Teacher Supply: is it helping improve the education of White Working Class children?

Posted on November 10, 2026 by John Howson

I am grateful to The Inquiry into White Working Class Educational Outcomes Publications | Educational Outcomes for creating a list of routes into teaching over the past quarter century along with support programmes for both new and existing teachers.

I have published their list below. I think that there was also a programme called ‘troops to teachers’ and, in addition, some initiatives in relation to foreign nations -certainly Micheal Gove extended QTS to those qualified in the USA and some commonwealth countries. I think that a later Conservative government added to Michael Gove’s original list.

Here is their list

Key programmes

Programme Dates Summary

National Professional Qualifications (NPQ) 1997 onwards Accredited professional development for teachers and school leaders, refreshed in 2021 with fully funded places in priority schools.

Fast Track Teaching Programme 2001-2009 Accelerated leadership pathway for promising early-career teachers, aiming to boost retention and progression to promoted posts. In 2009, the government cited the changing educational context as reason for the termination of the programme.

Teach First 2003 onwards Charity recruiting high-achieving graduates to teach in disadvantaged schools for a minimum of two years, combining on the-job training with leadership development.

School Direct 2012 onwards School-led route into initial teacher training (ITT), run in partnership with accredited training providers, allowing schools to shape their own recruitment.

Now Teach 2016 onwards Charity supporting mid- and late-career professionals to retrain as teachers, with tailored induction and mentoring.

Early Career Payments 2018 – 2025 Financial incentives for early-career teachers in shortage subjects (e.g. maths, sciences, languages), especially in challenging areas. Replaced in 2025 by new incentives.

Flexible Working Pilots 2019 Trials exploring how schools can embed flexible working arrangements to improve retention.

Early Career Framework (ECF) 2021 onwards Statutory two-year induction with structured professional development, mentoring, and reduced teaching loads for new teachers.

Staff Wellbeing Charter 2021 onwards Voluntary framework committing schools and the DfE to actions that promote staff wellbeing.

Levelling Up Premium 2022 onwards Retention payment scheme for specialist teachers in key subjects in disadvantaged areas (now ‘Targeted Retention Incentive Payments’). wwci-policy-review.pdf

The report commented that ‘While these measures have sometimes focused on schools serving disadvantaged pupils, there has been no explicit targeting of white working-class communities. Impacts have therefore been indirect, shaped by the geographical distribution of incentives and recruitment programmes.’

And that

‘Addressing underperformance among white working-class pupils will require sustained investment in teacher recruitment and retention in the communities where they are concentrated, alongside professional development that equips staff to engage with the specific cultural and socio-economic contexts of their pupils.’

Whether the fracturing of our school system into many myriad academy chains and smaller local authorities beset by reorganisation challenges has helped improve the education of White Working Class pupils is a moot point.

However, I am aware that a marketplace orientated system for the teacher labour market, with only some small intervention at the staff a person’s career into teaching doesn’t seem to have made much of an indent into the problem outside of London, where Teach First and funding that has allowed for better staffing ratios than elsewhere has helped improve outcomes for all.

There were couple of failed initiative sin the time David Laws was Minister of State around creating a cadre of teachers to be offered to schools that could perform better, but those programmes never went anywhere. No more free market for teachers | John Howson

How to improve the outcomes for this in rural areas – whether inland or on the cast – and some urban areas outside of London is a key challenge for this government. How it handles that challenge in relation to teacher supply will be interesting to watch.

AI and schools: progress since 2018

Posted on November 8, 2026 by John Howson

Sometimes a visitor to this blog can uncover one of the 1,750 posts that I have completely forgotten about. One such as a post about Artificial Intelligence (AI) that I wrote eight years ago after a Report from a House of Lords Committee AI and education – The view of the House of Lords Committee | John Howson

The DfE at that time were talking about creating some 8,000 new teachers of computing. Isn’t it interesting how often politicians offer up the promise of large number of new teachers with no funding to allow schools to employ them, even if they could be recruited (think of the present government’s 6,500 promise).

