Are we levelling up?

Posted on August 17, 2023 by John Howson

England has a teacher supply crisis in its secondary schools. Not, please note in most areas in its primary schools. Years of missed targets for trainee numbers must have an effect on the labour market unless other sources of teacher supply can be found.

From today the effect of missed targets on examination results will also start to become clear. Will those young people most likely to stay in the local economy have fared less well than those that will disappear off to a university, and then who knows where (likely London in many cases) after graduation, rather returning to their local area where they were brought up. If so, what are the consequences for those local economies?

As the latest in my series on the what happened in the labour market for teachers, as measured by advertisements tracked by TeachVac between January and the end of July 2023, I have managed a quick calculation of number of advertisements for teachers by the Free School Meal percentage of schools. This measurement might suggest whether schools with higher percentages of FSM pupils have more staff turnover?

This is a crude measure because it doesn’t standardise for school size. A better measure is for turnover measured after taking pupil numbers into account and matching the resultant outcome against the percentage of FSM pupils. I haven’t yet had time to do that calculation.

Adverts by school	>10	10-20	21-30	31-40	41+	Total schools
FSM
0-10	201	162	56	28	13	460
11-20	415	323	160	36	55	989
21-30	310	255	120	63	60	808
31-40	162	150	80	34	37	463
41-50	97	89	50	27	15	278
51-60	34	32	14	4	5	89
60+	5	4	1	0	1	11
total	1224	1015	481	192	186	3098
40+	136	125	65	31	21	378
Adverts by school	>10	10-20	21-30	31-40	41+
FSM
0-10	44%	35%	12%	6%	3%	100%
11-20	42%	33%	16%	4%	6%	100%
21-30	38%	32%	15%	8%	7%	100%
31-40	35%	32%	17%	7%	8%	100%
41-50	35%	32%	18%	10%	5%	100%
51-60	38%	36%	16%	4%	6%	100%
60+	45%	36%	9%	0%	9%	100%
total	40%	33%	16%	6%	6%	100%
40+	36%	33%	17%	8%	6%	100%

Source: TeachVac

There is some evidence from the tables that schools with lower percentages of pupils on Free School Meals do have a lower turnover of staff, and that schools with a higher percentage of such pupil do experience did experience high numbers of advertisements for teaching staff during the January to July 2023 period.

This type of analysis is important because too often the focus is on the student: attendance rates; previous history of examination taking and other factor such as free school meals, but these are not linked to school factors.

Thus, today, BBC Radio 4 has been worrying about the performance of students in the North East compared to students in London. Nick Gibb, The Minister, on the world at One on Radio 4, (I don’t often agree with him), but I do in this instance, suggested it was more a London and the rest of the country difference. However, The Minister didn’t say that there are more independent schools in the south than the north, and that the ability to recruit staff might be a factor in the widening gap in outcomes between those regarded as ‘disadvantaged’ and other pupils.

To ignore staff turnover, is to miss an important component in a system that has failed to train sufficient teachers in many subjects for nearly a decade now. Such shortfall in a market-based recruitment system must surely have consequences?

More jobs: lower employment outcomes

Posted on July 27, 2023 by John Howson

The data provided by the DfE in the teacher profiles is very much at the headline level and has made direct comparisons with previous year more of a challenge except where the DfE has recalculated the data for earlier years. This blog looks at employment percentages by ethnic group and region of training.

The change in methodology introduced by the DfE in calculating completion rates for postgraduate students in ITT in 2021/22 has made a difference to the percentages of each ethnic grouping employed in state-funded schools. For comments on last year’s data under the previous methodology please see Disturbing profile data on new teachers | John Howson (wordpress.com)

For the latest DfE profiles see Initial teacher training performance profiles, Academic year 2021/22 – Explore education statistics – GOV.UK (explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk)

Although the difference between the groups is smaller than under the previous methodology, there are still differences. The most notable is between the Asian Group and the White and Black groups; a difference of some 7% points.

Postgraduate trainee qualified teacher status and employment outcomes by ethnic group

Group	2017/18	2018/19	2019/20	2020/21	2021/22
Total	80%	78%	74%	73%	75%
Asian	78%	73%	67%	64%	69%
Black	82%	81%	74%	71%	76%
Mixed	82%	81%	74%	71%	76%
Other	79%	75%	65%	66%	71%
White	81%	78%	74%	74%	76%
Unknown	78%	86%	80%	76%	80%

Initial teacher training performance profiles

The ‘unknown’ grouping is the only one where under the new methodology the 2021/22 percentage is higher than the percentage in 2017/18. The increase for this grouping may be down to the larger numbers in the latest survey recorded as ‘unknown’.

