ITT – more applicants doesn’t always mean more offers

In my previous post, I noted the increase of nearly 6,000 I the number of candidates applying for a place on a graduate teacher preparation course. Up from 21,436 in March 2025 to 27,352 in March 2026. This post explores the relationship, both this March and last march, between candidates and places offered to those candidates.

Firstly, the number of candidates and the number of ‘offers’ to candidates in each secondary subject.

candidatesoffers
2025202620252026
BIOLOGY21612044713332
ART&DESIGN9601026451366
MFL18762246821733
PE1988221911491043
PHYSICS33296522825918
COMPUTING12702394341420
GEOGRAPHY1089843476292
OTHERS9261342281310
CLASSICS67623427
D&T661861273295
RE699693255208
MUSIC311275173136
MATHEMATICS4006534612771398
ENGLISH256128301032990
HISTORY11421281592624
BUS STUDIES607923132173
DRAMA336384162176
CHEMISTRY16622207441675

Note, not all subjects have seen increased candidate numbers within the overall increase.

Secondly, the next table shows the percentage of candidates so far ‘offered’ a place for 2026.

20252026Change
BIOLOGY33%16%-17%
ART&DESIGN47%36%-11%
MFL44%33%-11%
PE58%47%-11%
PHYSICS25%14%-11%
COMPUTING27%18%-9%
GEOGRAPHY44%35%-9%
OTHERS30%23%-7%
CLASSICS51%44%-7%
D&T41%34%-7%
RE36%30%-6%
MUSIC56%49%-6%
MATHEMATICS32%26%-6%
ENGLISH40%35%-5%
HISTORY52%49%-3%
BUS STUDIES22%19%-3%
DRAMA48%46%-2%
CHEMISTRY27%31%4%

Only in Chemistry, where because of the reduction in the size of the bursary to those applying for biology courses it seems likely that those with a choice between the two subjects have opted to apply for chemistry with its higher bursary for 2026. As a result, biology, with a 17% fall in offers this March when compared with March 2025, is the big loser.

Despite the change in candidate numbers, the percentages offered places in March 2026 follows a similar ranking to March 2025.

% offered
20252026
MUSIC56%49%
HISTORY52%49%
PE58%47%
DRAMA48%46%
CLASSICS51%44%
ART&DESIGN47%36%
ENGLISH40%35%
GEOGRAPHY44%35%
D&T41%34%
MFL44%33%
CHEMISTRY27%31%
RE36%30%
MATHEMATICS32%26%
OTHERS30%23%
BUS STUDIES22%19%
COMPUTING27%18%
BIOLOGY33%16%
PHYSICS25%14%

Music is such a specialist subject that it generally only attracts candidates likely to be accepted. However, current ‘offer’ levels are still well below those recorded in the first four years of the century when the number accepted ranged between 68% (2001) and 78% (2003). (Source: John Howson’s collection of GTTR Annual Reports). 2003 was after graduates training to be teachers received a training grant and were also exempt from tuition fees.

Of course, the most interesting percentage of ‘offers’ is that for physics, where only 14% of candidates have so far been made an offer. It looks as if the better candidates for biology are those that have opted to apply for chemistry in 2026, resulting in a significant fall in ‘offers’ in biology.

For subjects such as history and physical education, it is wise for candidates to apply early in the recruitment round since places fill quickly.

Finally, is the present system fit for purpose? Should there be a closing date by which all applicants will be considered,  rather than the drip feed approach as a present?

ITT – 9 subjects with fewer offers than March last year

Despite the increase in applicants for secondary ITT courses, from 21,436 in March 2025, to 27,352 this March, ‘offers’ from course providers are down in nine different subjects this March when compared with March 2025. The subjects with fewer offer so far this year are:

SubjectOffer March 2026Offer March 2025% change
Art & Design36645119%
Biology33271353%
Classics273421%
English99010324%
Geography29247639%
Modern Foreign Languages73382111%
Music13617321%
Physical Education104311499%
Religious Education20825518%

 I think one can discount both Physical Education and English from subjects where the declines are of concern. Elsewhere, the changes in bursary support are obviously having an effect. Those biologists that can do so are now applying for Chemistry – where there is still a bursary, and offers are up from 441 last march to 675 this March – but the overall offer across the two subjects are still below last March at 997, compared with 1,154 last March.

