Category Archives: politics

Why TeachVac is important

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Earlier this month I posted about the ITT Census of trainees published by the DfE. I noted in one post that it was necessary to remove from the ITT census those trainees not likely to be looking for a teaching post because they are already in a school on salaried schemes.

From the reduced total also needs to be removed a percentage for in-course wastage and a desire by some teachers to work outside of the state school system in either private schools or Sixth Form/further education colleges.

What is left is the free pool that might look for a teaching post anywhere.

SubjectOpen Market
Mathematics1,467
Physical Education1,295
English1,214
History950
Chemistry644
Modern Languages600
Geography523
Biology495
Art & Design440
Other387
Design & Technology372
Physics366
Computing304
Drama304
Religious Education249
Music228
Business Studies164
Classics52
Total secondary10,054

From the list it seems clear that there are unlikely to be enough new entrants to satisfy the demand for teachers by schools in 2023 unless there is a substantial pay rise for teachers or other demands upon funding dampen demand below the level seen in 2022. To some extent demand will be affected by the actions of teachers already in the workforce. Early retirement, plus income from tutoring and some ‘supply’ teacher work might look attractive to some teachers in the latter stages of their career and with enough pension rights to feel confident about leaving full time teaching.

At TeachVac www.teachvac. We help match teachers to vacancies that meet their needs. Price at just £500 per year for secondary schools and just £75 for primary schools TeachVac has made 2 million matches in 2022 from over 100,000 vacancies listed and our pool of teacher sis growing rapidly at the present time as teachers start to think about where and what they want to teach in September.

Schools signing up to TeachVac now, won’t be invoiced until February and thus need not pay until early March. By then, they may well have already received more than 500 matches that covers the annual fee making all further matches effectively cost free.

Widening QTS but not to all

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My attention has been drawn to this excellent BBC article about the extension of QTS to qualified teachers from a wider range of countries. UK Teachers QTS programme: United Kingdom teaching opportunity for Nigeria, Ghana and odas – Wetin to know – BBC News Pidgin

The article is in Pidgin, but easily readable by anyone that uses English as their everyday language. Michael Gove, when Secretary of State extended the right to QT from teachers qualified in certain counties including, Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Switzerland, and the USA. EU and EEA teachers had right of access under the free movement of labour rules while the UK was part of the EU.

Now countries such as

South Africa,

Ghana,

Zimbabwe,

Nigeria,

Ukraine,

Singapore,

Jamaica, India, and

Hong Kong

Will be afforded similar rights to apply for recognition as Qualified Teachers, if qualified and with a minimum period of experience. Routes to qualified teacher status (QTS) for teachers and those with teaching experience outside the UK – GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)

The extension of the list raises interesting questions. The first is whether the Home Office, keen to reduce inward migration will offer visas to teachers from these countries before any arrival. No doubt teachers from Ukraine and Hong Kong, here as refugees will find the process of gaining employment rights easier than teaches from soe other countries on the list?

There is also the issue of whether taking qualified, and potentially experienced teachers, from other countries might affect teacher supply in those countries, especially if they too are facing teacher shortages either generally or in specific areas of the curriculum.

I also wonder why some other countries are not included on the list. There don’t seem to be any Caribbean States listed despite the high training standards for teachers that some such countries enjoy. Neither is the Indian Sub-continent and its various countries included.

It will be interesting to see how much difference widening the net will make to the 2023 labour market for teachers. As noted in the previous post, training to be a teacher in England seems like an attractive proposition for more applicants designated as from ‘rest of the word’ than in the past. Maybe teaching in England, despite the high cost of living as salary and working conditions teachers and not to mention the weather will see a boost in interest from nationals of the newly recognised countries for QTS; especially where they already have relatives living in England.

First look at 2023 ITT applications

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How content should the government be about the first release of data showing applications for graduate teacher training courses starting in autumn 2023? Initial teacher training application statistics for courses starting in the 2023 to 2024 academic year – Apply for teacher training – GOV.UK (apply-for-teacher-training.service.gov.uk) On the face of it, there must be gratification that mostly the numbers are going in the right direction, especially after the disastrous November 2021 data.

Indeed, there are nuggets of good news buried within the tables that regular watchers will discern. The sciences are doing better than last autumn, in terms of applications, as are shortage subjects such as design and technology and business studies. However, all this are relative, and the ‘better’ isn’t on a trajectory to make much of a dent in the shortfalls recorded in the recent ITT census of current trainee numbers; commented upon in three posts on this blog.

