three years: a decline of some 10%. This is a relatively large change for such a short period of time.

Seven Outer London boroughs also recorded a worsening of their primary PTRs over the same period. Of these boroughs, two, Newham and Greenwich have been classified as Inner London boroughs at sometime in the past.

Apart from the City of London, the boroughs with most improved PTRs are on the edge of London – Harrow, Havering, Hillingdon, Barnet, Croydon and Bromley.

The data in the table does suggest that falling rolls have been accompanied by a worsening of PTRs. Might this be caused in part by the construction of the National Funding formula that is heavily weighted towards a per pupil element? Reduced funding is certainly likely to impact upon class sizes and the use of teachers with small groups. Increasing class sizes and cutting individual teacher support for vulnerable learners is likely to impact upon a school’s PTR. If the reduction in pupil number sis widespread across a borough, then the impact will be seen in the PTRS for all primary schools in the borough.

I think that there is a case to be made that falling rolls are worsening PTRs for the remaining pupils across much of Inner London.

For a longer-term analysis of PTRS in London, and how over time they have been better than in most of England see  (1) (PDF) PTRS OVER TIME: A REVIEW OF PUPIL TEACHER RATIOS BETWEEN 1974 AND 2024 AND TWO PERIODS OF LOCAL GOVERNMENT RE-ORGANISATION PTRS OVER TIME: A REVIEW OF PUPIL TEACHER RATIOS

Demand for music teachers: where were the jobs in early 2026?

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This post follows on from my previous post, written yesterday, and looks in more detail at the vacancies for music teachers tracked since January 1st 2026. Music teachers: labour market update | John Howson

Due to further data cleansing, the numbers may slightly differ from yesterday in some respects after mis-allocations in certain fields have been corrected.

Vacancies are generally either for a main scale/Upper Pay Spine post or for a promoted post.

In terms of the ratio of promoted posts with a TLR, or in a few cases a Leadership Scale offer, to posts without any additional allowance, the East Midlands region tops the list at 37% of advertised posts with a TLR.  At the other end of the scale, no promoted posts have been recorded for the North East. It may be that schools in the North East use regional job boards for promoted posts. Those boards are currently out of scope of my survey.

The East of England region also had a lower-than-average percentage of promoted posts in the total of advertised vacancies. However, this may be partly due to the larger than average number of posts advertised without any additional pay supplement dragging down the percentage of promoted posts.

Most promoted post are TLRs advertised as a 2b.

In terms of the need to re-advertise vacancies for teachers of music, there are three clear regional groups: the East Midland and East of England with well above average levels of schools re-advertising; Yorkshire and The Humber region where, to date, no re-advertisements have been recorded, along with the West Midlands, North East and South West, regions with well below average levels of re-advertisements.

The remaining regions have re-advertisement rates broadly in line with the national average. Of course, there is still time for other schools to re-advertise before the end of the summer term. However, as they would only be attracting ITT completers or returners, this might be something of a futile exercise, only worthwhile if at no cost, such as using the DfE vacancy website.

Interesting questions that arise from the data are: how well does ITT provision map with demand and are there any characteristics of schools that re-advertise vacancies – high free school meal percentages; excellent music departments; high-cost housing areas; long distance from ITT provision no recent history of schools being used by trainees?

Other interesting questions to research include: the balance of full-time versus part-time vacancies and between permanent and temporary vacancies; and how many of the latter are as a result of a teacher taking maternity leave? Fortunately this data has been collected along with whether or not the school is an academy and if the post is eligible for visa sponsorship: most are not.

If I have the time, I will try and address some of these questions in the round-up after the end of the summer term in August. Meantime, any views would be welcome in the comments section.

NEETS: Why is London so different to the rest of England?

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London seems to be a different world to much of the rest of England when it comes to looking at a range of different indicators about education. The latest one where the statistics raise an interesting question is the percentage of 16- and 17-year-olds that are NEETs (Not in Education, Employment or Training).