In November 2018, according to the DfE’s Workforce Census, School workforce in England: November 2018 – GOV.UK there were 3,954 teachers of computing working in state secondary schools. Together they taught some 31,190 hours, mostly at Key Stage 3 (3,954) with only 964 hours at Key Stage 5, but 2,289 at Key Stage 4.

Fast forward to the 2025 Workforce Census, and the number of those teaching computing had increased to 7,784. Together they delivered some 64,923 hours of learning. An impressive increase, even against the increase in the number of pupils over the same period.

However, using the DfE’s methodology of counting teachers and subjects, the overall hours taught has changed little between 2018 and 2025, from 3,550,691 in 2018 to 3,553,755 in 2025. Overall teacher numbers teaching across all subjects also remained remarkably statics at 219,269 in 2018 and 219,296 in 2025.

Against these numbers, the increase in teachers of computing, or computer science as it is now termed, is noteworthy, at an increase 3,730, doubling the number of teachers teaching the subject. However, it is still 50% below the 2018 number of 8,000 additional teachers put forward by the DfE.

In my original 2018 post, I also wondered about the moral and ethical issues surrounding AI. I wrote the following:

‘The Committee recognised that the 2014 change to the curriculum on IT in schools across England needed time to take effect. However, the removal of any consideration of moral and ethical issues to do with social media and digital technology from the curriculum was regretted by some witnesses; no doubt more so over recent weeks as the various concerns over social media and the handling of personal data have emerged. Personally, I think the downgrading of Religious Education at examination level, where there was a real opportunity to discuss issues of ethic, morality and philosophy, by excluding the subject from the EBacc was a mistake.’

The hours taught for religious education have increased since then; rising from 117,408 in 2018 to 117,772 in 2025. The percentage of teachers with a relevant post ‘A’ qualification has also increased from 64% to 81.5% for computer science – as it is now termed – and from 54.1% to 72% for religious education.

However, it is worth noting that at Key Stage 3, where pupils are introduced to subjects, the percentage of qualified teachers in 2025 was still only 76.1% for computer science and even lower at 65.9% for religious education.

It seems the foundations of both subjects in secondary schools are still being taught by those least likely to have a qualification in the subject. Whether or not they are also trained teachers isn’t possible to determine form the simple Teacher Workforce publications.

One wonders what the DfE’s policy for both subjects is in the Curriculum Review. Both are key subjects for our modern age, and I would like to thank the reader that reminded me of my 2018 post, and thus, prompted this one.

Oxford Teacher Services Ltd: new owners

Posted on November 3, 2026 by John Howson

Way back in 2013, I set up Oxford Teacher Services Ltd to show how the simple collection of teacher vacancies then being published by schools on their web sites could significantly reduce the cost of advertising teacher vacancies. Eventually, the DfE created a vacancy website that although not perfect did help change the dynamics of teacher recruitment advertising.

Post covid, and my appointment as cabinet member for children’s services in Oxfordshire between 2023 and 2025, I wound down the work of Oxford Teacher Services, although I did manage to help the UAE with their concerns about a teacher supply model, and continued monitoring both ITT and teacher labour market statistics.

Yesterday, Oxford Teacher Services Ltd was sold to OXIE Holdings Ltd. This company is in the forefront of dealing with aspects of AI in schooling, and also the development of ‘drone football’.

You can find out more about OXIE at Oxford Innovative Education – Empowering critical minds and future voices and

‘drone football’ at Drone Football – Oxford Innovative Education

And you can contact them at: bbone@oxie.org.uk

I believe that ‘drone football’ has a great future. Why not book a trial event for a day, for your school, company or youth group. ‘Drone football’ can also be booked for birthday parties. ‘Drone football’ will also be showcased at a number of science fairs over the next year.

I will still continue to monitor labour market data through dataforeducation, and will publish a report early in January on headteacher turnover in England during the 2025-26 school year. If you would like more information about that work, please contact me either through the comment section or by email.

I would like to thank everyone that has helped make the work of Oxford Teacher Services Ltd possible during the past 13 years, and I wish it well for the future as a part of OXIE holdings.

