KS2: The London effect?

Posted on December 12, 2025 by John Howson

Earlier this year, I produced a report looking at the changes in pupil teacher ratios over the past fifty years as between London boroughs and the rest of England’s local authorities that have remained on the same boundaries since 1974. London boroughs generally have had some of the ‘best’ PTRs throughout the past 50 years. As a result, it was no surprise to see how well schools in the London boroughs performed in the KS2 results for 2025, published by the DfE yesterday.

It is interesting to look at just one measure, the percentage of pupils achieving the higher standard in Reading, and the percentage change in this measure over the past decade or so.

	2015/16	2024/25
	higher	higher	difference
LA	Reading	Reading
Waltham Forest	15%	44%	29%
Redbridge	19%	45%	26%
Westminster	18%	43%	25%
Haringey	20%	43%	23%
Newham	18%	41%	23%
Hammersmith and Fulham	24%	46%	22%
Luton	11%	33%	22%
Merton	22%	44%	22%
Barking and Dagenham	15%	37%	22%
Enfield	15%	37%	22%
Sutton	25%	47%	22%
Hackney	21%	42%	21%
Brent	16%	37%	21%
Barnet	24%	44%	20%
Bexley	20%	40%	20%
Lewisham	19%	39%	20%
Southwark	19%	39%	20%
Slough	19%	39%	20%
Tower Hamlets	18%	38%	20%
Birmingham	14%	34%	20%
Leicester	11%	31%	20%
Trafford	27%	47%	20%
Solihull	20%	39%	19%
Hillingdon	19%	38%	19%
Ealing	18%	37%	19%
Wolverhampton	14%	33%	19%
Barnsley	13%	32%	19%
Thurrock	13%	32%	19%
Doncaster	11%	30%	19%
Camden	23%	42%	19%
Greenwich	22%	41%	19%
Croydon	17%	36%	19%
Richmond upon Thames	36%	54%	18%
Kingston upon Hull, City of	15%	33%	18%
Kensington and Chelsea	30%	48%	18%
Blackburn with Darwen	13%	31%	18%
Walsall	13%	31%	18%
Knowsley	12%	30%	18%
North East Lincolnshire	11%	29%	18%
Lambeth	23%	40%	17%
Stockport	22%	39%	17%
Warrington	21%	38%	17%
Stockton-on-Tees	16%	33%	17%
Bromley	27%	44%	17%
Wandsworth	25%	42%	17%
Harrow	24%	41%	17%
Milton Keynes	19%	36%	17%
Sandwell	13%	30%	17%

Leaving aside the City of London, with its one primary school that has been excluded form the dataset, 28 of the London boroughs appear in the table. This compares with 20 local authorities outside of London. None of the latter are ‘shire’ counties. Not even the Home Counties of Surrey or Hertfordshire make it into the list.

Looking at the other end of the table, there is a preponderance of counties authorities in the list

Tameside	15%	28%	13%
Southend-on-Sea	20%	33%	13%
South Gloucestershire	20%	33%	13%
Telford and Wrekin	19%	32%	13%
St. Helens	18%	31%	13%
Rochdale	14%	27%	13%
Portsmouth	14%	27%	13%
Blackpool	13%	26%	13%
Oldham	13%	26%	13%
Rutland	23%	36%	13%
Cheshire East	22%	35%	13%
Cambridgeshire	22%	35%	13%
Lancashire	17%	30%	13%
Bedford	16%	29%	13%
Cheshire West and Chester	22%	34%	12%
Havering	22%	34%	12%
Herefordshire, County of	21%	33%	12%
Nottingham	15%	27%	12%
Gateshead	20%	32%	12%
Cornwall	20%	32%	12%
Torbay	20%	32%	12%
East Sussex	19%	31%	12%
South Tyneside	18%	30%	12%
Derbyshire	18%	30%	12%
Suffolk	18%	30%	12%
Swindon	18%	30%	12%
Derby	14%	26%	12%
Warwickshire	23%	35%	12%
Oxfordshire	23%	35%	12%
Gloucestershire	23%	35%	12%
Southampton	17%	29%	12%
Hampshire	23%	34%	11%
Devon	23%	34%	11%
Bristol, City of	22%	33%	11%
North Somerset	22%	33%	11%
Lincolnshire	17%	28%	11%
Central Bedfordshire	17%	28%	11%
County Durham	20%	31%	11%
Calderdale	20%	31%	11%
Shropshire	20%	31%	11%
Sefton	18%	29%	11%
Norfolk	18%	29%	11%
East Riding of Yorkshire	18%	28%	10%
Wiltshire	23%	33%	10%
Darlington	22%	32%	10%
West Berkshire	25%	34%	9%
Bath and North East Somerset	27%	36%	9%
Brighton and Hove	26%	35%	9%
Northumberland	21%	29%	8%
Isle of Wight	16%	23%	7%