It is the arts subjects that seem to have been most badly hit. This is not surprising given the changes to the bursary scheme that saw the bursary axed completely for music and religious education, and reduced for biology from £26,000 to just £5,000, while it increased to £29,000 for chemistry.  French and Spanish also lost their £26,000 bursaries. The reduction in ’offers’ in geography, down by 39% may also be due to the cut in the bursary from £26,000 to just £5,000.

Given the need for fewer teachers in the future, as secondary school rolls start to fall, these changes to bursaries do look like a gamble. How much of a gamble will be clear when the DfE finally announces the ITT training targets. But my hunch is that music and religious education along with geography will join the list of subjects not hitting their targets unless the current global war affects graduate recruitment in the summer. Will there be a late surge of new graduates looking to teaching, similar to that during the early months of the pandemic in 2020? The jury is out for the moment, but such a surge would not surprise me. However, as a precaution, reinstating a scholarship in the arts subjects might be a wise precaution. This might make it look less like a -U- turn than a reinstatement of the bursary.

Elsewhere in the data, candidates form the ‘Rest of the World’ accounted for 30% of all candidates this March, compared with 21% last March.  The DfE really does need to show how this increase affects different subjects and how many of these candidates will be likely to receive a visa to both learn and then teach in England? Can we afford to waste funds on those with no prospect of teaching in England, while depriving potential home candidates of bursaries.

As expected at this time of year, there has been more interest from career changers than university students, with those under 24 showing an increase over last year of just 1,000 compared with an increase of more than 4,900 from those in the 25-39 age groupings.

Overseas applicants boost teacher training numbers

As well as the White Paper, today also saw the publication of the February data on applications to postgraduate teacher preparation courses. Initial teacher training application statistics for courses starting in the 2026 to 2027 academic year – Apply for teacher training – GOV.UK

The headline number of note is the percentage of applications from outside of the United Kingdom. Last February these applicants totalled just over 6,000, accounting for 24% of all applications. This February, the applicants from outside the United Kingdon now total almost 10,500, and account for 33% of all applications.

The key question that the published data does not reveal, but is of great consequence, is whether these extra 4,000 candidates are applying across the board for all subjects, or are concentrated in just a few subjects?

This question is of real importance, as there is now a split between subjects where ‘offers’ are above last year, and those other subjects where, despite rising unemployment in the wider economy, ‘offers’ in February 2026 are below those from February 2025. Many of these latter subjects will likely miss their target once again this year unless there is a dramatic shift in applications during the second half of the recruitment round, such as last seen in 2020, as a result of the covid pandemic.

Doing better than last year with regard to ‘offers’ are: physics; mathematics; history; design & technology; computing; chemistry, drama, and primary sector courses. English is just about holding its own when compared with February 2025.

Doing less well than in February 2025 are: modern languages; art & design; religious education; physical education; music; geography; classics and biology. Of these subjects, the decline in offers for physical education should be of no concern as the number of ‘offers’ is already more than 900 or more than the combined total of ‘offers’ for art & design; drama; music; religious education and ‘other subjects.

Does this government not care about the arts? I have long campaigned for the return of the music bursary. With music ‘offers’ down at just 110 this February, compared with 139 last February, that is a loss of 29 potential teachers of music, and the gap with last year has widened since the January data were published.

So, are there any other worries? Applications from candidates over the age of 25 appear to be rising faster than from newly graduating students. There are only 128 more applications from the youngest age grouping, compared with 208 from the 45 to 49 age group, and more than 2,000 additional applicants this year from the 25 to 29 age group. It would be helpful to know in which age grouping the additional 4,500 applicants from outside the United Kingdom fall, and which subjects they have applied for this year?

With the increase in applications from men, up from 9,561 to 13,654 being proportionally more than the increase in applications from women, up from 15,735 to 18,224, it would also be informative to know which subjects these additional 4,000 male applicants have applied for, and how many fall into applicants from the ‘rest of the world’ group?

While apprenticeships have shown good growth in applications, higher education courses have had to deal with the bulk of the additional applicants, with more than 5,000 additional applicants. My guess would be that the bulk of the new overseas applicants are targeting higher education courses.

We now enter that period of the recruitment round where fewer undergraduates will be applying until after the examination season, so further growth between now and the July data are most likely from career changers rather than undergraduates. This fact might push the proportion of ’rest of the world’ applicants to an even higher percentage than the 33% recorded this month. Perhaps it is now time for the DfE to review how the data are published in order to make it more useful to those interested in the labour market for teachers?