Teacher Preparation Courses: coping well with the latest reforms

Posted on November 2, 2026 by John Howson

Initial teacher preparation courses have been through a long period of regular government reforms, the most recent period starting with the Carter Review of 2015. The most recent changes are well documented in a new interim evaluation, commissioned by the DfE Evaluation of reforms to initial teacher training in England: wave 1 interim report

However, since the mid-1980s, firstly with CATE (The Council for Teacher Education) then the TTA (Teacher Training Agency, and its successors) national government has increasingly intervened in the process of teacher preparation, going beyond its traditional role of funding places and general oversight of the curriculum, to the present-day highly regulated regime that supports three main routes into teaching: undergraduate (declining in importance) postgraduate (still the main routes into teaching) and what the report describes as School Direct (postgraduate salaried schemes, most notably Teach First).

The overall conclusion of this interim report was that

‘ the majority of respondents (71%) mentioned being satisfied or very satisfied with the ITT. Levels of satisfaction ranged by 7 percentage points across regions; the South East reported the highest satisfaction (75% satisfied or very satisfied), while the East of England reported the lowest (68% satisfied or very satisfied). Satisfaction levels by phase of ITT ranged by 4 percentage points, with 74% of respondents in the primary phase and 70% in the secondary phase reporting that they were satisfied or very satisfied.’ Page 28

Generally, trainees felt ready to teach

‘Additionally, 81% of trainees reported feeling, or expecting to feel, ready or very ready to teach, either at the time of the survey (if already qualified) or by the end of their ITT programme (for those currently in training),…. In contrast, 8% reported feeling unready or very unready. These figures varied by 10 percentage points across regions. London reported the highest proportion of trainees feeling ready or very ready to teach (85%), while the East of England reported the lowest (75%). The highest proportions of trainees reporting feeling unready or very unready were in the East of England and the North East (both 11%), while London reported the lowest proportion (4%). Differences by ITT phase were small. Among secondary trainees, 82% reported feeling ready or very ready to teach, compared with 79% of primary trainees.’

It would be interesting to unpack these outcomes by the different age-groups entering training: new graduate, younger career changers and older career movers. Responses were dominated by the HEI sector, accounting for nearly two-thirds of responses, with trainees in SCITTs also well represented : ‘59% of respondents reported that their ITT was delivered or is being delivered by a HEI, while 36% reported that it was delivered by a SCITT provider. The remaining 5% of respondents selected other delivery options, each accounting for 1% or less.’

If it is accepted that there should be a national coherent approach to teacher preparation, and that quality should be of the highest possible standard, then some of the regional differences might be worth exploring further.

Both the North East, the smallest region in terms of ITT, and the North West fared less well than London and the more southern regions in some outcomes. Understanding why, and whether this is just the result of small numbers and not just issues with provision, might be a useful step forward. Policy-makers look at headlines and one trainee in a particular school and training in a particular subject might skew some of the percentages. This would be of concern were this data be for subjects where recruitment was especially challenging during the survey period.

As ever, there is a lot more of interest behind the headlines.

Might there be another December general election?

Posted on October 21, 2026 by John Howson

The present opinion polling might make the possibility of a snap December general election more likely, especially if the Burnham Bounce continues, and both Reform and the Green Party drift downward in the polls. As a result, other Parties will be probably putting together a skeleton manifesto, just in case an election is called.

Here are my suggestions about an education section of a manifesto to the Liberal Democrats, the Party I support. These are my own views, and some are more controversial than others.

Raise free travel to school from 16 to 18

At present there is free travel to nearest school if over three miles, up to age 16. In London, young people aged 16-17 can get free and discounted travel on all our transport services with a Zip Oyster photocard. 16+ Zip Oyster photocard – Transport for London In Birmingham, 16-18s get discounted tickets to and from an education establishment in term-time. In Manchester, Our Pass gives 16-18 year olds free bus travel* across Greater Manchester and Our Pass is not just a bus travel card – cardholders will have access to lots of opportunities, experiences and benefits.

Young people living outside the large urban areas deserve the same rights to access education.

