Challenging schools still find keeping a headteacher challenging

Posted on February 23, 2026 by John Howson

Alongside the White Paper, published today by the DfE, The DfE also released a document entitled Schools, school workforce and pupils statistical analysis 2026 Schools, school workforce and pupils statistical analysis 2026

Within this document, I was interested to see a discussion of headteacher turnover by Pupil Premium Decline. This showed that for both primary and secondary schools, but especially for secondary schools, turnover of headteachers was more likely where Pupil Premium levels were higher. Thus, in Band 1, – most deprived – 8.7% of secondary school headteachers changed between November 2024 and November 2025. This compared with just 2.3% of headteacher vacancies in secondary schools in Band 10. The data was taken from the DfE’s own database of teacher records and the School Workforce census.

Readers of my post of yesterday, won’t be surprised by this piece of research Headteacher: recruitment bonus – good value or not? | John Howson

Interestingly, in September 2002, the then NCSL (National College for School Leadership) published a piece of research on headteacher turnover that I conducted for the College. ‘Staying Power: the relationship between headteachers’ length of service and PANDA grades. (PANDA grades were a measure of a school’s performance and schools were graded from A* to E*).

My research looked at secondary schools with either A* or A grades and compared them with schools with E* or E grades.

The research was based upon an analysis of vacancy advertisements for headteacher posts at these schools.

As with today’s research finding, in 2002, A* schools had the greatest percentage of headteachers with more than six years of service, and E* schools the smallest percentage of headteachers with more than six years f service at that school. There were 785 A*/A schools and 780 E*/E schools in the survey.

There was also an association between the PANDA grade and readvertisement rates. 8% of A* vacancies for a headteacher were re-advertised compared with 14% of E* headteacher vacancies, and 49% of schools rated as E.

As headteachers often move from headship into retirement, the age profile of the teaching profession is a factor affecting turnover. A younger profession means fewer headteachers reaching retirement age.

However, the thesis that the more challenging the school, the shorter the term of office of a headteachers, still seems as credible today as it was half a century ago. Whether the government’s policies as foreshadowed in the White Paper will help to change this pattern of turnover and length of service will be interesting to watch.

Overseas applicants boost teacher training numbers

Posted on February 23, 2026 by John Howson

As well as the White Paper, today also saw the publication of the February data on applications to postgraduate teacher preparation courses. Initial teacher training application statistics for courses starting in the 2026 to 2027 academic year – Apply for teacher training – GOV.UK

The headline number of note is the percentage of applications from outside of the United Kingdom. Last February these applicants totalled just over 6,000, accounting for 24% of all applications. This February, the applicants from outside the United Kingdon now total almost 10,500, and account for 33% of all applications.

The key question that the published data does not reveal, but is of great consequence, is whether these extra 4,000 candidates are applying across the board for all subjects, or are concentrated in just a few subjects?

This question is of real importance, as there is now a split between subjects where ‘offers’ are above last year, and those other subjects where, despite rising unemployment in the wider economy, ‘offers’ in February 2026 are below those from February 2025. Many of these latter subjects will likely miss their target once again this year unless there is a dramatic shift in applications during the second half of the recruitment round, such as last seen in 2020, as a result of the covid pandemic.

Doing better than last year with regard to ‘offers’ are: physics; mathematics; history; design & technology; computing; chemistry, drama, and primary sector courses. English is just about holding its own when compared with February 2025.

Doing less well than in February 2025 are: modern languages; art & design; religious education; physical education; music; geography; classics and biology. Of these subjects, the decline in offers for physical education should be of no concern as the number of ‘offers’ is already more than 900 or more than the combined total of ‘offers’ for art & design; drama; music; religious education and ‘other subjects.

Does this government not care about the arts? I have long campaigned for the return of the music bursary. With music ‘offers’ down at just 110 this February, compared with 139 last February, that is a loss of 29 potential teachers of music, and the gap with last year has widened since the January data were published.

So, are there any other worries? Applications from candidates over the age of 25 appear to be rising faster than from newly graduating students. There are only 128 more applications from the youngest age grouping, compared with 208 from the 45 to 49 age group, and more than 2,000 additional applicants this year from the 25 to 29 age group. It would be helpful to know in which age grouping the additional 4,500 applicants from outside the United Kingdom fall, and which subjects they have applied for this year?

