Can we make savings in our school system?

Posted on June 19, 2026 by John Howson

We all know that government finances are tight, and with both defence and the NHS on the lookout for more cash to spend, the Labour government has a challenging time ahead if it doesn’t want to raise taxes. Welfare reform is a big issue, but the increase in the number of pensioners, and especially older pensioners, together with an increasing number of young NEETs provides a real challenge for any government when allocating priorities for the taxes it can raise.

Before looking at three possible areas for savings in the school system, here is a suggestion for attacking the NEET problem. Every school should offer one apprenticeship for every 25 pupils. Smaller schools should be encouraged, but not required to take on at last one apprentice.

This scheme might create perhaps 20,000 new jobs that offered real work to those currently unemployed. I would have paid for the scheme both by unused Apprenticeship Ley cash returned to the Treasury, and by using the dormant assets funds for this much more defined scheme than for the recently announced ‘Every Child Can’ programme that seems a good intention but won’t necessarily reduce the number of NEETs.

Now for my ideas about efficiency savings. There are three areas where I think a national strategy could reap dividends:

Small Sixth Forms

Small Schools

MATs numbers and costs

Earlier this year, I wrote a post on this blog about small sixth forms, and their results. This was based upon an analysis of ‘A’ Level results for one year in one local authority area, where all secondary schools are academies. Are small sixth forms a good idea? | John Howson

Wit the prospect of a period of falling rolls, a national strategy for post-16 education might be unpopular with schools and teachers, but might pay dividends in reducing expenditure in this sector.

Falling school rolls also offers the opportunity to take another look at small schools. I know that overheads have been brought down by creating executive heads for several schools, and allowing primary schools to open nursery classes, but could a strategic look at the school estate provide significant savings? Of course, such an approach would bring the government into direct conflict with both the Church of England and the Roman Catholic Church.

The third saving would be achieved by doing away with the dual system of local authority and academy schools, and returning to a single system of governance for schooling. I would prefer a school system with local democracy at its heart, but even an NHS style MAT managed system ought to capable of saving lots of cash compared with the present shambles.

I looked up a series of MAT accounts for 2024-25 in one authority area and estimated spending of nearly £28 million on a range of services.

000s of £s	Spend
2158	LEGAL
446	ACCOUNTANCY
64	PROF FEES
1569	INSURANCE
1021	GOVERNANCE
2211	RAISING FUNDS
5196	OTHER SUPPORT COSTS
14241	OTHER COSTS
932	EDUCATION CONSULTANCY

As the DfE already has the data, they will know how much could be saved just on governance if there were no more than five MATs in each local authority, and legal and accountancy services were purchased from the public sector. Completely rationalising the governance of the school sector should save a nit insignificant amount of cash.

Sadly, I think there is little chance of any significant savings under the present government.

No, No, No, please do not impose a GCSE test on university applicants

Posted on June 18, 2026 by John Howson

There was a discussion this morning on the BBC radio Today programme about a suggestion from Whitehall that everyone claiming a student loan should have a pass in English at GCSE. By English, I assume they mean English Language. I am vehemently opposed to such an idea. Let me explain why.

In the 1960s, when I was in the third year of my sixth form career, with ‘A’ Level grades of BBC in History, Geography and Economics, and a merit in what was then the special Paper, I still didn’t have a pass in English. (After six attempts, I finally succeeded in the following January examination).

Looking to universities where I could apply to study, some of whom had only recently dropped Latin as a compulsory requirement for many subjects, I struggled to find six courses that I could apply for without a pass in English Language.

In the end, LSE, a university with large number of mature students with non-standard entry requirements, Leicester, and a couple of then new universities were my only options. Eventually, I joined my twin brother to study at LSE, following in our father’s footstep, although he studied as a part-time mature student, and I was a full-time day student with both a grant and a scholarship.

So, I oppose any move to ration university places by such an arbitrary measure as a pass in GCSE English, just as I oppose the idea of a sudden death all or nothing Baccalaureate – even the IB, with its many good points.

