About John Howson

Former county councillor in Oxfordshire and sometime cabinet member for children services, education and youth.

Is VAT affecting private school results?

Posted on August 22, 2025 by John Howson

It might well be a bit of a stretch to believe that the effect of VAT being imposed on private schools in January 2025 is responsible for the decline in the percentage of pupils in such centres awarded Level 7 or above in GCSE level qualifications in some subjects this year, but, interestingly, there has been a decline in the percentages awarded Level 7 or above in some key subjects in such centres.

The subjects include: biology; business studies; chemistry; citizenship; drama; England; English Literature; mathematics; physics and social sciences. Most of the falls are probably not significant, being only a matter of a decimal point or two, and thus within the expected margin of error. Indeed, in most subjects the percentage gaining level 7 of above is still higher than in 2019, before covid struck.

This year, although physics dropped from 60.8% in 2024 to 60.0% in 2025, and mathematics from 33.5% to 32.0% – subject where percentages in the public sector schools generally increased, although they still remain well below the percentages achieved by the private sector centres. In both subjects the private sector percentage was above the 2019 outcome. In mathematics, it might be that 2024 was ‘a good year’, and 2025 is a more normal outcome?

Now, another possible explanation for the drop in percentages, if it isn’t disappearing pupils, might be that the teacher supply crisis is finally impacting private sector schools in some subjects where recruitment is challenging. This might possibly be responsible for the declines in physics and mathematics percentages.

Another possibility is a change in entry policies that allowed marginal candidates to enter, but considering the financial consequences of widening entry at a time when private sector schools might be expected to be looking for cost saving measures, this reason seems unlikely.

Since many private schools are day schools, as a result it would be interesting to know to what extent parents have invested additional funds in private tutoring and Easter revision classes for pupils where there were concerns about outcomes after any ‘mock’ examinations. However, I suspect such investment would be more likely be at ‘A’ level than at GCSE, except perhaps in English and mathematics.

There is a useful table that allows comparison between public and private sector institutions Outcomes by centre type

The outcomes for physics at Level 4 or above are interesting

Grade 4 and above in Physics GCSE %	2019	2023	2024	2025	diff 2023 to 2025
All State Funded	91.4	90.2	90.4	91.0	0.80
Independent schools inc CTCs	96.8	96.2	96.4	95.9	-0.30

The trend in state funded institutions has been upward, despite any possible issues with staffing, whereas the picture is more mixed in the private sector. However, neither percentage take account of who is allowed to take the subject and the prevalence of combined science in many state-funded schools rather than the separate sciences.

Perhaps even more interesting is how different state schools perform with different groups and the extent to which MATs can achieve good results across the Trust.

Sort out physics teacher preparation courses

Posted on August 21, 2025 by John Howson

The next couple of years likely to see the best recruitment levels to physics ITT courses for more than a decade. As a result, there might be a risk that everyone concerned with teacher preparation breathes a huge sigh of relief, and put the problem of the shortage of teachers of physics in the ‘job done’ bin. In my view that would be a big mistake.

Now is the time for someone, perhaps the Institute of Physics, NfER, Nuffield or Gatsby to consider a research project that looks at the pipeline of physics teachers from school to school, and notably from university to teaching. Do different courses produce different numbers of teachers of physics that stay in the profession, and become the leaders of tomorrow or just provide short-term additions to the teaching stock. How important is a middle leadership cadre?

Mapping these outcomes both geographically and as between public and private schools, and within the public sector as between 11-16; 11-18 and post-16 institutions might create an understanding that could then lead to a debate about how every child could access high quality physics teaching on a regular basis up to Level 3.

With the improvement in mathematics in schools over recent years, there should be the possibility of increasing interest in physics, especially amongst girls. The percentage of girls taking physics is still lamentably low. This is despite 30 years of programmes such as WISE. How far has the lack of management of the scare resource that is teachers of physics held back the encouragement of more girls to study the subject?

Teaching has always looked to be a profession where there is basic pay equality. That’s fine when there aren’t shortages, but there have always been incentives and rewards from golden hellos to additional payments for working in challenging schools. What incentives work to keep teachers of physics in the profession. Is it non-pay matters, such as not having to teach ‘all sciences’ or some mathematics that is as important as pay?

