Category Archives: technology

AI and schools: progress since 2018

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Sometimes a visitor to this blog can uncover one of the 1,750 posts that I have completely forgotten about. One such as a post about Artificial Intelligence (AI) that I wrote eight years ago after a Report from a House of Lords Committee AI and education – The view of the House of Lords Committee | John Howson

The DfE at that time were talking about creating some 8,000 new teachers of computing. Isn’t it  interesting how often politicians offer up the promise of large number of new teachers with no funding to allow schools to employ them, even if they could be recruited (think of the present government’s 6,500 promise).

In November 2018, according to the DfE’s Workforce Census, School workforce in England: November 2018 – GOV.UK there were 3,954 teachers of computing working in state secondary schools. Together they taught some 31,190 hours, mostly at Key Stage 3 (3,954) with only 964 hours at Key Stage 5, but 2,289 at Key Stage 4.

Fast forward to the 2025 Workforce Census, and the number of those teaching computing had increased to 7,784. Together they delivered some 64,923 hours of learning. An impressive increase, even against the increase in the number of pupils over the same period.

However, using the DfE’s methodology of counting teachers and subjects, the overall hours taught has changed little between 2018 and 2025, from 3,550,691 in 2018 to 3,553,755 in 2025. Overall teacher numbers teaching across all subjects also remained remarkably statics at 219,269 in 2018 and 219,296 in 2025.

Against these numbers, the increase in teachers of computing, or computer science as it is now termed, is noteworthy, at an increase 3,730, doubling the number of teachers teaching the subject. However, it is still 50% below the 2018 number of 8,000 additional teachers put forward by the DfE.

In my original 2018 post, I also wondered about the moral and ethical issues surrounding AI. I wrote the following:

‘The Committee recognised that the 2014 change to the curriculum on IT in schools across England needed time to take effect. However, the removal of any consideration of moral and ethical issues to do with social media and digital technology from the curriculum was regretted by some witnesses; no doubt more so over recent weeks as the various concerns over social media and the handling of personal data have emerged. Personally, I think the downgrading of Religious Education at examination level, where there was a real opportunity to discuss issues of ethic, morality and philosophy, by excluding the subject from the EBacc was a mistake.’

The hours taught for religious education have increased since then; rising from 117,408 in 2018 to 117,772 in 2025.  The percentage of teachers with a relevant post ‘A’ qualification has also increased from 64% to 81.5% for computer science – as it is now termed – and from 54.1% to 72% for religious education.

However, it is worth noting that at Key Stage 3, where pupils are introduced to subjects, the percentage of qualified teachers in 2025 was still only 76.1% for computer science and even lower at 65.9% for religious education.

It seems the foundations of both subjects in secondary schools are still being taught by those least likely to have a qualification in the subject. Whether or not they are also trained teachers isn’t possible to determine form the simple Teacher Workforce publications.

One wonders what the DfE’s policy for both subjects is in the Curriculum Review. Both are key subjects for our modern age, and I would like to thank the reader that reminded me of my 2018 post, and thus, prompted this one.

Oxford Teacher Services Ltd: new owners

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Way back in 2013, I set up Oxford Teacher Services Ltd to show how the simple collection of teacher vacancies then being published by schools on their web sites could significantly reduce the cost of advertising teacher vacancies. Eventually, the DfE created a vacancy website that although not perfect did help change the dynamics of teacher recruitment advertising.

Post covid, and my appointment as cabinet member for children’s services in Oxfordshire between 2023 and 2025, I wound down the work of Oxford Teacher Services, although I did manage to help the UAE with their concerns about a teacher supply model, and continued monitoring both ITT and teacher labour market statistics.

Yesterday, Oxford Teacher Services Ltd was sold to OXIE Holdings Ltd. This company is in the forefront of dealing with aspects of AI in schooling, and also the development of ‘drone football’.

You can find out more about OXIE at Oxford Innovative Education – Empowering critical minds and future voices and

‘drone football’ at Drone Football – Oxford Innovative Education

And you can contact them at: bbone@oxie.org.uk

I believe that ‘drone football’ has a great future. Why not book a trial event for a day, for your school, company or youth group. ‘Drone football’ can also be booked for birthday parties. ‘Drone football’ will also be showcased at a number of science fairs over the next year.