With the raising of the suggested ‘learning leaving age’ to eighteen (the official age is still sixteen) it is expected that almost all students in what is Years 12 and 13 should be in some form of certified education or training. The DfE asks local authorities for data each year bout the percentage participating in education or training and produces scorecards on-line. I wonder how many local authority scrutiny committees ever see this data? Participation in education, training and NEET age 16 to 17 by local authority, Academic year 2024/25 – Explore education statistics – GOV.UK

The scorecard for Oxfordshire can be found at Oxfordshire_neet_comparator_scorecard.pdf

Looking through the data for all local authorities for both 2019 and 2025 what struck we was there was a definite London effect. 28 London boroughs had higher participation rates in 2025 than in 2019. For the rest of England there were only 37 other local authorities with higher participation rates in 2025 than in 2019.

One explanation is the inclusion of ‘no data’ in the NEETs percentage. As the DfE noted;

 ‘NEET/not known rates at the end of 2024/start of 2025 ranged from 0.0% City of London to 21.5% in Dudley. Dudley’s rate includes 2.4% NEET and 19.1% activity not known.’

So, either London boroughs are better at collecting the data – quite possible, given their relatively small size and close geographical cohesion, or there is something else going on.

On the other hand, only seven ‘shire counties’ had higher participation rates in 2025 than in 2019.  Might the decimation of rural bus services and the effect of a punitive motor tax on those without a no claims bonus be something to do with this change? Could it be that in large counties there are no longer the staff to badger multi-academy trusts (MATs) to provide accurate data about the destination of Year 11 leavers?

I think the DfE data should make clear both the known percentage of NEETs and the percentage of the age group where these is no data available. Perhaps, there might be a scorecard of MATs to identify those that provide high quality data, and those where hard pressed local authorities have to waste time and money chasing the data.

With the job market looking increasingly challenging over the next few years, and fewer incentives for employers to offer jobs with training to school leavers, the percentage of NEETs is an issue that needs more visibility, especially with the rapid growth in EHCPs. Will the significant increase in young people with mental health issues result in more NEETs, and if so, will London be different?

Sutton Trust and the London effect

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The recent publication of  an Opportunity Index Interactive Map – The Sutton Trust by the Sutton Trust raises some interesting questions about both methodology and the funding of schools.

I am in the process of completing an article discussing changes in pupil teacher ratios in England over the past 50 years between period of local government re-organisation. What struck me in doing that research was how often London boroughs had the most favourable PTRs, both in the late 1970s, and fifty years later in the 2020s.

Now, the Sutton Trust uses constituencies not borough in their mapping, but there is the same result: London parliamentary constituencies in the 2024 general election fill the top 20 places in a number of the Sutton Trust rankings, including the attainment 8 score for pupils with Free School Meals – not sure whether that is entitlement or take up, as they can be different in the secondary sector.

The Sutton Trust map illustrates the high rankings for much of London and parts of the Home Counties to the north and west of London. I am sure that the f40 Group of Local authorities will find this a useful tool to show how badly rural areas are funded, with many rural constituencies falling into the lowest toe categories of ‘very low’ and ‘low’.

Someone might also want to look at rural areas where there are selective secondary schools. I was struck by the fact that Weald of Kent constituency, where I stood in the 2024 general election for the Liberal Democrats, ranked 526th out of 533 constituencies in the Opportunity Index listing. Pupils in the constituency are in the Kent selective school system, and most don’t qualify for free transport to a selective school, even if they pass the entry test. Does that make a difference?

Looking at pupils that grew up in Oxfordshire, there are large differences. in the rankings in the Opportunity Index, with Bicester & Woodstock constituency ranked 68th in the opportunity rankings, and Oxford East some 398 places lower,  with a ranking of 466 out of the 533 constituencies.

ConstituencyRank out of 533Top 50% earners by age 28Top 20% of earners by 28Attainment 8 for Free School Meals Pupils
Banbury41037729
Bicester & Woodstock68431236
Didcot & Wantage260361231
Henley & Thame211461632
Oxford East466351029
Oxford West & Abingdon259401235
Witney324431027

This disparity helps to make the point I have made before, that the present funding formula for schools doesn’t work for pockets of deprivation in relatively affluent upper tier authorities. This has been the message of the f40 Group for some considerable time, and is supported by my study of PTRs across the past 50 years.

