Music Teachers: demand and supply

Posted on September 11, 2026 by John Howson

As part of its monthly review of applications by graduates to train as a teacher, this blog has often commented upon the issue of whether there will be sufficient new teachers of music. This blog has also condemned the withdrawal of the bursary for music by the Labour government.

Teacher retention versus recruitment: not just a matter of economics

Posted on September 10, 2026 by John Howson

This week, the Education Policy Institute (EPI), a think tank with left leanings, published another report about the value of ensuring teachers don’t leave the profession compared with trying to boost recruitment. Their latest report is called Retain or Recruit? Microsoft Word – EPI_RetrainRecruit_September2026 and follows on from their earlier report on a similar topic, reviewed in my blog post from 2022, ‘Keeping Science Teachers in Schools Keeping science teachers in schools | John Howson Both EPI reports were supported by The Gatsby Foundation, a body that has a long and honourable history of supporting research in this field.

The latest EPI report makes three recommendations:

Fund a specialist-equivalent retraining programme

Close the data gaps on completion, post-programme teaching, and demand

Add retraining alongside bursary policy, not in place of it

Microsoft Word – EPI_RetrainRecruit_September2026 page 53.

I am all in favour of re-training, if there are the teachers with sufficient knowledge, skills and desire to retrain to do so located in the schools that need them. After all, with an open labour market for teachers, using price as a mechanism for attracting teachers to work in schools without teachers capable of delivering physics at an advanced level hasn’t worked.

However, the EPI report does need to be set into the current context of falling pupil numbers that will eventually affect the size of sixth forms. As I demonstrated in an earlier post, Are small sixth forms a good idea? | John Howson small sixth forms often don’t perform well. Is it worth making sure any first tranche of retrained teachers would be in schools with a viable future, and the possibility of a credible ‘A’ Level programme? However, this is a much wider issue than just teaching physics to ‘A’ level that a future government may need to deal with at some stage.

I am all in favour of ensuring we know who teachers what to whom, and indeed what isn’t being taught in some schools because of the lack of a qualified teacher. I wonder whether this information already exists within the School Workforce database? If not, some sampling of schools might be useful. The 1999 study that I participated in showed that ‘Teaching ‘A’ Level physics was an important driver in retention of early career teachers. I guess it might also be for those retrained. We know for ‘A’ Level entries the schools not currently entering any candidates for the subject.

It is also worth recalling the EPI previously visited this issue in 2018, as I noted in my blog post Pay physics teachers more than history teachers? | John Howson when the issue of differential pay was discussed. Mechanisms around recruitment and retention incentives and equal pay for jobs of equal worth can bedevil that debate.

Finally, it is worth considering whether programme such as Teach First have a better rate of retention than other ITT routes, including apprenticeships and salaried schemes.

We all want more teachers of physics, so I hope that decision-makers consider the EPI approach seriously, as they did with pre-ITT course subject enhancement courses.

ITT crisis not yet over

Posted on September 4, 2026 by John Howson

What does it take to ensure all training places for graduates wanting to be a teacher are filled. The best chance of sufficient trainees is when the school population is in decline, the job market is challenging for graduates – especially new graduates – and existing teachers are not exiting the profession at the same rate as previously.

The current ITT position is governed by the fact that school rolls are falling, so fewer new teachers are needed; the graduate job market is beginning to feel the consequences of AI, or it may be for graduates in some subjects, such as computing. Although teachers leaving the profession, net of returners, has not changed much, the opportunities for teachers to work outside of England and not pay back their student loans is probably still increasing.

The 2026 targets for trainee numbers were cut by the DfE. We won’t know until the ITT census in December what the overall picture looks like, but the table below shows the position if all ‘accepted’ for courses covered by the DfE’s monthly statistics of numbers accepted were to turn up and be recorded in the 2026 ITT census.