I will still continue to monitor labour market data through dataforeducation, and will publish a report early in January on headteacher turnover in England during the 2025-26 school year. If you would like more information about that work, please contact me either through the comment section or by email.

I would like to thank everyone that has helped make the work of Oxford Teacher Services Ltd possible during the past 13 years, and I wish it well for the future as a part of OXIE holdings.

Missing from the budget

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Education didn’t really feature in the budget.

I had hoped that there might be help for 16-18 year-olds in rural areas to access education. Instead, the Chancellor announced that he would help families with younger children through the Bus Fund.

Line 67 Bus Travel: Fund free bus travel for children aged 5-15 in England  from 1 August 2026 until 31 August 2026.

I am sorry he didn’t pick up on the 16-18 issue in rural areas, as it is something I have been campaigning about for years now.

The Chancellor also announced a cut in Red Diesel: Reduce duty rates by 3.7p-per-litre from 15 June 2026 to 1 July 2027 Will that help local authorities with their school transport bills? Sadly, I k not. Another missed opportunity?

Other mentions about education in the budget needed hunting out.

6.122 Books for children – The government will provide £5 million a year for three years from 2027-28 to increase the provision of books for pre-school children, supporting organisations such as the Dolly Parton Imagination Library and BookTrust.

Saldy, that won’t buy many books. For example, if 100,000 children qualified, they would receive £5 worth of books each. Hopefully, the books will circulate, so each child will have access to many books per year. But that approach increases overheads, so I am surprised not to see a match-funded scheme that could leverage more cash for the project.

6.124 School Physical Education (PE) & Sport funding – Funding to the Department for Education will increase by £60 million per year to contribute to the cost of new PE & Sport partnerships, due to be rolled out in England in 2027.

No mention of uprating the music grant by inflation. The grant hasn’t been uprated since 2014, along with a couple of other grants in the DfE’s budget.

Capital spending on education projects is likely to fall as the Treasury raids capital budgets to help fund extra defence spending. The capital spending ‘outurn’ in 25/26 was £6bn, and is expected to £8.1bn in 26/27, before falling back to £7.5bn for the next three years to 2029/30. Hope possibly for schools still awaiting the  removal of ‘bad concrete’, but not much sign of a replacement policy for schools that are time expired, especially as s costs have been increasing due to inflation.

Teachers will be glad to know that on page 34 of the Budget book the government is aware that

‘ DfE’s AI lesson-planning tool is saving teachers an average of around three hours a week, reducing administrative burdens and freeing up more time for teaching and other school responsibilities.’ Budget 2026 – Breathing Space for today, Fresh hope for the future

Overall, a very dull budget for education that will give little confidence to the sector.

Finally, the retention of business rates is good for many communities, but not for university towns such as Oxford, where students don’t pay Council Tax, and the universities often avoid business rates. Hopefully, the overnight levy will at least allow some income from conference visitors and tourists to the city.

Might there be another December general election?

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The present opinion polling might make the possibility of a snap December general election more likely, especially if the Burnham Bounce continues, and both Reform and the Green Party drift downward in the polls. As a result, other Parties will be probably putting together a skeleton manifesto, just in case an election is called.

Here are my suggestions about an education section of a manifesto to the Liberal Democrats, the Party I support. These are my own views, and some are more controversial than others.

Raise free travel to school from 16 to 18

At present there is free travel to nearest school if over three miles, up to age 16. In London,  young people aged 16-17 can get free and discounted travel on all our transport services with a Zip Oyster photocard. 16+ Zip Oyster photocard – Transport for London In Birmingham, 16-18s get discounted tickets to and from an education establishment in term-time. In Manchester, Our Pass gives 16-18 year olds free bus travel* across Greater Manchester and Our Pass is not just a bus travel card – cardholders will have access to lots of opportunities, experiences and benefits.

Young people living outside the large urban areas deserve the same rights to access education.