However, I don’t just rest my opposition on the basis of my personal testimony. As previous posts on this blog have demonstrated, the education offered to pupils that put their trust in the State to educate them varies significantly from place to place, and over time.

After a period of teacher shortages, lasting more than a decade, the nation may now be moving towards a period when becoming a teacher becomes more difficult and everyone can be taught by teachers qualified in their subject.

But, should those teaching music, art, parts of design, and other subjects be restricted by a requirement to be proficient in English before taking a degree course?

Well, of course, they already are if they want to be a teacher, as ITT has minimum standards. When undergraduate teaching degrees were still commonplace, universities used to set approved tests for those without the paper qualifications in English. I guess such local tests would be a way around any new requirement. However, if the government mandated that access to student loans required either a pass in English or any other such approach, individual institutions might find circumventing the new rule more of a challenge.

The figure of 33,000 students without a pass in English was mentioned in the radio piece. However, we weren’t told what subjects they were studying. There may well be a debate about the numbers going to university, but as a society I would hope that we had moved beyond such an arbitrary rule: then I look at requirements for entry into school sixth forms, and know that today, I would not even have made it to ‘A’ Level, and those grades I acquired, in far too many schools.

We may need more cash for defence, but not at the expense of the education of late developers, those brought up in the wrong geographical area, and those facing the many other barriers already in place for our young people considering higher education and a degree.

Is Labour wrecking London’s Schools?

Posted on June 17, 2026 by John Howson

This blog has revealed in a previous post how in many London borough the fall in pupil numbers in the primary sector has resulted in a worsening of the pupil teacher ratios (PTRs) in many boroughs. Worsening PTRs will most likely mean larger classes or greater use of unqualified staff to ‘teach’ children. Falling rolls in London: much worse than the rest of England | John Howson

A closer examination of the data reveals that the boroughs with greater issues of deprivation seem more seriously affected by the worsening PTRs. However, boroughs are frequently not homogenous in nature. Haringey has affluent Highgate in the same borough as Bruce Grove and Wood Green.

As a result, it is worth looking at the data from the lens of a smaller unit such as the parliamentary constituencies, although it has to be acknowledged that many of those are also not homogenous: Edmonton & Winchmore Hill and Southgate and Wood Green both spring to mind as two constituencies with very different localities within them. However, constituencies are better than boroughs and larger than council wards – too small for this exercise.

The following chart plots the index of multiple deprivation score for each current London parliamentary constituency against the index of education, skills and training deprivation taken from the work undertaken by the House of Commons library Deprivation in English constituencies, 2025 – House of Commons Library

The red dots on the plot are constituencies where the PTR in the constituency, as measured by the DfE, has worsened between 2022/23 and 2025/26. The green dots show constituencies where the PTRs has improved, and the yellow dots are where the PTR was the same in the most recent year as it was in 2022/23.

As expected, there is a strong correlation between constituencies with a high score for multiple deprivation and their score on the education, skills and training deprivation index. However, many constituencies with high deprivation scores have also seen their PTRs worsen – red dots on the chart.

Of course, London primary PTRS are still some of the most favourable in the country, but just not as good as they were a few years ago. The question therefore arises as to whether worsening PTRs will lead to a deterioration in outcomes from the levels achieved in the quarter century since the introduction of the London Challenge and all that went with it.

It is also worth noting that the data was based upon the ratio of qualified teachers to pupils. Many London schools have unqualified teachers, employed through programmes such as Teach First and the apprenticeship scheme. However, both schemes are more common in the secondary sector than in primary schools.

The following table lists the changes in primary PTR by constituency and adds my view of whether each constituency is an:

Inner-City IC

Inner Suburb IS

Outer suburb OS

Constituency. This is a subjective judgement on my part, but it does reveal that from the list that Holborn & St Pancreas appears to be the only inner-city constituency with an improved PTR over the period. Why that should be is an interesting question that cannot be answered from the data alone.

