Tag Archives: learning

Teacher Supply: is it helping improve the education of White Working Class children?

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I am grateful to The Inquiry into White Working Class Educational Outcomes Publications | Educational Outcomes for creating a list of routes into teaching over the past quarter century along with support programmes for both new and existing teachers.

I have published their list below. I think that there was also a programme called ‘troops to teachers’ and, in addition, some initiatives in relation to foreign nations  -certainly Micheal Gove extended QTS to those qualified in the USA and some commonwealth countries. I think that a later Conservative government added to Michael Gove’s original list.

Here is their list

Key programmes

Programme Dates Summary

National Professional Qualifications (NPQ) 1997 onwards Accredited professional development for teachers and school leaders, refreshed in 2021 with fully funded places in priority schools.

Fast Track Teaching Programme 2001-2009 Accelerated leadership pathway for promising early-career teachers, aiming to boost retention and progression to promoted posts. In 2009, the government cited the changing educational context as reason for the termination of the programme.

Teach First 2003 onwards Charity recruiting high-achieving graduates to teach in disadvantaged schools for a minimum of two years, combining on the-job training with leadership development.

School Direct 2012 onwards School-led route into initial teacher training (ITT), run in partnership with accredited training providers, allowing schools to shape their own recruitment.

Now Teach 2016 onwards Charity supporting mid- and late-career professionals to retrain as teachers, with tailored induction and mentoring.

Early Career Payments 2018 – 2025 Financial incentives for early-career teachers in shortage subjects (e.g. maths, sciences, languages), especially in challenging areas. Replaced in 2025 by new incentives.

Flexible Working Pilots 2019 Trials exploring how schools can embed flexible working arrangements to improve retention.

Early Career Framework (ECF) 2021 onwards Statutory two-year induction with structured professional development, mentoring, and reduced teaching loads for new teachers.

Staff Wellbeing Charter 2021 onwards Voluntary framework committing schools and the DfE to actions that promote staff wellbeing.

Levelling Up Premium 2022 onwards Retention payment scheme for specialist teachers in key subjects in disadvantaged areas (now ‘Targeted Retention Incentive Payments’). wwci-policy-review.pdf

The report commented that ‘While these measures have sometimes focused on schools serving disadvantaged pupils, there has been no explicit targeting of white working-class communities. Impacts have therefore been indirect, shaped by the geographical distribution of incentives and recruitment programmes.’

And that

‘Addressing underperformance among white working-class pupils will require sustained investment in teacher recruitment and retention in the communities where they are concentrated, alongside professional development that equips staff to engage with the specific cultural and socio-economic contexts of their pupils.’

Whether the fracturing of our school system into many myriad academy chains and smaller local authorities beset by reorganisation challenges has helped improve the education of White Working Class pupils is a moot point.

However, I am aware that a marketplace orientated system for the teacher labour market, with only some small intervention at the staff  a person’s career into teaching doesn’t seem to have made much of an indent into the problem outside of London, where Teach First and funding that has allowed for better staffing ratios than elsewhere has helped improve outcomes for all.

There were  couple of failed initiative sin the time David Laws was Minister of State around creating a cadre of teachers to be offered to schools that could perform better, but those programmes never went anywhere. No more free market for teachers | John Howson

How to improve the outcomes for this in rural areas – whether inland or on the cast – and some urban areas outside of London is a key challenge for this government. How it handles that challenge in relation to teacher supply will be interesting to watch.

AI and schools: progress since 2018

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Sometimes a visitor to this blog can uncover one of the 1,750 posts that I have completely forgotten about. One such as a post about Artificial Intelligence (AI) that I wrote eight years ago after a Report from a House of Lords Committee AI and education – The view of the House of Lords Committee | John Howson

The DfE at that time were talking about creating some 8,000 new teachers of computing. Isn’t it  interesting how often politicians offer up the promise of large number of new teachers with no funding to allow schools to employ them, even if they could be recruited (think of the present government’s 6,500 promise).