An expert teacher in every classroom

Parents and pupils expect their teachers to be properly trained. Many are not, especially in schools in rural areas and disadvantaged areas where teacher recruitment is challenging. The policy would only grant certification (QTS) for limited areas, where a teacher has the appropriate knowledge and qualification. A school could use a teacher to cover a vacancy or long-term absence, but such teachers, if not qualified, would need emergency accreditation. This would last for no more than two school-years. During that time, the staff member would be expected to undertake appropriate certification through professional development paid for by the school. The DfE would be expected to publish a report to parliament each year on the use of uncertified teachers by schools. The term ‘teacher’ would be come a recognised reserved occupation term, in line with the situation on other professions

Free School lunches to eleven

All primary school children, and those in middle schools, would be entitled to a free school lunch. This extends the policy of free school meals for infant school pupils introduced by the coalition and announced at the Lib Dems Conference in Glasgow.

Renewable energy for all schools

Local areas would be offered matching funding for solar, wind and heat pump installations with the remainder of the funding coming from a ‘social’ bond’ open to local residents in the first instance.  Rural schools would be encouraged to become energy resilience hubs for their local community, providing emergency power sources when the grid isn’t functioning because of storms, flooding or other reasons. Rural areas already generate power for other parts of the country. This scheme would ensure a local payment scheme. As well as providing power for the school.

The curriculum

Any curriculum change would be fully staffed. The curriculum would ensure all pupils received the basic skills and knowledge, supported by funding to ensure all pupils, even with special needs, can achieve their maximum potential. The secondary school curriculum would reflect that fact that young people entering school in 2026 will be working into the 2080s.

Testing

Public examinations at sixteen would be replaced by cheaper national tests based upon sampling techniques. Pupil’s progress should not be determined by rigid rules. There would be a focus on raising standards by ensuring well-qualified teachers.

Testing for national standards would be retained at the end of Key Stage 2 and Foundation Stage to help identify the best use of resources.

School Funding

In a period of declining school rolls, and parental choice, funding schools on a per-pupil basis risks under-funding disadvantaged schools. This is especially the case in areas where there are selective schools. Many of these schools are over-capacity, while the non-selective schools are required to function well below capacity, and with less funding as a result.

All schools should be funded to a level where they can deliver an appropriate curriculum. Improvements in technology should allow for actual salary funding for schools, rather than the average salary funding that disadvantages some schools with experienced staff, but falling rolls.

There is a case to be made for a universal secondary school and college system to meet the needs of all 11-18 year-olds

Effective post-sixteen education

Consideration would be given to how pupils could be offered a choice of routes and subjects that best meet their needs in a planned manner. With falling rolls, not all schools and colleges would be able to offer and effective curriculum for all.

Enjoying school

Most primary school children enjoy school, but attendance and enjoyment both drop off between the ages of 11-16. The current DfE opinion polling would be widened to take more account of the views of young people, and the challenges they face in a rapidly changing society where they will be voters before they complete their education, if the voting age is reduced to 16, as we support.

Every child has a right to education

The state does not require children to attend school, but to be educated. Home Schooled children often receive a good quality education, but along with those educated in private schools there should be a system of inspection and support. No child should ever be without a school. A virtual school for pupils either moving into an area or excluded from a school should enrol such pupils from day one to ensure no break in their education. Much can be learnt from the best of the virtual schools for looked-after young people.

Inspection

Ofsted needs reform, but to underpin a national assessment of schools there needs to be a local framework of advisors and inspectors that can support and encourage teachers and school leaders. No school should be surprised by any national assessment if it has been working effectively with  local teams drawn from school middle and senior leaders. Such teams also provide a career path for those interested in progressing carers in teaching and learning and not school leadership.

An education system for all

Falling rolls, a fractured operating system of academy trusts, local authorities and dioceses does not make for an effective local education system. Decisions are haphazard, and may create competing and poorly funded outcomes. In the short-term the current Schools Forums would be reconstituted as a local education planning forum to ensure resources are not wasted, and young people can receive the best outcomes from their time in education.

A new deal for teachers

Teachers’ contracts have barely changed in the last 60 years, apart from the directed working time of 1,265 hours for those not on the leadership scale. While other graduates now expect four weeks paid holiday, up to 10 public holidays, and not to work between Christmas and after New Year, teachers still work an employer-driven flexi-time, where periods when children are not in school are expected to compensate for long-hours worked during term-time. Such an imbalance makes recruiting staff, and especially graduates challenging and needs a comprehensive review by the School Teachers Review Body (STRB).