It’s the numbers not the percentages that matter most

Posted on June 15, 2026 by John Howson

Each year, the DfE publishes details about the workforce in schools. The data about teacher numbers are collected in the School Workforce Survey, conducted every November.

Included in the data are details about teacher retention in state funded schools. Interestingly, although the DfE provided the actual number of NQTs each year, the retention data is shown as a percentage of that base number. Release home – School workforce in England – Explore education statistics – GOV.UK as demonstrated in the following table.

The picture is obvious, despite some late arrivals after qualifying, the percentage falls for each extra year of service, so that of the 2010 cohort, only 59.2% were still in service after 10 years.

Over the past few years, the percentage in service after one year has fluctuated from a low of 85.1 for the 2016 cohort to a high of 89.9 for 2023 cohort, with the 2024 cohort still doing well, with a retention rate of 89.7% at year 2. This looks like good news for the government.

However, there is less good news for the cohort that joined during covid in 2020 and 2012. For these two cohorts, retention after four and five years is poor, and back to levels last seen in 2014 for the 2021 cohort.

So, good news, retention is improving. Might the government even meet its target of of 6,500 extra teachers? Now it is time to change the percentages into numbers.

Here the picture is different. I have projected an extra year for the 2024 cohort and two years for the 2023 cohort just to show what might happen. The behaviour of those two cohorts is very important as they represent the lowest intakes of NQTs since 2010. Sadly, the government doesn’t publish the table by sectors. This is important because it is the key secondary subjects that already start with shortages where retention really matters for the performance of the school system, and especially for the outcomes for children in schools with high percentages of pupils on Free School Meals.

The current ten-year loss numbers show a worrying trend.

Hopefully, this loss of experienced teachers will reduce over the next few years, as the cohorts following the 2015 cohort have better retention numbers and percentages. The real concern is the 2020 and 2021 cohorts.

However, with falling rolls, starting to appear in the secondary sector, and already seriously affecting the primary sector in London, the retention rates for teachers may well improve, if schools can continue to afford the same number of teachers.

As my previous posts have made clear, the relationship between the National Funding Formula and pupil numbers will be crucial to future size of the teaching force. Falling Rolls: Is the funding formula making matters worse? | John Howson

AI – a reminder from 2018

Posted on June 14, 2026 by John Howson

Sometimes it is worth repeating an earlier post. This one about AI and education was from as long ago as 2018. The post dealt with a Report by a House of Lords Committee. The most prescient section was;

“One witness warned the Committee, “that the idealised world represented on social media “leads to many illnesses including eating disorders … and serious mental illnesses”. The implication being that schools must put in place strategies to prevent such outcomes among future generations exposed to the perils of the modern world.”

You can read the full post at: AI and education – The view of the House of Lords Committee | John Howson

So, way back before Covid, Westminster was being warned about serious mental illnesses- that might impact schools, my highlighting.

Well, post covid, the SEND demand has not been generated by physical needs. The government seems to have largely ignored the warnings and is now trying to put ‘the stopper back in the bottle’, to use a phrase popular with the BBC this week.

Can we save on defence sending if we use some of the education budget to help the next generation work with the developments created by AI?

As Ukraine and The Gulf have shown, the mental capabilities of the armed forces may be more important than the physical attributes in a defensive war. We won’t be fighting imperial wars again – or I hope not – Iraq should have been the last one, if Afghanistan is seen as punishment campaign not a land grab, but without an endgame strategy that the Americans seem so bad at understanding is an essential part of any military operation or war.

I am not sure that the curriculum Review – remember that damp squib – really took on board the changes AI would bring to society. The Microprocessor revolution that changed the 1980s; the internet revolution of the late 1990s and the Jave Enabled smart phone revolution of the second decade of our century each changed children’s lives. AI has already done so, and will continue to do so in ways someone of my age cannot even imagine.

