Earlier today the DfE published their Annual Census of ITT trainees. Published each December, the census identifies the numbers on the various teacher perpetration routes and some background information about their gender, ethnicity, degree class and routes into teaching. Initial teacher training: trainee number census 2025 to 2026 – GOV.UK
The census provides a helpful indication to schools about the labour market for the following September recruitment. In this case, September 2026.
In recent years, apart for during 2020 and the response to the pandemic, trainees number in many secondary subjects have been lees than the DfE predicted numbers needed to fill vacancies. In the primary sector, falling rolls and erratic recruitment numbers have meant there has been less of a coherent pattern about the balance between supply and likely demand for teachers. Of course, much depends upon assumptions about the turnover in the labour market, and the behaviour of possible ‘returners’ to teaching when reviewing recruitment patterns.
So, what of the current 2025/26 cohort?
| subject | 2024/25 | 2025/26 |
| Percentage of Target at census date | % | % |
| Physical Education | 213 | 202 |
| Biology | 116 | 151 |
| Art & Design | 64 | 128 |
| Primary | 88 | 126 |
| History | 116 | 125 |
| Chemistry | 62 | 118 |
| Mathematics | 72 | 113 |
| Geography | 91 | 111 |
| English | 99 | 106 |
| Modern Languages | 44 | 93 |
| All Secondary | 61 | 88 |
| Computing | 37 | 80 |
| Physics | 30 | 77 |
| Classics | 245 | 73 |
| Design & Technology | 40 | 70 |
| Music | 40 | 65 |
| Religious Education | 79 | 62 |
| Drama | 47 | 41 |
| Business Studies | 15 | 30 |
| Other | 15 | 14 |
The government can be pleased with some of the best recruitment levels to their targets in almost a generation – covid years excepted – but challenges still remain. Nine secondary subjects didn’t meet their target number, with business studies still recruiting poorly to teaching, along with drama and religious studies where the target was missed by a larger percentage than last year.
On the good news side, mathematic exceeded its target for the first time in a long while, and the increase to 77% of target in physics teachers is very welcome news.
There will be too many primary school teachers looking for jobs come September, and although course providers will be happy to have recruited 202% of the target for physical education trainees, this over-recruitment does beg the question as to whether recruitment controls should be once again considered as a deterrent to such significant over-recruitment?
Taken with the news, highlighted in my previous post, about attitudes to pay by serving teachers, the government can probably stop worrying abut teacher recruitment for the first time since 2012.
However, all is not good news, if the Curriculum Review is to be implemented in full, attention to recruitment in some subjects will be needed. In that respect, as already suggested by this blog in a previous post, removing the bursary from music seems like a daft idea. Yes, there was a 25% increase in outcome against target, but that still left a third of places unfilled. Music departments in schools are often small and cannot be easily covered by non-specialists, such as the spare PE teachers. Time to think again on the basis of these figures.