Making Music: Lib Dems back more music

Posted on September 20, 2026 by John Howson

This morning Lib Dems discussed a motion at their Conference that Music Matters, Here is the text of my speech and a link at the end to the video and how it was delivered from the podium.

F15 Music matters

Conference, This November, one of Oxfordshire’s youth orchestras will play at the Schools’ Prom. We are lucky to still have a music service. However, the capping of the grant from Westminster since 2014 has made running the service so much harder, and restricted the work that the service can do with schools.

I fully support this motion; music is a vital part of our economy. Shame on Labour for abolishing the bursary for trainee music teachers: the result, a fall in trainee numbers, and fewer music teachers in 2027.

But, let me focus on the lines 59&60 about the aim for 1,000 extra teachers. I am afraid that this is pie in the sky.

This year there have been around 500 vacancies for music teachers in state schools across England. With pupil numbers falling over the next decade, our schools would not employ an extra 1,000 teachers even if we could recruit them.

This year’s 500 offers of training places have been made from less than 700 applications. That’s an offer rate of over three quarters and will probably result in fewer than 300 trainees.

If we want more teachers, then we need to increase the pipeline of graduates and either stop universities closing courses or design new teaching apprenticeships for those with skills in music not appreciated by traditional music degree courses.

Conference, we need more music in schools, whether primary, secondary, or special schools and certainly in Further education, the forgotten sector for non-vocational music making.

Let’s ensure it is the Liberal Democrats that makes this happen.

Support the motion Link to delivery at roughly 30.30 on the video F15 Music matters

But, let me focus on the lines 59&60 about the aim for 1,000 extra teachers. I am afraid that this is pie in the sky.

This year’s 500 offers of training places have been made from less than 700 applications. That’s an offer rate of over three quarters and will probably result in fewer than 300 trainees.

Conference, we need more music in schools, whether primary, secondary, or special schools and certainly in Further education, the forgotten sector for non-vocational music making.

Let’s ensure it is the Liberal Democrats that makes this happen.

Support the motion . Here is a link to the video Autumn Conference 2026 – Sunday Morning – YouTube my speech is at 30.30

Support the motion

70 Up

Posted on September 16, 2026 by John Howson

Like many of my generation, I watched 70 Up on TV last night with very mixed feelings. I first came across what was originally an ITV World in Action documentary called ‘7 UP’ when lecturing to trainee teachers at Oxford Polytechnic, as Oxford Brookes University then was, in the 1980s. The film was part of a module called ‘Societal Issues in Education’. The original documentary was about the lives and aspirations of 20 different children selected by the producer from schools across England. Eventually, it became series, revisiting the group every seven years.

Looking at the first part of 70 UP, the final two-part episode that both recalled the past lives of those willing to participate every seven years, and caught up with them for a final time at age 70, I was struck by what was missing from the series. No child with a visible disability, only a nod to even the possibility of multi-cultural Britian, as it already was becoming in 1964, when the original programme first aired. A group of children both very different from those that might be selected today, but in many ways a group still to be found in many schools today.

We have been privileged to share the lives of this particular group, and one must thank them for taking part in such a public recording of many aspects of their personal lives. Some played to the camera, and obviously enjoyed the experience; others didn’t, and dropped out, while others, while not enjoying the experience still participated.

What is striking, and heartwarming in the first part of 70 UP is the nature of relationships the group formed. Some survived, some didn’t. That’s not surprising, as the past 60 years have seen great changes in both divorce laws and the fluidity of relationships at all ages.

Every participant was a star. For many, the boy from the children’s home that went on to not only make a family with his partner, but also to foster 170 children in care, was a real star. Fostering demands real respect, as I know from my time as a county councillor just how difficult it is to recruit carers. If 70 UP persuades just one family to contact their local authority and offer to become carers it will have been worthwhile.

Not all the episodes were easy to watch, especially those filmed in the 1970s when teenagers were finding their feet. It is worth noting how many went to Oxford University, and that says much about the sampling, especially of the original participants from private schools.