Subject Target 2026/27 August offers Fill: August view August Accepted Fill on Accepted August
Chemistry 690 1530 YES 1362 YES
Biology 675 679 PROBABLY 492 NO
Mathematics 2000 3141 YES 2720 YES
Design & Technology 620 741 YES 659 YES
Art & Design 605 756 YES 624 YES
Geography 685 589 NO 496 NO
Classics 75 47 NO 39 NO
English 1980 1900 POSSIBLY 1587 NO
Drama 370 338 POSSIBLY 279 NO
Business Studies 1200 379 NO 283 NO
Music 260 283 YES 238 NO
Religious Education 450 367 NO 308 NO
Others 2035 527 NO 424 NO
History 520 1166 YES 995 YES
Modern Languages 1085 1409 YES 1201 YES
Physics 810 1649 YES 1434 YES
Physical Education 655 1608 YES 1359 YES
Computing 565 1041 YES 876 YES

The column to consider is the final one for the number accepted by August 17^th 2026 in the DfE monthly published statistics. Initial teacher training application statistics for courses starting in the 2025 to 2026 academic year – Apply for teacher training – GOV.UK

Despite the cuts to training places, some subjects are still unlikely to meet their reduced target, even though they have more trainees accepted than last year. However, the effect of AI may be seen in the increase in numbers accepted in computing.

The focus now should be on recruitment into the arts and social sciences, where some subjects only beat the target number by a very small margin, and others missed even the reduced requirement. Can the DfE afford to offer bursaries in these subjects without cutting the bursary elsewhere and risking a yo-yo effect of no bursary, a slump in applications.

Personally, I think al trainees should be treated equally, and that the DfE should not try to pick winners and losers. However, with funding tight, I cannot see that happening, even with a Secretary of State more likely to be sympathetic to teachers than some of her predecessors.

In passing, it is worth noting that applications from those in their 50s are below the numbers in the last cycle. All other groups have recorded increases, but for the ‘21 and under’ new graduates grouping, this is just 106 more applicants. For the 22-25 age groups it is just over 600 more application out a total of over 15,000.

The large increase in applications is for secondary courses, up from 38,169 in the last cycle to 43,365 this year. However, much of that increase has been fuelled by an increase in applicants from the ‘Rest of the world’ – up from 8,777 in the last cycle to 14,049 in this cycle, now accounting for more than 25% of applicants once those from the EEA are included in the total.

The September DfE data will be confirmatory, and few changes are expected that is unless those from overseas that have been ‘accepted’ fall foul of the government’s visa rules.

What of the class of 2027/28? With falling rolls, and the increasing effect of AI on jobs for new graduates, it seems likely a new golden age for teacher training may be dawning. However, this will result in casualties among providers: not all will survive.

This blog called the start of the supply crisis in 2013, and was condemned by the DfE for doing so. Perhaps it might be rewarded for charting what has happened over the next 13 years, and its predication for the future? But somehow I doubt it.

Fewer ethnic minority graduates achieved QTS

Posted on August 1, 2026 by John Howson

The absolute number of postgraduate trainee teachers from a non-white background is slowly creeping up. Release home – Initial teacher training performance profiles – Explore education statistics – GOV.UK

The latest data, plus the data for the previous year are shown in the table.

However, the percentage of non-White trainees dropped from 75% of the total in 2023/24, to 72% of the 2024/25 trainee total.

The percentages teaching in state schools within 16 months of obtaining QTS dropped for all groups, but the decrease was largest, in percentage terms, for the Black/African/Caribbean Group, down from 74% to 67%. This is a real disappointment, and merits further investigation as to where the decline has occurred? This is a group of graduates that have regularly found obtaining a place on a teaching course more challenging than for graduates from other ethnic groups, and especially the ‘White’ majority grouping.

Despite the much larger number of White trainees, they achieved a higher percentage teaching in state schools than for any ethnic group, once again, in the latest data.

Numbers not obtaining qualified teacher Statues (QTS) also increased for all groups. Was this due to increased numbers dropping out of their course or an increase in trainees being failed at the end of the course?

More than thirty years ago, I highlighted the issues faced by graduates from minority ethnic groups desirous of entering teaching, and I have written several blogs on the topic, including Ethnic minority trainee teachers: still huge regional differences in trainee numbers | John Howson

The ethnicity of the teaching profession is an area the new Secretary of State might want to ask officials to investigate. The diversity of our student population should be matched by a similar diversity in the teaching workforce, as I am sure it is among the non-teaching staff in our schools.