The ITT Census versus September acceptances

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In my previous post, I said at the end of the post that  I would look at what any differences between the August ITT acceptance data issued by the DfE earlier today, and the ITT census to be issued in December 2026 might be, by looking at the difference between those accepted in September 2025 and the ITT Census of December 2025.

In reality, this task has proved something more  of a challenge that I had expected. This is mostly because of the late announcement of the targets for September 2026. These were not announced until April 2026, by which time many subjects had already made offers in excess of the new, and lower, targets. The fact that the targets for 2026 were in many subjects drastically reduced has made the analysis almost impossible.

Because of the reduction in the targets, it is possible that the outcome of the 2026 ITT Census could be the best year in terms of hitting targets since 2012, especially once Teach First and any other non-DfE portal recruitment is factored into the census.

However, there are a few subjects that rely almost entirely upon the DfE portal for recruitment that we now know are very unlikely to meet even the revised target for September 2026.

These are: Business Studies; Classics, Drama; Religious Education and the catch-all ‘Other’ that includes media and communication studies, social studies, citizenship and psychology.

Although how the ‘other’ subjects grouping reaches a target of 2,035 places remains a bit of a mystery. As I have advocated elsewhere, it is now time to breakdown the ’other category’ into its component subject targets to allow for meaningful discussions about teacher supply. With around one in eight places in the ‘other’ category and the category recruiting very poorly it is time for a more meaningful discussion about the classifications used by the DfE for its IIT targets.

A reminder of how the targets have changed this year when compared to the previous year

2025/262026/27
Total26,92020,800
PrimaryTotal7,650 5,520
SecondaryTotal19,270 15,280
Art and Design680605
Biology985675
Business Studies9001,200
Chemistry730690
Classics6075
Computing895565
Design and Technology965620
Drama620370
English1,9501,980
Geography935685
History790520
Mathematics2,3002,000
Modern Foreign Languages1,4601,085
Music565260
Others2,5202,035
Physical Education725655
Physics1,410810
Religious Education780450

 Some years ago, the total was nearer 40,000 trainees, so this has been a dramatic reduction.

When were secondary trainee targets last as low as 15,280? Not for some time. I will do  a search and see if I can find out the last time the targets were this low for both primary and secondary trainees. As these targets now include almost all routes, it will be interesting to see whether when they were last this low were there no ‘off target’ numbers such as the former employment-based routes?  

Mixed results across the ITT targets this September

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Earlier this year, (in April) the DfE slashed the targets for new trainee teachers, citing falling rolls. In some case, this won’t have made a difference because either the new target was still unattainable or those in ITT had already exceeded the new target, and presumably couldn’t or wouldn’t withdraw offers already made.

So, what does the landscape look like this September, now that the DfE has released the data that will be close to the final outcomes for courses, at least those recruiting through the DfE portal. The Teach First, and other such programmes must be added to the data. However, before the ITT census there will undoubtedly be some dropouts or no-shows to courses. As a result, the September numbers accepted should provide a good idea of the basis for calculating the number of new teachers emerging onto the state school labour market for September 2027. (Take of 6% for in-course-wastage, and then 15-20% of the remainder for those not wanting to teaching state schools – these are conservative percentages). This means there may well be shortages in some subjects, especially the arts that Labour seemed to want to espouse, as the table shows.

The final percentages for mathematics and physics may well depend upon how many overseas students can obtain a visa, firstly to study and then to work in England?

It really is time to open up what the DfE means by ‘others’, and include some more actual subjects in the list. Computing may be the first subject to be benefitting from concern over the loss of jobs to AI.

I very much doubt  whether the total for music, biology, religious education, design and technology, geography and English will be enough to meet the needs of schools in 2027. Rolls across the country just are not falling that fast, whatever is happening in London.

I am not sure what the DfE has calculated for the effects oof VAT on the private school sector, but if numbers fell in that sector, the sector would need to recruit fewer teachers. This would only have an impact if it was a reduction in overseas student numbers, as, presumably, home students would transfer into the state system, requiring more teachers, even at the worse pupil-teacher ratio of the state sector.

Where are acceptances down on last year?