Music teacher shortage: the situation worsens

Regular readers will know that I have been pursuing a return of the ITT bursary for postgraduates enrolling to train as a music teacher on courses starting in the autumn of 2026. This is a very small -U- turn for the government, but a necessary one for the subject, and its future in our schools and universities.

Previous posts on this blog have demonstrated that the removal of the bursary has already affected ‘offers’ to music courses, with a reduction of around 20 ‘offers’ in January 2026 compared with January 2025. Traditionally, any reduction in early-bird offers is not recovered later in the annual application cycle. Music ITT will miss its target: my reasoning | John Howson

This post looks at competition for teachers of music. There are three main areas for teachers to seek work as a teacher of music in a school: the state sector- including sixth form colleges; independent schools in England; private schools across the globe that seek to employ teachers trained in England.

Our starting point this year is the 367 trainees in music identified by the DfE’s annual census taken in December 2025. Add in Teach First and any late arrivals, and the overall total might be 380 – being generous.

Take of 10% for non-completes and those not choosing teaching as a career, and the labour market might have a supply of 342 trainees seeking work.

By mid-February, there had been 100 advertised vacancies by state schools for teachers of music without a TLR – i.e. classroom teacher posts. A well-used job board recorded 15 classroom teacher vacancies from independent schools in England on a single day in mid-February.

On the same date, the same job board, recorded 99 vacancies for teachers of music from schools across the world.  This was made up of 40 vacancies in The Gulf, primarily in Dubai and the other Emirates, but there were 13 vacancies from schools in China, and 46 from schools elsewhere in the world.

Now I don’t expect nearly qualified teachers to apply for these vacancies, but to the extent that these posts are not filled by teachers already working overseas, then these vacancies will take teachers away from schools in England, and create new vacancies.

Assuming only a third of these vacancies are filled by teachers leaving schools in England, and the rest filled in other ways that would be an extra 33 vacancies at present.

Adding together the 100 state school vacancies so far in 2026 to the 15 already recorded private schools in England plus the 33 overseas schools currently seeking a new teacher that might recruit from schools in England that produces a total of 148 vacancies by mid-February, or 43% of the available total of trainees. Increase the take by overseas schools to half of their current vacancies, and not far off half the available pool for September and January could have been offered a job.

Now, some of the vacancies in Egland will be filled by existing teachers changing jobs or returners to the profession, but most experienced teachers will probably be looking for a post with a TLR if seeking a move to another school.

With three months to go to the summer resignation date, and six months until terms start, the pool of available teachers already looks stretched, and this is with trainees that have enjoyed the bursary.

If the lack of a bursary shrinks the 2027 pool, because there are fewer trainees, is removing the bursary a sensible move? In my opinion, it is not, and the government should reintroduce the bursary for trainees starting preparation courses in autumn 2026 to be a teacher of music.

 We will continue to monitor the situation and report back through future blogs as the recruitment round unfolds.

Music bursary: a recurring theme

Earlier today, when I was turning out some old papers about teacher supply issues, I came across a draft for a paper I wrote more than 30 years ago on the subject of failing to meet the demand for music teachers.

Interestingly, in the notes, I compared the data for the shortage subject receiving a bursary in 1990 and 1991, with music that wasn’t a bursary subject.

As you might expect, music stood out, even in the early 1990s as an anomaly.

Take Table 31 from the Interim Advisory Committee report of January 1991. This table lists the percentage of unfilled teacher vacancies recorded in a joint union survey.  Music ranked 6th worst in the list. In the DES Press notice on vacancies, issued on 25th August 1991, music was third worst as a percentage of teachers in post, with a vacancy rate of 2.4%. This placed music behind only, ‘other languages’ at 7.2% and German, at 2.5%.

In a DFES document ‘Projecting the Supply and Demand of Techers’, published in December 1990, the Department accepted that projections suggested a shortfall of teachers of music. Interestingly, music was the only subject with a shortfall across all four scenarios modelled in the document. Even so, music did not at that time join the list of subjects entitled to a bursary.

Another DES press notice, of 27th November 1990 (382/90), probably associated with the census of ITT trainees, normally published about that time of year, also showed a deterioration in ITT places filled from 88.9% in 1889, to 71.0% in 1990, although the actual number of trainees had increased from 282 to 340. In 1990, only mathematics, at 63.3% of places filled had a lower percentage of filled places than music.