At the same time, it would be worth asking whether it is harder for men from ethnic minorities than for women from these groups to enter teaching?

As an aside, it would be helpful if ethnicity was added to gender data in the DfE’s monthly statistics on applications to train as a teacher by graduates.

Mbacc a pipedream without the teachers

Posted on July 30, 2026 by John Howson

In the previous post, I considered trends in teacher supply into state secondary schools for three subjects listed as a part of the Prime Minister’s proposed MBacc. If such a qualification is to be rolled out nationally, then there will either need to be more teachers in schools in certain subjects or more young people will need to be diverted into further education, perhaps at 14 rather than 16. However, even that strategy won’t solve the music and performing arts dilemma regarding the number of teachers’ issue. Abolishing the bursary for music looks even more unfortunate in the light of the MBacc announcement.

How about the wider primary and secondary sectors?

In line with falling pupil numbers, there has been a reduction in trainee numbers in the primary sector. This has resulted in fewer numbers obtaining QTS, and even fewer of those working in the state primary school sector. The 5,882 recorded working in state schools of the 2024/25 cohort should increase as the data is refined, but it is still likely to be only halfthe number of just four years previously, when more than 10,000 new teachers were working in the primary sector at some point in the 16 months after obtaining Qualified Teacher Status (QTS).

Fortunately, those newly qualified teachers not obtaining a teaching post in England, might be able to look overseas for work. With VAT on fees for private school pupils in England, the independent sector is unlikely to offer must of an alternative to the state sector over the next few years; at least until there is some upturn in the birthrate.

I hope that course providers will take note of this data, and not over-recruit to courses in the future, as burdening students with more debt and a restricted chance of securing a teaching post is not really fair on the students.

In the secondary sector, the overall position hides some variations between subjects.

The percentage obtaining QTS among secondary trainees has been falling; from some 95% before covid, to 92-93% in the years since. The overall percentage hides a much greater change in the numbers obtaining QTS, from a Covid high of 19,070 to a low of 12,820 only two years later. Covid may have brought forward the decision to teach that might otherwise have been delayed until a future year.

Fortunately, 2024-2025 saw the number obtaining QTS much closer to pre-Covid levels. With falling rolls, the overall number of trainees, if not the mix within subjects, may be satisfactory for the DfE.

However, post-covid the state school sector lost around five and a half thousand teachers compared with the pre-covid numbers f new teachers entering state schools. To what extend these missing teachers have been replaced by new entrants through the ‘assessment only’ route, isn’t clear from the data.

In the most recent year, 2024-2025, what of the percentages in state schools by secondary subjects?

The low percentage of those qualifying for QTS in Classics instate schools, is perhaps not a surprise given the percentage of state schools that teach the subject. The fact physical education is in second position in the table, with just 59% of those obtaining QTS in state schools should not be a surprise to anyone familiar with the number of trainees recruited and the DfE’s target for the subject.

Only in English and mathematics were there more than 1,000 new teachers working in schools. Given the requirement to teach these subjects to all pupils up to Year 11, and for some in Years 12 & 13, even these numbers may be insufficient. The 234 music, and 133 business studies teachers, and the 321 religious education new entrants, are almost certainly not enough to allow the subjects to thrive in our schools, even before the desire to widen the curriculum to include more MBacc students, and fewer EBacc students.

Alongside the conversation about the curriculum, and the desire of the Prime Minister to make it more relevant for work in the 21^st century, there really needs to be a conversation about how the curriculum changes can be properly staffed, so that all pupils receive a high quality education taught by teachers qualified in their subject, and not just a page ahead of the AI generated lesson plan.

Data from: Initial teacher training performance profiles: 2024 to 2025 – GOV.UK

MBacc and teacher supply

Posted on July 30, 2026 by John Howson

The DfE ITT performance tables issued today allow me to write a quick post about the MBacc and the supply of newly qualified teachers over the past few year. Initial teacher training performance profiles: 2024 to 2025 – GOV.UK

Number for three key subjects are limited, as the table makes clear

Achieved QTS and teaching in a state school within 16 months of QTS

ITT Year	Business Studies	Design & Technology	Music	Total
2017/18	106	240	220	566
2018/19	134	236	212	582
2019/2020	125	341	224	690
2020/21	225	454	337	1016
2021/22	199	292	289	780
2022/23	155	346	227	728
2023/24	135	441	171	747
2024/25	133	456	234	823

Numbers have increased over recent years, and may still increase further as more data is accumulated for the most recent years. However, apart from the covid bounce, they still remain low as a percentage of state schools.