Applications submitted were 62,633 this year, compared with 55,637 last year. However, accepted numbers were down from 26,714 to 24,850 meaning an increase of more than 4,000                                           applicants rejected.

The number of acceptances fell across all age groups, larger falls were in the age-groups normally associated with career switchers, and there were relatively small falls for new graduates. This is encouraging news for the long-term health of the profession, as younger trainees that stay the course should provide for the cadre of future leaders.

Most of the fall in acceptances were of females: down from 17,918 to 16,189, with males just declining from 8,516 to 8,382. This may reflect the greater number of females that apply for primary sector courses.

More worrying is the fact that while acceptances from ‘rest of the world’ applicants remained steady at 1,440 this year compared with 1,428 last year, most UK regions witnessed a decline in acceptances.  There were 9,661 acceptances for primary phase courses compared with 9,887 last year, while secondary phase acceptances declined from 16,829 to 15,190.

Apprenticeships bucked the trend, witnessing more acceptances (1,453 against 1,310 for PG and 261 against 198 for degree apprenticeships). Salaried route acceptances slumped from 618 to just 304, presumably as a result of the apprenticeship route, which may be cheaper for schools.

Finally, all training provider regions witnessed a decline in acceptances, with fewer than 1,000 trainees across the North East region being accepted ( 911 compared with 1,078 last year).

If I have time, I will compare the 2026 September acceptances with   census to measure whether there is any significant amount of change between the two datasets.

Vocational education: Closing doors or widening opportunities?

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The education of young people has had quite an airing over the past week. At the Liberal Democrats conference, Munira Wilson MP, the Party’s Education spokesperson at Westminster, gave a platform speech that foreshadowed the announcement by Lucy Powell, the Secretary of State, about post-14 vocational education.

You can see Munira’s speech on YouTube. I suggest starting at 1 hour 38 minutes into the video lib dem conference 2026 autumn saturday afternoon session – Search

In her speech, Munira raised one of the key dilemmas of education. How to promote ambition without encouraging many young people to leave their communities to seek to achieve their ambitions? Many that leave our rural and coastal communities (the source of another debate at the conference) to fulfil an educational ambition, often at university, never return.

I believe that governments should be encouraging these young people to return and set up businesses in rural and coastal communities as part of regeneration schemes.

Labour’s,  Lucy Powell’s, focus was one the perennial issue within the British education system: how to resolve classroom and practical subjects at examination level in terms of parity of esteem? Labour answer is to recreate courses for 14-16 year olds in practical subjects, such as construction, care and business. New Vocational GCSEs unveiled in major shake-up to hands-on learning for teens – GOV.UK

In 2003, I wrote a paper for the Liberal Democrats entitled ‘No child left behind’ – a phrase borrowed from US President Bush – in which I advocated a 14-18 sector. I recognised that many young people at 14 were disillusioned with school, but might be brought back into education if they were offered courses more aligned with their career ambitions. Now, I understand Munira’s point that at 14 she wanted to be a teacher, but as a graduate went into a different career. Munira no doubt already wanted to go to university at 14.

But, what of those, the Newsom 50%, Half Our Future: A tribute to Sir John Newsom’s Report | John Howson  that don’t aspire to stay in education. At what age should we help them on the path to a working life? In 2003, I suggested links with further education, and its more grown- up approach and better facilities than many schools can provide for practical courses.

Labour’s announcement this week, ahead of their conference, seemed a bit rushed. Nothing about where to find the staff to teach  these new vocational subjects in schools? Nothing about the issue of ‘norm’ referencing in examinations. How do you ‘norm reference’ the building of a wall in a construction class or the creation of a meal in a hospitality course? Trying to create national standards will be a real challenge.

Both Munira, and then Lucy Powell, did speak about the need for more work experience in schools. Again, this is something that I support wholeheartedly, but again how do we deal with the limited opportunities in our rural and coastal communities? As so often in education, it will come down to who will pay for the transport?

However, NEETs are not just an education issue. Any government that is responsible for an economy that is not producing jobs for either young people of those made redundant in their 40s and 50s, has two choices, either benefits or some form of education and training provision, if it wants to keep down the numbers unemployed. With AI likely to recreate the job scene in a new format, the issue of the relationship between education and employment isn’t going to go away anytime soon.