The last paragraph is not to deny the fact that urban constituencies in the metropolitan areas take up many of the lowest ranking positions, but it is worth looking at those constituencies that are near the bottom of the rankings, such as Clacton and Weald of Kent, and that don’t fit the normal perception of areas where opportunities are mor limited than in other constituencies.

Tis it once again time to discuss again how we fund our schools, and what society wants its schooling system to try to achieve.

More jobs: lower employment outcomes

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The data provided by the DfE in the teacher profiles is very much at the headline level and has made direct comparisons with previous year more of a challenge except where the DfE has recalculated the data for earlier years. This blog looks at employment percentages by ethnic group and region of training.

The change in methodology introduced by the DfE in calculating completion rates for postgraduate students in ITT in 2021/22 has made a difference to the percentages of each ethnic grouping employed in state-funded schools. For comments on last year’s data under the previous methodology please see Disturbing profile data on new teachers | John Howson (wordpress.com)

For the latest DfE profiles see Initial teacher training performance profiles, Academic year 2021/22 – Explore education statistics – GOV.UK (explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk)

Although the difference between the groups is smaller than under the previous methodology, there are still differences. The most notable is between the Asian Group and the White and Black groups; a difference of some 7% points.

Postgraduate trainee qualified teacher status and employment outcomes by ethnic group

Group2017/182018/192019/202020/212021/22
Total80%78%74%73%75%
Asian78%73%67%64%69%
Black82%81%74%71%76%
Mixed82%81%74%71%76%
Other79%75%65%66%71%
White81%78%74%74%76%
Unknown78%86%80%76%80%
Initial teacher training performance profiles

The ‘unknown’ grouping is the only one where under the new methodology the 2021/22 percentage is higher than the percentage in 2017/18. The increase for this grouping may be down to the larger numbers in the latest survey recorded as ‘unknown’.

Again, the lack of a breakdown between primary trainees, where trainees may have found that  jobs were more difficult to come by, and secondary sector trainees, where in most subjects the jobs advertised exceeded trainee numbers, makes it difficult to say much more about the overall outcomes for the sector. However, a percentage of the increases in employment percentages between 2020/21 and 2021/22 can be put down to the larger increase in secondary teacher vacancies between the two years.

There is little difference in employment outcomes for other groups, with women having a slightly higher percentage employed in state-funded schools than men, and older trainees a slightly high percentage than younger trainees.

Postgraduate trainee outcomes by region for the 2021/22 academic year

Total traineesPercentage awarded QTSPercentage of those awarded QTS teaching in a state-funded school
England31,74793%75%
North East1,26187%66%
North West4,84093%64%
Yorkshire and The Humber3,35890%72%
East Midlands2,13492%78%
West Midlands3,34693%73%
East of England2,53194%85%
London7,31994%81%
South East4,57494%78%
South West2,38493%77%
Initial teacher training performance profiles

London and the Home Counties were the regions where the highest percentages of those awarded QTS were likely to be employed in a state-funded school. This is despite the fact that these areas also contain the largest percentage of private schools.

Some of the rationale for reducing trainee numbers in the north of England is obvious from the employment outcomes. Assuming that trainees wish to join the state sector, the fact that only two thirds of those with QTS in both the North East and North West regions were in employment does suggest that there was a question about the distribution of places across the country. The reduction of places in the South West after the recent review, and especially in Devon, does seem harder to explain from just the employment statics alone.

Reduced ITT numbers; who wins?

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A review of the detail behind last December’s DfE ITT Census can shine some interesting light on how the current recruitment crisis can affect different schools.

Broadly speaking, trainees can be classified into three groups: those in school and the classroom and receiving a salary; those on school centred courses, but not salaried and finally, those in higher education or other associated courses. The first group are most likely to be employed in the schools where they are training, and so are not considered part of the pool of job seekers for September vacancies.

The second group may be employed by the schools where they are based, and such schools are wise to consider this option.