With more than 500 vacancies for teachers of music this year, even if half are filled by returners, there would not be enough trainees in any years, except for the ‘covid years’ to cover vacancies.

TVEI and the Manchester Bacc: same problem, same solution?

Posted on July 29, 2026 by John Howson

I hesitate to couple together Andy Burnham, our new Prime Minster, and Mrs Thatcher, one of most marmite Prime Minsters’, but they do both seem to have an interest in the role of education in preparing young people for work.

In 1982, Mrs Thatcher introduced a new scheme in what has been described in the following terms by a researcher:

The Technical Vocational Education Initiative (TVEI) was intended to instil a significant element of vocational and technical education into the curricula of mainstream schools and colleges (Williams and Yeomans, 1994). It was the first major initiative by central Government in curriculum development. The pilot was announced by then Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher in the House of Commons on 12th November 1982. Learning from the past Paper No. 6

The new initiative by Andy Burnham initiative is described in the following terms:

Mayor of Greater Manchester Andy Burnham said:

“For too long the English education system has been built around the needs of just a third [sic] of young people who go to university. That means that every year, thousands go through school without a clear path into a good career.

Our answer is the MBacc – a game-changing new plan for technical education. We’re using our devolved powers to reset the scales and give young people a clear line of sight to good jobs and the steps that will take them there.

If we don’t make this change now, it could be the single biggest barrier to future growth – and to the life chances of young people here. The needs of our economy are changing, and right now the system is not capable of keeping pace and meeting the needs of businesses or the ambitions of the next generation.”

Unlike the English Baccalaureate, which is geared towards the subjects top universities value, each MBacc gateway will guide young people to the subjects and qualifications most valued by the city-region’s employers. The gateways draw on the latest labour market data and provide a clear line of sight to high quality jobs in Greater Manchester’s growing economy. There will also be clear MBacc pathways for those who want careers in the emergency services or the Bee Network. Andy Burnham unveils plan to turbocharge growth in Greater Manchester with new technical education route, the Greater Manchester Baccalaureate – Greater Manchester Combined Authority Accessed 29^th July 2026 0955

Interestingly, Burnham lists the following subject as part of the MBacc.

Engineering

Design & Technology

Business Studies

Drama

Music

Performing Arts

Regular readers of this blog will know that many of these are subjects that have difficult in recruiting new entrants into teaching. In the case of music, this is a subject where the DfE has slashed the ITT target. Engineering doesn’t have a target, so is probably in ‘other subjects’. Design and Technology is only filing its places as, like music, the target has been reduced

Subject	Target 2026/27	July offers	Fill: July view	July Accepted	Fill on accepted
Chemistry	690	1460	YES	1302	YES
Biology	675	629	PROBABLY	466	POSSIBLY
Mathematics	2000	2953	YES	2567	YES
Design & Technology	620	701	YES	630	YES
Art & Design	605	709	YES	590	YES
Geography	685	549	N	466	NO
Classics	75	45	NO	37	NO
English	1980	1835	POSSIBLY	1535	POSSIBLY
Drama	370	318	POSSIBLY	263	NO
Business Studies	1200	357	NO	267	NO
Music	260	266	YES	220	YES
Religious Education	450	349	NO	294	NO
Others	2035	508	NO	414	NO
History	520	1112	YES	952	YES
Modern Languages	1085	1363	YES	1172	YES
Physics	810	1600	YES	1438	YES
Physical Education	655	1551	YES	1326	YES
Computing	565	961	YES	808	YES

Andy Burnham must be careful not to announce a policy he cannot deliver nationally without a strategy for teacher supply, otherwise the very schools he seeks to help may be the ones that cannot recruit the teachers in a market where supply nowhere near meets demand on a national scale.