If gender is an issue, what about ethnicity: of both teachers and those that study physics at school? Then there is the issue of what percentage of pupils on free school meals have access to high quality physics teaching? Is it different from those small numbers on free school melas in schools in affluent areas, compared with schools where a large percentage of pupils are on free school meals. In the latter schools, attracting a physics teacher means access for some pupils. In the former, even if there is a physics teacher do the pupils on free school meals have access to physics?

And what about pupils with SEND? What is their access to physics teaching like?

Physics could be a template for other subjects to ask the questions about, ‘what can we do to ensure we have the best system for preparing teachers, recruiting them into schools, and ensuring that they stay in the profession.’ The alternative is that we could carry on as before, and rely upon market forces to provide the Nobel Prize winner of the future.

Numbers granted teaching awards

Posted on August 20, 2025 by John Howson

In a previous post I looked at the prohibition from teaching work of the Teaching Regulation Agency (TRA). However, that is only a part of the work of the Agency. The other main task is to maintain the register of qualified teachers, and to grant admittance to the register. There are two main routes to registration. Obtaining QTS in England via one of the several routes available, including the assessment only route, or to seek registration for a teaching qualification awarded overseas. Various governments at Westminster have approved QTS for teachers from certain countries with acceptable teaching qualifications.

The numbers admitted via the various routes in recent years is shown in the table.

	2021/22	2022/23	2023/24	2024/25
ITT in England	37,077	32,877	26,911	25,621
Assessment only route	1,576	1,511	1,697	1,670
Wales/Scotland and Northern Ireland	1,907	1,790	1,457	1,392
OTT recognised for QTS	1,684	5,750	5,233	912
All routes	42,244	41,928	35,298	29,595

Source: Teaching Regulation Agency Annual Report and Accounts 2024-25

Those granted QTS, especially through the ITT routes in England, may not enter service in schools where QTS is a requirement. They may choose to work in the private school sector or those post-16 establishments where QTS is not a requirement. They may also move abroad. On the other hand, those granted QTS by the assessment only route and by converting teaching qualifications from outside of England are highly likely to be either working or expecting to work in a school where QTS is required for a teacher to be paid on the Qualified Teacher Scale.

Schools have aways been able to employ unqualified teachers, once called instructors, either where no qualified teacher was available or where the law did not require them to employ qualified teachers, as in some academies and free schools. That latter exemption may be changed by the current parliamentary Bill once it becomes law.

The decline in ITT registrations is partly down to reductions in the primary ITT numbers. These have declined to meet the reduced need for teachers due to the decline in the birthrate, but the fall in registrations also highlights the ITT recruitment crisis of the years immediately post the covid pandemic. Hopefully, the number of registrations will increase over the next few years as targets should once again be met in many secondary subjects.

Where did overseas teacher applying for QTS apply from?

Country	2023/24	2024/25	Difference
Australia	494	486	-8
Canada	174	148	-26
Ghana	6912	1916	-4996
Hong Kong	107	490	383
India	1762	779	-983
Ireland ROI	93	88	-5
Jamaica	281	157	-124
New Zealand	195	177	-18
Nigeria	5189	1519	-3670
South Africa	617	229	-388
Ukraine	217	131	-86
USA	706	706	0
sub total	16747	6826	-9921

All applications	18,310	12413	-5897
% list of all applications	91%	55%

The response to both a change in the rules regarding overseas trained teachers, and the evidence of a teacher shortage in England, produced a spike in applications in 2023/24 to register as qualified teachers in England from two West African countries, Ghana and Nigeria. Following the exit from the EU, numbers from most EU countries are now very low, amounting to less than 300 in 2024/25, of which 74 applications were from teachers trained in Spain.

Of the countries with the largest number of applications in 2023/24, 1,197 teachers from Ghana; 723 from Hong Kong; 550 from India; 1,309 from Nigeria and 235 from the USA resulted in an award.

Of course, granting an award did not mean that a visa would also be granted, but without these teachers many schools would have found staffing their schools even more of an issue that it actually was in September 2024.