The women in the group joined 7 UP before the equal opportunity’s legislation of the 1970s, and it shows in those that worked rather than had careers. There were also fewer of them, again I suspect a sign of the times and attitudes in the early 1960s, before the sexual revolution and the ‘swinging sixties’.

Next week, there will be the final part of the series. 70 UP had a new producer, the previous, and only other producer, died after 63 UP was produced. Not surprisingly, not all the original participants survived to 70.

Indeed, I worry, that the treatment of the death of one of the original group of participants reveals both the best and worst of television in its mission to entertain; inform and educate its viewers.

PISA 2025: Teachers still matter

Posted on September 9, 2026 by John Howson

The recent release of the 2025 international PISA study results has already received a lot of comment. PISA publications | OECD. This section of the OECD’s PISA Study report caught my eye, as you might imagine if would do, if you are a regular reader of this blog.

How is school life in the United Kingdom? PISA 2025 Results (Volume I): United Kingdom

Perceived shortages of human and material resources

In 2025, 48% of students in the United Kingdom were in schools whose principals reported that instruction was hindered, at least to some extent, by a perceived lack of teaching staff (OECD average: 39%); the corresponding share for a perceived lack of assisting staff was 39% (OECD average: 39%). The prevalence of perceived teaching staff shortages in the United Kingdom did not change significantly compared to 2022. However, principals’ concerns about inadequate or poorly qualified teaching staff increased from 19% in 2022 to 31% in 2025 (OECD average: 25% in both years).
PISA 2025 data reveal that perceived shortages of material resources remain a concern in most countries and economies. Some 24% of students in the United Kingdom attended schools whose principals reported that a lack of educational material (e.g. textbooks, IT equipment, library or laboratory material) hindered instruction, at least to some extent, and 34% were in schools where a lack of physical infrastructure (e.g. buildings, grounds, heating/cooling systems, lighting and acoustic systems) was perceived to hinder instruction. In 2022, the corresponding shares were 13% and 24%, respectively. PISA 2025 Results (Volume I): United Kingdom

So, the United Kingdom as a whole had a percentage of principals reporting that ‘instruction was hindered, at least to some extent, by a perceived lack of teaching staff (OECD average: 39%)’. I wonder what the figure might have been for just England? The difference between the United Kingdom and the OECD average was 9%. Interestingly, there was no difference for what OECD called ‘assisting staff’.

The issue became even worse when principals were asked about ‘inadequate or poorly trained staff’. Here the concerns rose from 29% in the 2022 survey, to 31% in 2025. This compared to an OECD average of 25% in both surveys.

Does the fact that the United Kingdom has a free market for teachers, with most vacancies advertised, and any teacher able to apply for any post make any difference to the scores? Assuming the PISA survey has a representative sample of schools across the United Kingdom, then the presence of a significant number of private schools in England, able to recruit qualified teachers more easily that state funded schools may skew the distribution of scare resources, such as physics teachers.

By chance the Education Policy Institute has just produced a report on recruitment versus retention of teachers. Recruit or Retain. Microsoft Word – EPI_RetrainRecruit_September2026

I will discuss that report in another post.

I think the obvious outcome of the PISA findings, is that the effect of a long period of teacher shortages. In the case of England, from between 2014 and 2025 in some subjects, is now being recognised in international surveys, such as PISA.

Hopefully, falling rolls, a changing labour market for graduates and better pay for teachers might mean the position improves in terms of teaching by specialist teachers by the next PISA study. However, it might take longer in an open labour market to close the gap between different types of schools and schools serving different socio-economic areas.

ITT crisis not yet over

Posted on September 4, 2026 by John Howson

What does it take to ensure all training places for graduates wanting to be a teacher are filled. The best chance of sufficient trainees is when the school population is in decline, the job market is challenging for graduates – especially new graduates – and existing teachers are not exiting the profession at the same rate as previously.

The current ITT position is governed by the fact that school rolls are falling, so fewer new teachers are needed; the graduate job market is beginning to feel the consequences of AI, or it may be for graduates in some subjects, such as computing. Although teachers leaving the profession, net of returners, has not changed much, the opportunities for teachers to work outside of England and not pay back their student loans is probably still increasing.

