ITT – more applicants doesn’t always mean more offers

Posted on March 24, 2026 by John Howson

In my previous post, I noted the increase of nearly 6,000 I the number of candidates applying for a place on a graduate teacher preparation course. Up from 21,436 in March 2025 to 27,352 in March 2026. This post explores the relationship, both this March and last march, between candidates and places offered to those candidates.

Firstly, the number of candidates and the number of ‘offers’ to candidates in each secondary subject.

	candidates		offers
	2025	2026	2025	2026
BIOLOGY	2161	2044	713	332
ART&DESIGN	960	1026	451	366
MFL	1876	2246	821	733
PE	1988	2219	1149	1043
PHYSICS	3329	6522	825	918
COMPUTING	1270	2394	341	420
GEOGRAPHY	1089	843	476	292
OTHERS	926	1342	281	310
CLASSICS	67	62	34	27
D&T	661	861	273	295
RE	699	693	255	208
MUSIC	311	275	173	136
MATHEMATICS	4006	5346	1277	1398
ENGLISH	2561	2830	1032	990
HISTORY	1142	1281	592	624
BUS STUDIES	607	923	132	173
DRAMA	336	384	162	176
CHEMISTRY	1662	2207	441	675

Note, not all subjects have seen increased candidate numbers within the overall increase.

Secondly, the next table shows the percentage of candidates so far ‘offered’ a place for 2026.

	2025	2026	Change
BIOLOGY	33%	16%	-17%
ART&DESIGN	47%	36%	-11%
MFL	44%	33%	-11%
PE	58%	47%	-11%
PHYSICS	25%	14%	-11%
COMPUTING	27%	18%	-9%
GEOGRAPHY	44%	35%	-9%
OTHERS	30%	23%	-7%
CLASSICS	51%	44%	-7%
D&T	41%	34%	-7%
RE	36%	30%	-6%
MUSIC	56%	49%	-6%
MATHEMATICS	32%	26%	-6%
ENGLISH	40%	35%	-5%
HISTORY	52%	49%	-3%
BUS STUDIES	22%	19%	-3%
DRAMA	48%	46%	-2%
CHEMISTRY	27%	31%	4%

Only in Chemistry, where because of the reduction in the size of the bursary to those applying for biology courses it seems likely that those with a choice between the two subjects have opted to apply for chemistry with its higher bursary for 2026. As a result, biology, with a 17% fall in offers this March when compared with March 2025, is the big loser.

Despite the change in candidate numbers, the percentages offered places in March 2026 follows a similar ranking to March 2025.

% offered
	2025	2026
MUSIC	56%	49%
HISTORY	52%	49%
PE	58%	47%
DRAMA	48%	46%
CLASSICS	51%	44%
ART&DESIGN	47%	36%
ENGLISH	40%	35%
GEOGRAPHY	44%	35%
D&T	41%	34%
MFL	44%	33%
CHEMISTRY	27%	31%
RE	36%	30%
MATHEMATICS	32%	26%
OTHERS	30%	23%
BUS STUDIES	22%	19%
COMPUTING	27%	18%
BIOLOGY	33%	16%
PHYSICS	25%	14%

Music is such a specialist subject that it generally only attracts candidates likely to be accepted. However, current ‘offer’ levels are still well below those recorded in the first four years of the century when the number accepted ranged between 68% (2001) and 78% (2003). (Source: John Howson’s collection of GTTR Annual Reports). 2003 was after graduates training to be teachers received a training grant and were also exempt from tuition fees.

Of course, the most interesting percentage of ‘offers’ is that for physics, where only 14% of candidates have so far been made an offer. It looks as if the better candidates for biology are those that have opted to apply for chemistry in 2026, resulting in a significant fall in ‘offers’ in biology.

For subjects such as history and physical education, it is wise for candidates to apply early in the recruitment round since places fill quickly.

Finally, is the present system fit for purpose? Should there be a closing date by which all applicants will be considered, rather than the drip feed approach as a present?