In November 2018, according to the DfE’s Workforce Census, School workforce in England: November 2018 – GOV.UK there were 3,954 teachers of computing working in state secondary schools. Together they taught some 31,190 hours, mostly at Key Stage 3 (3,954) with only 964 hours at Key Stage 5, but 2,289 at Key Stage 4.

Fast forward to the 2025 Workforce Census, and the number of those teaching computing had increased to 7,784. Together they delivered some 64,923 hours of learning. An impressive increase, even against the increase in the number of pupils over the same period.

However, using the DfE’s methodology of counting teachers and subjects, the overall hours taught has changed little between 2018 and 2025, from 3,550,691 in 2018 to 3,553,755 in 2025. Overall teacher numbers teaching across all subjects also remained remarkably statics at 219,269 in 2018 and 219,296 in 2025.

Against these numbers, the increase in teachers of computing, or computer science as it is now termed, is noteworthy, at an increase 3,730, doubling the number of teachers teaching the subject. However, it is still 50% below the 2018 number of 8,000 additional teachers put forward by the DfE.

In my original 2018 post, I also wondered about the moral and ethical issues surrounding AI. I wrote the following:

‘The Committee recognised that the 2014 change to the curriculum on IT in schools across England needed time to take effect. However, the removal of any consideration of moral and ethical issues to do with social media and digital technology from the curriculum was regretted by some witnesses; no doubt more so over recent weeks as the various concerns over social media and the handling of personal data have emerged. Personally, I think the downgrading of Religious Education at examination level, where there was a real opportunity to discuss issues of ethic, morality and philosophy, by excluding the subject from the EBacc was a mistake.’

The hours taught for religious education have increased since then; rising from 117,408 in 2018 to 117,772 in 2025.  The percentage of teachers with a relevant post ‘A’ qualification has also increased from 64% to 81.5% for computer science – as it is now termed – and from 54.1% to 72% for religious education.

However, it is worth noting that at Key Stage 3, where pupils are introduced to subjects, the percentage of qualified teachers in 2025 was still only 76.1% for computer science and even lower at 65.9% for religious education.

It seems the foundations of both subjects in secondary schools are still being taught by those least likely to have a qualification in the subject. Whether or not they are also trained teachers isn’t possible to determine form the simple Teacher Workforce publications.

One wonders what the DfE’s policy for both subjects is in the Curriculum Review. Both are key subjects for our modern age, and I would like to thank the reader that reminded me of my 2018 post, and thus, prompted this one.

Oxford Teacher Services Ltd: new owners

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Way back in 2013, I set up Oxford Teacher Services Ltd to show how the simple collection of teacher vacancies then being published by schools on their web sites could significantly reduce the cost of advertising teacher vacancies. Eventually, the DfE created a vacancy website that although not perfect did help change the dynamics of teacher recruitment advertising.

Post covid, and my appointment as cabinet member for children’s services in Oxfordshire between 2023 and 2025, I wound down the work of Oxford Teacher Services, although I did manage to help the UAE with their concerns about a teacher supply model, and continued monitoring both ITT and teacher labour market statistics.

Yesterday, Oxford Teacher Services Ltd was sold to OXIE Holdings Ltd. This company is in the forefront of dealing with aspects of AI in schooling, and also the development of ‘drone football’.

You can find out more about OXIE at Oxford Innovative Education – Empowering critical minds and future voices and

‘drone football’ at Drone Football – Oxford Innovative Education

And you can contact them at: bbone@oxie.org.uk

I believe that ‘drone football’ has a great future. Why not book a trial event for a day, for your school, company or youth group. ‘Drone football’ can also be booked for birthday parties. ‘Drone football’ will also be showcased at a number of science fairs over the next year.

I will still continue to monitor labour market data through dataforeducation, and will publish a report early in January on headteacher turnover in England during the 2025-26 school year. If you would like more information about that work, please contact me either through the comment section or by email.

I would like to thank everyone that has helped make the work of Oxford Teacher Services Ltd possible during the past 13 years, and I wish it well for the future as a part of OXIE holdings.