Social mobility and the far right

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The announcement that that Social Mobility Commission is to be abolished was announced when I was on holiday. As a result, I have only just caught up with news of its demise – one of the few QUANGOs to escape previous culls. While the term ‘class’ for its replacement within the civil service may be more ‘in your face’ than ‘social mobility’, I suppose it fits better with the debate about ‘White working class boys’ that has featured in many discussions about educational attainment during the past decade.

I am sad to see the Commission abolished. Taking work back into government departments inevitably makes policy discussion less transparent, and places greater emphasis on the work of think tanks. The Commission has had something of a chequered history, as might be expected given its role and the fact that rt worked under a Conservative government for most of its life. I documented one such event in this blog post from 2017 Social Mobility Commission | John Howson that interestingly also mentioned AI, and the risk of the rise of the ‘far right’.

‘With the IT revolution once again picking up speed, and predications of massive job losses from the growth in Artificial Intelligence awakening the Luddite mentality in many of us, the Commission must act not only as the government’s conscience on social mobility, but also as a source of genuine new policies that are radical and forward thinking. More of the same just won’t work.

We have seen in Germany that the failure to ensure the success of the economy across the whole country has inevitably led to the rise of the far right in politics. Social mobility is important, but we cannot ignore those left behind. They must not become the poor relations kept, for ever, out of sight.’ Social Mobility Commission | John Howson Still, it is sad to see a Labour government abolish it.

I had a number of discussions with officials at the commission over the years, most notably about teacher supply matters. The following post followed the publication of one of the Commission’s reports in 2019  We cannot ignore those left behind | John Howson and also shows that, even under Conservative control, those of us from all political parties concerned about the issue of deprivation and education were able to have our voice heard: such is the value of good quality scrutiny.

One of the key outputs from the Social Mobility Commission was its annual State of the Nation Report. It will be a disappointment to lose that scrutiny, and I hope civil servants will either want to continue it or ask The Office for National Statistics to take it over. Here are a couple of links to my blog posts about the report:

Class rules: not OK | John Howson

Industrial revolutions alter a country’s geography | John Howson

Birds of a feather | John Howson

As I write this on a Sunday morning, I am reminded of the phrase in Matthew’s gospel at Chapter 26 and Verse 11: ‘The poor you will always have with you.’

That statement is not an admission of defeat, but a call to arms’. Abolishing the Social Mobility Commission must not weaken our mission for a more equal society. Now, I wonder where that advocation will feature any policy resulting from the spending of the £76 million pounds received by a political party this week?

Wearable glasses: a need for a new school rule?

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This post on LinkedIn caught my eye recently. It adds yet another challenge to schools trying to keep pupils and staff safe in an ever-changing world, where technology is continually throwing up new challenges.

A small request as the new academic year begins. As Meta glasses and other wearable technologies become more common, ‘covert’ recording in classrooms is going to become increasingly easy. I get that it happens, maybe it shouldn’t but it does.

Personally, I really don’t mind being recorded; if a student genuinely thinks having a recording of part of a session will help them revisit an explanation or support their learning, I’m pretty relaxed about it. ,Indeed, if the reason was genuine, I’d probably be quite happy that there’s another way for you to digest the information I’m trying to deliver.

But please ask first.

Ater reading this post, and considering the debate around mobile phones in schools, I wonder if I can see a new school rule being developed, perhaps along the following lines:

Any pupils, staff and visitors wanting to wear glasses on school premises must register a photograph of those glasses with the school office, and notify the school office of any change.

Pupils and visitors should be aware that cameras at entry points and classroom doors check anyone entering the school wearing glasses to ensure that they are of the registered design.

The rule is to protect everyone (pupils and staff) from the use of unregistered recordings within the school premises. It is just an extension of the current photo pass rules, but adapted to cope with new technology.

If we are going to be wiped out as a species by AI, sometime before my 90th birthday, then is this issue worth worrying about. I don’t know, but I do know keeping vulnerable young people safe is an essential role for the State, and its agents, as well as private sector organisations that offer services to young people and vulnerable adults.