I have found turning a blog post into a webinar in just minutes awesome. Creating a poster from the same text is improving all the time, and its outcomes can now be regularly seen on LinkedIn and other social media platforms.

We are a tech savvy nation; but not yet a tech savvy education system. Is it time for bodies like The Royal Society to make their voice known, along with those that represent our creative industries, equally affected by AI.

I wrote in another post that ’the market porter of the early 20^th century was replaced by the forklift truck driver. They in turn were replaced by the software engineer creating automated warehouses. Now AI will make most software engineers redundant, in the same way as the forklift truck driver has started to disappear as a role in warehousing.

Radical change is necessary in our education system. Do we need a national conversation around what that change should be, and not just a professional curriculum review?

Falling rolls in London: much worse than the rest of England

Posted on June 12, 2026 by John Howson

In my last post on this blog, I looked at the worsening of primary PTRs across much of the DfE’s ‘Inner London’ area. Falling Rolls: Is the funding formula making matters worse? | John Howson

This post looks how ‘Inner London boroughs have fare compared with the rest of England over those three years?

I think it is fair to say that London as a whole really has seen a significant downturn in primary pupil numbers. There are 22 local authorities where primary pupil numbers as published by the DfE have reduced by 5% or more between 2023/24 and 2025/26. Of these, 13 are London boroughs, and six – seven if Newham is included – are Inner London boroughs.

Seven of the top 10 places for the largest percentage decline in primary pupil numbers are filled by London boroughs. The other three places are taken by the Isle of Wight, Rutland and Torbay, three of the smallest unitary authorities in England.

Birmingham, Manchester and Leicester are the only large cities in the table. They fill three of the four bottom places for local authorities with a decline in pupil numbers of five per cent or more, along with Hillingdon in West London.

At the other end of the table, there are few London boroughs with less than a two per cent decline in their primary pupil populations.

London boroughs at this end of the table seem to be mostly outer London boroughs on the fringe of the metropolitan area. By contrast, there are seven county councils in the list of lowest declines in pupil numbers. This number increases to eight, if the Staffordshire figure, of an increase in pupil numbers, is correct.

The London boroughs will have the numbers in reception for each year, and will know how much worse the decline is likely to become over the next few years. More school closures look inevitable unless the funding model is changed to protect schools with declining rolls.

Not to protect the school estate in London is to assume that there will never be an upturn in pupil numbers. In cities, closing schools and selling off the site for housing means that in any upturn land may not be available for any new schools needed for the extra pupils. This is where thinking for the longer-term is important. During the last downturn of this size, most schools in London remained open, although some, such as Stamford Hill Infant and Junior School in Haringey, where I attended in the 1950s, did eventually close. Interestingly, the one form entry St Anne’s Church of England Primary School, close to Stamford Hill School that wasn’t actually in Stamford Hill, is still open.

However, this is not the post to discuss whether or not, in a more secular society, faith run schools should be closed where an alternative non-faith school can absorb the pupils. But this is an issue to debate, especially in urban areas.

In villages, the church-run school may still be the only school available, and that raises a much larger question about who should run state funded schooling? As the Wesleyan Methodists put it when faced by the 1902 Act, and decisions on whether to open state-funded secondary schools; are our teachers, teachers of children or teachers of Methodist children?

Falling Rolls: Is the funding formula making matters worse?

Posted on June 8, 2026 by John Howson

There has been a lot of discussion recently about falling school rolls in the primary school sector in London. This discussion led me to wonder whether a funding formula that is heavily weighted to a per pupil funding model might mean schools with falling rolls would have to adapt to a decrease in their income.

One possible outcome of less funding could be a worsening of pupil teacher ratios if individual support for pupils with SEND is cut, and also whole classes are amalgamated. My thesis is that Inner London boroughs might be witnessing the worst of the falling rolls problem, partly because they are boroughs with little room for new housing to be built, but also because inner cities have traditionally been the home of new arrivals to a country. Post Brexit, many European families from countries such as Poland and Romania may also have chosen to return home, taking their children with them.