ITT – 9 subjects with fewer offers than March last year

Posted on March 23, 2026 by John Howson

Despite the increase in applicants for secondary ITT courses, from 21,436 in March 2025, to 27,352 this March, ‘offers’ from course providers are down in nine different subjects this March when compared with March 2025. The subjects with fewer offer so far this year are:

Subject	Offer March 2026	Offer March 2025	% change
Art & Design	366	451	19%
Biology	332	713	53%
Classics	27	34	21%
English	990	1032	4%
Geography	292	476	39%
Modern Foreign Languages	733	821	11%
Music	136	173	21%
Physical Education	1043	1149	9%
Religious Education	208	255	18%

I think one can discount both Physical Education and English from subjects where the declines are of concern. Elsewhere, the changes in bursary support are obviously having an effect. Those biologists that can do so are now applying for Chemistry – where there is still a bursary, and offers are up from 441 last march to 675 this March – but the overall offer across the two subjects are still below last March at 997, compared with 1,154 last March.

It is the arts subjects that seem to have been most badly hit. This is not surprising given the changes to the bursary scheme that saw the bursary axed completely for music and religious education, and reduced for biology from £26,000 to just £5,000, while it increased to £29,000 for chemistry. French and Spanish also lost their £26,000 bursaries. The reduction in ’offers’ in geography, down by 39% may also be due to the cut in the bursary from £26,000 to just £5,000.

Given the need for fewer teachers in the future, as secondary school rolls start to fall, these changes to bursaries do look like a gamble. How much of a gamble will be clear when the DfE finally announces the ITT training targets. But my hunch is that music and religious education along with geography will join the list of subjects not hitting their targets unless the current global war affects graduate recruitment in the summer. Will there be a late surge of new graduates looking to teaching, similar to that during the early months of the pandemic in 2020? The jury is out for the moment, but such a surge would not surprise me. However, as a precaution, reinstating a scholarship in the arts subjects might be a wise precaution. This might make it look less like a -U- turn than a reinstatement of the bursary.

Elsewhere in the data, candidates form the ‘Rest of the World’ accounted for 30% of all candidates this March, compared with 21% last March. The DfE really does need to show how this increase affects different subjects and how many of these candidates will be likely to receive a visa to both learn and then teach in England? Can we afford to waste funds on those with no prospect of teaching in England, while depriving potential home candidates of bursaries.

As expected at this time of year, there has been more interest from career changers than university students, with those under 24 showing an increase over last year of just 1,000 compared with an increase of more than 4,900 from those in the 25-39 age groupings.

ITT: What the poster doesn’t say

Posted on March 16, 2026 by John Howson

I saw several of these posters on York railway station this weekend.

The station seems like a good place to advertise, as York has a large number of university students passing through the station, but I hope the course organisers managed to negotiate a good deal, given the number of posters I saw in and around the station.

I thought the poster lacked a ‘call to action’. Just adding a QR code isn’t enough for me. Why not an arrow to the QR code with ‘click here for more details?’ As it is, the QR code is just sitting there, not doing much.

If I saw the poster, as a possible teacher, two things I might want to know, but are not told, are ‘how much does the training cost’ and ‘will I be guaranteed a job if I am successful?’

I guess the answers to both questions might be so off-putting as to be sensible to leave off the poster. However, as this was York, the starting salary and some idea of what top salaries in teaching are these days might have been a pull factor.

The DfE is currently spending money – not sure how much – promoting their vacancy website as the place to go to for teaching jobs. Might they also want to create a generic poster for railways stations in other university towns to encourage graduates to think about teaching as a career, rather that leaving it ITT providers to do so?

Finally, I am now sure about the strap line of ‘inspiring tomorrow’s teachers today’. It is certainly a catchy phrase, but it doesn’t do much for me.

While in York, this past weekend, I summated one of the amendments to the Lib Dem conference motion on tuition fees. The amendment called for student debt forgiveness for those that work in the public sector for ten years. In my speech, I also suggested the idea of Tuition Fee credits for student on Free School Meals for the whole of their secondary school career.