Teaching; a well behaved profession

Posted on August 19, 2025 by John Howson

A recent post on LinkedIn asked about whether a ban from teaching, with the possibility of a request for reinstatement after a set period of time was appropriate as a punishment for a drink driving offence by a teacher? This set me thinking about the Teaching Regulation Agency (TRA) that oversees the handling of conduct cases against those working as teachers. The Agency also handles requests for Qualified Teacher Status. Their latest report and accounts can be found at: Teaching Regulation Agency Annual Report and Accounts 2024-25

Drink driving cases involving teachers that come before the TRA are relatively rare. There have been around 12 hearings between January and August 2025 where this was the main issue in relation to misconduct by a teacher. Interestingly, while, overall, cases against male teachers significantly outnumber those heard against female teachers, in drink driving cases there were only three hearings against male teacher compared with nine against female teachers. In three cases no order was made, the finding of the case proved and the associated publicity were deemed enough of a sanction. In the other cases, the teacher could seek to have prohibition notice set aside after a period of between two to five years. If successful they would then be returned to the register of qualified teachers.

The TRA annual report for 2024-25 notes that there were only four prohibition set-aside hearings during the year for any imposition of a prohibition notice, of which two were successful. So, it seems unlikely that any of these teachers will return to the profession, at least in a regulated setting. As I have noted before, ‘Teacher’ is not officially a reserved occupation terms so, rather like estate agent, anyone can use the term. I would have liked to see the present Bill before parliament provide the status of a reserved occupation to the term ’teacher’, so that only those with QTS or in training could use the title.

The most common reason for prohibition so far in 2025 is misconduct of a sexual nature. This ranges from criminal convictions for anything from rape to the taking of inappropriate photographs. More than 80 male teachers, but fewer than ten female teachers, have had cases of this type of misconduct heard so far in 2025. Most resulted in prohibition orders, with no opportunity for a set-aside request. However, a few cases did allow for requests for reinstatement after a set period. These included the two teachers that had, presumably consensual, sex on school premises.

There were relatively few cases concerning teachers or school leaders interfering with examination or SATs outcomes. Of seven such cases, five resulted on ‘No Order’ and the others a prohibition with permission to request a set-aside after two years. It might seem that the profession has got the message about the need for letting children’s work speak for itself.

Most cases of ‘improper conduct’ that are not sexual in nature have resulted in prohibition with a request for set-aside after two to three years; exceptionally it may be a five-year period that was imposed. These can include single instances of primary school teachers slapping a pupil once, although such instances are mercifully rare, and often reveal the frustration that can face any teacher at any time when in a challenging disciplinary situation.

Teacher conduct is highly regulated, and there is now a considerable body of ‘case law’, so it is not surprising that many hearing are heard ‘in absentia’ as the individual may well have been reconciled to the end of their career in teaching.

The TRA Annual Report listed 297 hearings in 2024-25, with 191 prohibition notices resulting from the hearings. For a profession of well over half a million, this is a credit to the responsible behaviour of almost everyone working as a teacher.

Few successful appeals for infant class places in 2025.

Posted on August 18, 2025 by John Howson

One consequence in the fall in the birth rate seems to have been a downward trend in appeals over admissions to infant classes. Key Stage 1 classes have been capped at 30 pupils for nearly 30 years now, so it might be expected that parents would be keen to ensure their offspring gained a place at the primary school of their choice. After all, parental choice has been a cornerstone of admissions policy since 1979, regardless of the government in power. The data for 2025 admissions ahs now been added to the tie series by the DfE. Admission appeals in England, Reporting year 2025 – Explore education statistics – GOV.UK

	2025
	Primary (infant classes)	Other primary classes	Primary
Admissions	617,802	137,153	754,955
Admission appeals lodged by parents	8,250	6,334	14,584
Admission appeals lodged by parents (percentage)	1.3	4.6	1.9
Appeals heard by an appeals panel	5,128	3,871	8,999
Appeals heard by an appeals panel (percentage)	0.8	2.8	1.2
Successful appeals	499	1,096	1,595
Successful appeals (percentage)	9.7	28.3	17.7

Of the 617,802 requests for places in infant classes, only 8,250 resulted in an appeal, presumably as the child was not placed in the school of the parent’s choosing at offer day. Some parents either accept another school or a place became available, so 3,122 of these appeals were not proceeded with, leaving just 5,128 appeals heard across the whole of England. Of these appeals, only 499, or 9.7% of the appeals heard were successful, presumably because of the class size limit.