With the release last week of the school workforce data for 2025/26, by the DfE, it is possible to review the pupil teacher ratios (PTRs) for each borough for the three-year period from 2023/24 to 2025/26.

Of the boroughs in London, including the City of London, 11 boroughs improved their primary PTRs between 2023/24 and 2025/26. All but one, Camden, were Outer London boroughs. All the other Inner London boroughs recorded a worsening of their primary PTRS over the three- year period.

In the case of Kensington and Chelesea, albeit a small borough, the change was from 17.2 to 19.1 pupils per teacher over the three years: a decline of some 10%. This is a relatively large change for such a short period of time.

Seven Outer London boroughs also recorded a worsening of their primary PTRs over the same period. Of these boroughs, two, Newham and Greenwich have been classified as Inner London boroughs at sometime in the past.

Apart from the City of London, the boroughs with most improved PTRs are on the edge of London – Harrow, Havering, Hillingdon, Barnet, Croydon and Bromley.

The data in the table does suggest that falling rolls have been accompanied by a worsening of PTRs. Might this be caused in part by the construction of the National Funding formula that is heavily weighted towards a per pupil element? Reduced funding is certainly likely to impact upon class sizes and the use of teachers with small groups. Increasing class sizes and cutting individual teacher support for vulnerable learners is likely to impact upon a school’s PTR. If the reduction in pupil number sis widespread across a borough, then the impact will be seen in the PTRS for all primary schools in the borough.

I think that there is a case to be made that falling rolls are worsening PTRs for the remaining pupils across much of Inner London.

For a longer-term analysis of PTRS in London, and how over time they have been better than in most of England see (1) (PDF) PTRS OVER TIME: A REVIEW OF PUPIL TEACHER RATIOS BETWEEN 1974 AND 2024 AND TWO PERIODS OF LOCAL GOVERNMENT RE-ORGANISATION PTRS OVER TIME: A REVIEW OF PUPIL TEACHER RATIOS

When is a pledge not a pledge?

Posted on June 6, 2026 by John Howson

When is a pledge not a pledge? Change Labour Party Manifesto 2024

The headline in Labour’s 2024 General Election Manifesto said:

“Recruit 6,500 new teachers in key subjects to prepare children for life, work and the future, paid for by ending tax breaks for private schools.”

Note, nothing about lecturers and further education, and key subjects weren’t defined

In the text of the manifesto the promise or pledge was slightly different. The commitment was to recruit an additional 6,500 new expert teachers. Again, no mention of lecturers and further education and ‘key subjects’ didn’t appear, but ‘shortage subjects’ did. Page 82

“The factor that makes the biggest difference to a child’s education is high-quality teaching; but there are shortages of qualified teachers across the country. Labour will recruit an additional 6,500 new expert teachers. We will get more teachers into shortage subjects, support areas that face recruitment challenges, and tackle retention issues. The way bursaries are allocated, and the structure of retention payments, will be reviewed.”

Interestingly, there was also mention of ‘support areas that face recruitment challenges, and tackle retention issues.’

In the review of the 2025 Workforce, the DfE comment that

“The government, in its opportunity mission, has set a pledge to recruit 6,500 additional teachers. Further information on this ambition can be found in the 6,500 additional teachers delivery plan (opens in new tab). Latest figures show an increase of 3,000 secondary and special teachers since 2023/24 which contributes to this target. Combined statistics across schools and further education show an increase of 4,654 against this 6,500 target.” Release home – School workforce in England – Explore education statistics – GOV.UK

There doesn’t seem to be any mention of how these additional teachers ‘support areas that face recruitment challenges, and tackle retention issues.’ According to the DfE, The pledge is for mainstream secondary schools, special schools, further education (FE) colleges, and FE school based providers; it does not include primary schools. Latest figures show an increase of 3,000 secondary and special teachers since 2023/24 which contributes to this target.