An expert teacher in every classroom

Parents and pupils expect their teachers to be properly trained. Many are not, especially in schools in rural areas and disadvantaged areas where teacher recruitment is challenging. The policy would only grant certification (QTS) for limited areas, where a teacher has the appropriate knowledge and qualification. A school could use a teacher to cover a vacancy or long-term absence, but such teachers, if not qualified, would need emergency accreditation. This would last for no more than two school-years. During that time, the staff member would be expected to undertake appropriate certification through professional development paid for by the school. The DfE would be expected to publish a report to parliament each year on the use of uncertified teachers by schools. The term ‘teacher’ would be come a recognised reserved occupation term, in line with the situation on other professions

Free School lunches to eleven

All primary school children, and those in middle schools, would be entitled to a free school lunch. This extends the policy of free school meals for infant school pupils introduced by the coalition and announced at the Lib Dems Conference in Glasgow.

Renewable energy for all schools

Local areas would be offered matching funding for solar, wind and heat pump installations with the remainder of the funding coming from a ‘social’ bond’ open to local residents in the first instance. Rural schools would be encouraged to become energy resilience hubs for their local community, providing emergency power sources when the grid isn’t functioning because of storms, flooding or other reasons. Rural areas already generate power for other parts of the country. This scheme would ensure a local payment scheme. As well as providing power for the school.

The curriculum

Any curriculum change would be fully staffed. The curriculum would ensure all pupils received the basic skills and knowledge, supported by funding to ensure all pupils, even with special needs, can achieve their maximum potential. The secondary school curriculum would reflect that fact that young people entering school in 2026 will be working into the 2080s.

Testing

Public examinations at sixteen would be replaced by cheaper national tests based upon sampling techniques. Pupil’s progress should not be determined by rigid rules. There would be a focus on raising standards by ensuring well-qualified teachers.

Testing for national standards would be retained at the end of Key Stage 2 and Foundation Stage to help identify the best use of resources.

School Funding

In a period of declining school rolls, and parental choice, funding schools on a per-pupil basis risks under-funding disadvantaged schools. This is especially the case in areas where there are selective schools. Many of these schools are over-capacity, while the non-selective schools are required to function well below capacity, and with less funding as a result.

All schools should be funded to a level where they can deliver an appropriate curriculum. Improvements in technology should allow for actual salary funding for schools, rather than the average salary funding that disadvantages some schools with experienced staff, but falling rolls.

There is a case to be made for a universal secondary school and college system to meet the needs of all 11-18 year-olds

Effective post-sixteen education

Consideration would be given to how pupils could be offered a choice of routes and subjects that best meet their needs in a planned manner. With falling rolls, not all schools and colleges would be able to offer and effective curriculum for all.

Enjoying school

Most primary school children enjoy school, but attendance and enjoyment both drop off between the ages of 11-16. The current DfE opinion polling would be widened to take more account of the views of young people, and the challenges they face in a rapidly changing society where they will be voters before they complete their education, if the voting age is reduced to 16, as we support.

Every child has a right to education

The state does not require children to attend school, but to be educated. Home Schooled children often receive a good quality education, but along with those educated in private schools there should be a system of inspection and support. No child should ever be without a school. A virtual school for pupils either moving into an area or excluded from a school should enrol such pupils from day one to ensure no break in their education. Much can be learnt from the best of the virtual schools for looked-after young people.

Inspection

Ofsted needs reform, but to underpin a national assessment of schools there needs to be a local framework of advisors and inspectors that can support and encourage teachers and school leaders. No school should be surprised by any national assessment if it has been working effectively with local teams drawn from school middle and senior leaders. Such teams also provide a career path for those interested in progressing carers in teaching and learning and not school leadership.

An education system for all

Falling rolls, a fractured operating system of academy trusts, local authorities and dioceses does not make for an effective local education system. Decisions are haphazard, and may create competing and poorly funded outcomes. In the short-term the current Schools Forums would be reconstituted as a local education planning forum to ensure resources are not wasted, and young people can receive the best outcomes from their time in education.

A new deal for teachers

Teachers’ contracts have barely changed in the last 60 years, apart from the directed working time of 1,265 hours for those not on the leadership scale. While other graduates now expect four weeks paid holiday, up to 10 public holidays, and not to work between Christmas and after New Year, teachers still work an employer-driven flexi-time, where periods when children are not in school are expected to compensate for long-hours worked during term-time. Such an imbalance makes recruiting staff, and especially graduates challenging and needs a comprehensive review by the School Teachers Review Body (STRB).