So, what do I deduce from the data about both recruitment into ITT, and teacher vacancies, from nearly 40 years ago? Perhaps that attitudes in the civil service towards certain subjects in the curriculum don’t change very much.

Maybe the turnover of civil servants with responsibility for ITT bursaries is so frequent that it doesn’t allow for them to start afresh each year in considering the data and trends in each subject.

However, even that approach doesn’t really explain the dropping of the bursary from music for 2026 entry. I think the profession needs an explanation. Otherwise, the axing of the bursary for music can be seen as a cynical ploy to say money in a subject Ministers don’t fully appreciate in terms of its contribution to both society and the growth agenda.

I think that the Arts Council, DCMS, and the music lobby have a right to know why music lost its bursary, and to ask that it be replaced.

 However, having seen how both the DfE and DCMS have recently handled the physical education grants, I am not holing out much hope unless there is a real campaign to reinstate the bursary for music, perhaps with some scholarships provided by private funders. Don’t let us lose music from our state secondary schools.

Music: the podcast on the case for a bursary

I have asked notebookLM to create a podcast of the previous post about advocating for the return of the bursary for ITT music courses in England. Save for a slight misunderstanding about ‘returners’, I think it is an interesting podcast. The docx mentioned isn’t where the absence of the music bursary is shown. The announcement is at https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/funding-initial-teacher-training-itt/funding-initial-teacher-training-itt-academic-year-2026-to-2027

As this is a new use of AI to amplify my text in the blog, feedback is welcome through the comments.

The podcast is at https://drive.google.com/file/d/1WlmxPOKsyNcG1rkUVARwx6kqLW_rtAj_/view?usp=drive_web

Why Music Teacher Bursaries Matter for Education

What is the point of bursaries for trainee teachers not on routes into teaching that pay a salary? The assumption must be that an inducement, such as a bursary would help recruit more trainees, or at least keep those that want to be a teacher on their teacher preparation programme. 

Each year, the Department for Education decides which subjects will be allocated bursaries. In some subjects, the DfE also works with other bodies, such as subject associations, to offer alternative higher amounts of funding through scholarships. Both bursaries and scholarships have the advantage of being tax free to the recipients.

In the days when the Conservative government championed the Baccalaureate subjects above all others, it was understandable that subjects not included in the Baccalaureate might be regarded of less concern than those that made up the Baccalaureate, and thus that these subjects did not need bursaries, even if an insufficient number of trainees were recruited.

However, for courses operating in 2024/25 and 2025/26, the DfE did pay a bursary of £10,000 to those training to become teachers of music.

The bursary for music was not included within the list of eligible subjects for the courses operating in 2026/27. No reason was provided by the DfE for the removal of the bursary.

However, recruitment targets for music have been missed in six of the last seven years including for the current trainee group (2019/20–2025/26).

The failure to recruit to target has meant fewer music teachers in schools, and a drop in entries to public examinations. Between 2010/11, and the start of the coalition government, and 2022/23, entries for A Level music declined from 8,709 to 4,910. Interestingly, the percentage of A* and A grades increased from 24.3% to 41.6%. This might suggest that it was State schools, with their wider range of pupil abilities that saw the biggest fall in entries, as schools struggling to recruit music teachers axed examination courses that they could no longer staff.

Interestingly, a by-produce of the break-up of schools into many academy trusts might have meant that opportunities for collaboration between schools also declined after 2010, and the Academies Act.

How bad has the challenge of recruiting teachers of music been over the past few years? Were the ITT targets set by the DfE, and based upon the DfE’s own Teacher Supply Model accurate or over-optimistic in the need for teachers of music in state schools?

Pool 
MusicJanFebMarchAprilMayJuneSeptOctNovDec
251201922718511655-57-104-253-172-196-215
25620202051467724-59-86-117-144-162-171
4162021390358303243161117784514-9
315202225620811912-128-214-305-352-395-422
228202315681-3-126-278-356
2024
2025
3302026265  

Data from TeachVac and dataforeducation

The table starts with the ‘pool’ of music trainees likely to be available to state schools that year and reduces it by one for every vacancy recorded during the year. The minus number is the excess of vacancies over the ‘pool ‘number

Between 2018 and 2023, only the cohort of trainees recruited during Covid, and entering the labour market in 2021, provided sufficient trainee numbers to have allowed schools to be secure in filling vacancies for September.