The 2026 targets for trainee numbers were cut by the DfE. We won’t know until the ITT census in December what the overall picture looks like, but the table below shows the position if all ‘accepted’ for courses covered by the DfE’s monthly statistics of numbers accepted were to turn up and be recorded in the 2026 ITT census.

Subject Target 2026/27 August offers Fill: August view August Accepted Fill on Accepted August
Chemistry 690 1530 YES 1362 YES
Biology 675 679 PROBABLY 492 NO
Mathematics 2000 3141 YES 2720 YES
Design & Technology 620 741 YES 659 YES
Art & Design 605 756 YES 624 YES
Geography 685 589 NO 496 NO
Classics 75 47 NO 39 NO
English 1980 1900 POSSIBLY 1587 NO
Drama 370 338 POSSIBLY 279 NO
Business Studies 1200 379 NO 283 NO
Music 260 283 YES 238 NO
Religious Education 450 367 NO 308 NO
Others 2035 527 NO 424 NO
History 520 1166 YES 995 YES
Modern Languages 1085 1409 YES 1201 YES
Physics 810 1649 YES 1434 YES
Physical Education 655 1608 YES 1359 YES
Computing 565 1041 YES 876 YES

The column to consider is the final one for the number accepted by August 17^th 2026 in the DfE monthly published statistics. Initial teacher training application statistics for courses starting in the 2025 to 2026 academic year – Apply for teacher training – GOV.UK

Despite the cuts to training places, some subjects are still unlikely to meet their reduced target, even though they have more trainees accepted than last year. However, the effect of AI may be seen in the increase in numbers accepted in computing.

The focus now should be on recruitment into the arts and social sciences, where some subjects only beat the target number by a very small margin, and others missed even the reduced requirement. Can the DfE afford to offer bursaries in these subjects without cutting the bursary elsewhere and risking a yo-yo effect of no bursary, a slump in applications.

Personally, I think al trainees should be treated equally, and that the DfE should not try to pick winners and losers. However, with funding tight, I cannot see that happening, even with a Secretary of State more likely to be sympathetic to teachers than some of her predecessors.

In passing, it is worth noting that applications from those in their 50s are below the numbers in the last cycle. All other groups have recorded increases, but for the ‘21 and under’ new graduates grouping, this is just 106 more applicants. For the 22-25 age groups it is just over 600 more application out a total of over 15,000.

The large increase in applications is for secondary courses, up from 38,169 in the last cycle to 43,365 this year. However, much of that increase has been fuelled by an increase in applicants from the ‘Rest of the world’ – up from 8,777 in the last cycle to 14,049 in this cycle, now accounting for more than 25% of applicants once those from the EEA are included in the total.

The September DfE data will be confirmatory, and few changes are expected that is unless those from overseas that have been ‘accepted’ fall foul of the government’s visa rules.

What of the class of 2027/28? With falling rolls, and the increasing effect of AI on jobs for new graduates, it seems likely a new golden age for teacher training may be dawning. However, this will result in casualties among providers: not all will survive.

This blog called the start of the supply crisis in 2013, and was condemned by the DfE for doing so. Perhaps it might be rewarded for charting what has happened over the next 13 years, and its predication for the future? But somehow I doubt it.

Travel, hotels, and senior citizens

Posted on September 3, 2026 by John Howson

In this my final holiday season post, I have reflected on some of my thoughts about hotels and other matters. (This should have appeared in August, but due to flight timings has been delayed until September)

Senior citizens are travelling much more than in the past, and often well into their 80s. For the most part many don’t need accessible rooms, but a few minor adjustments might make the experience more rewarding.

Hotel bathrooms

Firstly, the shower – Can the bottles of shampoo and bodywash be read by those that wear glasses? I have to use my glasses to find out which bottle is which. Larger lettering or some other form of identification would be helpful

Grab rails and even a built-in seat would be useful when it comes to washing one’s feet. Many senior citizens, myself included, are not as supple as we once were.

Rooms – hotel information should indicate if any rooms are over two floors. It’s great to be rewarded with an upgrade, but not if you have to climb stairs to reach the bedroom. One might certainly think twice before booking such a room.