With the increase in applications from men, up from 9,561 to 13,654 being proportionally more than the increase in applications from women, up from 15,735 to 18,224, it would also be informative to know which subjects these additional 4,000 male applicants have applied for, and how many fall into applicants from the ‘rest of the world’ group?

While apprenticeships have shown good growth in applications, higher education courses have had to deal with the bulk of the additional applicants, with more than 5,000 additional applicants. My guess would be that the bulk of the new overseas applicants are targeting higher education courses.

We now enter that period of the recruitment round where fewer undergraduates will be applying until after the examination season, so further growth between now and the July data are most likely from career changers rather than undergraduates. This fact might push the proportion of ’rest of the world’ applicants to an even higher percentage than the 33% recorded this month. Perhaps it is now time for the DfE to review how the data are published in order to make it more useful to those interested in the labour market for teachers?

Schools: the end of local authority involvement?

Posted on February 22, 2026 by John Howson

When I first started studying the governance of education, way back in 1979, there at that time two popular saying about the school system in England. One was that it was, ‘a partnership between local and national governments’ and the other that it was ‘a national system locally administered.’ A typical examination question was to ask how valid either of these statements were?

That was half a century ago; difficult for me to believe, but true nevertheless. I have witnessed a lot of changes during in the intervening years. Indeed, one of my few academic articles I have published was entitled ‘Variations in local authority provision of education’ and appeared in the Oxford Review of Education way back in the early 1980s. Interestingly, during the Labour government of the period between 1974-79, closing the gap in funding between the best and worst local authorities was a matter of academic interest. Anyone wanting to know more could do worse than read’ Depriving the Deprived’, written by Tunley, Travers and Platt, published in 1979, as it is about the funding of schooling across one London borough over one year.

For a comparison over a longer time period, my review of 50 years of pupil teacher ratios, published last summer and available for download on researchgate at (PDF) PTRS OVER TIME: A REVIEW OF PUPIL TEACHER RATIOS BETWEEN 1974 AND 2024 AND TWO PERIODS OF LOCAL GOVERNMENT RE-ORGANISATION PTRS OVER TIME: A REVIEW OF PUPIL TEACHER RATIOS

During the 50 years between local government reorganisation in 1974 and 2024, school funding decisions have been removed from local authorities, and nationalised; Education Committees have been abolished, in favour of cabinet government; teacher training and new schemes to prepare teachers have been taken over by Westminster; schools have been persuaded to become academies outwith local authority control, but still under church control if faith schools – if the white Paper leaks are correct all schools will now have to become an academy or free school; further and higher education were liberated from local authority oversight and funding in the early 1990s; ultimate control over place planning has remained with the DfE as only the DfE can sanction new schools being built.

What’s left for local authorities? SEND for a couple more years; admissions- including in-year admissions once the current Bill becomes law – and transport. Frankly, I cannot see local authorities, especially newly reorgnised upper tier authorities, wanting either of these functions in the future. And why would they, as these services can often be poisoned chalices.

So, are we moving to an NHS style system for schooling in England, with little local democratic oversight, and few routes for parents to complain about the education their child is receiving. I fear so.

Does it matter? That’s a matter of opinion. The world of 2026 is vastly different to that of sixty years ago, and it should be easier to produce a more level playing field with all the levers of funding and control being exercise from Westminster.

But I remain sceptical. Westminster has been unable to control issues such as MAT chief executive’s pay and the level of school reserves. At present it isn’t equipped to be a fully functioning operational department along the lines of the NHS of MoD. It will be interesting to see what, if anything, the White Paper has to say about governance when it is published tomorrow.

White Paper: bad news for rural primary schools

Posted on February 22, 2026 by John Howson

Tomorrow, Monday, we will see Labour’s White Paper in full. For now, we have copious leaks and SEND and other matters, such as how to tackle the outcome gaps between the most deprived pupils and their more fortunate fellows either sitting alongside them or in other schools to whet our appetite.

The replacement of Free School Meals as a measure of deprivation has been long overdue, but it will be interesting see, as schooling moves from a local service to a national service, administered in a similar fashion to the NHS, whether the civil service will be any better than local politicians at managing the performance of the school system.