Overall, candidate numbers at the November count, are up from 8,831 in November 2021, to 9,557 this year. But, in the vital London and Home Counties regions of the East of England and the South East, candidate numbers are down slightly. This will be set of data to watch. Perhaps, more interesting is the contribution from candidates apply and classified as ‘Rest of the world’. Here candidate numbers are up from 589 to 1,209: more than double last November’s number.

The increase in candidate numbers is stronger among the older age groups and weakest among those of age 23; the only grouping to record a decline from last year’s number for November. As young graduates are the backbone of new entrants, the age profile of candidates will need watching carefully and, if necessary, the marketing mix adjusting to encourage more new graduates from the London area to consider teaching as a career.

Interestingly, applications from men to train as a teacher increased faster than those from women when compared with November 2021 data. Largely gone are the days of providers receiving a wall of applications for primary courses as soon as the recruitment cycle opens. Happy those still favoured with being able to make all their offers for these courses before the festive season and winter break.

Higher educations institutions seem to have borne the brunt of increase in applications. Perhaps affected by the increase in applications for those labelled as ‘Rest of the world’ candidates? Changes in applications for the other routes are too small to make any judgement, but will need watching carefully.

The government is unlikely to be too perturbed by the small decline in applications for primary phase courses, balanced as it is by the increase in applications for secondary courses. Offers in both mathematics and physics are at their highest November levels since recent records began to be collected for that month in the 20106/17 recruitment cycle.

One swallow does not a summer make, as the saying goes, but these numbers can allow the government to produce some positive headlines. Whether they will be justified in view of the big increase in candidates with the designation as from ‘Rest of the world’ is something that will need careful watching. However, it could have been worse; but not much.

At these levels there is a lot of work to do to make the 2024 labour market anything like a comfortable proposition. 2023 will, of course, be a real challenge for school needing to recruit teachers in many different curriculum areas.

New NfER dashboard

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It is always interesting when large organisations validate comments made on this blog. The new NfER dashboard of historic data about teacher shortages certainly support the view of this blog that schools with high Free School Meals percentages may have more teacher turnover in recent years. Explore by school type – NFER

Interestingly, they also support the higher teacher turnover in London, noted by this blog from time to time. This dashboard is a useful addition to the data about teacher supply, but it does fall into the category of statistical information and not up to the minute management information. TeachVac, the job board for teacher vacancies that I help found has concentrated on the position here and now and linked it to data such as the ITT census and applications for training.

In the next few weeks, I will be putting together the reports on vacancy trends during 2022 for classroom teachers and school leaders after what has been a record-breaking year for vacancies. These annual reports should be available early in January 2023.

I hope as NfER update their dashboard that they will take into account the effects of the covid pandemic on the labour market for teachers.

If I have a quibble, the recent NfER document that cited the North East as an area of teacher shortage doesn’t seem to be borne out by the maps at district level. Only a handful of North East authorities recorded over 10% turnover of secondary teachers where as most inner London authorities breached that level. That outcome is what I would have expected from the TeachVac data on vacancies.

The only authorities where primary sector turnover exceeded 10% in 2020 were in Yorkshire and the Humber region, and not in the North East. Still, perhaps the survey returns for the earlier study could not be compared with this dashboard.

The subjects with the lowest leaving rates according to the dashboard as physical education and history: no surprises there. However, among early career teachers, physics was the subject with the third lowest departure rate after those two subjects. Perhaps when numbers entering ITT are low, those that do enter are the most committed to teaching as a career?

The presence of modern languages teachers and IT teachers at the top of the table is also probably not much of a surprise given their opportunities to use their skills elsewhere.

Those interested in the topic can thank NfER for producing data that the DfE really should provide as part of open government. Hopefully, this week the DfE will provide the data about applications to ITT in November. Last year, the data appeared on the 8th December.

More ITT census data

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London appears to have fared better than the rest of England in terms of the percentage decline in trainee numbers. That said, there isn’t yet time to investigate any a regional breakdown by subject.

Postgraduate new entrants by region
2021/222022/23Decrease in trainee numbers% Decline
South East4,4293,039-1,390-31%
Yorkshire and The Humber3,2242,368-856-27%
West Midlands3,2512,417-834-26%
South West2,1771,679-498-23%
East of England2,4991,932-567-23%
North East1,178935-243-21%
East Midlands2,0951,666-429-20%
North West4,3453,473-872-20%
London6,8955,715-1,180-17%
England30,09323,224-6,869-23%
Source ITT Census

Since some parts of the South East region already have limited access to trainees in some subjects, the overall decline in trainee number sin that region must be of concern.