Light controls near beds should have some form of soft light indicator for ease of switching on at , as many senior citizens may need to use the bathroom during the night, sometimes more than once and fumbling for the light switch is a nuisance

Food and drink

Offering the children’s menu might attract more custom from senior citizens, as some portions are too large for the third meal of the day. The other option is to skip the meal, meaning the hotel can lose money they might have made. Bar meals don’t seem to be a good alternative, as the menu is often restricted and carbohydrate high.

QR codes

Many senior citizens don’t use these, so an alternative might ensure business isn’t lost.

Toilets

Having to read the instruction book before using a Japanese style toilet is an interesting challenge that then requires remembering what each symbol means. Still, it is a better option than long-drop or compost toilets senior citizens encounter on tours to more remote areas.

Receipts

These are increasingly being offered as emails. A printed version allows for any issues to be picked up straightaway. Of course, if you haven’t bought anything other than a room paid for in advance, not viewing the bill might be a saving in time, especially if checking out at a popular time.

Staff

As with so many other areas in life, a few words with staff often pays dividends. Saying hello to housekeeping staff when you see them in the corridor might just ensure your room has extra attention to it even where you have stuck the wooded eco-friendly label about cleaning on the door.

Travel

Senior citizens now benefit from free travel in some cities. Certainly, tap on and tap off, using a credit card, has made using local travel so much easier, even though it means no human contact. However, timetables are often difficult to read and being replaced by the dreaded QR codes in some places.

Some coaches and minibuses have very limited legroom. It is worth checking before booking a tour or asking you travel agent to check. Five hours coach travel with less legroom than on an economy airflight is no joke.

Not back to normal, and once again posts about education

5 smiles and the MBacc

Posted on August 22, 2026 by John Howson

Congratulations to everyone that has received their examination results this summer. The waiting time is always a nervous one, especially for those that are experiencing the wait for the first time. So, to my third holiday post.

Staying in a range of hotels and two overnight train trips, set me thinking about how hotels have traditionally been classified, often by using a star grading from one to five. There is also an alternative of rosettes.

On this trip, I wondered about a classification based on smiles? One smile for the quality of the greeting by the door staff – earned if you are greeted with a smile and help with luggage. The second smile comes for the reception staff. Are they welcoming, however harassed they might be, do they make you feel welcome and build upon the feeling of enjoying the fact that you are using their hotel that started with the door staff?

Smiles three, four and five can be a little more general: housekeeping staff, if you pass them in the corridor, food and drink service staff whether in the bar or restaurant and any other staff you might encounter, from car parking to pool or arranging excursions. Do they all treat you as a person and a welcome guest?

On this trip, we have encountered some really good service, and some that might be better forgotten about.

So, why call this post, 5 smiles and the Mbacc? Perhaps, because hospitality ought to one of the key strands in the post-16 offering, whether a young person wants to continue to take a degree in the subject or starting working in the industry at 18, and hopefully before with a part-time job that allows the classroom theory to be experienced in practice.

Sadly, graduates, whether in hospitality of any other subject, will find accessing the working holiday vias scheme with Australia more of a challenge.

This excellent scheme that has allowed many Australians and Brits to visit the other’s country is now subject to a ‘slowing down’ by the Australian government in Canberra. The slowdown is a part of Australia’s response to a perceived need to cut immigration into The Commonwealth.

It will be interesting to see whether the UK government responds in any way. However, certainly for teachers, the numbers using the scheme are not what they were when it was first introduced. The link between the UK and Australia is not what is once was for generations such as mine, brought up on stories of the ‘outback’, Ned Kelly and Waltzing Matilda. Australia now looks much more towards the Pacific Region than the northern Hemisphere: one wonders about the remaining links with Britain and the future of the monarchy in Australia? Will Andy Burnham, the maker of the MBacc, also be the Prime Minister to preside over the ending of the links between the UK monarchy and Australia?

Planes, trains, but not automobiles

Posted on August 22, 2026 by John Howson

This is the second of my more light-hearted summer posts. The title comes from the 1987 movie directed by John Hughes and starring Steve Martin and John Candy. Appropriately enough, this post is being written while I am on a Boing 777 travelling over the Indian Ocean. Unlike in the film, my traveling companion is not a total stranger, but my twin brother, and our trip was planned several months ago. Our jeopardy was the result of Donald Trump’s war, as our route involved a stopover in Dubai.

