STRB misses the point?

There is a lot of good data in the STRB Report published yesterday. School Teachers’ Review Body 32nd report: 2022 – GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)

Sadly, most of it, as far as the teacher labour market is concerned, is based upon data collected by the DfE in November 2020 in the School Workforce Census, and thus relates to the labour market cycle of two years ago. Even if, when compiling the Report, the data from the November 2021 Census was used that was still from a previous labour market. As regular readers of this blog will know, the 2021-22 labour market for teachers has been anything other than normal in terms of demand for teachers.

The STRB has at least been able to use the ITT Census of 2021 that provided the data about the supply of new teachers for September 2022. Readers will find little in the STRB Report that hasn’t already been covered in this blog in relation to that data.

However, the Table on pages 49 and 50 of the STRB Report tells the story of this labour market in two simple charts regarding ITT recruitment; with history, PE and Art being the only secondary subjects where the supply of new entrants has been anything like at the level required to meet demand.

Interestingly, TeachVac today added art as a subject with a ‘red’ warning of shortages possible anywhere in England for January 2023 appointments. That just leaves PE and history as the two subjects where supply is still not yet at a level for a ‘red’ warning. PE might reach that level in the autumn: history, even with a contribution to humanities posts, almost certainly won’t. In view of the fact that almost double the number of trainees was recruited compared with the TSM figure that isn’t really a surprise. There is little problem with the primary sector labour market across most of the country.

The STRB Report is an interesting analysis of how the labour market responded to the sudden appearance of the pandemic just at the time when vacancies for September appointments were reaching their peak. Essentially, the market seems to have paused in 2021, and, as we know in 2022, there has been this surge of vacancies. As the end of term approaches, TeachVac has recorded not far short of 80,000 teaching vacancies across England so far in 2022, and more than 95,000 across the school-year as a whole.

The STRB has some interesting observations about leadership vacances, and the problems of recording trends when some posts in MATs are ‘out of scope’ to use the STRB terminology. However, as TeachVac has reported, there does not seem to have been any mass exodus of school leaders. This is despite the massive burdens placed on headteachers and other school leaders as a result of the pandemic, and the need to keep schools open at all times.

On pay, make of the Report what you will. I personally doubt that their recommendations for 2023/24 will last the test of time, especially if inflation continues to remain close to current levels and interest rates increase. With little new cash around for schools, it might be worth looking at the history books for how schools coped with the economic crisis of the late 1970s and early 1980s to see what might happen over the next few years. Although, back then, there was no spending on computers and other IT equipment.  

End of pupil boom in sight

The recent pupil projections issued by the DfE  National pupil projections: July 2022 – GOV.UK (www.gov.uk) show that the secondary school population is likely to peak at around school years 2024 or 2025 for England as whole. For some part of the country, notably the South East the date might be later, depending upon internal migration.

The DfE suggest that primary pupil number, including nursery pupils, will fall between 2022 and 2023, and by 2030 there will be 680,000 fewer pupils in the sector than in 2022; a reduction of approaching 15%. Even in the secondary sector, there is projected to be a small decline overall during the period 2022 to 2030.

Looking at these numbers, it is possible to see why there needs to be some consideration of the number of ITT places in the remainder of the decade. The secondary pupil numbers will decline through much of the second half of the 2020s and even though the primary sector fall is reducing by 2030, and the teaching workforce will likely be older than at present, demand for teachers under normal circumstance should be less than at present. Of course, what is normal and how any change in ITT provision should be managed are policy questions open to debate and alternative views.

But, with, it would seem in the present economic circumstances and the demands of the NHS, government funding unlikely to support any overall improvement in pupil teacher ratios and reductions in class sizes, the outcome is a need for fewer teachers unless some other aspect of the model changes. Factor in a low tax, high wage economy and the demand for teachers looks even less likely to continue at present levels.

The two unknowns are, firstly, whether an economic slowdown drives more teachers to stay put and returner numbers to increase and secondly, whether demand for graduates and for teachers from schools around the world will reduce the teacher workforce in England faster than expected just from the decline in the pupil population.