Falling School Rolls: not just a London problem?

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Over the next few years, schools across England will be forced to come to terms with falling pupil numbers. As I indicated in an earlier set of posts on this blog, falling rolls can either be managed by the market, through parental choice and selective school’s decisions on their capacity levels without recourse to other local schools, or can the reduction in numbers be managed through some form of innervation, either by the DfE or by some local body, such as a local authority or an elected Mayor.

How pressing is the problem for secondary schools at present? I have looked at a random selection of schools, almost all secondary schools, that have advertised so far in this autumn term of 2026 for a teacher with expertise in music. The usefulness of looking at music is it is a subject where any vacancy is unlikely to be covered by someone else already on the staff. This is because of the subject knowledge needed.

The data for the schools with vacancies has been compared with the DfE public database that contains columns for a school’s ‘number on roll’ and ‘school capacity’. It is not clear how often this data are updated, or when it refers to, but there don’t seem to have been any changes between the beginning of September and this week, so it may be reasonably recent.

The following table for the different regions of England reveals an interesting picture

LOCAL AUTHORITY REGION20%+ SPARE PLACES19%- 10% SPARE PLACES9% TO  5% SPARE PLACES5% SPARE PLACES TO 4% OVER CAPACITY5%+ OVER CAPACITYTOTAL
EAST ENGLAND102104
EAST MIDLANDS2233111
LONDON14211422
NORTH EAST010102
NORTH WEST021317
SOUTH EAST111036
SOUTH WEST2180011
WESTMIDLANDS12115
YORKS & HUMBER012025
ALL REGIONS81419201273

Of the 73 schools with a vacancy record – about just under 2% of secondary schools, so a reasonable opportunity sample – 41 already had more than 10% spare capacity; 20 had between 5% spare capacity and 5% over capacity, and might be regarded as working at capacity;  12 schools were more than 5% over capacity. Of this last grouping, three were selective schools, and another a highly regarded specialist school.  Seven of the 12 schools were either in London or the South East.

Of the schools with the most spare capacity, only one was in London, and the other seven were spread across five of the other regions, suggesting that parental choice might already be playing a significant part in how full to capacity certain school are even today.

Only two of the 22 schools with the most spare capacity are church schools: both are  Catholic schools. One Church of England school features in the list of most over-subscribed schools. That school is in London, and may have benefitted from a  closeness to the Elizabeth Line, and TfL’s generous transport policy for travel to and from school.

The real issues to come will be both protecting schools in rural areas that serve an area where closure would mean an excessively long journey for some pupils and ensuring all schools can offer what is regarded as the whole curriculum up to age 16. What minority subjects is it allowable for a school not to offer at Key Stage 4?

One thing is certain, many schools with falling rolls will not be recruiting because of their budgets already being under pressure. Might some schools already have dropped music, so not be included in this sample?

I hope that local politicians across England are now asking Scrutiny Committees to be looking into the position locally, and whether any action will be needed, and, if so, by whom?

Might there be another December general election?

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The present opinion polling might make the possibility of a snap December general election more likely, especially if the Burnham Bounce continues, and both Reform and the Green Party drift downward in the polls. As a result, other Parties will be probably putting together a skeleton manifesto, just in case an election is called.

Here are my suggestions about an education section of a manifesto to the Liberal Democrats, the Party I support. These are my own views, and some are more controversial than others.

Raise free travel to school from 16 to 18

At present there is free travel to nearest school if over three miles, up to age 16. In London,  young people aged 16-17 can get free and discounted travel on all our transport services with a Zip Oyster photocard. 16+ Zip Oyster photocard – Transport for London In Birmingham, 16-18s get discounted tickets to and from an education establishment in term-time. In Manchester, Our Pass gives 16-18 year olds free bus travel* across Greater Manchester and Our Pass is not just a bus travel card – cardholders will have access to lots of opportunities, experiences and benefits.

Young people living outside the large urban areas deserve the same rights to access education.