Manchester is blessed, as is the North West as a whole, with more ITT places than most of the rest of England. The test of any Prime Minister is whether he can scale up a local initiative into a credible national policy? The first step would be for Lucy Powell to take ownership of the policy.

ITT: Do bursaries work?

Posted on July 27, 2026 by John Howson

Following on from the July data on postgraduate ITT preparation courses, Initial teacher training application statistics for courses starting in the 2026 to 2027 academic year – Apply for teacher training – GOV.UK I thought that I would publish a few charts showing the number of offers made over time for key subjects. The first two are biology and chemistry

The difference this year is stark: Record offers in chemistry, and the second lowest since 2013/14 cycle for offers in biology. This suggests the presence or absence of a bursary may affect the choice of subject by some scientists that is related to the presence and amount of a bursary.

Music is a subject where the removal of the bursary has reduced the number of offers being made, although there was a slight uptick this month. Fortunately, the significant cut to the target means that there should still be enough applicants to meet the target.

Finally, geography is another subject where the target won’t be met this year. The chart shows why very clearly.

If the aim of the government is to ensure that ITT targets are met in every subject, and not just selected subjects, then there needs to be a rethink about the bursary system.

However, the bursary system is unfair to those studying other subjects in a manner that the public sector does not apply to other areas of recruitment and training.

It is time to bring teacher preparation into the 21^st century: pay all trainees a living wage, and prevent over-recruitment in some subjects and the associated pressure on the Student Loan Fund.

ITT: more home applicants still needed in some subjects

Posted on July 27, 2026 by John Howson

What do geography and classic have in common? Based on the July data on numbers accepted for places on postgraduate teacher preparation courses, there won’t be enough applicants to meet the DfE target in these subjects. These two subjects are joined, in my estimation, by drama, business studies, religious education, and the catchall ‘other subjects’.

Despite some 57,765 applicants this cycle recorded in the July data, released by the DfE this morning, the teacher supply crisis cannot be said to be over until every subject has sufficient trainees to meet the DfE’s targets. Initial teacher training application statistics for courses starting in the 2026 to 2027 academic year – Apply for teacher training – GOV.UK

The table shows my views about outcomes, based upon the July 2026 data for numbers accepted by subject. I haven’t included primary, because I don’t think there will be an issue with that sector, where acceptances for ‘general’ primary courses are up from 10,359 in July 2025 to 10,481 this July.

Subject	Target 2026/27	July offers	Fill: July view	July Accepted	Fill on accepted
Chemistry	690	1460	YES	1302	YES
Biology	675	629	PROBABLY	466	POSSIBLY
Mathematics	2000	2953	YES	2567	YES
Design & Technology	620	701	YES	630	YES
Art & Design	605	709	YES	590	YES
Geography	685	549	NO	466	NO
Classics	75	45	NO	37	NO
English	1980	1835	POSSIBLY	1535	POSSIBLY
Drama	370	318	POSSIBLY	263	NO
Business Studies	1200	357	NO	267	NO
Music	260	266	YES	220	YES
Religious Education	450	349	NO	294	NO
Others	2035	508	NO	414	NO
History	520	1112	YES	952	YES
Modern Languages	1085	1363	YES	1172	YES
Physics	810	1600	YES	1438	YES
Physical Education	655	1551	YES	1326	YES
Computing	565	961	YES	808	YES

The late announcement of the ITT targets may have had some effect on provider outcomes. Acceptances are down in all age groupings, save for the 22 year-olds, where the increase is a mere five more acceptances than in July last year – this difference may be down to the date the report was run: the 20^th July this year.

Overall acceptances are down from 25,422 in July 2025 to 24,048 this July, a reduction of more than 1,400.

Previous posts have discussed the significant percentage of applicants listed as from the ‘Rest of the world’. This month the number accepted from the ‘Rest of the world’ group was 1,662 compared with 1,657 last July. Because of the increase in applications from this group, the percentage ‘accepted’ has dropped from 19% of the group last July, to 12% in July 2026.

Growth in the number of applications from students in the home regions, apart from London, has remained sluggish, and has actually fallen in two regions (North East and Yorkshire & The Humber).