However, much of the increase may well be down to improved retention rather than increased recruitment. Sadly, the headcount for both physics and chemistry teachers for all years 7-13 are still below the 2020/21 figure

Physics

2020/21 6,693

2024/25 6,465

2025/26 6,127

Chemistry

Physics

2020/21 5,886

2024/25 5,602

2025/26 5,357

So, there must be some questions to ask about the number of teachers in these subjects, and the aim to ‘get more teachers into shortage subjects’.

Still, perhaps the percentage of hours taught by those with qualifications has increased. Sadly, not since 2020/21

Percentage of hours taught by teachers with qualification for ‘Subjects taught and Specialist teachers and hours’ for 7 to 13

Chemistry

2020/21 48.9%

2024/25 45.7%

2025/26 44/7%

Physics

2020/21 45.2%

2024/25 42.8%

2025/26 41.2%

So, increased ITT numbers and better retention has yet to feed through to the teaching of physics and chemistry. Perhaps it is because of the way teaching in years 7-9 is arranged in most schools. What about teaching in sixth forms of Years 12 and 13?

Percentage of hours taught by teachers with qualification for ‘Subjects taught and Specialist teachers and hours’ for Years 12 to 13, Chemistry, PGCE, PGDE, ProfGCE, or ProfGDE, Physics and Qualified teacher in England between 2020/21 and 2025/26

Chemistry

2020/21 52.6%

2024/25 49.5%

2025/26 49.1%

Physics

2020/21 52.4%

2024/25 49.4%

2025/26 47.4%

I find this decrease disappointing.

Overall, there is some way to go to meet the manifesto wording, and with static rolls and funding for schools likely to be challenging, I wonder whether the proliferation of small sixth forms is helping or hindering the teaching of these subjects. Perhaps the DfE can identify whether there is any link between the sixth of sixth form groups and the qualifications of those teaching Years 12 and 13?

Demand for music teachers: where were the jobs in early 2026?

Posted on June 1, 2026 by John Howson

This post follows on from my previous post, written yesterday, and looks in more detail at the vacancies for music teachers tracked since January 1^st 2026. Music teachers: labour market update | John Howson

Due to further data cleansing, the numbers may slightly differ from yesterday in some respects after mis-allocations in certain fields have been corrected.

Vacancies are generally either for a main scale/Upper Pay Spine post or for a promoted post.

In terms of the ratio of promoted posts with a TLR, or in a few cases a Leadership Scale offer, to posts without any additional allowance, the East Midlands region tops the list at 37% of advertised posts with a TLR. At the other end of the scale, no promoted posts have been recorded for the North East. It may be that schools in the North East use regional job boards for promoted posts. Those boards are currently out of scope of my survey.

The East of England region also had a lower-than-average percentage of promoted posts in the total of advertised vacancies. However, this may be partly due to the larger than average number of posts advertised without any additional pay supplement dragging down the percentage of promoted posts.

Most promoted post are TLRs advertised as a 2b.

In terms of the need to re-advertise vacancies for teachers of music, there are three clear regional groups: the East Midland and East of England with well above average levels of schools re-advertising; Yorkshire and The Humber region where, to date, no re-advertisements have been recorded, along with the West Midlands, North East and South West, regions with well below average levels of re-advertisements.

The remaining regions have re-advertisement rates broadly in line with the national average. Of course, there is still time for other schools to re-advertise before the end of the summer term. However, as they would only be attracting ITT completers or returners, this might be something of a futile exercise, only worthwhile if at no cost, such as using the DfE vacancy website.

Interesting questions that arise from the data are: how well does ITT provision map with demand and are there any characteristics of schools that re-advertise vacancies – high free school meal percentages; excellent music departments; high-cost housing areas; long distance from ITT provision no recent history of schools being used by trainees?

Other interesting questions to research include: the balance of full-time versus part-time vacancies and between permanent and temporary vacancies; and how many of the latter are as a result of a teacher taking maternity leave? Fortunately this data has been collected along with whether or not the school is an academy and if the post is eligible for visa sponsorship: most are not.