An expert teacher in every classroom

Parents and pupils expect their teachers to be properly trained. Many are not, especially in schools in rural areas and disadvantaged areas where teacher recruitment is challenging. The policy would only grant certification (QTS) for limited areas, where a teacher has the appropriate knowledge and qualification. A school could use a teacher to cover a vacancy or long-term absence, but such teachers, if not qualified, would need emergency accreditation. This would last for no more than two school-years. During that time, the staff member would be expected to undertake appropriate certification through professional development paid for by the school. The DfE would be expected to publish a report to parliament each year on the use of uncertified teachers by schools. The term ‘teacher’ would be come a recognised reserved occupation term, in line with the situation on other professions

Free School lunches to eleven

All primary school children, and those in middle schools, would be entitled to a free school lunch. This extends the policy of free school meals for infant school pupils introduced by the coalition and announced at the Lib Dems Conference in Glasgow.

Renewable energy for all schools

Local areas would be offered matching funding for solar, wind and heat pump installations with the remainder of the funding coming from a ‘social’ bond’ open to local residents in the first instance.  Rural schools would be encouraged to become energy resilience hubs for their local community, providing emergency power sources when the grid isn’t functioning because of storms, flooding or other reasons. Rural areas already generate power for other parts of the country. This scheme would ensure a local payment scheme. As well as providing power for the school.

The curriculum

Any curriculum change would be fully staffed. The curriculum would ensure all pupils received the basic skills and knowledge, supported by funding to ensure all pupils, even with special needs, can achieve their maximum potential. The secondary school curriculum would reflect that fact that young people entering school in 2026 will be working into the 2080s.

Testing

Public examinations at sixteen would be replaced by cheaper national tests based upon sampling techniques. Pupil’s progress should not be determined by rigid rules. There would be a focus on raising standards by ensuring well-qualified teachers.

Testing for national standards would be retained at the end of Key Stage 2 and Foundation Stage to help identify the best use of resources.

School Funding

In a period of declining school rolls, and parental choice, funding schools on a per-pupil basis risks under-funding disadvantaged schools. This is especially the case in areas where there are selective schools. Many of these schools are over-capacity, while the non-selective schools are required to function well below capacity, and with less funding as a result.

All schools should be funded to a level where they can deliver an appropriate curriculum. Improvements in technology should allow for actual salary funding for schools, rather than the average salary funding that disadvantages some schools with experienced staff, but falling rolls.

There is a case to be made for a universal secondary school and college system to meet the needs of all 11-18 year-olds

Effective post-sixteen education

Consideration would be given to how pupils could be offered a choice of routes and subjects that best meet their needs in a planned manner. With falling rolls, not all schools and colleges would be able to offer and effective curriculum for all.

Enjoying school

Most primary school children enjoy school, but attendance and enjoyment both drop off between the ages of 11-16. The current DfE opinion polling would be widened to take more account of the views of young people, and the challenges they face in a rapidly changing society where they will be voters before they complete their education, if the voting age is reduced to 16, as we support.

Every child has a right to education

The state does not require children to attend school, but to be educated. Home Schooled children often receive a good quality education, but along with those educated in private schools there should be a system of inspection and support. No child should ever be without a school. A virtual school for pupils either moving into an area or excluded from a school should enrol such pupils from day one to ensure no break in their education. Much can be learnt from the best of the virtual schools for looked-after young people.

Inspection

Ofsted needs reform, but to underpin a national assessment of schools there needs to be a local framework of advisors and inspectors that can support and encourage teachers and school leaders. No school should be surprised by any national assessment if it has been working effectively with  local teams drawn from school middle and senior leaders. Such teams also provide a career path for those interested in progressing carers in teaching and learning and not school leadership.

An education system for all

Falling rolls, a fractured operating system of academy trusts, local authorities and dioceses does not make for an effective local education system. Decisions are haphazard, and may create competing and poorly funded outcomes. In the short-term the current Schools Forums would be reconstituted as a local education planning forum to ensure resources are not wasted, and young people can receive the best outcomes from their time in education.