Again, the lack of a breakdown between primary trainees, where trainees may have found that jobs were more difficult to come by, and secondary sector trainees, where in most subjects the jobs advertised exceeded trainee numbers, makes it difficult to say much more about the overall outcomes for the sector. However, a percentage of the increases in employment percentages between 2020/21 and 2021/22 can be put down to the larger increase in secondary teacher vacancies between the two years.

There is little difference in employment outcomes for other groups, with women having a slightly higher percentage employed in state-funded schools than men, and older trainees a slightly high percentage than younger trainees.

Postgraduate trainee outcomes by region for the 2021/22 academic year

	Total trainees	Percentage awarded QTS	Percentage of those awarded QTS teaching in a state-funded school
England	31,747	93%	75%
North East	1,261	87%	66%
North West	4,840	93%	64%
Yorkshire and The Humber	3,358	90%	72%
East Midlands	2,134	92%	78%
West Midlands	3,346	93%	73%
East of England	2,531	94%	85%
London	7,319	94%	81%
South East	4,574	94%	78%
South West	2,384	93%	77%

Initial teacher training performance profiles

London and the Home Counties were the regions where the highest percentages of those awarded QTS were likely to be employed in a state-funded school. This is despite the fact that these areas also contain the largest percentage of private schools.

Some of the rationale for reducing trainee numbers in the north of England is obvious from the employment outcomes. Assuming that trainees wish to join the state sector, the fact that only two thirds of those with QTS in both the North East and North West regions were in employment does suggest that there was a question about the distribution of places across the country. The reduction of places in the South West after the recent review, and especially in Devon, does seem harder to explain from just the employment statics alone.

Reduced ITT numbers; who wins?

Posted on June 28, 2023 by John Howson

A review of the detail behind last December’s DfE ITT Census can shine some interesting light on how the current recruitment crisis can affect different schools.

Broadly speaking, trainees can be classified into three groups: those in school and the classroom and receiving a salary; those on school centred courses, but not salaried and finally, those in higher education or other associated courses. The first group are most likely to be employed in the schools where they are training, and so are not considered part of the pool of job seekers for September vacancies.

The second group may be employed by the schools where they are based, and such schools are wise to consider this option.

The third group are likely to be on the free market as job seekers for September vacancies. How have the numbers differed between 2019 and 2022? I looked at the data from the DfE’s ITT Census for three regions: London; the South East and the North East regions.

London	2019	2022
High Achievers	641	1393
Apprenticeships	65	368
School Direct Salaried Route	1044	285
sub total	1750	2046
SCITT	253	457
School Direct Fee Route	810	496
sub total	1063	953
Higher Education	837	656
total	3650	3655
Adjust for HA		2900

South East	2019	2022
High Achievers	220	0
Apprenticeships	33	97
School Direct Salaried Route	577	175
sub total	830	272
SCITT	488	687
School Direct Fee Route	1137	828
sub total	1625	1515
Higher Education	1566	1252
total	3768	2942
Adjust for HA		3150

North East	2019	2022
High Achievers	87	0
Apprenticeships	10	19
School Direct Salaried Route	15	7
sub total	112	26
SCITT	340	207
School Direct Fee Route	413	327
sub total	753	534
Higher Education	618	375
total	1483	935
Adjust for HA		1,000

Source DfE ITT Census as accessed by TeachVac

The first issue is that the High Achiever numbers were all allocated to the London region in the 2022 census, whereas, in 2019, they were allocated according to the region where they were located. This has the effect of inflating trainee numbers in London in 2022, and reducing them in some other regions. I have used the 2019 numbers to compensate, but it is obviously an estimate. I am not sure why the DfE has made this change, but it is unhelpful.

The second issue is that the postgraduate numbers used in the table do not distinguish between primary and secondary courses. Part of the reduction in numbers may be down to a fall in primary course targets and allocations.

However, In the London region, the change, after adjusting for the High Achiever over-counting, resulted in a small switch in percentage terms from trainees in the first group of school-based trainees to those in the second group, with the third group of higher education classified trainees remaining at 23% of the graduate total (Not all this group are universities and some may be counted in the region where a national provider has its headquarters). However, this meant a loss of nearly 200 trainees from the free market total between 2019 and 2022. This goes some way to explain the challenges schools in London dependent upon the free market for new teachers have faced this year.

In the South East region, using the adjusted figures, the free pool percentage of trainees fell from 42% to 40% in 2022. With the reduction in recruitment, this meant a loss to the free pool of some 300 trainees, about eight per cent less than the 2019 total.

In the North East, the decline in the free pool was only around 4%, from 42% to 38%, but the decline in the actual number was nearly 500 trainees. This explains why some schools in the North East are experiencing recruitment difficulties in 2023.

As I wrote, way back in 1995, in Managing Partnerships in Teacher Training and Development by Bines and Welton (Routledge, page 213) schools that become involved the teacher preparation process can be winners in times of teacher shortages. The same is as true today as it was when I first wrote those words.