Of more interest to schools is the likely open market numbers after removing those on the high Achievers (Teach First) programme and on apprenticeships or the salaried route where the trainees may be committed to a particular school. Assuming that 5% of the remainder don’t end up in state schools for any one of a number of reasons; this may be an underestimate in some parts of the country, the ‘free market’ pool of trainees likely to be looking for a September 2023 teaching post looks something like the following table

SubjectOpen Market
Mathematics1467
English1214
Modern Languages600
Biology495
Physics366
Chemistry644
Physical Education1295
Other387
Design & Technology372
History950
Geography523
Computing304
Art & Design440
Religious Education249
Music228
Drama304
Business Studies164
Classics52
Source TeachVac analysis

Should this table be anywhere near correct, then there will be shortages in many subjects from quite early in 2023. As mentioned in the first of this series of posts, schools might do well to ensure that they can retain staff. Paying large sums to try to recruit teachers may just be a wate of money.

Although all ethnic groups have seen a decline in trainee numbers since 2019, the decline has been most obvious in the ‘White’ group where there are around 5,000 fewer trainees this year compared with 219/20. Most other ethnic groups have seen only a small decline in trainee numbers since 2019.

Ethnic Group2019/202020/212021/222022/23
Asian2,8403,3782,8622,752
Black1,0541,4271,1591,027
Mixed8561,060900820
Other346495447406
White22,21026,32421,56317,394
Source ITT Census

Part of the reason for the decline in ‘White’ trainees may be the reduction in the number of trainees needed for the primary sector where this group has dominated in certain parts of the country.

More worrying is the loss of young graduates coming into teaching. These are the potential leaders of tomorrow. Although undergraduate numbers are up; postgraduate numbers are nearly 800 below their pre-pandemic level

Aged under 25
2019/202020/212021/222022/23
Postgraduate Total14,56417,45515,73612,281
Higher Education Institution7,5619,2527,9096,351
School Centred ITT1,6932,2092,1982,012
School Direct (fee-funded)3,5914,3044,2092,709
School Direct (salaried)578540255205
Postgraduate Teaching Apprenticeship3776225193
High Potential ITT1,1041,074940811
Undergraduate4,4175,4485,5115,350
Total18,98122,90321,24717,631
Source ITT Census

Higher education seems to have bene most affected by this decline in interest in teaching among new graduates and those in the early years of their careers. This year, the number of men entering teaching as graduates fell to 7,155 well below the 9,229 of 2019/20.

As I commented in the two previous posts today about the ITT census, these are challenging numbers for the government and very worrying for schools.

More on the ITT census

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It is a fair comment to say that comparing this year’s data on trainees with last year doesn’t take into account the covid pandemic effect. Because it could well be so, I have looked back at trainee numbers reported in autumn 2019, before we had ever heard of the term covid, and compared those trainee numbers with the current ITT census

2019/202022/2322/23 compared with 19/20
SubjectPostgraduate total new entrants to ITTPostgraduate total new entrants to ITT
Biology1,937664-1273
English2,9071,762-1145
Geography1,317656-661
Modern Foreign Languages1,387726-661
History1,4601,134-326
Mathematics2,1591,844-315
Religious Education494341-153
Computing472348-124
Physics527444-83
Classics7158-13
Chemistry770758-12
Music312301-11
Design & Technology43345017
Drama29432935
Business Studies18523247
Art & Design41347865
Physical Education1,2811,405124
Other282426144
STEM Subjects5,8654,058-1807
EBacc Subjects13,0078,394-4613
Non-EBacc Secondary Subjects3,6943,962268
Primary12,21610,868-1348
Secondary16,70112,356-4345
Total28,91723,224-5693
Source DfE ITT census

The good news is that six subjects recruited more trainees this year than in 2019/2020, providing a total of 432 additional trainees in secondary subjects to offset against the more than 4,500 fewer trainees in other key subjects. Now, some of the reductions may be due to changes in targets in popular subjects, but with over recruitment still possible it is difficult to see why providers would take that approach.

The chaos that is science recruitment continues, with biology providing nearly 1,300 fewer teachers this year. Do we need a ‘general science’ category, and for all science trainees to receive similar bursaries if that is still the favoured route to attract new teachers?

The decline in trainees in English, so that there are this year fewer trainees this year than in mathematics and more than 1,000 fewer than in 2019/20, must be of concern as must be the collapse in Modern Foreign Languages trainees, especially if we are to remain a trading nation, not only with the EU, but across the world. Whatever happened to Mr Gove’s 5,000 Mandarin teachers?

Is it good news that the decline in design and technology and business studies has stopped or should we still be worried that the decline has been arrested at such low levels?

The decline in primary trainee numbers must partly reflect the decline in the birth rate and the expected continued decline in the primary school population. Nevertheless, this sort of overall number may cause some local staffing issues for the sector unless the trainee numbers are well spread across England to meet the needs of all primary schools.

