The DfE has today published its comprehensive analysis of the school workforce, including the trainee need for 2026/27 courses. As we know, pupil numbers are falling in the primary sector, and don’t have much further to rise in the secondary sector. As a result of this fact, added to improved take up of teaching as a career, and improved retention, the DfE has significantly adjusted its trainee targets. Teacher demand and postgraduate trainee need: 2026 to 2027 – GOV.UK
I will look at some of the data in more detail in future posts on this blog, but for this post it is just the changes in trainee needs.
| Subject/phase | TRAINEE NEED 2021/22 | TRAINEE NEED 2025/26 | TRAINEE NEED 2026/27 | DIFF 26/27 ON 21/22 | 26/27 0N 25/26 | 2025 ITT CENSUS | NEW TARGET MET? |
| Art and Design | 580 | 680 | 605 | 25 | 75 | 872 | YES |
| Biology | 820 | 985 | 675 | 145 | 310 | 1489 | YES |
| Business Studies | 725 | 900 | 1200 | 475 | 300 | 271 | NO |
| Chemistry | 1080 | 730 | 690 | 390 | 40 | 864 | YES |
| Classics | 40 | 60 | 75 | 35 | 15 | 44 | NO |
| Computing | 840 | 895 | 565 | 275 | 330 | 715 | YES |
| Design and Technology | 1475 | 965 | 620 | 855 | 345 | 580 | POSSIBLY |
| Drama | 330 | 620 | 370 | 40 | 250 | 255 | POSSIBLY |
| English | 1980 | 1,950 | 1980 | 0 | 30 | 2069 | YES |
| Geography | 745 | 935 | 685 | 60 | 250 | 1035 | YES |
| History | 780 | 790 | 520 | 260 | 270 | 969 | YES |
| Mathematics | 2800 | 2,300 | 2000 | 800 | 300 | 2588 | YES |
| Modern Foreign Languages | 1505 | 1,460 | 1085 | 420 | 375 | 1364 | YES |
| Music | 540 | 565 | 260 | 280 | 305 | 367 | YES |
| Others | 1980 | 2,520 | 2035 | 55 | 485 | 348 | NO WAY |
| Physical Education | 1010 | 725 | 655 | 355 | 70 | 1466 | YES |
| Physics | 2530 | 1,410 | 810 | 1720 | 600 | 1086 | YES |
| Religious Education | 470 | 780 | 450 | 20 | 330 | 483 | YES |
| overall TOTAL | 31030 | 26,920 | 20800 | 10230 | 6120 | ||
| Secondary Total | 20230 | 19,270 | 15280 | 4950 | 3990 | 16975 | |
| Primary Total | 10800 | 7,650 | 5520 | 5280 | 2130 |
In the table I have ignored the primary phase. The total suggested of 5,520 for the postgraduate primary sector will no doubt cause real concern. However, as the DfE helpfully point out, these are not subject to recruitment controls.
In terms of the secondary sector subjects, it is worth pointing out that the DfE has seemingly abandoned the dubious practice of adding unfilled places from the previous year into the new need total. In its place, it has opted for a more nuanced approach. As I have pointed out before, schools start the term in September fully staff, so there are no vacancies, just teachers with sub-optimal qualification teaching pupils. Unless these teachers are sacked, there are no vacancies if too many teachers are trained.
In the final column, using the data from the 2025 ITT census, I have suggested my thoughts about the possible outcome of the current round based on these need numbers. More later
John Howson 