Even among the unitary authorities in the list, some, such as the East riding of Yorkshire and West Berkshire might be considered predominantly rural in nature.

So, what might be deduced from this data? Parental help does make a difference. Has the ‘gentrification’ of Walthamstow help propel it to the top of the table? To consider the issue of parental support versus government funding for schools it is worth considering the present percentage of achievement at this higher grade by schools in two parliamentary constituencies that I am familiar with; Tottenham, where I started my teaching career, and Oxford East, part of the city where I have lived and worked for the past 45 years.

SCHOOL Higher Grade RWM in KS” 2025	TOTENHAM	OXFORD EAST
A	35
B	27
C	23
D	18	18
E	17	17
F	15
G	15
H	15
I	14	14
J	13	13
K	13	13
L		13
M	12
N	11	11
O	10	10
P	9	9
Q		9
R	8
S	8
T	7	7
U	7	7
V	7	7
W	7	7
X	6
Y	6
Z	5	5
AA		5
AB		5
AC	4	4
AD	4	4
AE	3	3
AF		3
AG	2	3
AH		2
AI		2
AJ	0	0
AK		0


total	322	193
schools	28	27
average	11.5	7.1

Both might be seen as constituencies with significant pockets of deprivation, but also areas subject to ‘gentrification’ in recent years. Schools in Oxford East have a profile with lower percentages than schools in Tottenham. How much of the difference can be ascribed to parents, and how much to better funding for London schools? Of course, class sizes also matter. But, as both are urban areas, the issue of small rural schools doesn’t really arise as it would if one compared Oxford East with its neighbouring constituency of Henley.

This work is at an early stage, but it does pose the question about the deep structure of school funding and, especially, the use of average salary data in any calculations in the funding of schools.

ITT becomes more cosmopolitan

Posted on December 5, 2025 by John Howson

Over the past few years, the percentage of the total number of graduates training to be a teacher coming from the United Kingdom has fallen, year on year. On the other hand, the percentage of trainees on these courses from both EEA and ‘other’ countries has increased.

YEAR	UK	EEA	OTHER	KNOWN	% OTHER	% EEA	EEA + OTHER
16/17	23658	1295	506	25459	2%	5%	7%
17/18	24223	1294	532	26049	2%	5%	7%
18/19	26550	1422	634	28606	2%	5%	7%
19/20	26562	1470	806	28838	3%	5%	8%
20/21	31418	1747	919	34084	3%	5%	8%
21/22	27628	1210	823	29661	3%	4%	7%
22/23	20019	1201	722	21942	3%	5%	9%
23/24	19363	880	1053	21296	5%	4%	9%
24/25	20586	1381	1351	23318	6%	6%	12%
25/26	22492	1543	2082	26117	8%	6%	14%

The table has been abstracted from the DfE data catalogue associated with the annual ITT census.https://explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/initial-teacher-training-census/2025-26

This year, trainees from countries in the ‘other’ group accounted for a record eight per cent of postgraduate trainees. Taken together with the percentage from EEA countries, some 14% of the current cohort of postgraduate trainees were from these two groups. The home student total was still 86%, but that is the national figure.

This influx of overseas trainees has helped the government meet more of its targets for secondary subjects than had it just had to rely upon home-based students to fill the places. These cosmopolitan students bring fresh perspectives that will help widen the experience of the home students they are studying alongside.

However, as my previous post suggested, these ‘overseas’ trainees are not likely to be spready evenly across courses, or across the country. A significant number will be on courses in London, while few will be on courses located a significant distance from the capital.