Not a bribe, but a gift or Scholarship?

Posted on May 23, 2019 by John Howson

It is difficult to know what to call the payments to teachers of mathematics and physics in parts of the north of England and the Opportunity Areas, announced by the DfE today. https://www.gov.uk/guidance/apply-for-mathematics-and-physics-teacher-retention-payments

As the DfE make clear in their announcements, these payments are neither part of a teacher’s salary nor an allowance, as they don’t require either the teacher receiving the cash or the employer to pay either National Insurance or tax and presumably are not part of pensionable pay. I am not sure how HM Treasury regards this handout that has similar characteristics to the bounty paid to reservists with the forces.

Paying someone just for teaching specific subjects in particular geographical areas might have unintended consequences. There are some great schools in Harrogate, one of the areas included in the scheme, and I haven’t noticed that the schools in that area have any more challenges recruiting that do schools in London boroughs, so might we see a flight from London to teach mathematics in the Yorkshire Dales and Wolds. Interestingly, the Lake District and deprived Cumbrian Coast is not included in the list of qualifying local authorities. Surely an oversight?

This scheme looks like a blunter form of the Mrs Thatcher’s Schools of Exceptional Difficulty payments of the early 1970s, although that cash went to all teachers in the qualifying schools, but not to other staff.

How biologist and chemists teaching physics at Key Stage 3 will feel about this payment that they won’t receive unless they have the appropriate academic qualification in the subject, even if they have undertaken considerable professional development, is, no doubt, something the teacher associations will have to discuss with their members. Such teachers cannot just stop teaching physics, since head teachers can require staff to teach any subject where timetabling or other reasons require them to do so.

Making this announcement on EU election day does make it seem a bit like a Jo Moore story, one to be buried in the middle of a lot of announcements on a busy news day – the announcements were 12^th and 13^th down the list issued by the DfE this morning, although The Times newspaper, did carry the story today, so presumably the press was forewarned.

By not making this a salary supplement, the DfE presumably hopes to head off the question of equal pay for work of equal worth from other teachers working alongside the lucky recipients. I suspect head teachers will also want to ensure they can claim for these payments and not have to pay out of existing budgets. There was no mention in either of the government announcements about the mechanics of the scheme other than the statement that ‘details about the application process and the first year payment process will be available soon.’

TeachVac www.teachvac.co.uk will monitor trends in vacancies for teachers of physics and mathematics and report any changes seen. However, the way the scheme will be organised it should not have much immediate impact on the labour market.

Trainees needed, even in the North East

Posted on July 1, 2014 by John Howson

Yesterday The Guardian carried an article about the impending teacher shortage that was kind enough to quote some figures from the research I have undertaken. You can read the full article at http://www.theguardian.com/education/2014/jun/30/teacher-shortage-in-2020s Various BBC local radio stations have picked up on the story, and I am once again being asked to do interviews down the phone. In preparing for the one on Radio Tess tomorrow morning I thought I would check the position in the North East regarding the number of teacher preparation courses still with vacancies as of today by looking at the UCAS web site. It is irritating that whereas the DfE site last year showed the number of places, and the number still available, UCAS this year only shows whether the provider has a vacancy at present or not.

Anyway, the depressing news for a region that usually has no problem filling its ITT places is that apart from in History, PE, and some modern foreign languages, there are still a considerable number of providers with at least one vacancy in many other subjects. For instance 16/17 providers of places in geography have at least one vacancy: only Newcastle University has the course full sign up in this subject. That’s actually down from both universities offering places in geography that were full last time I looked a couple of weeks ago. In Mathematics, 30 out of the 38 providers still have places, and in Physics it is 23 out of 24! Even in primary, where I would have expected in most years all places to have been long filled, and there to be unofficial waiting lists, this year, 46 of the 95 providers offering graduate training courses for intending primary teachers are still showing vacancies. Of course, that might only be 46 vacancies out of several hundred places, but surely there shouldn’t be any vacancies nine weeks before the courses actually start.

No doubt the review by Sir Peter Carter that is currently under way will take cognisance of this type of data, and want to report on what is hampering recruitment this year, for we really cannot experience another year likes this next year.

Sadly, it is probably too late to do anything about most unfilled places this year as schools approach the start of the long summer break. Nevertheless, Ministers will have to answer some challenging questions come the autumn if the current figures turn out to be the reality of the recruitment round.

In the past, the DfE has tended to treat a year once over as a disappointment, but no more, if places are not filled. I doubt that commentators will be as forgiving of any shortfall against training numbers this year as we have so many extra pupils to find teachers for during the coming decade, as the Guardian article made clear.

It is too soon to decide whether one type of programme has fared worse than another, but there may well be a debate about this once the final figures are known in the autumn.

John Howson

Education and the numbers that affect what happens

Tag Archives: North East