Applications to teach: a review of the data

Posted on October 9, 2026 by John Howson

When I started this blog, way back in 2013, universities were out of favour with the government as a route to train teachers. Indeed, Mr Gove once famously used the term ‘blob’ Am I a blob? | John Howson Now, he was referring to local government, but he might just as well have been fingering university departments of education, such was his dislike of their approach to preparing teachers. He much preferred schools as the location for those learning to become a teacher.

Some years later, this blog reviewed the balance between applications to different routes into teaching. I expressed my views in a post in . A thank you to Schools of Education | John Howson

In that post, I reviewed the percentages for applications in May over four years, as derived from the then UCAS monthly data reports. This was before the DfE took over recruitment through their portal

So here are the percentages for applications in May over the four years reported in that post and as derived from the then UCAS monthly data reports.

Primary	2015	2016	2017	2018
HE	51	45	48	47
SCITT	8	9	9	10
SDFEE	24	27	25	25
SDSAL	17	19	18	18

Secondary	2015	2016	2017	2018
HE	51	47	50	52
SCITT	8	10	11	12
SDFEE	29	31	29	28
SDSAL	12	12	9	7

I thought it might be interesting to see what has happened since the years of the covid pandemic. (I don’t have 2018-2020 data easily to hand). The monthly data for applications is no longer split between primary and secondary, one of a few unhelpful changes to the data presentation. But, at least, there is still monthly data available, and that data has provided fertile grounds for this blog over the years.

The first point to note, when comparing the two tables, is the change in categories, with the ‘Fee’ route disappearing and the ‘Lead Provider’ route replacing it. The ‘teaching degree apprenticeship’ has also appeared, and is now in its second year of applications. Will its significance grow over the next few years?

ALL	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
HE	48	41	38	40	42
SCITT	14	18	16	20	17
Fee Route	28
SALARIED	6	7	11	9	8
LEAD PROV	0	30	28	21	19
PG T APP	4	5	7	8	12
T DeGRE APP	0	0	0	1	2

It is also worth noting that these are percentages. As a result, they hide the fact that in the period covered by the earlier table, pupil rolls were on the increase, and thus more teachers needed to be trained. Will falling rolls, fewer teachers need to be trained currently. Whether that has affected the view of teaching as a career, is of no immediate concern in this post, as the basis is the percentages applying for each route.

Apprenticeship have now secured a strong foothold in the minds of would-be teachers, accounting for 14% or nearly one in seven applications by the end of May 2026. School Centred Courses (SCITTs) have been around for more than 30 years now. In May 2025 they accounted for 25% of applications, but have fallen back in 2026 to 17% this May.

The various salaried routes saw an increase in applications after covid, but, possibly because of the graduate apprenticeship route, their percentage seems to be in decline from the 11% of applications reached in May 2024 to eight per cent in 2026.

Seemingly, higher education is the main loser; down from 48% in 2022 to 42% in May 2026. This is nine percentage points below its position in May 2015, when higher education accounted for 52% of applications. I suspect that a significant percentage of the decline is down to fewer primary places being on offer in the past few years. As those courses normally ‘fill’ with offers early in the cycle, fewer places will have generated fewer applications. The four-percentage point gain over the past two years, may be down to an increase in ‘rest of the world’ applicants who may know more about universities than the other routes on offer. The DfE no doubt has that data, but it is not shared in the monthly statistics.

Where to place the Provider Led courses? Are they a direct transfer from the former School Direct Fee route, or something different. Either way, either their popularity or their availability to applicants, has seen their percentage decline quite steeply in recent years.

The data in this post is based upon trends in applications. At some point in the future, I will look at trends in ‘offer’ and actual attendance, as measured by the ITT Census, produced each December by the DfE. The post also uses the month of May data, not the endo f the round .This is because by May some subjects and the primary sector are often not accepting any more applications, so May is a good time to review the application round when the majority of courses have been accepting applications.