The third group are likely to be on the free market as job seekers for September vacancies. How have the numbers differed between 2019 and 2022? I looked at the data from the DfE’s ITT Census for three regions: London; the South East and the North East regions.

London20192022
High Achievers6411393
Apprenticeships65368
School Direct Salaried Route1044285
sub total17502046
SCITT253457
School Direct Fee Route810496
sub total1063953
Higher Education837656
total36503655
Adjust for HA2900
South East20192022
High Achievers2200
Apprenticeships3397
School Direct Salaried Route577175
sub total830272
SCITT488687
School Direct Fee Route1137828
sub total16251515
Higher Education15661252
total37682942
Adjust for HA3150
North East20192022
High Achievers870
Apprenticeships1019
School Direct Salaried Route157
sub total11226
SCITT340207
School Direct Fee Route413327
sub total753534
Higher Education618375
total1483935
Adjust for HA1,000
Source DfE ITT Census as accessed by TeachVac

The first issue is that the High Achiever numbers were all allocated to the London region in the 2022 census, whereas, in 2019, they were allocated according to the region where they were located. This has the effect of inflating trainee numbers in London in 2022, and reducing them in some other regions. I have used the 2019 numbers to compensate, but it is obviously an estimate. I am not sure why the DfE has made this change, but it is unhelpful.

The second issue is that the postgraduate numbers used in the table do not distinguish between primary and secondary courses. Part of the reduction in numbers may be down to a fall in primary course targets and allocations.

However, In the London region, the change, after adjusting for the High Achiever over-counting, resulted in a small switch in percentage terms from trainees in the first group of school-based trainees to those in the second group, with the third group of higher education classified trainees remaining at 23% of the graduate total (Not all this group are universities and some may be counted in the region where a national provider has its headquarters). However, this meant a loss of nearly 200 trainees from the free market total between 2019 and 2022. This goes some way to explain the challenges schools in London dependent upon the free market for new teachers have faced this year.

In the South East region, using the adjusted figures, the free pool percentage of trainees fell from 42% to 40% in 2022. With the reduction in recruitment, this meant a loss to the free pool of some 300 trainees, about eight per cent less than the 2019 total.

In the North East, the decline in the free pool was only around 4%, from 42% to 38%, but the decline in the actual number was nearly 500 trainees. This explains why some schools in the North East are experiencing recruitment difficulties in 2023.

As I wrote, way back in 1995, in Managing Partnerships in Teacher Training and Development by Bines and Welton (Routledge, page 213) schools that become involved the teacher preparation process can be winners in times of teacher shortages. The same is as true today as it was when I first wrote those words. 

London secondary school to close this summer

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Falling rolls have caused the closure of a secondary school in South London. Despite much of the country still battling with increasing pupil numbers across the secondary school sector, a London secondary school has announced its closure at the end of the summer term.

The statement on the school’s website states that;

The Southwark Diocesan Board of Education, Multi Academy Trust (SDBE MAT)

Due to the significant and ongoing challenges with falling pupil and application numbers in schools across London Local Authorities and the London Borough of Lambeth, and after considerable review subject to a listening period, it has been proposed to close The Archbishop Tenison’s Secondary School, Oval by the end of the academic year (August 2023).  

We understand the importance of continuing education for the students impacted by this decision and are working closely with parents, the school and colleagues at Lambeth Council, who are in the process of providing offer details for pupil placements in the academic year 2023-2024.

This closure will not be the last school closure, and raises important questions, including how soon after the unified admissions date for September entry should any closure be announced? Indeed, should closures be announced ahead of the general admissions date, and a hard date set by the DfE beyond which no state school will close for the following school-year and will be supported, if necessary, by special funding?

There are always issues with examination years and at least in this case:

The priority is for the current year 10 to have as minimal amount of disruption as they move into their final year of GCSEs as possible. The year 10’s will move as a bulk class to St Gabriel’s College which will match the curriculum and recruit some key staff from ATS to support the transition. Year 10 families are entitled to parental choice and to select a different school but we would encourage the move to St Gabriel’s College as it will support the GCSE offer that young people are already studying.