Sadly, I didn’t have time to remind conference that between 1997 and 2010, graduates training to be a teacher on programmes such as those run by Exchange Teacher Training had their tuition paid by the government. Personally, I believe that both trainee teachers and medics should have their fees for post first degree study paid by the government or at least repaid as soon as they start work in state-funded locations. After all, we pay army offices during their training, why not teachers and medics?

Time to review funding for trainee teachers

Posted on March 2, 2026 by John Howson

It has been interesting to watch the current debate about higher education, and the level of debt incurred by students studying for a degree. Throughout the recent debate, I don’t think I have seen any reference to the 2019 Auger Committee report Independent panel report to the Review of Post-18 Education and Funding set up by Theresa May when she was Prime Minster. Interestingly, I wrote a blog about the report after it was published, and you can read it here. Lower Fees: a threat to teacher education? | John Howson

My major concern at the time, back in 2019, was the Committee’s recommendation to reduce tuition fees to a maximum of £7,500 per year, and what that reduction might do to the funding of teacher preparation courses.

The recent debate about higher education funding has been around repayment levels and student debt, and Auger had a great deal to say about both that issue and the balance between the needs of the individual and the funding of higher education by the State. Suffice to say, the Committee ducked the issue of RPI versus CPI – leaving the decision to the Treasury. Had they had a crystal ball about the future direction of inflation, one wonders whether they might have been more assertive for a change?

However, their recommendation that interest not be calculated during a period of study, although the principal amount of the loan should still be increased in real terms, in order to reflect inflation, would have helped reduce repayments.

The recommendation of a cap on repayments would also have been useful in making clear how much the State would recover. However, the Committee did recognise that the system favoured well-paid graduates, as the sooner the loan was paid off, the lower the interest charges incurred.

As the Committee noted on page 174 of their Report.

“In the words of the Treasury Select Committee Report into student loans: “…the civil servant, the teacher and the accountant pay broadly similar amounts for their loan, but a graduate joining a “magic circle” law firm pays less, owing to rapid pay growth in the early stages of their career.” House of Commons Treasury Committee (2018) Student Loans: Seventh Report of Session 2017-19, p15.

Regular readers will know that I have always maintained that making many, but not all, trainee teachers incur a fourth year of student debt, not required of other public servants has been a mistake, and a drag on recruitment into teaching and thus a damper on the economy of the country, as too many pupils fail to fulfil their full potential when taught by less than fully qualified teachers in certain subjects.

For several months now, I have been advocating the return of a bursary for trainee music teachers, to help stem the falling recruitment in that subject.

Realistically, I believe all teacher preparation courses should be debt-free. I also endorse Auguer’s recommendation that student debt should not carry interest payments while a person is studying an approved course.

The present debate about student funding will have alerted many would-be teachers to the fact that they will be paying interest on their loans while training to be a teacher, and also paying interest on the student loans for their teacher preparation courses. With starting salaries for teachers above the threshold for repayments, teaching doesn’t look like a worthwhile investment, and many are still not signing up to become teachers.

I would urge the government to look into the current funding model for trainee teachers, and to make it a level playing field for all, with no new debt, and no additional interest on undergraduate loans while studying to be a teacher.

Overseas applicants boost teacher training numbers

Posted on February 23, 2026 by John Howson

As well as the White Paper, today also saw the publication of the February data on applications to postgraduate teacher preparation courses. Initial teacher training application statistics for courses starting in the 2026 to 2027 academic year – Apply for teacher training – GOV.UK

The headline number of note is the percentage of applications from outside of the United Kingdom. Last February these applicants totalled just over 6,000, accounting for 24% of all applications. This February, the applicants from outside the United Kingdon now total almost 10,500, and account for 33% of all applications.

The key question that the published data does not reveal, but is of great consequence, is whether these extra 4,000 candidates are applying across the board for all subjects, or are concentrated in just a few subjects?

This question is of real importance, as there is now a split between subjects where ‘offers’ are above last year, and those other subjects where, despite rising unemployment in the wider economy, ‘offers’ in February 2026 are below those from February 2025. Many of these latter subjects will likely miss their target once again this year unless there is a dramatic shift in applications during the second half of the recruitment round, such as last seen in 2020, as a result of the covid pandemic.