Making all schools academies will be the final nail in local government’s interest in schooling. Once SEND is handled nationally, it will just leave admissions, mainly on-line these days, to be removed from local management.

However, the changes already foreshadowed in the leaks mean that there will be winners and losers. Assuming that H M Treasury might fund some of the SEND changes, there is unlikely to be any new money to support schools to improve.

The present Funding Formula is heavily biased towards pupil numbers. Great when rolls are rising, but bad news for small schools when rolls fall. If the formula is altered to move more money towards schools with significant numbers of pupils not achieving expected standards, where will the cash come from?

Might small rural primary schools with good attendance and excellent results see their funding cut in real terms? If so, what are the consequences likely to be? Trusts will be reluctant to keep schools that cost more to run than they bring in through funding open, and will have no incentive to do so. Afterall, any travel costs will be paid for from the local authority under present arrangements.

I can see the local government organisations saying that if local authorities don’t run schools, then they shouldn’t have to pay any transport costs. Taking £46 million off Oxfordshire County Council’s budget would pay for an awful lot of pothole repairs, not to mention bolstering other services.

For those local authorities currently receiving little funding from central government, removing schooling entirely from local government would be an unexpected bonus. On the other hand, there would, as with the NHS, be no local democratic accountability. Education rarely features during general elections.

One bonus of a national school system is that the government might feel able to create a universal system for secondary schools, some 61 years after Circular 10/65 and on the 50^th Anniversary of the 1976 Education Act.

Without democratic oversigh,t ignoring the 2006 rules about closing small rural primary schools will be much easier. Small one form entry faith schools in urban areas with good results have even less protection. It is worth studying the results for primary schools in Haringey to see the parts of the borough that might be winners and those that might be losers if funding doesn’t increase overall.

As someone that started teaching in Tottenham in 1971, when we had ‘areas of exceptional difficulty’ payments introduced into ‘Education Priority Areas’ it is interesting to see how stark the divide between schools on opposite sides of the railway line north from Kings Cross still remains.

So, will the government close that divide? But will it be at a cost to rural primary schools in Oxfordshire, my current home?

Youth Custody: an update

Posted on February 21, 2026 by John Howson

Following on from my last blog post about an incidence of knife crime in a school in Wales, I thought that I would look again at the latest statistics regarding youth custody for uder18s in England and Wales. Youth justice statistics: 2024 to 2025 – GOV.UK

The table below is abstracted from Table 7.2: Youth custody population, year on year monthly trends (under 18s only), years ending March 2001 to 2025 omitting the data for the years before 2014/15

Financial Year	Apr	Jul	Oct	Jan	Feb	Mar	Average monthly population
2014/15	1,078	1,111	1,033	976	988	1,002	1,031
2015/16	999	1,003	997	921	877	881	946
2016/17	906	857	872	862	863	858	870
2017/18	910	914	898	874	865	922	897
2018/19	938	882	853	806	827	832	856
2019/20	795	811	791	751	770	737	776
2020/21	664	563	535	532	536	516	558
2021/22	493	479	449	426	414	422	447
2022/23	432	457	434	437	467	452	447
2023/24	457	443	429	397	411	410	425
2024/25	427	437	400	406	398	402	412

The decline in custody numbers even during the period between 2-014/15 and 2024/25 is significant, especially taking into account the growth in the number of young people in the older age groups 11-18 during the period under review.

In April 2014, there were 1,078 under-18s in custody. In March 2024 that number had reduced to 402. This was just five above the lowest number in recent history, recorded in January 2024.

For girls, the average number in custody in 2025 was just 10, compared with 42 in 2015. So, the girl convicted of stabbing teachers in Wales really does join a very small number of other girls in custody.

The most worrying number within the 402 is the number on remand. This number stood at 183 in March 2025, some 44% of the total. This compared with just 23% in March 2015. The backlog of trails post-Covid is well known. There is surely a case for fast tracking cases for those under-18s on remand. No child of school-age should be locked up a day longer than necessary. A backlog of trials is not a good enough reason to leave a young person languishing in custody.

Violence against the person offences, offences that would include attempted murder – the offence the girl in Wales was sentenced to custody for – now account for 68% of the primary offences for young people under-18 in custody, compared to just 31% of those in custody in 2015. One should always be wary of using percentages, since the absolute numbers have declined from 317 in March 2014 to 284 in March 2025. It is just that custody for other offences, especially for both domestic burglary and robbery producing custodial sentences have declined even faster than custody for offences of violence against the person.