If I have the time, I will try and address some of these questions in the round-up after the end of the summer term in August. Meantime, any views would be welcome in the comments section.

Music teachers: labour market update

Posted on May 31, 2026 by John Howson

One of the leitmotifs of this blog has been around the labour market for teachers, from numbers entering training, through vacancies for teachers, to the numbers of teachers that are in-service.

This academic year, I have been tracking the data on vacancies for headteachers – a study started more than 40 years ago – and vacancies for teachers of music. This is as a part of my campaign to see the bursary returned to trainee teachers of music, after the Labour government axed it an act of cultural vandalism that I might have expected from other political parties, but not from Labour.

Anyway, enough of my rant. Does the data support my thesis that there are not enough music trainees this year, even with the bursary, and that any reduction in trainee numbers will affect the 2027 labour market, making it more difficult for schools, and especially secondary schools in challenging circumstances, to recruit music teachers? For earlier discussions on this point see: Music teachers: bring back the bursary | John Howson and Reviving Music Teacher Bursaries: A Necessity | John Howson

The graph in this post shows recorded 2026 vacancies for main scale teachers of music (no TLR) advertised since the start of January2026, and recorded from both the DfE vacancy site and the tes job board. The 2026 data have been plotted against previous years data, collected by TeachVac from school websites and local authority job boards.

The plotted line is the residual, reached after subtracting the recorded vacancies from number of trainees contained in the DfE’s ITT census published in the December 2025. By Friday 29^th May 2026 the residual number had just turned negative; meaning more vacancies recorded than trainees possibly available to enter the labour market.

Two caveats are required at this point: not all trainees will complete their course, and of those that do, not all will enter teaching in state schools – some with not teach, others will teach in Sixth Form Colleges, and yet other will teach in the independent sector that now comprises a significant proportion of ‘A’ Music level entries. The second caveat is that in addition to trainees, there will be other entrants into the music teacher labour market. Some other entrants will be switching schools, but possibly most will be doing for a teaching job with a TLR. Then there will be those returning to state school teaching either from other jobs or a career break. This group will become increasingly important for the job market as the rest of 2026 unfolds, and the new entrants into teaching either find a teaching post in a state school of opt to work elsewhere.

For various reasons TeachVac stopped collecting data in 2023, so the data for 2024 and 2025 is missing. Comparing 2026 with earlier years, shows a trend worse than before covid, but better than in 2022, and the disastrous 2023, when poor recruitment into ITT in 2022 and the number of new schools opening in response to the increase in the secondary school population ensured a higher-than-normal demand for teachers. However, here was my analysis in June 2023 TeachVac’s index shows depth of teacher recruitment crisis | John Howson

For the current market outcome, if you discount the ITT 2025 census total by either 10% or 20%, for numbers in the census not likely to enter mainstream school teaching in the secondary sector, then the current negative residual at the end of May 2026, of -5, worsens to either -41 or -78.

This number assumes that vacancies tracked cover the whole market and that regional or other job boards, such as within large MATs, that are not counted in my survey have not seen many vacancies not placed on either the DfE or tes site.

Some schools may have offered trainees working in their schools a job, and saved on advertising costs. However, without more detailed surveys, such jobs would be difficult to account for.

One issue overcome by direct verification of the DfE and tes sites, is the thorny question of re-advertisements and repeat advertisements. The data used in this report ignores any second or subsequent advertisement by a school for a teacher of music unless it is significantly different to any previous advertised vacancy. Examples include a part-time post when the previous vacancy was for a full-time teachers and a maternity leave temporary post following one for a permanent appointment.

In a future post, I will look into the characteristics of schools that have re-advertised a vacancy.

After weighing the data on vacancies so far, and trends in ITT recruitment – see More thoughts on the ITT round for 2026 | John Howson – I think the removal of the bursary by the DfE was a risk, and that it may damage the future of music in state secondary schools in the future. I look forward to being proved wrong.