A new deal for teachers

Teachers’ contracts have barely changed in the last 60 years, apart from the directed working time of 1,265 hours for those not on the leadership scale. While other graduates now expect four weeks paid holiday, up to 10 public holidays, and not to work between Christmas and after New Year, teachers still work an employer-driven flexi-time, where periods when children are not in school are expected to compensate for long-hours worked during term-time. Such an imbalance makes recruiting staff, and especially graduates challenging and needs a comprehensive review by the School Teachers Review Body (STRB).

Funding schools for needs not pupil numbers

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Following on from yesterday’s post about the report from the Children’s Commissioner on children growing up, I talked this morning to a head teacher about some of the issues which faced them on a daily basis. According to the Children’s Commissioners report, their school is in an advantageous area for growing up. https://www.childrenscommissioner.gov.uk/resource/the-childhood-lottery-the-hardest-places-to-grow-up-in-england/

Yesterday’s report worries me because small pockets of deprivation within areas singled out as successful by reports such as that from the Children’s Commissioner may not have the mechanism to deal with their localised problems.

The school whose headteacher I was talking to is part of MAT, along with another school in the same postcode. Across that postcode, are two maintained schools, (one VA/one VC), and schools in three other multi-academy trusts, one with six schools, one with three schools and two MATs with two schools each.

How do you manage strategy for the area in such circumstances. No doubt health and social services can have area boards, but who has the power to bring together schools to work out a common approach to local issues?

Probably not at present the local authorities, both upper and lower tier, although through its Children’s Services the upper tier authoritiy does manage, social services, youth services and youth justice. Should it once again be given strategic powers for local areas? Central government has tried such an approach with ideas ranging from Blair’s Education Action Zones (EAZs) to the Conservative government’s Opportunity Areas policy. Most of these failed to improve education outcomes for the localities where they intervened. Would a more local approach have succeeded? Certainly not without resources.

I am led to wonder whether the present funding formula for schools is fit for purpose during a period of declining rolls.  Pitting schools against schools to recruit pupils doesn’t guarantee schools the resources necessary to ensure pupils achieve outcomes: some pupils need more resources than others. This was recognised with the Pupil Premium, but seems to have been overlooked in terms of the failure of local decision-making that has resulted from a fractured system of decision-making.

One example quoted to me was how trauma in pupils is addressed. This might arise because a parent was handed down a prison sentence, and the family name appeared in the local paper. How traumatic is that for a nine-year-old. Then, there are those living in overcrowded flats, sometimes in tower blocks. How traumatic is that to a seven-year-old.

All too often the simple administrative solution is to  create an EHCP for the child rather than to work with the school on funding to deal with the in-school issues resulting from the trauma, and to work to reduce exclusions that might result, even with an EHCP, and support better learning outcomes. Of course, all staff in all agencies are working under great pressure, so shortcuts can be an easy solution.

My thesis is that schools in a locality should once again be part of a system that acknowledges their needs, and that across a large administrative area, needs between schools may be different. Money is a help, but also a common set of values is also important.

What worries me is that a high percentage of schools in challenging areas are church or faith-based schools. What part are faith leaders playing in making sure that the schools they are responsible for serve their communities as effectively as possible. In the same vein, what part do local politicians play in ensuring the best outcomes for their residents?

Nationally as the Children’s Commissioner identified in her report, we need funding for targeted areas, but, in addition, we also need vision and the will to effect change on the part of both local and national politicians.  We need to create a school system capable of dealing with the challenges of all our children whether they are growing up in challenging area within a mostly great place to live or one of England’s deprived communities.

Are London schools’ results slipping?

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The DfE has today published the provisional data about attainment in the school-year 2025/26 Secondary school performance data in England: 2025 to 2026 (provisional) – GOV.UK The data provides two measures, ‘average attainment score’ and the  ‘Percentage of pupils achieving grades 5 or above in English and maths GCSEs’.  