Across the rest of the primary age range, there were only 14,584 appeals, or 1.9% of those either moving children during the Key Stage 2 phase or joining for the first time, perhaps because of the imposition of VAT on private school fees in January 2025. Again, a number of these appeals were not heard, presumably again because a place could be found after the appeal had been lodged. Interestingly, the success rate was much higher for these appeals than for the appeals for admission to infant classes, presumably because there is no mandated maximum class size for Key Stage 2 classes.

In the secondary sector, appeals in 2025 were 4.9% of admissions, around the middle of the 4.5 to 5.5 range of the period between 2016 and 2025. Interestingly, the success rate of these appeals has been falling. In 2025, it was only 19.9%, compared with 26.3% of appeals heard in 2016.

As entry numbers are likely to fall in Year 7 over the next few years, it will be interesting to see whether the percentage of successful appeals rises over the next few years. However, it may well be that popular schools remain attractive to parents, and will still have no spare places creating the need to appeal, especially if siblings are not all granted the place at the same school.

The present Bill before parliament should return in-year admissions for all schools to local authority control. At present academies can opt out of a local system and manage their own in-year admissions. As I have not before (Jacob’s Law) this was especially challenging for children in care needing to find a new school place. Hopefully, their needs will be better appreciated in the future.

Does where you study make a difference to ‘A’ Level outcomes?

Posted on August 15, 2025 by John Howson

Next week, pupils will receive their GCSE results and will then have to decide where to continue their studies. If they are intending to take ‘A’ levels, then the options may be between staying on at the same school or transferring either to another school or to an institution run under further education rules such as either a general further education college or a Sixth Form College, where they exist.

As the tables for this years’ results by type of institution shows, there are different percentage in terms of outcomes.

Centre type	Year	Percentage of results at grade A and above	Percentage of results at grade C and above
Independent school including city training colleges (CTCs)	2025	48.40%	89.70%
Secondary selective school	2025	43.70%	88.20%
Free schools	2025	31.30%	80.60%
All state-funded	2025	25.20%	76.30%
Sixth form college	2025	24.00%	76.20%
Academies	2025	23.10%	75.00%
Secondary comprehensive or middle school	2025	22.60%	75.20%
Other	2025	16.40%	55.80%
Secondary modern school/high school	2025	16.30%	64.80%
Further education establishment	2025	14.40%	66.30%

Young people across England celebrate exam results – GOV.UK

I don’t think anyone would be surprised to see independent schools with the highest percentage of results at A*-A. But it is important to understand what the policy about entering candidates for the examination is when considering outcomes. Is anyone taking the subject entered or is there a bar to be achieved at ‘mock’ exam time to be allowed to enter.

These results also cannot identify any time candidates spent either on tutoring during the course or cramming during the Easer break before the actual examinations.

I am not sure whether the institutions classified as ‘City Training Colleges’ are actually ‘City Technology Colleges’. If so, it is not clear where UTCs and Studio Schools have been located? Possibly, along with the academies group or do they make up the ‘other group’ and does ‘other’ include special schools. Why Free Schools merit a separate line under a Labour government is an interesting question.

It is also not clear whether the further education establishments (not Sixth Form Colleges) include entries from adults as well as those that would be in Year 13 if at a school? Certainly, anyone thinking of doing ‘A’ levels at a college might want to ask about the grades achieved by students at the college. The eight per cent gap to a comprehensive school for those gaining the top grades in a further education establishment and the nearly nine per cent gap for Grade C and above merits questions if faced with the choice. However, an earlier post noted, there are differences in the percentage of candidates achieving top grades between different subjects, and that may well be a factor in the outcomes.

This year, boys outperformed girls for the first time since 2018. There have also been different rates of improvement when comparing percentages achieving the top grades by type of institution. Without knowing what types of institution are classified as ‘other’ it is difficult to account for the decline in outcomes for the top grades for these schools.