One concern about the decline in custody is that under-18s in Young Offenders Institutions may now be serving sentences or on remand further from home than in the past, as the number of institutions in use reduces with the reduction in the custody population. This is an issue that policymakers may wish to address. When Cabinet Member in Oxfordshire, I did my best to keep young offenders out of Feltham YOI, but acknowledged that the alternative YOIs were further away., should there have been no alternative to that form of custody.

The use of custody for undr-18s has come a long way since the bleak days of the Blair government and police targets, when August 2006 saw more than 3,000 under-18s in custody. Even with this massive reduction, I think we are less violent society, despite some headlines in the press and on social media.

Violence in schools: what will SEND White Paper say?

Posted on February 20, 2026 by John Howson

There is an interesting interview on the BBC website with one of the teachers stabbed at a school in Wales in 2024 Ammanford stabbing victim Liz Hopkin criticises knife crime plan for schools – BBC News I was sorry to hear of the incident, and would like to express my sympathy for the teachers that were the victims and the students that saw the attack.

What makes the story interesting to me is that the stabbing was by a girl and that she later received a sentence of 15 years in detention. The girl was just 13, and the picture shows a multi-tool knife that might better be described as a ‘bladed instrument’.

Regular readers will know that in January 1977, I was stabbed in the classroom, when I was teaching a Year 11 class, by an intruder aged 15 who had been a former pupil at the school. Sentencing at that time for young people meant he received a six-month detention in custody from a judge at the Old Bailey, after pleading guilty to aggravated burglary. In those days, The Metropolitan Police would not consider a charge such as attempted murder, as the intent to kill was not clear. Presumably, it was in the attacks in Wales? The responsibility of us all | John Howson

Even without all the details, but reading the BBC article, I think that 15 years in detention was a questionable sentence, and I wonder whether it was upheld on appeal? There may be a case for a deterrent sentence, but reading between the lines of the BBC report, this young person clearly had issues identified by the school. That doesn’t make the action acceptable, but does raise questions about the length of sentence, especially when some of those accused of murder have shorter whole-life sentences.

Murders with a sharp instrument were down in2024/25 compared with the previous year.

“New figures from the Office for National Statistics show that police-recorded offences involving a knife or sharp instrument in England and Wales fell by 9% in the year ending September 2025, with 50,430 offences recorded.

This marks the second consecutive annual decrease and brings knife crime levels below those seen before the pandemic.

While this reduction is welcome, knife-enabled offences remain significantly higher than in previous years. Levels are still around 54% higher than a decade ago, and serious violence and robbery continue to account for a large proportion of recorded offences.” Knife Crime Statistics | The Ben Kinsella Trust

We must, as a society continue to do more to reduce violence, and to protect those in the frontline, including teachers. However, I don’t advocate Knife arches for schools, but I do think this is an area within SEND that needs more attention. Whether a reassessment of EHCPs at the end of primary schooling would help is an interesting question, but I would hope that risk assessments already take place. I would be interested to know if the girl in question has an EHCP at the time the crime was committed?

Liz, the victim stated in the BBC interview that

We’re not getting the financial support within schools, within external agencies such as youth services, mental health services, all of those supportive services… all of that is being eroded.”

We do need to ensure that we don’t just focus on SEND in schools, but do ensure the decline in youth services is reversed. It is not good enough just to focus our attention on what happens in schools and colleges.

Music teachers: bring back the bursary

Posted on February 5, 2026 by John Howson

Previous posts in this blog have drawn attention to the removal of the bursary for trainee teachers of music starting courses in September 2026. Music is a subject that is short of qualified teachers. As a result, removing the bursary is not going to increase interest in teaching as a career, especially while the current debate about student loans and repayment issues is raging. As trainee teachers mostly pay fees, this could become an issue for intending teachers.

A previous post has shown that the number of ‘offers’ made in January 2026 to applicants for music teacher preparation courses was down from 91 in January 2025, to just 70 in January 2026 Why Music Teacher Bursaries Matter for Education | John Howson

Now, those teachers recruited for September 2026 courses will enter the teacher labour market in time for appointment as a teacher in September 2027. What is happening in the labour market for teachers now?