The DfE notes that the projection model published in 2021 estimated a school population of 7,269,000 in 2032, so the updated model shows a decrease of 354,000 on the total at the end of its projection period. The difference is primarily due to notably lower birth projections in the mid-2020 ONS national population projections, used for the first time in this set of pupil projections, which are the main drivers of the pupil population.

Next year the data from the 2021 Census will be fed into the ONS models, and, as a result, there might be some more significant changes to the outcome totals from 2028 onwards when the data are next published in July 2023. However, it seems unlikely that the changes resulting from the 2021 census will result in the demand for teachers increasing later in the decade. I suspect that there will once again be some regional analysis of school population trends that is missing this year.

Redcoats in the classroom

Redcoats in the classroom

by the late Howard R. Clarke

Published by Helion & Company

ISBN 978-1—91266-47-2

Part of the series From Musket to Maxim 1815-1914 edited by Dr Christopher Brice

The army and the first state funded schools in England. This review of the late Howard Clarke’s book I undertook for the Book Review section of the Journal of the Royal Army Historical Society’s summer edition of their journal. However, I thought that it might also interest some in education, not least for the light that it shines on when the State first started paying for the education of some children.

The best books are those that arise from the author’s love of the subject. Howard Clarke’s passion for education shines through what was sadly his last work. He did not live to see its publication.

Redcoats in the Classroom’, published by Helion & co, stands as a monument both to Clarke and to the pioneering work of the army in creating elementary education in that period of the nineteenth century when the State in Britain clung to the notion, as J S Mill put it in his book, On Liberty, that the State’s role was to see it citizens are educated and not to educate them itself.

The army took up the challenge of schooling long before Gladstone’s government finally introduced a defining role for the State in elementary education, with Forster’s 1870 Elementary Education Act. Indeed, many familiar with the history of the battle for universal elementary education in England, and the role of the State, will have to reassess their views following the publication of this book.

The 1830s no longer can be viewed as the beginning of State funding for schooling. The Army Order of 1811, and the associated vote of funds in 1812, predates the generally accepted date for the first funding for elementary education by a good two decades, albeit for a restricted group of children in society.

Although the schooling introduced by the army during the Napoleonic War with France was rudimentary, it was revolutionary in its own way by including not only the basic schooling for boys, but also for girls. These weren’t the Redcoats of the title, but their offspring. The Redcoats were for the most part the ‘schoolmaster sergeants’ employed to teach them.

Some initiatives established during a period of warfare don’t survive the cutbacks of the subsequent peace. Schooling in the army didn’t suffer that fate after 1815, although after its early start Clarke notes little innovation until well after Queen Victoria came to the throne and the beginnings of a scheme for the wider state involvement in schooling.

This review isn’t the place to discuss the religious question, and how it affected the development of schooling in England, but even the army wasn’t able to avoid the competing claims of Bell and Lancaster with their links to either the Established Church or to nonconformism. Scotland and Ireland, and the regiments and militia raised in those countries, had other issues in this respect.

The book is stronger on the history of education in Ireland than in Scotland, but both probably had a clearer local identity than was the case for many of the regiments of the army raised in England before the reforms of the late nineteenth century finally tied regiments to specific geographical areas.  The pragmatic solution of allowing children to miss the prayers of the first half hour of the morning was just one of the army’s decisions that has influenced education in England up to the present day.

The judgement in Walden v Bailey, curiously not included in the index, was important in shaping the balance between the education of children and the work of schoolmasters with soldiers. Had the judgment been in the other direction, I am sure that the education of children of serving soldiers might have been much less important than was the case until the end of the century and the recognition that army children in Britain could use the ‘state’ system but that there was still a responsibility to educate the children of troops serving overseas: as is still the case.

Readers will find this book heavy going in places. There is a complete absence of sub-headings that might have helped in some of the chapters, especially where the relationship of the educators to their work with soldiers as opposed to children is concerned. In passing, it is worth noting that a large proportion of those soldiers never wore the red coat used in the title.