What matters more, is what happens to these trainees at the end of their courses. Will they be able to enter the labour market for teachers, and be provided work visas.as important, after training in England, will they want to teacher in this country or will they look to the rapidly expanding international school market for employment opportunities.

Interestingly, of the nearly 4,500 vacancies currently listed on the DfE job site, only 18 appear to say that ‘visas can be sponsored’. No doubt, when faced with a great trainee and a vacancy that might prove a challenge to fill, attitudes might alter. However, none of the current physics posts sponsor visa students.

Why am I interested in this data? Mostly because the DfE seems to think its job is done with the publication of the ITT census, and the provision of a vacancy website.

Ever since I founded TeachVac in 2013, I have been of the firm belief that as local authorities recede into the background with regard to schooling, so central government needs to know more about the workings of the labour market for teachers. If all 3,500 non-UK trainees didn’t teach in state schools in England, and a number of UK citizens decided to teach overseas, what would be the implications for schools across England? And what would it do to the agenda of lifting young people out of poverty?

Ethnic minority trainee teachers: still huge regional differences in trainee numbers

Posted on December 4, 2025 by John Howson

1n the autumn of 1997, Baroness Estelle Morris, at that time a junior minister in the DfE, in the new Labour government of Tony Blair, opened a conference about recruiting more ethnic minority students to become a teacher. The conference was organised by the then Teacher Training Agency. That conference was held in East London, and was followed by two more in Leeds and Birmingham.

Fast forward to the ITT census produced by the DfE today, and ask the question: how successful has the campaign to recruit certain ethnic groups into teaching been since that first conference nearly 30 years ago? Initial teacher training: trainee number census 2025 to 2026 – GOV.UK

Looking at the group that has found most difficultly in becoming a teacher over the years – Black African/Black Caribbean – there still seem to be big challenges looking at today’s data. Whether these are because students from this ethnic grouping aren’t attracted to parts of the country where there are few of their compatriots or whether there are other reasons cannot be determined just from the numbers.

However, over 500 courses have no candidates recorded from this group in the data published in Table 12 today. Just over 900 courses have between one and four candidates from the ethnic group. A further 83 courses have the number suppressed as being too low, as it might allow an individual to be identified.

A quick review of courses with the highest percentage (over 50% of each course code) shows that 24 are courses run by providers in London; just three are from outside London, and for three the name does not provide a clue to the location.

Looking at the courses with more than 100 candidates from the Black ethnic group: four are located in London – two each from UCL and Teach First – and the fifth is a national SCITT.

As might be expected, the University of East London, and several other London post 1992 universities, feature in the list of providers with between 25% and 50% of course numbers from the Black group, each with several courses in this percentage range. Most other pre-1992 universities and other post-1992 universities and the SCITTs in London have many of their courses in the 15%-25% group of providers. Few, if any, London providers feature in the list with zero percentage from the black group.

While it is good that courses in London do seem to be attracting applications from the Black ethnic group, there are still many courses in large parts of the country where that seems not to be the case. Does this matter? Would a ‘token’ representative on a single course in an institution be anything more than a token. Should we encourage such students to be trailblazers r should we accept that outside of the conurbations and a few university towns, graduates from the black ethnic group are still relatively rare.

I went to school in the 1960s with one of the few Black pupils in the school. He went on to become a teacher when Black teachers were even thinner on the ground than now, even in London.

So, there has been some progress, but not enough.

Teaching a global profession? What do the physics ITT numbers tell us?

Posted on December 4, 2025 by John Howson

My previous post contained the good news for the government in the headline data about their annual census of those on teacher preparation courses. Digging down into the details of the census, there is at least one worrying trend. https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/initial-teacher-training-trainee-number-census-2025-to-2026

The percentage of accepted ITT candidates within each nationality group for selected subjects for 2024/25 and 2025/26

	Percentage of accepted candidates
	UK and Irish national		EEA national		Other nationality
	2024/25	2025/26	2024/25	2025/26	2024/25	2025/26
Total	88%	86%	5%	5%	8%	9%
Primary	94%	94%	2%	3%	4%	3%
Secondary	84%	82%	6%	6%	10%	13%
STEM Subjects	76%	74%	5%	5%	19%	22%
Physics	43%	32%	3%	2%	54%	66%
English	93%	93%	3%	2%	4%	5%
Mathematics	81%	81%	5%	5%	13%	14%

High Potential ITT (HPITT) route and undergraduate routes are not included in this data.
Subject-level candidate totals will not sum to the total candidate number due to duplication caused by candidates applying for multiple subjects.