An analysis of some 57 vacancies advertised nationally in either the TES or on the DfE job board with a closing date between the 1^st January 2026 and the 2^nd February 2026, by state secondary schools, revealed a total of 57 posts advertised. Most were for ‘teachers of music’, with a few promoted posts either titled as head/director of music or some similar phraseology. By the 5^th February, seven of these posts has already re-appeared with a new closing date: basically, if they were genuine vacancies, then they had not been filled, and were being re-advertised.

Should we be surprised that 14% of vacancies advertised in January were not filled. Perhaps not as it is really too early for most trainees to have commenced their search for a teaching post. However, it also suggests that there is not a pool of ‘returners’ waiting to pounce on a job as soon as it was advertised: at least in some parts of the country.

Perhaps even more disturbing, is that two of the vacancies are for Easter appointment: normally, a rare occurrence. There are also some other vacancies with April 2026 start dates still to reach their closing dates. The presence of these vacancies surprises me, as in the past such advertisements would have been a rare sight.

The data on vacancies, albeit from a small sample so far, suggests a market where some schools are struggling to recruit a teacher of music

This analysis of advertisements doesn’t tell the full picture, as it excludes advertisements by the independent sector schools, special schools and those larger primary schools seeking to appoint a music specialist. Add those in and the number of vacancies already advertised this year is probably in excess of 100.

Then there are the posts for teachers of music in international schools that will take teachers out of schools in England. I am not sure whether anyone is keeping track of those numbers, but with the Labour government sanctioning a State School to open branches in India and The Gulf, in support of UK plc’s export drive, that factor will need to be taken into consideration when surveying the labour market as a whole.

In my view, there is now more than enough evidence to persuade any rational government to reinstate bursary for trainee teachers of music. But, does this government take rational decisions? Answers please, on a postcard or in the comment section.

2010 and the Case for Change: a look back at what was promised

Posted on February 3, 2026 by John Howson

In November 2010, the Conservative Government, and Michael Gove, as Secretary of State for Education, set out their vision for state education in a document entitled ‘The Case for Change’.

The concluding paragraph said:

“Reform should seek to strengthen the recruitment, selection and development of school teachers and leaders. It should strengthen and simplify the curriculum and qualifications, to set high standards, create curriculum coherence and avoid prescription about how to teach. It should increase both autonomy and accountability of schools, and ensure that resources are distributed and used fairy and effectively to incentivise improvement and improve equity.” The Case for Change, DfE, November 2010

Bold claims.

Looking at them in more detail, here are a few thoughts. Other suggestions welcome in the comments

Reform should seek to strengthen the recruitment, selection and development of school teachers and leaders: The move from a higher education led system of ITT to a school-based system failed. There are probably fewer trainees on employment-based routes now, as opposed to SCITTS or higher education routes, than during the Blair government era.

Between 2013 and 2023, the Conservative government presided over the longest period of under-recruitment to ITT, against their own targets for training. This failure to train enough teachers has had a profound effect on schools, ad has not been solved by the present government

should strengthen and simplify the curriculum and qualifications: Decoupling of A/S and A levels in 2015 substantially changed the post-16 landscape. The introduction of the English Baccalaureate weighted the curriculum in favour of traditional academic subjects. The change was never enforced on schools, although it was reported in the data about schools.

set high standards: I am never quite sure what these are. Examination results improved to a point where exam board were required to change grade boundaries, so fewer entrants received the top grades.

avoid prescription about how to teach: Phonics was the prescribed method of teaching reading. The ITT curriculum was made even more prescriptive

increase both autonomy and accountability of schools: Local authority schools had almost complete autonomy, as their budgets were sacrosanct. Academies were fine if stand alone, but as part of a MAT, their autonomy could be seriously reduced, but their accountability may have increased, although there was no accountability for MATs as they weren’t subject to inspection.

ensure that resources are distributed and used fairy and effectively to incentivise improvement and improve equity: The National Pupil Funding Formula was introduced during a period of rising school rolls, with no consideration as to what would happen when rolls started to fall. A study of PTRs by the author shows London schools with generally better staffing ratios than schools in the north of England throughout the period of the conservative government. The Lib Dem Pupil Premium may have help provide extra resources for pupils on Free School Meals, but the staffing crisis often meant that schools with large number so FSM pupils found recruitment of staff an issue.

