What do geography and classic have in common? Based on the July data on numbers accepted for places on postgraduate teacher preparation courses, there won’t be enough applicants to meet the DfE target in these subjects. These two subjects are joined, in my estimation, by drama, business studies, religious education, and the catchall ‘other subjects’.

Despite some 57,765 applicants this cycle recorded in the July data, released by the DfE this morning, the teacher supply crisis cannot be said to be over until every subject has sufficient trainees to meet the DfE’s targets.  Initial teacher training application statistics for courses starting in the 2026 to 2027 academic year – Apply for teacher training – GOV.UK

The table shows my views about outcomes, based upon the July 2026 data for numbers accepted by subject. I haven’t included primary, because I don’t think there will be an issue with that sector, where acceptances for ‘general’ primary courses are up from 10,359 in July 2025 to 10,481 this July.

Subject	Target 2026/27	July offers	Fill: July view	July Accepted	Fill on accepted
Chemistry	690	1460	YES	1302	YES
Biology	675	629	PROBABLY	466	POSSIBLY
Mathematics	2000	2953	YES	2567	YES
Design & Technology	620	701	YES	630	YES
Art & Design	605	709	YES	590	YES
Geography	685	549	NO	466	NO
Classics	75	45	NO	37	NO
English	1980	1835	POSSIBLY	1535	POSSIBLY
Drama	370	318	POSSIBLY	263	NO
Business Studies	1200	357	NO	267	NO
Music	260	266	YES	220	YES
Religious Education	450	349	NO	294	NO
Others	2035	508	NO	414	NO
History	520	1112	YES	952	YES
Modern Languages	1085	1363	YES	1172	YES
Physics	810	1600	YES	1438	YES
Physical Education	655	1551	YES	1326	YES
Computing	565	961	YES	808	YES

The late announcement of the ITT targets may have had some effect on provider outcomes. Acceptances are down in all age groupings, save for the 22 year-olds, where the increase is a mere five more acceptances than in July last year – this difference may be down to the date the report was run: the 20^th July this year.

Overall acceptances are down from 25,422 in July 2025 to 24,048 this July, a reduction of more than 1,400.

Previous posts have discussed the significant percentage of applicants listed as from the ‘Rest of the world’. This month the number accepted from the ‘Rest of the world’ group was 1,662 compared with 1,657 last July. Because of the increase in applications from this group, the percentage ‘accepted’ has dropped from 19% of the group last July, to 12% in July 2026.

Growth in the number of applications from students in the home regions, apart from London, has remained sluggish, and has actually fallen in two regions (North East and Yorkshire & The Humber).

Taken as a whole, these are a mixed set of outcomes. July is sufficiently far through the recruitment cycle to make predictions about outcomes, as already highlighted.

Despite fears of graduate unemployment, the post finals period doesn’t seem to have resulted in a significant increase in home student applicants. Home students remain the key to ensuring all subjects are able to fill their target number of places. Even with the reduction is places in some subjects, as a result of ‘falling rolls’, as indicated earlier, not all subjects will hit their targets in this cycle.

The previous Secretary of State seemed to pay little attention to teacher supply issues. I hope that the present office holder will ask her civil servants, ‘what do we need to do to assure sufficient trainees across the board, but not far too many in history and physical education; and why is there such variation from year to year in the biology and chemistry numbers, even if, this year there might be enough to fill all the ‘science’ places’.

Finally, it may be that applicants are starting to vote with their feet in favour of routes into teaching that don’t require the acquisition of further debt.

Applications by route	2026 cycle	2025 cycle	difference	Accepted July 2026
Partner Led	17419	17977	-558	4162
SCITT	16812	16867	-55	6315
HE	33719	33723	-4	11692
Salaried	8169	7634	535	311
Degree apprenticeships	1935	1079	856	1342
Apprenticeships	11944	7335	4609	234
All applications	89998	84615	5383

However, the sector has not been able to respond to this trend, and courses incurring additional debt still dominate the routes into teaching. It is time for this to change. Incidentally, the government must now concede that higher educations till plays the dominant role in teacher preparation, something the recently appointed UCET leaders will no doubt be keen to remind the new Secretary of State about.