The footnote about undergraduate routes should not be of concern as there are relatively few such courses for secondary subjects, and the numbers on primary undergraduate courses have been declining over the longer-term.

Of much more concern is the decline in percentage of accepted candidates for physics from the UK and Ireland, down from 43% last year to 32% this year. This has been balanced by and increase from 54% to 66% for candidates from outside the UK and EEA areas.

As there has bene a dramatic increase in the numbers of trainees in physics, does this matter?

On these percentages, the increase in UK and Irish trainees has been from only around 185 last year to 220 this year. That seems like a very small number and worth investigating to see if I am correct?

If I am correct, then the key issue is, where will the trainees from the rest of the world be able to teach? Will the present government’s stricter policies on immigration mean that they won’t be able to teach in England, or as graduates earning a good salary will they be given visas?

Of course, they may choose to teach in the new British state sponsored selective school being established in both India and the UAE that was recently approved by the Labour government.

British Education is a global export, regardless of the PISA scores of home students, and the destination of trainees, both within the state and private systems, as well as overseas, is an important piece of information Minister should pay more attention to than they do at present.

The number of Uk trainees is likely to be boosted in physics by those training through the High Potential route (Formerly known as Teach First), However, the data for those candidates is not included in the census this year.

No doubt there is room for some interesting parliamentary questions about trainee teachers and where they come from and where they go on to teach, especially for those that receive bursaries and other financial support from the State.

Too many teachers?

Posted on December 4, 2025 by John Howson

Earlier today the DfE published their Annual Census of ITT trainees. Published each December, the census identifies the numbers on the various teacher perpetration routes and some background information about their gender, ethnicity, degree class and routes into teaching. Initial teacher training: trainee number census 2025 to 2026 – GOV.UK

The census provides a helpful indication to schools about the labour market for the following September recruitment. In this case, September 2026.

In recent years, apart for during 2020 and the response to the pandemic, trainees number in many secondary subjects have been lees than the DfE predicted numbers needed to fill vacancies. In the primary sector, falling rolls and erratic recruitment numbers have meant there has been less of a coherent pattern about the balance between supply and likely demand for teachers. Of course, much depends upon assumptions about the turnover in the labour market, and the behaviour of possible ‘returners’ to teaching when reviewing recruitment patterns.

So, what of the current 2025/26 cohort?

subject	2024/25	2025/26
Percentage of Target at census date	%	%
Physical Education	213	202
Biology	116	151
Art & Design	64	128
Primary	88	126
History	116	125
Chemistry	62	118
Mathematics	72	113
Geography	91	111
English	99	106
Modern Languages	44	93
All Secondary	61	88
Computing	37	80
Physics	30	77
Classics	245	73
Design & Technology	40	70
Music	40	65
Religious Education	79	62
Drama	47	41
Business Studies	15	30
Other	15	14

The government can be pleased with some of the best recruitment levels to their targets in almost a generation – covid years excepted – but challenges still remain. Nine secondary subjects didn’t meet their target number, with business studies still recruiting poorly to teaching, along with drama and religious studies where the target was missed by a larger percentage than last year.

On the good news side, mathematic exceeded its target for the first time in a long while, and the increase to 77% of target in physics teachers is very welcome news.

There will be too many primary school teachers looking for jobs come September, and although course providers will be happy to have recruited 202% of the target for physical education trainees, this over-recruitment does beg the question as to whether recruitment controls should be once again considered as a deterrent to such significant over-recruitment?

Taken with the news, highlighted in my previous post, about attitudes to pay by serving teachers, the government can probably stop worrying abut teacher recruitment for the first time since 2012.

However, all is not good news, if the Curriculum Review is to be implemented in full, attention to recruitment in some subjects will be needed. In that respect, as already suggested by this blog in a previous post, removing the bursary from music seems like a daft idea. Yes, there was a 25% increase in outcome against target, but that still left a third of places unfilled. Music departments in schools are often small and cannot be easily covered by non-specialists, such as the spare PE teachers. Time to think again on the basis of these figures.