I would be interested to hear what others think? Over-reaction, as I think knife arches are in schools, or a sensible approach to a possible problem? What degree of risk are we willing to accept? I don’t want knife arches in schools | John Howson

It was the mass killing of pupils 30 years ago in Dunblane  that started the drive to ensure the safety of those in schools. So far, compared with what is happening around the world, especially in countries where guns are commonplace, England has avoided large scale attacks, but, as I know from personal experience, one attack is one too many.

ITT crisis not yet over

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What does it take to ensure all training places for graduates wanting to be a teacher are filled. The best chance of sufficient trainees is when the school population is in decline, the job market is challenging for graduates – especially new graduates – and existing teachers are not exiting the profession at the same rate as previously.

The current ITT position is governed by the fact that school rolls are falling, so fewer new teachers are needed; the graduate job market is beginning to feel the consequences of AI, or it may be for graduates in some subjects, such as computing. Although teachers leaving the profession, net of returners, has not changed much, the opportunities for teachers to work outside of England and not pay back their student loans is probably still increasing.

The 2026 targets for trainee numbers were cut by the DfE. We won’t know until the ITT census in December what the overall picture looks like, but the table below shows the position if all ‘accepted’ for courses covered by the DfE’s monthly statistics of numbers accepted were to turn up and be recorded in the 2026 ITT census.

Subject Target 2026/27 August offers Fill: August view August Accepted Fill on Accepted August
Chemistry 690 1530 YES 1362 YES
Biology 675 679 PROBABLY 492 NO
Mathematics 2000 3141 YES 2720 YES
Design & Technology 620 741 YES 659 YES
Art & Design 605 756 YES 624 YES
Geography 685 589 NO 496 NO
Classics 75 47 NO 39 NO
English 1980 1900 POSSIBLY 1587 NO
Drama 370 338 POSSIBLY 279 NO
Business Studies 1200 379 NO 283 NO
Music 260 283 YES 238 NO
Religious Education 450 367 NO 308 NO
Others 2035 527 NO 424 NO
History 520 1166 YES 995 YES
Modern Languages 1085 1409 YES 1201 YES
Physics 810 1649 YES 1434 YES
Physical Education 655 1608 YES 1359 YES
Computing 565 1041 YES 876 YES

The column to consider is the final one for the number accepted by August 17th 2026 in the DfE monthly published statistics. Initial teacher training application statistics for courses starting in the 2025 to 2026 academic year – Apply for teacher training – GOV.UK

Despite the cuts to training places, some subjects are still unlikely to meet their reduced target, even though they have more trainees accepted than last year. However, the effect of AI may be seen in the increase in numbers accepted in computing.

The focus now should be on recruitment into the arts and social sciences, where some subjects only beat the target number by a very small margin, and others missed even the reduced requirement. Can the DfE afford to offer bursaries in these subjects without cutting the bursary elsewhere and risking a yo-yo effect of no bursary, a slump in applications.

Personally, I think al trainees should be treated equally, and that the DfE should not try to pick winners and losers. However, with funding tight, I cannot see that happening, even with a Secretary of State more likely to be sympathetic to teachers than some of her predecessors.

In passing, it is worth noting that applications from those in their 50s are below the numbers in the last cycle. All other groups have recorded increases, but for the ‘21 and under’ new graduates grouping, this is just 106 more applicants. For the 22-25 age groups it is just over 600 more application out a total of over 15,000.

The large increase in applications is for secondary courses, up from 38,169 in the last cycle to 43,365 this year. However, much of that increase has been fuelled by an increase in applicants from the ‘Rest of the world’ – up from 8,777 in the last cycle to 14,049 in this cycle, now accounting for more than 25% of applicants once those from the EEA are included in the total.

The September DfE data will be confirmatory, and few changes are expected that is unless those from overseas that have been ‘accepted’ fall foul of the government’s visa rules.

What of the class of 2027/28? With falling rolls, and the increasing effect of AI on jobs for new graduates, it seems likely a new golden age for teacher training may be dawning. However, this will result in casualties among providers: not all will survive.

This blog called the start of the supply crisis in 2013, and was condemned by the DfE for doing so. Perhaps it might be rewarded for charting what has happened over the next 13 years, and its predication for the future? But somehow I doubt it.