For now, the universities are still the leading route into teaching, but will vice chancellors still want to play in this game as they consider their financial futures, especially if targets, and thus income will be reducing because of falling rolls? Smaller groups are often uneconomic, and subsidy is not the name of the game in higher education at present. Interesting times.

Are dashboards useful?

Posted on October 3, 2026 by John Howson

LinkedIn invited me to try their new lead generation tool. I asked it to look at this blog, and it came up with a number of possible future posts I could use to gather new readers, all generated by AI (artificial intelligence) from some key prompts and audience identifies that I provided.

It is an interesting piece, although, I have altered (added in italics) some additional text. I would be fascinated to hear what readers think.

AI starts here

A dashboard showing applications up fifteen percent across the board is one of the easier things in education data to misread, and can be one of the more expensive in terms of outcomes.

If you consider recruitment to Initial Teacher Training (ITT) as an example. The structural reason that a dashboard can be misleading is that an ITT recruitment dashboard aggregates things that behave nothing like each other. Domestic and international applicants, candidates with and without visa routes, subjects with entirely different seasonal curves, and applications that will convert at wildly different rates all sit inside the same headline number. The dashboard is honest. The aggregation is what misleads.

Three patterns come up repeatedly:

– Treating a total as a common trend, when a surge in one subject or one applicant group is carrying the whole figure

– Reading application volume as recruitment, when the gap between offer, acceptance and enrolment is where subjects like physics may be very different to that in Classics.

– Comparing the current month to the same month last year without checking whether the policy environment, bursary levels or visa rules changed in between

However, the second-order effect is the one that causes real damage. When a headline figure looks healthy in December, the case for intervention weakens, and by the time the subject-level picture is unambiguous in March the levers that would have mattered, bursary announcements, provider allocations, targeted campaigns, may have already closed for the cycle.

Intervention decisions are can risk being made against an aggregated number at exactly the point in the year when disaggregation would tell you, the reader, something much more useful.

The key takeaway: the dashboard rarely gets the arithmetic wrong. However, all too often it might be read as a single story when, in reality, it is holding four or five different stories, and the one that matters is usually the quietest.

AI ends here.

My message that isn’t in the AI piece, is, if designing a dashboard, first know what is its purpose. If you don’t know what it might reveal, check regularly for trends. As an example: when I first started counting headteacher vacancies in the 1980s, I didn’t know that church schools will be more likely to re-advertise their vacancy than non-faith schools. When looking at teacher vacancies; I didn’t know the rhythm for temporary and maternity leave vacancies being advertised, but I had a hunch, and added the field to the database. As a result, I would also say, collect as much data as you can, when constructing a database, as you might not know what it will tell you.

So, thanks to AI for simulating this post, and quickly offering me some thoughts about many posts I had already written. Does this make this a genuine post or an artificial one?

Why the ITT Census should never be a surprise

Posted on October 2, 2026 by John Howson

How early in the annual ITT recruitment cycle can you confidentially predict the outcome? I asked myself this question when, earlier today, someone looked up a post on the blog that I wrote in February 2022. Not much of a Christmas Present | John Howson

Based on the data from the end of January 2022 for courses starting that autumn, I wrote the following

‘In summary, there is a degree of caution about the data in this monthly release, but there is almost certainly work still to be done to avoid another year of under-recruitment and a tight labour market for schools in 2023’

This was my cautious way of saying that a further year of trouble lay ahead. Even I, at that time, could not have predicted how far away from the targets the outcome for that year’s recruitment was to be. Of course, the targets may well have been too high, just as the current year’s targets may well be too low in some subjects. Nevertheless, recruitment outcomes were brutal. See STEM subjects ‘late recruiters’? | John Howson and More on the ITT census | John Howson as well as a number of other posts during December 2022 discussing the ITT census and its findings.

Over the course of more than 25 years studying monthly trends in recruitment, I believe that by the end of February in a normal year – Covid pandemic years being an unforeseen exception – it is possible to predict trends from that month’s data. This is because, by then, applications from final year undergraduates and discontented new graduates are in decline as finalists concentrate on exams and final coursework to be replaced for the next six month much more by career switchers.