Teachers still need more holidays

Posted on December 2, 2025 by John Howson

The DfE recently released the results of the latest study into teacher workload and attitudes to teaching as a career. Working lives of teachers and leaders – wave 4 summary report

There is some good news for the government in the report, not least on pay, where teachers seem slightly more content about pay than a few years ago. It makes the possibility of industrial action less likely than before the recent pay awards.

This improvement in attitude may also partly be down to the fact that hours worked, as reported in the survey, have been reducing. Primary teachers were working 1.8 hours less per week in the 2025 survey than in the 2022 survey, and secondary school teachers, 1.9 hours less. Leaders work longer hours than teachers, but have also seen a slight fall in recorded hours worked.

Phase	2022	2023	2024	2025
Primary Teachers	53.2	53.9	52.5	51.4
Primary Leaders	57.2	57.9	57.6	56.5
Secondary Teachers	51.2	51.4	50.3	49.3
Secondary Leaders	54.7	55.5	54.8	52.8

Source Table 3.2 Working Lives of Teachers and Leaders Working lives of teachers and leaders – wave 4 summary report

My blog about ‘how much holiday do teachers have?’ that appeared on 20^th May 2022 has received more views than any other post on this blog; notching up over 6,000 views.

As a result, I thought that it would be interesting to see what the latest figures mean for teachers’ holidays. Assuming a normal week of 40 hours – yes on the high side, but stay with the calculations – this produces an average overtime of between 9.3 hours for a secondary school teacher and 17.3 for a secondary school leader.

phase	notional	actual	Difference in 2025	38 weeks	weeks hours/40
PT	40	51.4	11.4	433	11
PL	40	56.5	16.5	627	16
ST	40	49.3	9.3	353	9
SL	40	57.3	17.3	657	16

Now, multiply that overtime by 38 weeks, on the assumption that similar amount of time is spent working each week during the time pupils are in school (the use of 40 hours provides some leeway for lighter and heavier weeks. This provides a gross number of hours which when if divided by 40 produces unpaid overtime in weeks. The outcomes are

Primary Teachers 11 weeks

Secondary Teachers 9 weeks

Primary and secondary leaders 16 weeks.

Now, using the 38 weeks worked, and ignoring the 5 CPD days, that leaves 14 weeks for holidays and compensation for term-time working. On these calculations, school leaders receive no compensation, and thus no holiday under these calculations, while primary teachers have 3 weeks holiday and secondary teachers 5 weeks holiday.

Of course, pay may compensate for the additional workload, even if not paid as overtime. Personally, I doubt, except for the most well paid headteachers that the time teachers work is well fully compensated, if these numbers are correct.

The teachers’ contract is not radically different to the one I signed in 1971 with regard to holidays. My graduate colleagues outside of teaching have seen significant improvements in their holiday entitlements over the years since 1971 – many will not be working for two weeks over Christmas and the New Year, and if they are, they will receive time off in lieu.

Hopefully, as school rolls fall, the working week of teachers will also continue to reduce, especially with more sensible approaches to tasks such as marking and preparation. However, there is still a long way to go for teachers to feel that they genuinely have the same of holidays entitlement as most other graduates.

SEND: we know the issue – but we still won’t say how it will be solved

Posted on November 26, 2025 by John Howson

Buried in the OBR Review in Chapter 5 is the following CP 1439 – Office for Budget Responsibility – Economic and fiscal outlook – November 2025

Correction to Chapter 5, paragraph 5.19, second bullet Text currently reads: If it were fully funded within the Department for Education’s £69 billion RDEL core schools budget in 2028-29, this would imply a 1.7 per cent real fall in mainstream school spending per pupil rather than the 2.4 per cent increase planned by Government.

Text should read: If it were fully funded within the Department for Education’s £69 billion RDEL core schools budget in 2028-29, this would imply a 4.9 per cent real fall in mainstream school spending per pupil rather than the 0.5 per cent real increase planned by Government.

5.19 Special educational needs and disabilities: As set out in more detail in Box 5.1, the Government has announced that from 2028-29 the cost of SEND provision will be fully absorbed within the existing RDEL envelope. The Government has not set out any specific plans on how this pressure, which we estimate at £6 billion in 2028-29, would be accommodated within the existing RDEL envelope. If it were fully funded within the Department for Education’s £69 billion RDEL core schools budget in 2028-29, this would imply a 4.9 per cent real fall in mainstream school spending per pupil rather than the 0.5 per cent real increase planned by Government. The Government has stated that it will set out proposed reforms to SEND provision early in the new year.