This suggests that planning had been taking place in the background. Fortunately, as this is London, there should be minimal extra transport costs as TfL picks up that bill across the capital.

However, what is the role of The Regional School commissions – this is an academy? The local authority – that much maligned democratically elected body that it seems still plays an important part in state education – and in this case the diocese?

The Diocesan Board of Education has issued a statement including the following;

As one of the longest established schools in London with a rich history of provision in Lambeth, Archbishop Tenison’s leaves behind a great legacy of achievements. Our hope is that students will go on to receive a continued, strong, and positive local education in a ‘good’ OFSTED school.

 The Rt Revd Dr Rosemarie Mallett, Bishop of Croydon and Chair of the Board of Education said: “We hope that every family, every child and every staff member will know that we are praying for them, the situation and for flourishing going forward into the future.”

I am not sure if there is a word missing before ‘flourishing’, but perhaps this is an example of a more secular society shunning church schools. However, it may be the fate of an 11-16 school rated inadequate by Ofsted at their last visit that has succumbed to market forces and been squeezed out of existence by the workings of parental choice in an area with multiple alternative choice of schools and a good transport network.

The London Evening Standard newspaper, where I picked up this story predict that

In an attempt to avoid school closures, Lambeth Council is reducing places at a number of primary schools in the borough from next year and intending to merge eight schools. But the council has limited control over what secondary schools in the borough do, as most are academies like Archbishop Tenison’s and outside of local authority control.

This is, therefore, a warning sign for the DfE that some sensible planning needs to be put in place in a system where many but not all schools are academies and some rationalisation of the system will be needed because of falling rolls and budget deficits as schools struggle to stay open and spend ever more on marketing to attract a declining number of pupils.

Either make all schools academies, and control the distribution of schools at the DfE or give local authorities planning control over all admissions and a say over the number and distribution of schools to meet local needs. Inaction is not an option, especially in urban areas with a plethora of small unitary authorities whatever their actual titles.

Archbishop Tenison’s School – Home (tenisons.com)

South London school forced to shut because it doesn’t have enough pupils (msn.com)

Big increase in teacher vacancies across London

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At the end of the first quarter of 2023, it is interesting to look at the trends in vacancies for classroom teacher vacancies in the secondary sector. I thought that London would be a good place to start such an analysis. The boroughs are a well-defined area that covers two pay zones: Inner and Outer London.

I the first quarter of 2023, TeachVac www.teachvac.co.uk recorded some 2,528 vacancies from secondary and all-age schools in the capital’s boroughs.

London
201820192020202120222023
January655983125139411771451
February60791413247658211674
March92214321430118120712528
April1032139395310281770
May1490175491818652683
June5267954179571289
July118221112150411
August79884854210
September328507324528920
October479636430550913
November471598397667946
December273439243372594
Source: TeachVac http://www.teachvac.co.uk

The total for the quarter was a new record , and was some 25% above the figure for the first quarter of 2022; itself a new record for the period since 2018. If the trend continues then May’s number will exceed 3,000 in a month for the first time. April is usually quieter than either march or May due to the Easter holidays. How the Coronation will affect may’s vacancies is a matter for conjecture at present.

Government Office Region: London
Local Authority: All

Top of Form

Subject20222023Percentage +/-
Art114145+27%
Business128130+2%
Classics3128-10%
Computer Science221362+64%
Dance58+60%
Drama111105-5%
DT288360+25%
Economics11586-25%
Engineering10-100%
English464551+19%
Geography239350+46%
Health and Social Care3124-23%
History148196+32%
Humanities1849+172%
Law36+100%
Mathematics522646+24%
Media Studies2337+61%
MFL310369+19%
Music158179+13%
Pastoral4581+80%
PE172234+36%
Philosophy1416+14%
Psychology7273+1%
RE192242+26%
Science744866+16%
–Biology8485+1%
–Chemistry111104-6%
–Physics124172+39%
SEN9489-5%
Sociology4248+14%
Total43055280+23%
Source TeachVac http://www.teachvac.co.uk

Yesterday, I posted the data for England as a whole and the picture for London broadly follows the national trend but with some much higher percentage increases in the first quarter of 2023 over the same period in 2022. For instance, computing vacancies are up by 64% and geography by 46%. Whether it is a result of the increased concern over the mental health or rising pupil rolls in parts of the capital, but pastoral post vacancies have increased by 80% when compared with Q1 in 2022. However, SEN vacancies fell by 5% year on year.