Crucially, in Jue and July new graduates that haven’t found a job may swell the number of applicants when there is a tight graduate labour market. If there are plenty of graduate jobs, and the application rate until June has been subdued, a late bounce is unlikely.

In the past three years, application data has been made more challenging to interpret because of the large influx of applicants from ‘the rest of the world’. These applicants may account for as much as 25% of the total number of applicants. Even if they are made ‘offers’ will they obtain the necessary visa to come to England, and then will they be allowed to teacher here? So far, this is an issue in some subjects, but not across the board.

Should the DfE react to poor recruitment data? An interesting question. They did react in 2013 in July when I ventured to suggest some subjects would not hit their targets. You can read what happened in my book ‘teachers, schools and their vies on education’ available either n Amazon or directly from myself via the comments section.

Suffice to say, I think that was a face-saving exercise, but the substantive point remains. Can and should the government intervene in a cycle to help recruitment. Hopefully, with falling rolls and the threat of AI, they won’t need to. However, it is worth remembering that the Training Grant was announced in a March, and had an immediate effect upon recruitment.

Teacher shortages are commonplace across the globe

Posted on September 30, 2026 by John Howson

OECD has today published the 2026 edition of ‘Education Indicators At a glance’. Education at a Glance 2026 | OECD The section on teacher shortages has already received several comments on LinkedIn and elsewhere. I though I might look in some detail about the United Kingdom section in the ’country report’ about teacher shortages.

On the face of it, the UK fares well compared with other countries. Apparently, only 2.9% of teachers in state schools are not fully qualified. I wonder what the percentage would be for Further Education?

Teacher shortages

Shortages of skilled workers have affected many sectors across the OECD in recent years, and the teaching profession is no exception. Teacher shortages manifest in different ways across education systems: in some countries, a lack of fully qualified teachers is reflected in a higher share of non-fully qualified staff, while in others a significant number of teaching positions remain unfilled.
Non-fully qualified teachers refer to teachers who do not yet meet all the requirements to be recognised as fully qualified teachers under national regulations. In most countries, they either possess the required academic qualifications but lack mandatory certification or teacher training, have completed the required teacher training but do not hold the required academic qualifications, or lack both. In England, 2.9% of all primary and secondary teachers in public institutions were not fully qualified in 2024/25, below the OECD average of 9.1% (Figure 1).
Countries use two main approaches to measuring teacher shortages. The first approach estimates shortages before or at the start of the school year based on projected recruitment needs. The second approach measures shortages by counting the number of positions that remain vacant at the start of the school year or shortly after it begins. England uses the second approach, and 0.6% of all teaching positions in public secondary education were unfilled at or shortly before the start of the 2024/25 school year (Table 2). Education at a Glance 2026: United Kingdom

However, it is important to delve into what’ ‘Qualified’ actually means.

In England, possession of QTS allows teachers, not, interestingly, a reserved occupation term, to teach anything to anyone at any level. For the past 25 years, I have been asking for QTS to be linked to phase and subject studied in ITT. However, apart from in the Liberal Democrat Manifesto in 20025, there has been no political appetite to limit QTS in any way. I still think that is a mistake. The over-supply of PE and history teachers has helped keep school fully staffed during the recruitment crisis that started way back in 2013, but may now be coming to an end.

It is also worth pointing out that schools can be fully staffed in England by adjusting the curriculum, and dropping subjects they cannot staff. The other alternative, as OECD noted, is using less well-qualified staff. The figures on combined versus separate science at Key Stage 4 between different types of school are stark. The former can be staffed with teachers with less subject knowledge than the latter. If you don’t pass the 11+, you probably won’t study Physics as a subject by KS4 | John Howson

I was surprised that OECD appears to have accepted the DfE data at face value and not to have a definition that would deal with the fact that QTS is so broad as to be meaningless at both primary and secondary school levels.

No song for Labour?