Whether as a result of either the author’s untimely death or a cavalier attitude to publication standards doesn’t matter, but the poor attention to detail in the book goes beyond mere irritation into making it something of a challenge to read. The collection of the tables into an appendix would have prevented the mis-alignment between table numbers quoted in the text and the table actually under consideration, as occurred on page 294. However, more will be needed in any reprint to eliminate the myriad of missing spaces, confusion between the use of upper and lower case in the description of terms such as commissioners and other typological issues that occur throughout the book.

Despite these shortcomings, this book reveals the dedicated work of the author in researching many records of individual regiments, especially in the early nineteenth century when the schooling in the army was in its infancy. The latter part of the book relies more heavily on national reports and as such is more comprehensive, but less detailed at the regimental level, especially as garrison schools became the norm in larger centres in England.

The book is arranged chronologically, and this means that for each time period schooling in England, in India, and elsewhere in the world where there were troops garrisoned, are merged together, except for one chapter on India. A geographical approach might have made the book easier for the reader to follow, especially since the frequent movement of units caused great problem for the education of some children. Indeed, that is still an issue today, when soldiers are posted during the school-year.

The army, out of necessity not enlightenment, achieved in 1812 what parliament had failed to do during the previous decade, ensure state involvement in the education of at least some of its citizens. In uncovering this fascinating, but hidden area of early schooling, Clarke has created a book for both those interested in military history and those interested in the history of education in England.

Morale matters

Earlier this week the NHS as an organisation were awarded the Nation’s highest civilian award; The George Cross. This was in recognition of the huge efforts staff made, and indeed continue to make, during the on-going covid pandemic and the direct and indirect effects upon all the staff working within the service created as a result of the pandemic.

The award, created in 1940, sits at the top of the UK honour’s system joint with the military Victoria Cross and is the highest civilian gallantry award. It is given for acts of the greatest heroism or of the most conspicuous courage in circumstances of extreme danger.

NHS England chief executive Amanda Pritchard and May Parsons, a matron for respiratory services who delivered the world’s first Covid vaccination in December 2020, were presented with the award by the Queen at Windsor Castle.

This is only the third time the George Cross has been awarded to a collective body, rather than an individual. It was previously awarded to Malta in 1942 and to the Royal Ulster Constabulary in 1999.

Should some sort of collective thank you is also due to our schools, and those that staff them, for remaining open throughout the pandemic. A signed certificate for every school thanking everyone for their ‘service’ during the pandemic and signed by the Monarch as Head of State might not come amiss.

Using the Platinum Jubilee to create some Regis Professors of Education to celebrate both the 150th Anniversary, in 2020, of 150 years of State Elementary Education and its successive expansion into the present system, and in 2022, the 210th anniversary of state funding of the education of children for the first time would have been a nice gesture. Yes, I know that they were children of soldiers that were funded, and it was The War Office that paid for the education in 1812, but it was still the start of state schooling.

The 150th anniversary of the 1870 Education Act, as a milestone, disappeared in horrors of the pandemic, but should not be forgotten. The ‘thank a teacher’ movement has raised the profile of teachers at the individual school level, and since the Blair government more school leaders, but not classroom teachers, have received awards in the Birthday or New Years’ Honours lists. But, do we need to do more to raise the morale of the profession?

As an employer, I know the importance of motivation, and of saying thank you for working through trying times. I can award a bonus, something not really available to the public sector as a whole, especially in this time of fiscal challenge.

Morale, workload and pay are the three key areas that support the successful staffing of any organisation. Managing morale is the cheapest and most overlooked, possibly because it is difficult for politicians to seem genuine. But, missing key anniversaries is a sign that morale isn’t taken seriously enough amongst senior decision-makers and those that shape the policy of our education system.

With a week to go to the end of term, there’s still time to wish everyone the best for the summer, and to say a Thank you to everyone for their dedication to the cause of education. So, from me, at least, a great big THANK YOU to everyone in our education system.