Provider	% difference 2025 on 2023
Free schools	4
Secondary modern school/high school	2.7
Secondary selective school	2.3
Independent school including city training colleges (CTCs)	1.9
All state-funded	1.7
Academies	1.6
Sixth form college	1.5
Secondary comprehensive	1.3
Further education establishment	0.7
Other	-2.3

It would also be integrating to compare the different types of intuitions by their outcomes by region.

Better outcomes but rankings don’t change much

Posted on August 14, 2025 by John Howson

Congratulations to everyone receiving examination results today. And a big Thank you to all the other family members, including siblings, the teachers and other school staff, and, indeed, anyone that helped the candidates achieve their grades.

In the first year of this blog, 2013, now available as a book, TEACHERS, SCHOOLS AND VIEWS ON EDUCATION: How 2013 unfolded as viewed from my blog eBook : HOWSON, JOHN: Amazon.co.uk: Kindle Store I wrote a post comparing the percentage of A* grades between physics and media studies. At that time physics had a much higher percentage of A* outcomes than did media studies. That didn’t make physics easier than media studies as an ‘A’ Level, but might reflect the policies around who could take the subject, and of those that took the subject who were entered into the examination.

Fast forward to 2025 and we find the following

Category	Subject	Year	Number Sat	A* %	A*-A %	A*-B %	A*-C %	A*-D %
A Level UK	Physics	2025	44957	11.2	32.1	52.9	71.7	86.0
A Level UK	Media / Film / TV Studies	2025	23320	2.4	14.8	50.5	82.3	96.0

A level and Level 3 results – Summer 2025 – JCQ Joint Council for Qualifications

There is still a big difference between the percentage of candidates in the two subjects gaining A*-A results. Such differences makes it is risky to talk about average outcomes when there is a difference of more than 17 points in the percentages gaining A*-A grades between the two subjects. It is worth blanking out the subject names and asking a random group of people to tell you which set is physics and which media studies, a subject sometimes rubbished by politicians as easy.

Regular readers of this blog will know that I have been doing some work on funding across the country, and an apparent bias towards London, as measured by changes pupil teacher ratios during the past 50 years as a proxy for funding. The paper can be found on Researchgate at: (PDF) PTRS OVER TIME: A REVIEW OF PUPIL TEACHER RATIOS BETWEEN 1974 AND 2024 AND TWO PERIODS OF LOCAL GOVERNMENT RE-ORGANISATION PTRS OVER TIME: A REVIEW OF PUPIL TEACHER RATIOS

It is worth looking at how the regions fared in the ‘A’ level results. The table places the regions in the order that the percentage of A*-A grades achieved and the change between 2023 and 2025

region	Difference % A grade
North West	2.50%
Yorkshire and Humber	2.30%
London	2.10%
England	1.60%
East Midlands	1.50%
East	1.40%
West Midlands	1.30%
South East	0.90%
North East	0.80%
South West	0.70%

DfE release 14^th August 2025

It would be interesting to drill down within the regions to see whether types of schooling -see next post for national outcomes – makes a difference. Why is the improvement so small in the South West and North East regions? Is the small increase in the South East partly a result of the higher number of candidates from either private schools or selective schools where outcomes were already high. This will be one static to track over the next few years to see any possible change due to the VAT imposition on private schools.

I am sorry that there is less to say about T Levels and other Level 3 qualifications that are equally as important as A Levels to both those that took them and society as a whole.

2013 posts now available as ebook for £3.70

Posted on August 13, 2025 by John Howson

Is discipline worse in schools?

Posted on August 12, 2025 by John Howson

It was interesting to hear Laura McInerney and Tom Bennett on the ‘Today’ programme on BBC Radio 4 this morning discussing whether or not behaviour was worse in schools these days than in the past. Both are experienced commentators, and Tom led a review in 2017 for the then government, about behaviour in schools. It is also interesting to see the BBC taking an interest in schools. The World at One last Sunday (also BBC Radio 4) devoted the whole of the programme to an analysis of the SEND issue. Interestingly, there was no government spokesperson available on Sunday, so they had to make do with the chair of the Education Select Committee.

The discussion this morning was around whether or not behaviour had worsened in schools, and if so, why? The usual suspects, covid and mobile phones were trotted out in support of discipline being worse in schools, along with families facing multiple challenges, but there were precious few facts.