Long-time readers of this blog may recall that in 2019, PC – pre-covid – together with my brother I wrote a travel book called Twin Tracks. The bok was about our interrail tour around Europe – Amazon may still have a few copies for sale. That journey was by rail. This trip has so far involved planes, a failed train trip, but with more rail adventures still to come, but no automobiles

The plane journeys, on an Emirates A380 and Boing 777 can pass with little comment, except to say that I find the A380 a much more pleasant, and quieter aeroplane than the 777, at least in business class.

So, on to the trains. One reason for stopping in Dubai was to try the UAE’s new railway line. When we booked our trip last November, before the war, we expected the railway to be fully open by summer 2026, including the Dubai station. Sadly, it is not. At present, the service runs non-stop from Abu Dhabi to Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman, bypassing Dubai.

We could still have taken the train, but it would have required a two-hour bus ride to the departure point, and another two-hour ride back. Tickets were also extremely hard to come by, and booking online required a local mobile phone number. As a result, we had to rethink our plans.

While considering the options, I reflected that the passenger line in the UAE isn’t the only delayed rail project. In the UK, there is HS2, of which the less raid the better, although most people now overlook the fact that the now hugely successful Elizabeth Line in London was also not only late, but also over budget.

The less said about the California Hugh speed Rail project or the sa=tation rebuild in /Germany, the better.

Of more concern to me is the government’s failure to open the new railway from Oxford (where I live) to Milton Keynes, creating a connection with the West Coast mainline. The line is currently one of the most expensive freight-only lines in England.

I won’t bother with an explanation here, but safe to say it is a good example of what was once called the British disease.

Anyway, back to Dubai and a decision to visit Fujairah by public transport, for a daytrip. Why, partly because it’s there, and partly after four visits to Dubai, I had never been to that Emirate. Research for the trip discovered a public bus – really a long distance coach – run by RTA the Dubai transport authority. Interestingly, traffic congestion in Dubai has led to the service being switch from the Bus Station at Union Square on the metro to the end of the Green Metro line at the oddly named E& station, whether the E700 now departs from the adjacent bus station. White elderly males are a rare sight on the Dubai metro and, I suspect an even rarer on the E700. Certainly, on our return trip we were the only Europeans we saw on either the metro or the bus.

The ride is through desert and the mountains that separate most of the UAE from the Gulf of Oman. There is a new bus station in Fujairah, and stands alone on the edge of the town, requiring a taxi ride to reach anywhere – so, we did use automobiles, even if not by desire, but like in the film, because of the force of circumstances.

Fortunately, taxis are cheap in the UAE, where petrol costs very little, so we asked our taxi driver to take us to a restaurant on the corniche coast road. An enjoyable fish lunch later, and we retraced our steps, avoiding spending any time out in the heat that reached over 110F while we were eating our lunch. Had I mentioned 110F some years ago, nobody would have has much notion of what such a temperature might feel like: not so now.

‘PedXing’, and ‘this way for the nuclear bunker’

Posted on August 6, 2026 by John Howson

August is known as the silly season. It is also the holiday season in the northern hemisphere. So, perhaps not surprisingly, this blog is having a bit of a holiday from writing just about education.

This post is being written from Dubai, so why the headline? Well, when I first visited the USA ,in the summer of 1968, these were the two signs that I saw that stuck in my mind. The first, because we have no word sign for pedestrian crossings in the United Kingdom at that time, the transport Ministry preferring pictograms. The second because, although only a couple of years after the Cuban Missile crisis, there were no signs in Britain of what people should do if the threat of nuclear war became a reality. Were the British just more phlegmatic, or just further away from the action? I suppose an ICBM from the USSR could have hit New York, and in the UK were were still more concerned about the threat of a conventional war. In the late 1960s, the British Armed forces still had over 50,000 troops stationed in Germany in case of a threat from the East.