Now, I never put a lot of store by the second of these measures, because it is heavily dependent on the ability of schools to recruit high-quality staff. I may be biased, because I didn’t meet this measure at sixteen, but did go on the good grades at ‘A’ level two years later, and thence to university and my subsequent career.

The other measure of ‘average attainment score’ isn’t perfect, but it does allow for a wider range of achievement, but the outcomes can still be affected by the ability of schools to be able to recruit teachers. Smaller local authorities, covering more homogenous communities, may also fare better in any rankings where those communities are likely to contain a higher proportion of parents engaged with their children’s schooling.

Once again, London boroughs dominate the top twenty-five authorities by outcomes for ‘average attainment score’, taking 17 of the top 25 places. Five of the other eight places are local authorities in the South East. If the Isles of Scilly – the one South West authority in the top 25 – is discounted as a special case, the other two authorities in the top twenty-five were, one in the North West and one in the East of England. Both of these authorities, along with four of the ten Outer London boroughs in the top 25, have selective schools within the authority area.

Interestingly, none of the Inner London’s seven boroughs in the top 25 have selective schools by designation. However, two authorities, Kensington & Chelsea and Hammersmith & Fulham are relatively small authorities.

Overall, the worst performing London borough was ranked 74th (Lambeth) with Croydon the lowest ranked Outer London borough at a ranking of 70th.

As discussed elsewhere, London has traditionally been able to fund its schools to provide some of the best pupil-teacher ratios in England.  (PDF) PTRS OVER TIME: A REVIEW OF PUPIL TEACHER RATIOS BETWEEN 1974 AND 2024 AND TWO PERIODS OF LOCAL GOVERNMENT RE-ORGANISATION PTRS OVER TIME: A REVIEW OF PUPIL TEACHER RATIOS

Authorities with selective schools do seem to perform well across the country. As the previous posts on pupil place planning have shown, these schools are often well over capacity, raising questions about differences between the selective and non-selective schools in these authorities.   

At the other end  of the table are many local authorities that are either urban metropolitan districts or relatively small urban unitary authorities. The isle of Wight stands out as an example of small non-urban unitary authority close to the foot of the table.

Knowsley and Blackpool and no strangers to the lower reaches of the table. Blackpool was one of the Conservative’s Opportunity Areas, eligible for additional resources and help, but is still 21.5 points adrift of the best performing London borough without selective schools.  

Finally, Cambridgeshire recorded a score of 48.9 in 38th place, whereas Oxfordshire was 67th with  a score of 46.3. Both are fully non-selective authorities serving rural areas, but dominated by a university settlement at the heart of the county. This difference raises a whole set of interesting questions about our state school system.

The answer to the question in the title is ‘no’ compared with 2024/25 when 17 of the top 25 places were also taken by London boroughs. Oxfordshire slipped from 63rd last year to 67th this year. Effectively, a standstill position. Sadly Blackpool and Knowsley both propped up the table last year, as they have done this year.

Are Primary Headteachers underpaid?

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Yesterday, the BBC ran a story about graduates and repayment of their tuition fees. Of the three graduates featured: one had paid nothing of the loan off, and her interest payments were increasing; one had paid something, and one had repaid the lot, using a family loan at a lower rate of interest. Plan 2: Three friends on a decade of student loans – BBC News

What stuck me about these three graduates in their 30,s was how much they were earning. One, in private practice, earned £50K; another as a project manager working outside London earned £72K and the third in financial services earned £85K.

Now, all no doubt have responsibilities, but do they have the same level of responsibilities as a primary headteacher, even of the smallest school?

Since last summer, I have seen 36 headships advertised on a scale starting at below £60,000 and more than 270 in total with a scale starting below £70,000. Now there are pension benefits and employer-driven flexitime holidays that the graduate in private practice might not expect, but there is a freedom that self-employment brings, plus other advantages.

Of course, the bottom of the scale might not be where a headteacher start, but it does provide a guideline. Indeed, with falling rolls, I have seen some re-advertisements at a lower salary than the original advert.