That was The Week That was…

This was an interesting week to have been away from one’s desk. Three Secretaries of State in a week! That’s one for the record books, along with so much else that has happened in Westminster politics during the past seven days.

How much will education feature in the debate over the selection of the next Prime Minister? Will some education journalist ask the obvious questions such as:

If you are going to cut taxes, what will happen to funding for schools, especially in the period before inflation is brought under control?

What are you going to do about the present teacher shortage?

Will you review the way that the apprenticeship Levy operates so that it isn’t a tax on small primary schools?

How important is helping young people recover from the effects of the covid pandemic and what would you do to help boost their mental health?

Do you believe in local democratic control of schooling?

What are you plans for levelling up as it affects the Roma and Traveller communities across England?

Was the EBacc a mistake?

How important do you see the youth Service and other out of school activities?

Will you offer Free School Meals to all primary school children for free?

I am sure that readers can add to this list with this with their own priorities. I am also pretty certain that most of these questions won’t be asked of the candidates.

Education, and schooling in particular doesn’t often feature in either leadership or general election campaigns. It is possible that there could be a debate about selective education, started by one of the candidates, as it is a topic that appeals to the older generation of Tory voters even if most younger Tories have never experienced it, unless they come from parts of the Home Counties. Faced with rising private school fees, some Tories might also see selective state education as a tax cut for parents no longer needing to pay school fees.

And on fees, where will the candidates stand on higher education, university fees and student numbers? It will be especially interesting to see what the Chancellor says as a former Education Secretary. 

Talking of former Education Secretary’s, I wonder whether there was time to take the Ministerial photograph of Michelle Donelan to hang on the wall at Sanctuary Buildings or whether they will use one taken in her previous Ministerial role in the department.

Finally, there is the future of the Schools Bill to consider. This mess of a piece of draft legislation was mauled in the House of Lords and is being reconsidered. The oversight and regulation of academy trusts is an important addition to the legislation on schooling, but I hope that the new team will also listen to their councillors about the importance of both place in the governance of schooling and the need for democratic local accountability.  Local Authorities will not accept the need for responsibility without involvement in decision-making and that matters for admissions, pupil place planning and SEND.

End ITT deserts

Whatever else the re-accreditation process being undertaken by the DfE across the ITT sector achieves, it must end the ITT deserts so that schools across England can rely upon a flow of new entrants into teaching across the whole gamut of secondary curriculum subjects and the differential needs of the primary sector. Attention should also be paid to the needs of the special school sector and pupils with SEND in mainstream schools. The lack of a genuine plan for the training of teachers for pupils with special needs is a scandal than needs highlighting.

However, the needs of the secondary school sector are just as pressing. TeachVac, as well as the DfE and even the tes have built up extensive databases of teacher vacancies that should inform the discussions about where provision needs to be located.

Ever since the cull of providers in the late 1970s and early 1980s there has been a policy of rewarding quality of provision regardless of where that provision was located. The thinking presumably was that ‘trainees will move to the jobs’, so location of the preparation is less important than quality of the preparation. There may also have been a thought that providers of training could partner with schools in localities where there was no training provider.

With the coming of school-based training and employment-based routes, there might also have been an assumption that schools finding recruitment challenging could enter the market and train their own teachers. This produced a confused approach that tried to marry up a top-down model of place allocations based on quality with a ‘bottom-up’ approach on need for teachers that led to a disorganised picture.

In 2013, Chris Waterman joined me in producing a book of maps showing the locations of the various providers, and the routes into teaching that they offered. I have always been surprised that the DfE website on teaching as a career doesn’t offer such a map alongside its rudimentary search facility that only indicates whether a provider has places for a specific course in a manner unhelpful to applicants. The DfE did better in 2013 with its original School Direct application process.