So, another function disappears from local authorities, presumably to the DfE as SEND funding will be handled at a national level. Will it include management of transport as well as granting of EHCPs? Who knows, the OBR don’t, but warn that funding per pupil could fall by 4.9%. For many schools, this will be on top of any loss of income from falling rolls. Start planning now for such an outcome.

More to come when the White Paper finally emerges sometime in 2026

More men looking to teach

Posted on November 24, 2025 by John Howson

Today, the DfE published their first round of statistics about applications to train as a teacher on courses starting in the autumn of 2026. Generally, one has to be cautious about data from ‘applications’ and ‘offer’ statistics published in November, as this is very early in the application round.

However, with more than 20 years of data underpinning my remarks, I think it possible to say something.

Firstly, applications – and candidates may submit more than one – are up from 13,159 last November to 15,572 this year. Applications from men are up from 5,072 to 6,580, while those from women are up from 7,978 to 9,031. That equates to 1,052 more women applying, or an increase of 13%, but 1,508 more men; an increase of 30%. I cannot recall a time when the rate of increase in applications from men last outpaced those from women.

Part of this increase is probably down to the large increases in applications for mathematics, up from 1,657 last year to 1,929 this year. In computing, the applications are up from 509 to 841, and in physics from 1,694 to a staggering 3,277. All these are subjects that tend to attract more male than female candidates.

Aword of warning, before one becomes too carried away; applications from the Rest of the World are up from 3,540 last November to 5,120 this November. Might this account for part of the increase in male applicant in these subjects? Sadly, that cannot be determined from the published data.

Final year undergraduates are not yet swarming into teaching. No obvious concerns about loss of graduate jobs to AI from the 21 and under age group, where applications are actually down by 34 from 1,276 to 1,242. Presumably, studies still take precedence over job hunting.

However, there is a big increase in the 22-24 age group applying for teaching: up from 3,349 to 3,658 with nearly 200 of this increase from 22 year olds. Maybe summer 2025 graduates that are still job hunting are turning to teaching? There is little difference in interest in teaching from those over 45 years old. However, there has been a big jump (210) in interest from the 40-44 age group.

SCITTs is the only route to have seen fewer applications than in November 2025. This may reflect the fact that the SCITT route maty be less well-known to overseas applicants. Both teacher degree apprenticeships and PG teaching apprenticeships have seen significant increases in applications. It would be interesting to see this table by phase and subject.

On ‘offers’, it much depends upon how providers handle early applications. However, there is a trend with mathematics, computing, chemistry and physics all recording the highest ‘offer’ levels since 2013/14, whereas music has the lowest offer level since 2020/21. Most other subjects are close to where they would be expected to be, although biology, PE and geography are below where they might expect to be. PE probably over-recruited to current courses, and I would expect more caution there this year.

So, overall, a good start that should presage a good recruitment round unless something unforeseen happens.

No High Needs Block data in NFF announcement

Posted on November 20, 2025 by John Howson

Yesterday, the DfE announced the National Funding Formula (NFF) for 2026/27 The national funding formula for schools The formula covers schools and local authority delivered central services

Unlike last year, there is no section on the High Needs Block that deals with SEND funding. The details will be announced later, at some unspecified time. One other small change seems to be in the calculation of the sparsity index, where the footnote from the 2025/26 NFF document seems to be missing from the main document this year.

Last year, there as a footnote that stated in a footnote on page 26 – paragraphs were not numbered last year – that “6 A compatible school means one of the relevant phases which a pupil could attend. Selective grammar schools are not considered when identifying the second nearest compatible school, but faith schools are included.”

This year, paragraph 25 states that “Eligibility for sparsity funding depends on the distance the pupils living closest to the school would have to travel to their next nearest compatible school, and the average number of pupils per year group.” However, there is no comment about what is a compatible school.