In  post earlier this year, I wondered whether about primary headteacher salaries Are state school headteachers overpaid? | John Howson and I make no excuse for returning to the subject. It’s a tough job running some our smallest schools. Little by way  of support staff; mixed age classes, the same amount of DfE demands, from the annual census to attendance returns, let alone Ofsted looming.

I don’t know whether the NAHT still submit job evaluation data comparing headteachers with comparable salaries elsewhere to the School Teachers Pay Review body, and I hope that they still do, because it seems to me that secondary headteachers manging a leadership team are often rewarded with a six figure salary, primary heads managing themselves, and both teaching and providing leadership aren’t properly recompensed. And what happens when a  grumpy parent uses AI to submit a 22 page complaint, and expects  a response?

Hopefully, if the school is in an academy trust or a diocese, help will be forthcoming, but for maintained schools, it will depend upon how many staff are left supporting education in Children’s Services. Not many, in some authorities, I fear.

As I pointed out in the previous post, a teacher in a large primary school on the upper Pay spine and with a TLR (Teaching & Learning Responsibility point) might earn nearly as much a headteacher in a small school, and with the benefit of the 1265 hours worktime directive that doesn’t apply to those on the Leadership Scale, such as headteachers.

I sincerely hope that the School Teachers Pay Review body will consider the issue of the demands of being a headteacher, and the remuneration it deserves. If it doesn’t, I suspect many primary headteachers would make excellent project managers, and not have to work evening and weekends. And, of course they wouldn’t have to deal with staff, parents and pupils.

A headteacher role is a great job, but it needs rewarding appropriately, and not just a sum based upon pupil numbers alone.

Applications to teach: a review of the data

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When I started this blog, way back in 2013, universities were out of favour with the government as a route to train teachers. Indeed, Mr Gove once famously used the term ‘blob’ Am I a blob? | John Howson Now, he was referring to local government, but he might just as well have been fingering university departments of education, such was his dislike of their approach to preparing teachers. He much preferred schools as the location for those learning to become a teacher.

Some years later, this blog reviewed the balance between applications to different routes into teaching. I expressed my views in a post in .  A thank you to Schools of Education | John Howson

In that post, I reviewed the percentages for applications in May over four years, as derived from the then UCAS monthly data reports. This was before the DfE took over recruitment through their portal

So here are the percentages for applications in May over the four years reported in that post and as derived from the then UCAS monthly data reports.

Primary2015201620172018
HE51454847
SCITT89910
SDFEE24272525
SDSAL17191818
Secondary2015201620172018
HE51475052
SCITT8101112
SDFEE29312928
SDSAL121297

I thought it might be interesting to see what has happened since the years of the covid pandemic. (I don’t have 2018-2020 data easily to hand). The monthly data for applications is no longer split between primary and secondary, one of a few unhelpful changes to the data presentation. But, at least, there is still monthly data available, and that data has provided fertile grounds for this blog over the years.

The first point to note, when comparing the two tables, is the change in categories, with the ‘Fee’ route disappearing and the ‘Lead Provider’ route replacing it. The ‘teaching degree apprenticeship’ has also appeared, and is now in its second year of applications. Will its significance grow over the next few years?

ALL20222023202420252026
HE4841384042
SCITT1418162017
Fee Route28
SALARIED671198
LEAD PROV030282119
PG T APP457812
T DeGRE APP00012

It is also worth noting that these are percentages. As a result, they hide the fact that in the period covered by the earlier table, pupil rolls were on the increase, and thus more teachers needed to be trained. Will falling rolls, fewer teachers need to be trained currently. Whether that has affected the view of teaching as a career, is of no immediate concern in this post, as the  basis is the percentages applying for each route.

Apprenticeship have now secured a strong foothold in the minds of would-be teachers, accounting for 14% or nearly one in seven applications by the end of May 2026. School Centred Courses (SCITTs) have been around for more than 30 years now. In May 2025 they accounted for 25% of applications, but have fallen back in 2026 to 17% this May.

The various salaried routes saw an increase in applications after covid, but, possibly because of the graduate apprenticeship route, their percentage seems to be in decline from the 11% of applications reached in May 2024 to eight per cent in 2026.  