Doing better than last year with regard to ‘offers’ are: physics; mathematics; history; design & technology; computing; chemistry, drama, and primary sector courses. English is just about holding its own when compared with February 2025.

Doing less well than in February 2025 are: modern languages; art & design; religious education; physical education; music; geography; classics and biology. Of these subjects, the decline in offers for physical education should be of no concern as the number of ‘offers’ is already more than 900 or more than the combined total of ‘offers’ for art & design; drama; music; religious education and ‘other subjects.

Does this government not care about the arts? I have long campaigned for the return of the music bursary. With music ‘offers’ down at just 110 this February, compared with 139 last February, that is a loss of 29 potential teachers of music, and the gap with last year has widened since the January data were published.

So, are there any other worries? Applications from candidates over the age of 25 appear to be rising faster than from newly graduating students. There are only 128 more applications from the youngest age grouping, compared with 208 from the 45 to 49 age group, and more than 2,000 additional applicants this year from the 25 to 29 age group. It would be helpful to know in which age grouping the additional 4,500 applicants from outside the United Kingdom fall, and which subjects they have applied for this year?

With the increase in applications from men, up from 9,561 to 13,654 being proportionally more than the increase in applications from women, up from 15,735 to 18,224, it would also be informative to know which subjects these additional 4,000 male applicants have applied for, and how many fall into applicants from the ‘rest of the world’ group?

While apprenticeships have shown good growth in applications, higher education courses have had to deal with the bulk of the additional applicants, with more than 5,000 additional applicants. My guess would be that the bulk of the new overseas applicants are targeting higher education courses.

We now enter that period of the recruitment round where fewer undergraduates will be applying until after the examination season, so further growth between now and the July data are most likely from career changers rather than undergraduates. This fact might push the proportion of ’rest of the world’ applicants to an even higher percentage than the 33% recorded this month. Perhaps it is now time for the DfE to review how the data are published in order to make it more useful to those interested in the labour market for teachers?

Music teacher shortage: the situation worsens

Posted on February 17, 2026 by John Howson

Regular readers will know that I have been pursuing a return of the ITT bursary for postgraduates enrolling to train as a music teacher on courses starting in the autumn of 2026. This is a very small -U- turn for the government, but a necessary one for the subject, and its future in our schools and universities.

Previous posts on this blog have demonstrated that the removal of the bursary has already affected ‘offers’ to music courses, with a reduction of around 20 ‘offers’ in January 2026 compared with January 2025. Traditionally, any reduction in early-bird offers is not recovered later in the annual application cycle. Music ITT will miss its target: my reasoning | John Howson

This post looks at competition for teachers of music. There are three main areas for teachers to seek work as a teacher of music in a school: the state sector- including sixth form colleges; independent schools in England; private schools across the globe that seek to employ teachers trained in England.

Our starting point this year is the 367 trainees in music identified by the DfE’s annual census taken in December 2025. Add in Teach First and any late arrivals, and the overall total might be 380 – being generous.

Take of 10% for non-completes and those not choosing teaching as a career, and the labour market might have a supply of 342 trainees seeking work.

By mid-February, there had been 100 advertised vacancies by state schools for teachers of music without a TLR – i.e. classroom teacher posts. A well-used job board recorded 15 classroom teacher vacancies from independent schools in England on a single day in mid-February.

On the same date, the same job board, recorded 99 vacancies for teachers of music from schools across the world. This was made up of 40 vacancies in The Gulf, primarily in Dubai and the other Emirates, but there were 13 vacancies from schools in China, and 46 from schools elsewhere in the world.

Now I don’t expect nearly qualified teachers to apply for these vacancies, but to the extent that these posts are not filled by teachers already working overseas, then these vacancies will take teachers away from schools in England, and create new vacancies.

Assuming only a third of these vacancies are filled by teachers leaving schools in England, and the rest filled in other ways that would be an extra 33 vacancies at present.