Were the claims met? In many cases not, and the funding for schools in real terms declined during much the period the Conservative were in government making improvements harder to achieve. The failure to address the staffing crisis was, perhaps, the most important failure of the vision set out in 2010.

Blog to podcast: views welcome

Posted on January 29, 2026 by John Howson

I have used AI to generate a podcast from the text of the previous post about music ITT numbers being unlikely to meet their target. The link ishttps://drive.google.com/file/d/1oBFKJw7ucryRK1hNTvHy2gOIdDcJWaOQ/view?usp=drive_web

Feedback welcome through the comments section. Voices are US because of the platform used, and a free version, so that may jar with some listeners, but not with others.

The podcast is nearly 15 minutes long from a blog of less than 600 words. Does it read too much into the blog? Does it make explicit issues that are implicit in the blog. Genuinely interested in whether it adds to what I wrote or takes it over and makes it something different, and not authored by me.

Thanks for listening

ITT January 2026: lots to ponder

Posted on January 26, 2026 by John Howson

On the face of it, the January 2026 data around postgraduate ITT applications and offers looks good news for the DfE, and for schools Initial teacher training application statistics for courses starting in the 2026 to 2027 academic year – Apply for teacher training – GOV.UK

By the 19^th January 2026, there had been applications from 26,217 candidates. This compared with 20,771 at the January data point in 2025. Candidates applying for primary courses were up from 7,283 to 8,676: a modest increase.

For secondary courses candidate numbers this year were, 19,232 compared with 14,862 at last January’s datapoint. That looks like very good news, perhaps worthy of a Statement in Parliament.

However, it is worth delving a bit deeper into the data before putting out too much bunting. Applications from the ‘Rest of the world’ account for 8,353 of this January’s total, compared with 5,088 last January. That means that this group now account for a whopping 30% of candidates. This compares with 23% of candidates from this grouping in last January’s data.

Of even more concern, is that the numbers of candidates from the United Kingdom haven’t kept pace with the growth in overseas applicants. The growth in applicant numbers from the North of England has been especially weak; only 90 more compared with last year from the Yorkshire and The Humber region, and only 71 more from the North East.

Admittedly, the North West has seen an increase of over 400 applicants, and London, over 500 more. However, the South East only has around 140 more applicants than last year. This is around 7% more, but this percentage pales into insignificance compared to the more than two thirds increase in applicants for ‘the Rest of the World’.

The dominance of the ‘Rest of the World’ applicants as a share of the total makes commenting upon the data challenging. Normally at this time of year, I might be happy to predict those subjects likely to miss their ITT targets, based upon more than 30 years of data collection. Not knowing how the ‘Rest of the world’ applicants are spread both between primary and secondary phase, and within secondary phase by subjects adds a unique challenge to any predictions this year.

However, based upon ‘offers’, and the outcome of the 2025 ITT census, and assuming no significant change in the pattern of applications over the rest of the cycle – such as a significant weakening of the demand for new graduates or another pandemic – I am happy to make some suggestions for the outcomes based upon current trends.

I expect that Religious Education, Modern Foreign Languages, Music, Classics and the ‘other’ group will all miss their target this year.

I am not sure about biology, where offers are down by 194, but the subject reached 151% of target last year. I am also, as yet, uncertain about Geography, where offers are down, but the subject surpassed its target last year.

Despite the increase in offers, I still don’t expect Physics, Design & Technology, Business Studies and Drama to meet their targets, although on this showing they might do better than last year, assuming those with offers actually turn up when courses start: always a worry this early in the recruitment round.

On the current data, Physical Education and History, as ever, will surpass their targets. Mathematics, computing and Chemistry, should also meet their targets. I am unsure about English, where offers are down, and the subject only just beat its target in 2025.

Overall, I think that the DfE needs to consider how the statistics are presented, if a nearly a third of applicants might need a visa to train. How does this fit in with other government policies? Perhaps we can set up training courses overseas, so that these new would-be teachers from the ‘Rest of the world’ can work in the new State Schools to be established as a part of the DfE’s export drive, announced last week.

John Howson

Education and the numbers that affect what happens

Tag Archives: politics