Seemingly, higher education is the main loser; down from 48% in 2022 to 42% in May 2026. This is nine percentage points below its position in May 2015, when higher education accounted for 52% of applications. I suspect that a significant percentage of the decline is down to fewer primary places being on offer in the past few years. As those courses normally ‘fill’ with offers early in the cycle, fewer places will have generated fewer applications. The four-percentage point gain over the past two years, may be down to an increase in ‘rest of the world’ applicants who may know more about universities than the other routes on offer. The DfE no doubt has that data, but it is not shared in the monthly statistics.

Where to place the Provider Led courses? Are they a direct transfer from the former School Direct Fee route, or something different. Either way, either their popularity or their availability to applicants,  has seen their percentage decline quite steeply in recent years.

The data in this post is based upon trends in applications. At some point in the future, I will look at trends in ‘offer’ and actual attendance, as measured by the ITT Census, produced each December by the DfE. The post also uses the month of May data, not the endo f the round .This is because by May some subjects and the primary sector are often not accepting any more applications, so May is a good time to review the application round when the majority of courses have been accepting applications.

For now, the universities are still the leading route into teaching, but will vice chancellors still want to play in this game as they consider their financial futures, especially if targets, and thus income will be reducing because of falling rolls? Smaller groups are often uneconomic, and subsidy is not the name of the game in higher education at present. Interesting times.

Selective schools and falling rolls – Part 2 Do we need a national policy?

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Do we need a national policy on how local areas deal with falling school rolls? If so, who should decide? Local authorities – democratically elected, but with little power over academies and voluntary schools? Regional Directors – covering wide areas, and with no democratic accountability? CEOs advising the Board of Governance of MATs – unelected in both cases? Mayors, where they exist, but what about where they don’t?

My preference is for democracy, so, as regular reads might expect, I vote for local authorities, assisted by a committee from the other groups. However, some of those might not want to take challenging decisions, so they might need some guidelines for the DfE and the Labour government for them to work within.

I have looked at the ‘capacity’ and ‘number on roll’ in three councils with selective schools (Slough, Medway and London Borough of Barnet). In all three of these authorities, capacity exceeds rolls. Generally. However, selective schools exceed capacity more than they have spare places. In non-selective schools the picture is more mixed.

In pupil place planning for the future, whoever takes the decisions, there are some questions to answer, based on the evidence of the data about school rolls from schools in these three authorities.

Have all-thorough schools worked?

Has the extension of faith schools beyond a few Christian denominations and Jewish schools after 1997 worked?

What do parents think of single-sex education these days?

Have new forms of academies and free schools flourished?

What part can parental choice play in a falling rolls scenario?

What is both any economic cost, and any educational cost associated with doing nothing?

A final question. Why does the DfE not have admissions policies for three schools across the authorities; two in one authority?

As these are all urban/suburban areas, transport costs don’t matter very much for most families. I will look at selective schools in rural areas later in another post.

It is interesting that the London borough has a smaller capacity gap than either of the other unitary councils. However, the total in all three authorities conceals a wide range of outcomes. I referred to this issue in my post Are dashboards useful? | John Howson where I made clear that just looking at totals is rarely good enough. Measures of central tendency also need to be considered.

The data in this post has used ‘capacity’ and ‘numbers on roll’. Reviewing authorities will also have primary transfer numbers, and group sizes for predictions of future transfer numbers for the next 5-7 years.

If a Scrutiny Committee of an upper tier authority hasn’t considered pupil place planning in the authority recently, then I would suggest they put it on the agenda for a spring meeting, and ask for a detailed paper, even if it means going into confidential session. Not to do so, won’t make the issue go away.

Finally, why did I choose these three authorities? They are in London and South East, where there are a significant number of selective schools, and, the authorities were of a size where I could handle the data. Selective schools and falling rolls | John Howson

 I might next look at three more diverse areas (The South West, West Midlands and East of England regions spring to mind).