As an aside, that threat in the summer of 1968, while I was in North America, came when Russian troops invaded what was then Czechoslovakia and put an end to the ‘Prague Spring’. In the USA, the threat turned out to be internal, not least to the Democratic Party with assassinations, and the riots outside the Democratic Party’s convention in Chicago.

But, back to the point of this post. After three days in Dubai and a visit to Fujairah, another Emirate in the UAE on the Gulf of Oman, I have seen no signs of either anxiety about what has been happening in the Gulf for the past six months, nor any warning to the population of what to do if there was a drone or missile attack. All feels exactly as it has been on my other visits to Dubai, the last of which was a recently as 2024. The building boom goes on, with ever more extravagant design for high rise buildings: bits chopped ot, bridges connecting two buildings at a high level, and almost any other non-functional design you can image, and a few you probably cannot.

To add an education note; the UAE, and especially Dubai is an important location for British-style schools, many independent schools have offshoots here, free from the demands of the VAT-person. There is also the offshoot of one state school: something I wrote about earlier. see What is the role of the State in schooling? | John Howson There are also many schools for the nationals from the Indian sub-continent that make up much of the workforce in Dubai where employees have been able to bring their families.

i did wonder whether I should have tried to export Drone Football as a new game on the back of the World Cup, but this was a holiday, so perhaps that’s for another time. If you are interested, drop me a note in the comments and I will put you in touch with the organisers of the game in Oxfordshire.

ITT: subjects recruiting from UK graduates still in trouble

Posted on June 22, 2026 by John Howson

The DfE’s June data on the current round of applications and offers for postgraduate ITT courses still revels that the 2026 round is separating into two distinct sections. Subjects where applications are likely to come from anywhere in the world are either already meeting their Teacher Supply Model target for 2026 entry, or should do so on the current trajectory. Subjects where home recruitment is likely to dominate applications seem more at risk of missing their targets.

Subject	Target 2026/27	offer May 2026	Fill: May view	June offers	Fill: June view
Chemistry	690	1015	YES	1199	YES
Biology	675	474	PROBABLY	542	POSSIBLY
Mathematics	2000	2169	YES	2495	YES
Design & Technology	620	481	YES	562	YES
Art & Design	605	527	YES	601	YES
Geography	685	407	POSSIBLY	455	NO
Classics	75	40	NO	43	NO
English	1980	1418	PROBABLY	1586	POSSIBLY
Drama	370	253	PROBABLY	283	PROBABLY
Business Studies	1200	270	NO	301	NO
Music	260	192	POSSIBLY	215	PROBABLY
Religious Education	450	269	POSSIBLY	308	NO
Others	2035	418	NO	456	NO
History	520	872	YES	974	YES
Modern Languages	1085	1107	YES	1214	YES
Physics	810	1342	YES	1466	YES
Physical Education	655	1298	YES	1405	YES
Computing	565	686	YES	794	YES

Based upon ‘offer’ recorded in the June update from the DfE, and with just three more reports to come before courses commence, I have made four downgrades and one upgrade to my expected outcomes for the current recruitment round.

I have downgraded expected outcomes for, biology, geography, English and Religious Education, including reducing Religious Education to a ‘No’. however, I am aware that there is a vigorous advertising campaign currently underway by the Religious Education sector, reminiscent of the RETRI initiative led by Dr John Gay a quarter of a century ago. Success in attracting new applicants could mean that it would be possible to hit the target for Religious Education. I do wonder why more subject groups don’t invest in advertising the benefits of becoming a teacher.

If science graduates discover there is space for those with some biology, then that subject might reach its target. Music looks likely to meet the target, but that target, in my opinion, has been set far too low to meet demand from schools, especially with the DfE’s latest initiative on extra-curricular activities for all, including within the scope, music. It will be difficult to achieve success in music without more teachers. However, meeting the low target will justify the removal of the bursary for music ITT.

Applications from outside of the United Kingdom represented 25% of all applications this June compared with 18% in the data for June 2025. If all non-Uk applicants had applied for secondary sector courses, then they would currently account for more than a third of applicants across all subjects, compared with a quarter in June 2025.