Of course, in addition to new entrants to teaching there are those returning to teaching or entering from other sectors, such as further education or independent schools.

As a rule of thumb, perhaps half of vacancies might be filled by new entrants, and the other half from other sources. The data in the table would suggest that in most years, if demand from private schools was also taken into account, the labour market would need to have ensured a steady supply of ‘returners’ to fill all the advertised vacancies for music teacher posts.

Each year, for January appointments, returners would have been critical for schools seeking to make an appointment, including those teachers returning to England from teaching in schools in the southern hemisphere, with a December year-end. Normally, somewhere around 100 vacancies for a January start were advertised each year between 2019 and 2022.

So, why, if there is a shortage of teachers, and the Teacher Supply Model did not seem to have been overestimated demand, was the bursary axed? Could it have been the age-old HM Treasury view that if there is a base number that would enter teacher training under any circumstances, then why pay them a bursary?

In the absence of any other explanation, it is difficult to think of any other reason than this cynical approach for the axing of the bursary for music. Put another way, Ministers just didn’t care enough about music, and weren’t aware of the contribution of all forms of music to the national wealth and our export drive to keep the bursary when it was suggested it be axed.

Sadly, the music lobby hasn’t yet changed the government’s mind. However, there is still time to do so for this recruitment round. The data showing the difference in ‘offers’ for ITT courses, between the January 2025 and January 2026 data points should, by itself, be enough to force a rethink, or a -U- turn, if you prefer it.

 2026 ENTRY TO PG ITT
 MUSIC
2025 TARGET565
OFFERS JANUARY 202670
OFFERS JANUARY 202591
TOTAL OFFERS 2025416
DIFFERENCE 2025 TOTAL AND 2025 January OFFERS325
PROJECTION for 2026395
ESTIMATED SHORTFALL170

A decline in ‘offers’ from 91 to 70 is of serious concern, as these are the group most likely to be prepared to become a music teacher at whatever cost. My advice to Ministers: announce the bursary for music has been added to the list for entry in 2026 or watch the subject decline even further.

Fine words butter no parsnips

What is one to make of a government that announces an expansion of the place of the creative arts in the National Curriculum review literally weeks after cutting the bursary for trainee teachers of music? Labour’s determination to recruit new teachers doesn’t include music | John Howson 8th October 2026

If I am being kind, it would be that one part of the DfE doesn’t know what the other is doing. Recruiting trainee music teachers has been a challenge over the past few years, and with universities eyeing the future of music degree courses, recruitment probably won’t get any easier.

Did a Minister, when sanctioning the bursary withdrawal, ask what the forthcoming Curriculum Review might have to say about the subject?  If so, why was the bursary withdrawn if the creative arts re to play a larger part in the new curriculum?

Hopefully, someone at Westminster will ask this question over the next few days. Perhaps media arts programmes might also like to interrogate a Minister about this curious state of affairs.

Of course, it is possible that the talk of expanding provision is just that, and the government has no real intention of putting funds behind any expansion in order to make it happen. Blame can then be laid at the door of schools for not switching resources into the creative subjects.

After all the government just said that

A new core enrichment entitlement for every pupil – covering civic engagement; arts and culture; nature, outdoor and adventure; sport and physical activities; and developing wider life skills.’ New curriculum to give young people the skills for life and work – GOV.UK

Not much meat on the bone there. Delving into the detailed response from the government we find that

We recognise the Review’s concerns around access to music and that some schools require support to deliver music well, including from specialist teachers, particularly to help pupils to develop their knowledge and skills in learning to read music and play instruments. We continue to invest in instrument stocks through the music hubs. Our £25 million investment will provide over 130,000 additional instruments, equipment and other music technology by the end of 2026, with around 40,000 already in the hands of teachers and pupils. We will consider how we maximise the impact of this investment to ensure the opportunity of and access to a reformed music curriculum is fully realised.”  Government response to the Curriculum and Assessment Review page 34.

Not much joined up thinking there. Encouraging singing has a much lower capital cost than instruments, and can capture more pupils – see the great scheme at Debry Cathedral that has over 900 possible singers.

The first sentence of the paragraph bears no relation to the rest of the paragraph, so don’t hold out hopes that music will achieve more than lots of instruments sitting on shelves or being played by children whose parents can afford the lessons.  

I am very disappointed in the music section of the government’s response, especially that now I chair the Oxfordshire Music Board and so music is a particular interest of mine.