Taken as a whole, these are a mixed set of outcomes. July is sufficiently far through the recruitment cycle to make predictions about outcomes, as already highlighted.

Despite fears of graduate unemployment, the post finals period doesn’t seem to have resulted in a significant increase in home student applicants. Home students remain the key to ensuring all subjects are able to fill their target number of places. Even with the reduction is places in some subjects, as a result of ‘falling rolls’, as indicated earlier, not all subjects will hit their targets in this cycle.

The previous Secretary of State seemed to pay little attention to teacher supply issues. I hope that the present office holder will ask her civil servants, ‘what do we need to do to assure sufficient trainees across the board, but not far too many in history and physical education; and why is there such variation from year to year in the biology and chemistry numbers, even if, this year there might be enough to fill all the ‘science’ places’.

Finally, it may be that applicants are starting to vote with their feet in favour of routes into teaching that don’t require the acquisition of further debt.

Applications by route	2026 cycle	2025 cycle	difference	Accepted July 2026
Partner Led	17419	17977	-558	4162
SCITT	16812	16867	-55	6315
HE	33719	33723	-4	11692
Salaried	8169	7634	535	311
Degree apprenticeships	1935	1079	856	1342
Apprenticeships	11944	7335	4609	234
All applications	89998	84615	5383

However, the sector has not been able to respond to this trend, and courses incurring additional debt still dominate the routes into teaching. It is time for this to change. Incidentally, the government must now concede that higher educations till plays the dominant role in teacher preparation, something the recently appointed UCET leaders will no doubt be keen to remind the new Secretary of State about.

Lucy Powell: a bad start

Posted on July 25, 2026 by John Howson

I know the Secretary of State for Education has only been in post for less than a week, and is obviously learning the ropes, so perhaps the following appeared in her predecessor’s red box for sign off. Nevertheless, it doesn’t look like a good start.

Conditions of grant: intensive training and practice grant for accredited ITT providers – GOV.UK

Publishing a ‘conditions of grant’ information to ITT providers on the 23^rd July for courses starting this September seems a very poor piece of management. I know this is not a new grant, but there seem to be new demands that might involve re-arranging elements of courses at extremely short notice.

Now, you can argue, ITT providers should have already incorporated these elements into their courses, and I am not aware if any warning was given to providers of the changes ahead. No doubt someone can tell me in the comments.

The cash is also small beer compared with the fees for training, but for larger providers wanting to claim in excess of £40,000 the audit requirement do seem a bit onerous. Fortunately, smaller provider can self-certify, but must keep full records, adding to their burden.

These seem like sensible requirements, so the real issue is the timing. Do civil servants not understand the rhythm of the school year? Have these same civil servants considered how courses are planned, and the need to work in partnership between the ITT provider, whether school, university or private provider. Each and every school being used will need to see trainees practice adheres to the new requirements.

This will be challenging enough for secondary schools, but at least many will be back at work by the time the exam results season comes round in mid-August. However, I suspect making adjustments will be more of a challenge for primary schools involved in ITT placements. Of course, trainees won’t be in school on day one in September, but making changes at the very busy start of the school-year is not ideal.

Perhaps the new Secretary of State could consider an embargo on any new changes for the school-year being introduced more than a month before the end of the summer term or after the 30^th June, whichever comes first.

It would be a shame to see any ITT provider threatened with de-accreditation for failing to meet the requirements of a grant only notified to them less than six weeks before the start of their courses, and during the middle of the key employer-driven flexitime period, when most are required to take annual leave.

Civil servants can take leave at any time, teachers and ITT staff cannot, and the DfE should respect that fact. Placing any extra requirements on schools and ITT staff at this time of year is poor policy-making in practice.

Hopefully, the Secretary of State will listen to the concerns about timing raised by schools and the ITT sector, and make sure grant requirements are not imposed during the summer holiday period, unless absolutely necessary; I don’t think this change is in that category, and the DfE should make clear any changes do not need to come into force until January 2027, allowing reasonable time for planning.

John Howson

Education and the numbers that affect what happens

Tag Archives: teacher preparation