The re-accreditation process provides an opportunity to look in detail at the national picture based upon actual needs for teachers that has been lost since the decision in the 1960s to take teacher preparation away from the employing local authorities and faith communities and transfer preparation into higher education. Wise though that move was in many respects, once the DfE started to let a thousand flowers bloom in the teacher preparation market this ended any national coherence around the provision in relation to the needs of schools.

The situation has become worse in areas where state schools are competing with private schools for the same pool of teachers and trainees. Turning a blind eye to that fact doesn’t help state schools, especially when there is a shortage of new entrants into the profession.

Whatever else the re-accreditation process achieves, if it doesn’t take into account the needs of schools across the whole of England for a reliable flow of new entrants across all subjects and phases it will have failed in what should be one if its major purposes.

Their Lordships 1: DfE 0

If the Schools Bill brought before parliaments soon after the state Opening this spring was a football match that might be the current score line. Today the Minister, Baroness Barron, The Under-Secretary of State for Education has written to all members of the House of Lords announcing major changes to the Bill as first presented to parliament. as a copy has bene placed in the House of Lords library, I feel able to comment on its contents.

 The government still wants an all-academy system, but more of that later. The Minister has said that

The Government has carefully considered the views of the House and as such intends to remove Clauses 1-4 and Schedule 1 from the Bill. Noting that amendments have been tabled to oppose that Clauses 1,3 and 4 stand part of the Bill, the Government intends to support the removal of these Clauses, and table further amendments to remove Clause 2 and Schedule 1, which also form part of the measure.

There have also been concerns on the Academy Trust Termination and Intervention powers (Clauses 5-18 and Schedule 2). This concern is reflected in the amendments that have been tabled to oppose that these Clauses and Schedule 2 stand part of the Bill. I can confirm that is also the Government’s intention to support these amendments.

The Government will support these amendments at this stage and bring forward revised proposals in the House of Commons.  Extract from letter to Members of The House of Lords

I am not sure when I can last recall such a comprehensive review by a government on a Bill of this nature.

The survival of the Bill now depends upon the wider political scene. If there were to be an autumn general election, called by the Prime Minister as a result of a combination of changes in the Labour Party and the Prime Minister taking the view that a general election was less of a problem than a Standards Committee Inquiry, and any consequences resulting from such an inquiry, then the return of the Bill might depend upon whether there was sufficient parliamentary time in what is known as the ‘wash-up’ to see the Bill through all its stages before parliament was prorogued.

Of course, if there isn’t a general election there will be plenty of time to create an all-academy school system with no local democratic scrutiny of schooling.  Presumably, so long as the faith communities can be dealt with to their satisfaction, no other groups will matter.

However, it is to be hoped that the importance of ‘place’ in the delivery of an education system will be recognised. Whether local authorities will want to put the same effort into managing admissions and transport under the new arrangements will be an interesting set of questions.

More teachers take maternity leave

TeachVac records the reason for vacancies as part of its intelligence gathering about the labour market for teachers in England. Each vacancy is classified and placed into one of three categories: permanent position; temporary post or maternity leave vacancy. Where the school doesn’t provide a reason for their vacancy, the default is that the vacancy is for a permanent position.

Regular readers, and those that study the labour market for teachers in any detail, will know that 2022 has been an exceptional year for vacancies, with record numbers being recorded so far this year and approaching 100,000 vacancies across the whole of the 2021-2022 school year.

The lack of any unique job identification number means that it is impossible to know the percentage of re-advertisements in the overall total of recorded vacancies. However, so great has been the increase, even over pre-covid vacancy levels that it must be inferred that there are more vacancies than normal.

To what extent has any growth in teachers taking maternity leave played a part in the increase in vacancies? There has been an increase, as the data in the table below reveals. Between January and June 2021 TeachVac recorded 4,386 vacancies where the cause of the vacancy was as a result of a teacher taking maternity leave. In the same period in 2022, the number had increased to 5,627 by 28th June. Now, cognisant of my comment above, it is entirely possible that some of the growth in maternity leave vacancies is the result of re-advertisements, but it seems unlikely that re-advertisements account for the whole of the growth in such vacancies.