One way of measuring the state of discipline in schools is by looking at the number of permanent exclusions each year by schools. The largest single reason each year for these exclusions is always ‘persistent disruptive behaviour’. So, this might be seen as a good proxy measure for how schools are faring in relation to discipline in the classrooms. Of course, this measure doesn’t pick up low level disruptive behaviour, but it is reasonable to assume that there is a correlation between the different levels of behaviour in schools.

Looking back over the past 30 years, the level of recorded permanent exclusions was 10,440 in 1998/99. The level fell to 5,040 in 2010/11. In the latest year, 2023/24 there were 10,885 permanent exclusions. On the face of it, discipline is getting worse again, but is only back to levels last seen at the end of the last century.

I would like to suggest to causes not mentioned on the ‘Today’ programme: teacher supply and school funding. Is there a causal relationship between the fact that permanent exclusions were at their lowest when schools were fully staffed, and had experienced a period of several years of significant funding by government. By contract, permanent exclusions seem to rise when there is difficulty staffing schools, and when funding is less than might be expected in a civilised society.

So, is the answer as simple as proper funding and staffing if you want fewer exclusions? The age and experience of the teaching force might also play a part. More experienced teachers, as I can testify from personal experience, are much less likely to face discipline issues then new entrants, especially if they are unqualified.

In the latest statistics on exclusions, 13 of the 25 local authorities with the lowest rates of permanent exclusions were London boroughs. This just adds more evidence to my thesis that if the rest of the country were funded like London, schooling would be in a much better place across the country. Although I was also pleased to see Oxfordshire in 10^th place overall for the lowest rate of permanent exclusions.

Headteacher vacancies: even in August

Posted on August 9, 2025 by John Howson

More than 40 years ago, I first started counting heads. That’s actually headteacher vacancies, not actual heads. With some spare time on my hands, I thought that I would go back to my roots and look at what is the current state of play this August?

Of course, August is a quiet month, and there are currently fewer than 60 headteacher vacancies listed on the DfE website that is the main go-to place these days, just as the TES was in the 1980s.

The DfE vacancy website still contains some of the flaws created when it was established. Anyone trying to use modern methods of’ scraping’ jobs will come across the random duplication outcome that has been a feature of the site ever since its inception. I am not sure whether it was deliberate or a fault in the coding, but it always used to annoy me when I was running TeachVac to see the same job repeated in the listing more than once.

The alternative, pioneered by TeachVac was to ‘scrape’ school websites where schools placed their jobs. However, for obvious reasons, not all schools placed headship vacancies on their website. Presumably not to let staff and parents know of the impending departure of their headteacher.

At least with headteacher posts, there is no problem deciding whether the vacancy is a repeat listing or a re-advertisement. Headteacher posts are unique, and thus easy to track.

Anyway, what did I learn from collecting the first 50 vacancies? Special schools were over-represented, with eight such schools looking for a headteacher this August. As a part of the White Paper on SEND, I hope that the government will consider the staffing and training of staff for the special school sector that has long been a Cinderella, and if not bullied by the bigger primary and secondary sectors, it is certainly still in search of a fairy godmother.

There are only two secondary schools in the list, and one is a 10-14 school, and the other a private school. That doesn’t surprise me, as secondary schools usually sort out headship vacancies well before the start of the school year. If there is an unexpected vacancy, then there is often a deputy head that can ‘act up’ until an appropriate time to advertise the vacancy.

Of the 50 or so primary schools, including one First School, 17 were faith schools: ten Roman Catholic; six Church of England and one other Christian faith. These numbers don’t surprise me in the least; indeed, I would have been surprised if there were fewer Roman Catholic schools in the list. All the years I monitored headteacher vacancies, Roman Catholic schools often featured prominently in any listings.

The relative absence of schools from London and much of the South East is interesting, but I need more data to say anything else than that.

Almost all schools provide a starting salary, either as a point on the scale or as a cash sum. One academy adds 5% to the quoted salary. The indication of a starting salary is an improvement over the time when schools rarely quoted a starting salary for those interested in becoming their headteacher.

Whether I keep us this task will no doubt depend upon how much else I have to do, but it was interesting retracing my footsteps.

John Howson

Education and the numbers that affect what happens

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