Outer London boroughs dominate the top of the table for vacancies recorded in the secondary sector by borough (These include both state and private school teaching vacancies – hence the total for the city of London).

Local AuthorityQ1 2023
Barnet371
Croydon336
Enfield248
Bromley247
Hillingdon236
Hounslow230
Ealing223
Bexley214
Harrow212
Southwark208
Redbridge199
Westminster197
Sutton172
Wandsworth170
Newham161
Richmond upon Thames159
Greenwich158
Brent155
Hackney144
Merton143
Camden141
Kingston upon Thames141
Waltham Forest141
Barking and Dagenham129
Lambeth128
Lewisham117
Tower Hamlets117
Haringey112
Hammersmith and Fulham87
Havering75
Islington71
Kensington and Chelsea51
City of London26
Grand Total5519
Source: TeachVac http://www.teachvac.co.uk

With the issues of low numbers of trainees, schools in London without access to Teach First’s High Achievers programme may struggle to recruit staff for September and certainly for January 2024 appointments.

Happy New Year: we can but hope

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For most of the past 30 years, I have spent the week between Christmas and New Year drafting annual reports on aspects of the labour market for teachers during the previous 12 months for TeachVac’s and its predecessors, and also making a prognosis of what might happen in the labour market during the year to come. The finished reports; one on classroom teachers and promoted posts, and the other on leadership scale vacancies should, this year, be completed by the middle of the month.

Headlines include the steep increase in recorded vacancies across all grades during 2022; and the fact that schools in an around London recorded more vacancies than schools elsewhere in England. The problems, although not confined to the secondary sector are worse in that sector than in the primary school sector, where pupil numbers are now falling across much of England.

Of more interest that what happened in 2022 for most readers of this blog is, no doubt, my predictions for 2023. Based upon the trainee numbers in the DfE’s ITT census as a starting point, and abstracting those trainees already in the classroom and less likely to be job hunting, at least for a teaching post, for September 2023 from the totals, the numbers must be of concern.

After factoring in non-completions; those seeking posts in Sixth Form Colleges or elsewhere in publicly funded education outside of schools; and allowing for the demand form the private school sector, especially in the south of England, where a large number of such schools are concentrated; the final numbers may be the worst this century.

If the London region is taken as an example, using 2022 vacancies as the basis for the calculations, and assuming 40% of classroom teacher vacancies are taken by new entrants to the profession, with the remainder filled by those returning to teaching or switching schools, then some subjects do not have enough trainees to meet the possible demand from London’s schools

Open MarketLondon Vacancies in 202240% Vacancies from TraineesRemaining Trainees % Open Market Remaining
Business Studies164837335-171-104%
Religious Education249715286-37-15%
Computing304818327-23-8%
Music2285112042410%
Design & Technology3728293324011%
Physics3667442986819%
Geography52391436615730%
Modern Languages60099039620434%
Biology49574429819740%
English1214162965256246%
Chemistry64474429834654%
Mathematics1467151860786059%
Art & Design44043517426660%
History95040216178983%
Physical Education129522690120593%
Source TeachVac http://www.teachvac.co.uk

Business Studies, religious education and computing might be the most worrying subjects for London schools seeking to fill vacancies. Of course, a school advertising in January will always fare better than one looking for an unexpected appointment for January 2024 late in the autumn, but schools should not need to be worrying about filling vacancies advertised as early as February this year.

TeachVac is increasing its registers of teachers looking to be matched to jobs, and secondary schools wanting their vacancies matched can sign up for £10 a week (£500 per year plus VAT) or miss out on this resource that aims to match 15,000 teachers this year. Sign up at www.teachvac.co.uk