Maternity leave vacancies recorded by TeachVac

Primary SectorSecondary SectorTotalDate range
Maternity256430635627Jan-June 2022
Maternity202423624386Jan-June 2021
Maternity353941567695All Year 2021
Source TeachVac

Now it is also possible that more schools are citing the fact that their vacancy is due to a teacher taking maternity leave. The alternative might be to advertise for a temporary post not citing the reason why the vacancy was temporary.

January to June 2022
 Primary SectorSecondary SectorTotal
Maternity256430635627
Permanent159254878764712
Temporary437122496620
Total228605409976959
Maternity11%6%7%
January to June 2021
Primary SectorSecondary SectorTotal
Maternity202423624386
Permanent100942412834222
Temporary378718385625
Total159052832844233
Maternity13%8%10%
2021 – All year
Primary SectorSecondary Sectortotal
Maternity353941567695
Permanent140793337047449
Temporary593232079139
Total235504073364283
Maternity15%10%12%
Source: TeachVac data

However, there has been a significant growth in the number of permanent vacancies recorded this year, up from 34,222 to 64,712 for the January to June period between those months in 2021 and those moths this year in 2022. Again, it isn’t possible to know the extent that re-advertisements are included in the increase. There will almost certainly be more re-advertisement than in a year when the supply of new teachers entering the market was greater than it has been this year, but I doubt re-advertisements are the main cause of the increase.

Keeping in touch with teachers taking maternity leave to encourage them to return, either part-time or to tutoring or in other type of work within the school would be a cost-effective means of not losing touch with a vital resource. The National Audit Office some years ago now commented that retention was much ore cost-effective than recruitment. Perhaps it is time the DfE dusted off a national ‘keep in tough’ scheme?

More bad news on ITT

Yesterday, The DfE published the ITT applications and acceptances data for the period up to the 20th June thus year. In this post I look at the acceptances for June 2020 compared with those in June 2019, the last year before the pandemic struck. By 2019, there was already concern about the decline in interest in teaching as a career. The pandemic to some extent reversed that trend and provided teaching with a recruitment boost. But, was it a false dawn?

The following table compares the June 2019 UCAS data on ‘offer’ with that from the DfE data issued yesterday.

Subjects2018/192021/22Difference in offers
Biology1430524-906
Science24301531-899
English22901418-872
Geography1010519-491
History11801000-180
Computing410290-120
Religious Education400304-96
Design and technology450355-95
Mathematics15901511-79
Music240228-12
Chemistry600597-3
Physics4004000
Business studies15019747
Art and design41046858
Physical education12901469179
Dramana334na
Classicsna64na
Otherna429na
Sources: UCAS and DfE

On this basis, as I warned in my previous post, 2023 will be another challenging labour market for schools. Only in the same three subjects where there is least concern in 2022: history, art and physical education, is there likely to be anywhere near sufficient supply of new entrants unless there is a sudden rush over the next two months that frankly looks unlikely at this point in time.

The science number is based on an aggregation of totals from the three sciences and doesn’t represent whole new category of potential trainees. The most significant declines in the number of offers since 2019 are English, geography and computing. However, at these levels most subjects won’t reach their Teacher Supply Model number unless there is a significant input from other sources such as Teach First. I am not sure how likely that will be as they don’t publish their data in the same way to the general public whatever they share with the DfE. There are currently more ‘offers’ in mathematics than there are in English and at this level, English departments may struggle with recruitment in 2023.

Overall, there have been 32,609 applicants by 20th June. This compares with 37,790 applicants domiciled in England that had applied through UCAS by June 21st 2021. There are 2,229 ‘recruited’ applicants in 2022, when there were ,5830 ‘placed’ according to the UCAS data in June 2021. The conditional placed or conditions pending groups are 18,363 this year compared with 23,620 in June 2021. Many of these will be awaiting degree results, and this number will reduce next month just as the ‘recruited’ number’ will show an increase. Interestingly, the number that have declined an offer this year is shown as 760 compared with 370 in June last year. Another straw in the wind of how challenging recruitment has become.  However, withdrawn applications are down from 1,520 to just 1,002.