So, no change, apart from the lack of a definition of a ‘compatible school’. This footnote has now been relocated to the Technical Manual, and appears as footnote 9 on page 19 of the manual. Schools block national funding formula 2026 to 2027: technical note

Overall, the minimum per pupil funding for primary pupils increases from £4955 to £5115, and for secondary pupils up to year 11, from £6,455 to £6,640. Schools

in IDACI band G will, as before, receive no additional funding through that factor. If they don’t qualify for additional funds through other factors, and some schools won’t, as 62.5% of LSOAs are in IDACI Band G, this could be a challenging year for them.

Many of these schools will no doubt turn to parents for support, or perhaps more will follow the north London school, and look to bring in additional income from operating overseas alongside the many private schools that already have overseas campuses?

With the budget next week, and the local government settlement not being announced any earlier than last year, plus the delay in the High Needs Block announcement, this is going to be a tough budget setting time for schools and local authorities between now and February, when the upper tier local authorities responsible for the NFF must set their council budgets.

Perhaps the High Needs block will feature as a rabbit in the Chancellor’s budget speech to make everyone feel better that the government has found a solution to the massive deficits protected by the override that was extended to March 2027.

Reading the document, I was also struck by the fact that there are more references to local authorities than to the ‘schools forum’. Has the latter run its course as a decision-making body? Is it time to review its future, and certainly its membership?

6500 new teachers: wasn’t that a manifesto pledge?

Posted on November 13, 2025 by John Howson

The DfE has today published the annual Education and Training Statistics for the whole of the United Kingdom. Education and training statistics for the UK, Reporting year 2025 – Explore education statistics – GOV.UKAs ever, there is a wealth of material and the devil is in the details.

The full-time equitant number of teachers in England increased between 2023/24 and 2024/25. The data for schools in England isn’t new, as it was first reported in June 2025 School workforce in England, Reporting year 2024 – Explore education statistics – GOV.UK

However, it is worth discussing the data again, as it will provide the basis against which any claims about increased teacher numbers will be judged.

Phase		201920	202021	202122	202223	202324	202425
Non-maintained mainstream	Total	76975	77310	71695	73255	75240	74100
Nursery	Total	1195	1160	1100	1065	1075	1060
Primary	Total	219960	221365	221230	220265	217460	214575
Secondary	Total	204715	209835	213630	216075	217565	219000
Special	Total	24280	25025	26005	27140	28240	29150
Total	Total	530800	538415	537285	541690	543930	542355
Total maintained	Total	453820	461105	465590	468435	468690	468260

The changes over one year and the whole of the time period are shown in this table

	Total	change on 202324	change on 201920
Non-maintained mainstream	Total	-1140	-2875
Nursery	Total	-15	-135
Primary	Total	-2885	-5385
Secondary	Total	1435	14285
Special	Total	910	4870
Total	Total	-1575	11555
Total maintained	Total	-430	14440

It is worth noting that as the school population increased, so did the number of teachers in state-maintained schools. Thus, between 2019/2020 and 2024/2025 teacher numbers increased by 14,440, although the decline in teachers in the nursery and primary schools had already started.

However, by 2024/25 the total teacher workforce was some 14,440 FTEs larger than it had been in 2019/2020 as a result of the increase in the number of secondary and special school teachers.

Between 2023/24 and 2024/25, teacher numbers in England continued to increase across both the secondary and special school sectors, but the decline in the primary sector teacher numbers continued. The nursey sector showed little change, but employs few teachers in state nursery schools as opposed to nursery classes in primary schools.

There is a message here for anyone considering a career as a primary school teacher. Before accepting a place on a teacher peroration course; do some homework on job possibilities in the area of the country where you would like to teach, especially if it is not where you are training.

I doubt that we have yet seen the end of the decline in teacher numbers in the primary sector, and it will be a buyer’s market, even in 2027 when those applying for courses starting next September will enter the labour market in large numbers.

In the past, under such conditions, schools have preferred to employ experienced teachers leaving new entrants to look for posts in schools for which they may not have been trained. Often the jobs will either be in schools with a higher deprivation index score or small schools with mixed age classes. Neither of these teaching situations may have been encountered during a one-year teacher preparation course, and can be challenging for new teachers if not adequately supported.

Don’t be afraid to ask about job prospects at interview, especially if you are paying your own tuition fees.

John Howson

Education and the numbers that affect what happens

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