Adding together the 100 state school vacancies so far in 2026 to the 15 already recorded private schools in England plus the 33 overseas schools currently seeking a new teacher that might recruit from schools in England that produces a total of 148 vacancies by mid-February, or 43% of the available total of trainees. Increase the take by overseas schools to half of their current vacancies, and not far off half the available pool for September and January could have been offered a job.

Now, some of the vacancies in Egland will be filled by existing teachers changing jobs or returners to the profession, but most experienced teachers will probably be looking for a post with a TLR if seeking a move to another school.

With three months to go to the summer resignation date, and six months until terms start, the pool of available teachers already looks stretched, and this is with trainees that have enjoyed the bursary.

If the lack of a bursary shrinks the 2027 pool, because there are fewer trainees, is removing the bursary a sensible move? In my opinion, it is not, and the government should reintroduce the bursary for trainees starting preparation courses in autumn 2026 to be a teacher of music.

We will continue to monitor the situation and report back through future blogs as the recruitment round unfolds.

Music bursary: a recurring theme

Posted on February 1, 2026 by John Howson

Earlier today, when I was turning out some old papers about teacher supply issues, I came across a draft for a paper I wrote more than 30 years ago on the subject of failing to meet the demand for music teachers.

Interestingly, in the notes, I compared the data for the shortage subject receiving a bursary in 1990 and 1991, with music that wasn’t a bursary subject.

As you might expect, music stood out, even in the early 1990s as an anomaly.

Take Table 31 from the Interim Advisory Committee report of January 1991. This table lists the percentage of unfilled teacher vacancies recorded in a joint union survey. Music ranked 6^th worst in the list. In the DES Press notice on vacancies, issued on 25^th August 1991, music was third worst as a percentage of teachers in post, with a vacancy rate of 2.4%. This placed music behind only, ‘other languages’ at 7.2% and German, at 2.5%.

In a DFES document ‘Projecting the Supply and Demand of Techers’, published in December 1990, the Department accepted that projections suggested a shortfall of teachers of music. Interestingly, music was the only subject with a shortfall across all four scenarios modelled in the document. Even so, music did not at that time join the list of subjects entitled to a bursary.

Another DES press notice, of 27^th November 1990 (382/90), probably associated with the census of ITT trainees, normally published about that time of year, also showed a deterioration in ITT places filled from 88.9% in 1889, to 71.0% in 1990, although the actual number of trainees had increased from 282 to 340. In 1990, only mathematics, at 63.3% of places filled had a lower percentage of filled places than music.

So, what do I deduce from the data about both recruitment into ITT, and teacher vacancies, from nearly 40 years ago? Perhaps that attitudes in the civil service towards certain subjects in the curriculum don’t change very much.

Maybe the turnover of civil servants with responsibility for ITT bursaries is so frequent that it doesn’t allow for them to start afresh each year in considering the data and trends in each subject.

However, even that approach doesn’t really explain the dropping of the bursary from music for 2026 entry. I think the profession needs an explanation. Otherwise, the axing of the bursary for music can be seen as a cynical ploy to say money in a subject Ministers don’t fully appreciate in terms of its contribution to both society and the growth agenda.

I think that the Arts Council, DCMS, and the music lobby have a right to know why music lost its bursary, and to ask that it be replaced.

However, having seen how both the DfE and DCMS have recently handled the physical education grants, I am not holing out much hope unless there is a real campaign to reinstate the bursary for music, perhaps with some scholarships provided by private funders. Don’t let us lose music from our state secondary schools.

Music: the podcast on the case for a bursary

Posted on January 31, 2026 by John Howson

I have asked notebookLM to create a podcast of the previous post about advocating for the return of the bursary for ITT music courses in England. Save for a slight misunderstanding about ‘returners’, I think it is an interesting podcast. The docx mentioned isn’t where the absence of the music bursary is shown. The announcement is at https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/funding-initial-teacher-training-itt/funding-initial-teacher-training-itt-academic-year-2026-to-2027

As this is a new use of AI to amplify my text in the blog, feedback is welcome through the comments.