There must be a concern that applications – as opposed to applicants – in the South East provider region are down from 14,390 to 10,795. This is the region with the largest proportion of vacancies each year, and where the private sector vies most strongly with state schools of all types for teachers. An analysis of acceptances by subject by provider region would help schools identify the seriousness of this decline, and whether it is in both the primary and secondary sectors?

Applications overall are down for both sectors, with primary down from 48,520 last June to 39,712 this June, and secondary down from 61,480 to 48,047, a very worrying reduction. School Direct salaried continues to be replaced by the PG apprenticeship route that has had 3,864 applications this year compared to 5,315 for the School Direct Salaried route. However, similar numbers have been placed on both routes, at around 500 trainees on each route.

With some schools ceasing recruitment as term comes towards its end, it will be up to higher education to recruit most of the additional applicants over the summer. Will those providers threatened with not being re-accredited show the same appetite to recruit as they would if their future was secure in teacher education? The DfE must surely how so as every extra trainee is a welcome bonus for schools in 2023 struggling to recruit teachers.

Start worrying about September 2023

While I have been waiting for the DfE to produce the June data about admissions and acceptances to ITT postgraduate courses, I thought that I would have another look at the percentage of courses no longer showing as offering vacancies as listed on the DfE website.

In passing, UCAS used to publish a calendar of dates when the monthly data would be published and generally stuck to that regime. There seems to me to be little logic to the reporting by the DfE this year.  

Anyway, what are the portents for September, and thus for the recruitment round that will provide staff for schools in the 2023/24 school year? Sadly, they don’t seem great.

The data I used matches ‘courses with vacancies’ against the ‘all courses’ number. Now, of course, a course may only have one vacancy or many, and the data doesn’t show that information, useful although it might be to applicants trying to decide where to apply to at this point in the cycle. I assume that those advising applicants are privy in order to use the data to help maximise successful outcomes.

Below in the table is the percentage of courses with vacancies ranked from least to most.

Subject24th June vacanciesall courses% with vacancies
Psychology2810626%
Latin51631%
Social Sciences3611531%
Classics71839%
Heath & Soc Care163644%
Comms & Media Studies183946%
Physical education26256347%
Dance357050%
Business studies17027263%
History40664263%
Drama22735065%
Economics253866%
Computing37356166%
Art and design32547968%
Music26638769%
Primary1200171670%
Citizenship142070%
Design and technology35049471%
English57580871%
Modern Foreign Languages69196672%
Religious Education34748072%
Mathematics63087172%
Chemistry56176673%
Geography50167175%
Biology55173375%
Physics60779676%
Science212584%
Source: DfE website

Only ten subjects have more than a third of courses currently ‘closed’ with no vacancies. The assumption must be that these courses are ‘full’ although there might be other reasons for the course not shown as currently offering vacancies.

Leaving out the small number of ‘science’ courses, there are three subjects, biology, physics and geography with more than three quarters of courses still returned as with vacancies. Even the primary sector has 70% of courses with at least one vacancy.

Such high levels of courses can be seen as a ‘good thing’ if there happens to be a flood of late applications. However, it is possible some school-based providers will no longer recruit after the end of term, and are thus not taking applications after the end of next week.

If the ability and willingness to recruit throughout the summer is not a criterion for re-accreditation then it ought to be, otherwise the government risks shooting itself in the foot by missing out on late applicants. There are those that don’t decide to become a teacher until August, and want to start in September.

As Teach First has started recruiting again, for this summer, it looks fair to say that that data are pointing to 2023/24 being another challenging year for schools needing to recruit staff. Currently, the average number of vacancies for schools in London and the South East stands at 10 per school.

TeachVac’s Premium Service helps schools connect with potential applicants for a fixed annual price of a maximum of £1,000 or £20 per week. With TeachVac’s growing list of teachers and trainees the service offers excellent value for money.