Posted on September 29, 2026 by John Howson

Traditionally, the Labour Party conference used to end in song. Historically, it was the Red Fag that was belted out by delegates, many of whom had learn to sing both in school and in church, chapel or other place of worship. Go to a funeral or a wedding these days, and singing is often either desultory or non-existent, except for a few brave souls. Partly, this is down to the decline in attendance at organised worship, but partly, especially for weddings, it may be down to the decline in music teaching in schools.

Yesterday, I was told of an initiative to revive school choirs https://www.cloreduffield.org.uk/clore-school-choirs-and-singing-programme

However, it will take more than a few philanthropic gestures to revive music in our schools. The subject has now reached a crisis point in state schools across England. I don’t expect the number of new trainees to meet the DfE’s target this autumn. Sadly, It is not as if missing the ITT target in music is something new.

ITT census	% of target recruited
2019/20	80
2020/21	122
2021/22	71
2022/23	62
2023/24	27
2024/25	40
2025/25	65

My expectation for the 2025/26 outcome is somewhere between 80-85% based upon September acceptance numbers through the DfE recruitment to ITT portal data published yesterday – see my previous two posts for more details.

The improvement to around 80% is because the target for this September has been reduced by the DfE from a high of 820 trainees needed in 2024/25, to a new low of 260 two years later for the 2026/27 intake.

ITT target	2021/22	2022/23	2023/24	2024/25	2025/26	2026/27
Music	540	470	790	820	565	260

In part, the reduction in the target is the result of not adding unfilled places in one year to the target for the next year. That was a policy I have always said, since it was tried in the 1990s, was a mistake. Schools cannot absorb more than a certain number of teachers each year, and they always start the autumn term fully staffed for the timetable that they have produced.

Change the timetable, and cut an examination subject, and a school is unlikely to offer it the following year in its options package, especially if it might not recruit a teacher needed to teach the subject, and someone else might need to make way for the restoration of the subject to the timetable. Once gone, it is hard to recover without a change in policy.

Of course, falling rolls will mean a reduction in demand for teachers, assuming school funding doesn’t improve – quite likely, and that retention remains at current levels – also likely with a faltering graduate job market. But is the cut to 260 places for music, a cut that would certainly justify the removal of the bursary sensible? The DfE seem to think so, after having run the Teacher Supply Model, based upon current input data. I am less sure.

So far in 2026, there have been over 500 vacancies for teachers of music and heads of department, so by year-end in December that total might have increased to somewhere between 550-600 vacancies across the year in state schools.

How does that compare to possible supply? In 2025/26 the ITT census recorded 367 music trainees. Allowing for wastage, both in-course and post-course that might reduce the available number to less than 300 or about 50% of vacancies, leaving the other 300 to be filled from returners or other sources.

	Music	ITT census
	2013/14	380
	2014/15	375
	2015/16	355
	2016/17	355
	2017/18	295
	2018/19	300
	2019/20	320
	2020/21	483
	2021/22	390
	2022/23	301
	2023/24	214
	2024/25	345
	2025/26	367
estimate	2026/27	240

With the reduced target of 260, the likely outcome, based on the September offer number is for around 230 trainees at the end of the year, with less than 200 available to work in the state sector in 2027, based on past trends.

Vacancies would need to fall by around 200 in 2027 for that number of new teachers to take up half the vacancies. If vacancies were to remain at 600, admittedly an upper estimate, then new entrants to the labour market might only be able to fill a third of vacancies. This would be grim news, and leaves me with two conclusions

The Teacher Supply Model has cut targets too far too soon

The removal of the bursary has affected recruitment, but the effect has been masked by the cut to the ITT target.

In the real world, unless I am wrong, fewer children will study music from September 2027/28 onwards – that’s the next school-year.

Is that what the government wants? I don’t know, but I do know that there is a risk of music disappearing as an examination subject unless more music teachers are recruited.

I was told, an unverified number, of just 190 entries in the North East Region for music at A level this summer. How many of those were from private schools? I will see what I can find out from the published statistics.

Music is changing, but that change won’t happen nor will music continue to support growth in the economy through orchestras, popular music and other trends if we let music die in the majority of state schools.

A world where music is created by Artificial Intelligence and not by humans, will be a less enjoyable place in which to live.

John Howson

Education and the numbers that affect what happens

Tag Archives: teacher supply