The podcast is at https://drive.google.com/file/d/1WlmxPOKsyNcG1rkUVARwx6kqLW_rtAj_/view?usp=drive_web

Why Music Teacher Bursaries Matter for Education

Posted on January 31, 2026 by John Howson

What is the point of bursaries for trainee teachers not on routes into teaching that pay a salary? The assumption must be that an inducement, such as a bursary would help recruit more trainees, or at least keep those that want to be a teacher on their teacher preparation programme.

Each year, the Department for Education decides which subjects will be allocated bursaries. In some subjects, the DfE also works with other bodies, such as subject associations, to offer alternative higher amounts of funding through scholarships. Both bursaries and scholarships have the advantage of being tax free to the recipients.

In the days when the Conservative government championed the Baccalaureate subjects above all others, it was understandable that subjects not included in the Baccalaureate might be regarded of less concern than those that made up the Baccalaureate, and thus that these subjects did not need bursaries, even if an insufficient number of trainees were recruited.

However, for courses operating in 2024/25 and 2025/26, the DfE did pay a bursary of £10,000 to those training to become teachers of music.

The bursary for music was not included within the list of eligible subjects for the courses operating in 2026/27. No reason was provided by the DfE for the removal of the bursary.

However, recruitment targets for music have been missed in six of the last seven years including for the current trainee group (2019/20–2025/26).

The failure to recruit to target has meant fewer music teachers in schools, and a drop in entries to public examinations. Between 2010/11, and the start of the coalition government, and 2022/23, entries for A Level music declined from 8,709 to 4,910. Interestingly, the percentage of A* and A grades increased from 24.3% to 41.6%. This might suggest that it was State schools, with their wider range of pupil abilities that saw the biggest fall in entries, as schools struggling to recruit music teachers axed examination courses that they could no longer staff.

Interestingly, a by-produce of the break-up of schools into many academy trusts might have meant that opportunities for collaboration between schools also declined after 2010, and the Academies Act.

How bad has the challenge of recruiting teachers of music been over the past few years? Were the ITT targets set by the DfE, and based upon the DfE’s own Teacher Supply Model accurate or over-optimistic in the need for teachers of music in state schools?

Pool
	Music	Jan	Feb	March	April	May	June	Sept	Oct	Nov	Dec
251	2019	227	185	116	55	-57	-104	-253	-172	-196	-215
256	2020	205	146	77	24	-59	-86	-117	-144	-162	-171
416	2021	390	358	303	243	161	117	78	45	14	-9
315	2022	256	208	119	12	-128	-214	-305	-352	-395	-422
228	2023	156	81	-3	-126	-278	-356
	2024
	2025
330	2026	265

Data from TeachVac and dataforeducation

The table starts with the ‘pool’ of music trainees likely to be available to state schools that year and reduces it by one for every vacancy recorded during the year. The minus number is the excess of vacancies over the ‘pool ‘number

Between 2018 and 2023, only the cohort of trainees recruited during Covid, and entering the labour market in 2021, provided sufficient trainee numbers to have allowed schools to be secure in filling vacancies for September.

Of course, in addition to new entrants to teaching there are those returning to teaching or entering from other sectors, such as further education or independent schools.

As a rule of thumb, perhaps half of vacancies might be filled by new entrants, and the other half from other sources. The data in the table would suggest that in most years, if demand from private schools was also taken into account, the labour market would need to have ensured a steady supply of ‘returners’ to fill all the advertised vacancies for music teacher posts.

Each year, for January appointments, returners would have been critical for schools seeking to make an appointment, including those teachers returning to England from teaching in schools in the southern hemisphere, with a December year-end. Normally, somewhere around 100 vacancies for a January start were advertised each year between 2019 and 2022.

So, why, if there is a shortage of teachers, and the Teacher Supply Model did not seem to have been overestimated demand, was the bursary axed? Could it have been the age-old HM Treasury view that if there is a base number that would enter teacher training under any circumstances, then why pay them a bursary?

In the absence of any other explanation, it is difficult to think of any other reason than this cynical approach for the axing of the bursary for music. Put another way, Ministers just didn’t care enough about music, and weren’t aware of the contribution of all forms of music to the national wealth and our export drive to keep the bursary when it was suggested it be axed.