More evidence of the lack of interest in teaching from hone-based students comes from the fact that the number of graduates in the age group ’21 and under’ applying for courses is only 115 higher this June at 3,685 compared with an increase in applications of nearly 2,000 from the ’30 to 34’ age grouping.

The increasing interest in teaching from men continues, with applications up from 16,796 in June 2025 to 21,774 this June! It would be useful to know more about where this increase is focussed, and what the implications might be for the sector.

As ever, the DfE continues not to share ethnicity data with the sector. With so many overseas applicants at present, is that a helpful omission from the dataset?

Higher Education continues to bear the brut of the increase in applications, with ‘partner led’ and ‘salaried’ routes static, and only a small increase in applications to SCITT courses. However, PG teaching apprenticeships have seen a healthy increase in applications from 6,328 to 10, 493. However, offers are little changed at 1,066, compared with 966 in June 2025.

Perhaps because of the arrival of the postgraduate apprenticeship route, offers for the ‘salaried route was only 266 this June, compared with 518 in June 2025. Mr Gove’s brave new world of 15 years ago now looks like a distant dream, as higher education continues to take the bulk of applications, proving the resilience of the sector in the face of determined onslaughts during the coalition government to remove its dominance from the training of new graduate teachers.

With the end of the school term rapidly approaching, the next three months traditionally see relatively few new offers: will this year be any different, especially given the press comments about graduates unable to find work, or does teaching still look like an unattractive carer to debt strapped UK graduates?

With falling rolls affecting job prospects after training and the acquisition of more student debt, and a possible below inflation pay settlement, the signs for increased interest in teaching as a career during the rest of the recruitment round are not good.

Falling rolls in London: much worse than the rest of England

Posted on June 12, 2026 by John Howson

In my last post on this blog, I looked at the worsening of primary PTRs across much of the DfE’s ‘Inner London’ area. Falling Rolls: Is the funding formula making matters worse? | John Howson

This post looks how ‘Inner London boroughs have fare compared with the rest of England over those three years?

I think it is fair to say that London as a whole really has seen a significant downturn in primary pupil numbers. There are 22 local authorities where primary pupil numbers as published by the DfE have reduced by 5% or more between 2023/24 and 2025/26. Of these, 13 are London boroughs, and six – seven if Newham is included – are Inner London boroughs.

Seven of the top 10 places for the largest percentage decline in primary pupil numbers are filled by London boroughs. The other three places are taken by the Isle of Wight, Rutland and Torbay, three of the smallest unitary authorities in England.

Birmingham, Manchester and Leicester are the only large cities in the table. They fill three of the four bottom places for local authorities with a decline in pupil numbers of five per cent or more, along with Hillingdon in West London.

At the other end of the table, there are few London boroughs with less than a two per cent decline in their primary pupil populations.

London boroughs at this end of the table seem to be mostly outer London boroughs on the fringe of the metropolitan area. By contrast, there are seven county councils in the list of lowest declines in pupil numbers. This number increases to eight, if the Staffordshire figure, of an increase in pupil numbers, is correct.

The London boroughs will have the numbers in reception for each year, and will know how much worse the decline is likely to become over the next few years. More school closures look inevitable unless the funding model is changed to protect schools with declining rolls.

Not to protect the school estate in London is to assume that there will never be an upturn in pupil numbers. In cities, closing schools and selling off the site for housing means that in any upturn land may not be available for any new schools needed for the extra pupils. This is where thinking for the longer-term is important. During the last downturn of this size, most schools in London remained open, although some, such as Stamford Hill Infant and Junior School in Haringey, where I attended in the 1950s, did eventually close. Interestingly, the one form entry St Anne’s Church of England Primary School, close to Stamford Hill School that wasn’t actually in Stamford Hill, is still open.

However, this is not the post to discuss whether or not, in a more secular society, faith run schools should be closed where an alternative non-faith school can absorb the pupils. But this is an issue to debate, especially in urban areas.

In villages, the church-run school may still be the only school available, and that raises a much larger question about who should run state funded schooling? As the Wesleyan Methodists put it when faced by the 1902 Act, and decisions on whether to open state-funded secondary schools; are our teachers, teachers of children or teachers of Methodist children?

John Howson

Education and the numbers that affect what happens

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