Sadly, the music lobby hasn’t yet changed the government’s mind. However, there is still time to do so for this recruitment round. The data showing the difference in ‘offers’ for ITT courses, between the January 2025 and January 2026 data points should, by itself, be enough to force a rethink, or a -U- turn, if you prefer it.

	2026 ENTRY TO PG ITT
	MUSIC
2025 TARGET	565
OFFERS JANUARY 2026	70
OFFERS JANUARY 2025	91
TOTAL OFFERS 2025	416
DIFFERENCE 2025 TOTAL AND 2025 January OFFERS	325
PROJECTION for 2026	395
ESTIMATED SHORTFALL	170

A decline in ‘offers’ from 91 to 70 is of serious concern, as these are the group most likely to be prepared to become a music teacher at whatever cost. My advice to Ministers: announce the bursary for music has been added to the list for entry in 2026 or watch the subject decline even further.

ITT January 2026: lots to ponder

Posted on January 26, 2026 by John Howson

On the face of it, the January 2026 data around postgraduate ITT applications and offers looks good news for the DfE, and for schools Initial teacher training application statistics for courses starting in the 2026 to 2027 academic year – Apply for teacher training – GOV.UK

By the 19^th January 2026, there had been applications from 26,217 candidates. This compared with 20,771 at the January data point in 2025. Candidates applying for primary courses were up from 7,283 to 8,676: a modest increase.

For secondary courses candidate numbers this year were, 19,232 compared with 14,862 at last January’s datapoint. That looks like very good news, perhaps worthy of a Statement in Parliament.

However, it is worth delving a bit deeper into the data before putting out too much bunting. Applications from the ‘Rest of the world’ account for 8,353 of this January’s total, compared with 5,088 last January. That means that this group now account for a whopping 30% of candidates. This compares with 23% of candidates from this grouping in last January’s data.

Of even more concern, is that the numbers of candidates from the United Kingdom haven’t kept pace with the growth in overseas applicants. The growth in applicant numbers from the North of England has been especially weak; only 90 more compared with last year from the Yorkshire and The Humber region, and only 71 more from the North East.

Admittedly, the North West has seen an increase of over 400 applicants, and London, over 500 more. However, the South East only has around 140 more applicants than last year. This is around 7% more, but this percentage pales into insignificance compared to the more than two thirds increase in applicants for ‘the Rest of the World’.

The dominance of the ‘Rest of the World’ applicants as a share of the total makes commenting upon the data challenging. Normally at this time of year, I might be happy to predict those subjects likely to miss their ITT targets, based upon more than 30 years of data collection. Not knowing how the ‘Rest of the world’ applicants are spread both between primary and secondary phase, and within secondary phase by subjects adds a unique challenge to any predictions this year.

However, based upon ‘offers’, and the outcome of the 2025 ITT census, and assuming no significant change in the pattern of applications over the rest of the cycle – such as a significant weakening of the demand for new graduates or another pandemic – I am happy to make some suggestions for the outcomes based upon current trends.

I expect that Religious Education, Modern Foreign Languages, Music, Classics and the ‘other’ group will all miss their target this year.

I am not sure about biology, where offers are down by 194, but the subject reached 151% of target last year. I am also, as yet, uncertain about Geography, where offers are down, but the subject surpassed its target last year.

Despite the increase in offers, I still don’t expect Physics, Design & Technology, Business Studies and Drama to meet their targets, although on this showing they might do better than last year, assuming those with offers actually turn up when courses start: always a worry this early in the recruitment round.

On the current data, Physical Education and History, as ever, will surpass their targets. Mathematics, computing and Chemistry, should also meet their targets. I am unsure about English, where offers are down, and the subject only just beat its target in 2025.

Overall, I think that the DfE needs to consider how the statistics are presented, if a nearly a third of applicants might need a visa to train. How does this fit in with other government policies? Perhaps we can set up training courses overseas, so that these new would-be teachers from the ‘Rest of the world’ can work in the new State Schools to be established as a part of the DfE’s export drive, announced last week.

John Howson

Education and the numbers that affect what happens

Tag Archives: teacher training