There may be a glimmer of good news in the fact that non-Ebacc subjects fared better than Ebacc subjects over the period. Might this be providing a portent of a change in the overall labour market that with the coming recession might meant that this years’ numbers really were the bottom of the cycle? The first set of applications data should provide clues for the 2024 recruitment round when the DfE issues them; hopefully next week.

ITT disaster

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Congratulations to the DfE. The ITT Census of trainees published this morning Initial teacher training: trainee number census 2022 to 2023 – GOV.UK (www.gov.uk) shows a lower percentages of trainees this year compared with last year in every secondary subject except design and technology. In that subject there was an increase from 23% of target to 25% this year.

These trainee numbers are grim news for secondary schools that will be looking to recruit teachers for September 2023, and January 2024. Retention of existing staff must be high on the agenda for school leaders.

Even if all trainees were to complete their courses, and want to work in state schools, there would only be 444 physics teachers entering the market. Allow for in-course wastage and a proportion working either in private schools or Sixth Form Colleges and there may only be around 300 or so looking to work as physics teachers next September in State Schools.

Even in history and physical education, where over-recruitment to target continued again this year, actual trainee numbers appear to be down on last year, with a combined loss of around 600 potential teachers.

Overall, just 59% of secondary target places have been filled this year, even after taking the over-recruitment into account. Physics, as predicted by Jack Worth at NfER and suggested by this both reached only 17% of target.

Modern Foreign Languages slumped from 71% 0f target last year to just 34% of target this year. Even biology, usual a banker for good recruitment in the sciences only managed 85% of total this year.

What should the DfE do now? The bursary scheme isn’t working, and is inefficient and difficult to market. Perhaps it is time to revert to offering a salary during training to all trainees allowing them to build-up pension credits and making career switching more attractive. Some decisions must be taken, otherwise the levelling up agenda is dead in the water as far as schools are concerned.

More later as the whole dataset is reviewed.

Teaching staff ratios worsens in secondary sector

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The DfE has published the latest Education and Training Statistics for the four nations of the United Kingdom. As education is a devolved activity, each nation choses how to use its funds in its own way. The remainder of this blog refers to outcomes in England. Education and training statistics for the UK, Reporting Year 2022 – Explore education statistics – GOV.UK (explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk)

The largest expenditure item in schools is staffing, with teaching staff taking the largest share of that budget. One measure over time of the trend in that spending is the Pupil Teacher Ratio (PTR). The ratio allows for changes in pupil numbers are well as in funding. When pupil numbers are falling but funding increasing, PTRs sometimes fall – i.e. show an improvement as there are then fewer pupils per teacher. In the primary sector, this is sometimes talked about in terms of class sizes, but such a measure is less useful in the secondary sector, so allow for comparisons in trends, PTRS are a more useful measure.

At present, pupil numbers in the primary sector are in decline, whereas they are still rising across the secondary sector as a whole. This is reflected in the trends in PTRs.

PTRs for school sectors in England
2017/182018/192019/202020/212021/22
NurseryEngland21.922.823.521.823.4
PrimaryEngland20.920.920.920.620.6
SecondaryEngland15.916.316.616.616.7
SpecialEngland6.26.26.36.26.3
Total MaintainedEngland17.918.018.218.018.0
(1) In England, special schools include pupil referral units.
(2) In England, the primary pupil-teacher ratio includes local authority (LA) maintained nurseries.
Source DfE November 2022

Primary school PTRs remained constant in 2021/22 compared with the previous year, whereas in the secondary sector they continued to worsen, reaching their worst aggregate level since before 2016/17. The small number of state-maintained nursey schools came under the greatest pressure, with their PTR almost returning to the record pre-pandemic level recorded in 2019/20.

Most of the remainder of the data are for the United Kingdom as a whole, and not dis-aggregated into the national levels. Across the United Kingdom as a whole, Expenditure on education in real terms increased by 5.4% from Financial Year 2020-21 to Financial Year 2021-22. Expenditure on education as a percentage of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) decreased by 0.2 percentage points.

Later today, the Chancellor, in his autumn statement, may well announce cuts to the education budget in England. Any significant cuts to revenue funding will have repercussions for the 2023/24 data when it is published later in the decade. PTRs may well worsen significantly, especially if teachers are offered a pay increase anywhere near the current rate of inflation.

However, past experience in previous ‘hard times’ has shown that schools do everything to protect teachers’ jobs and will first cut everything else in the budget to the bone. Today, a MAT in Oxfordshire has made that clear Oxford and Abingdon schools face choice of heating or teaching – BBC News My guess is, as she picture shows it will be the heating that is cut and not the teaching.

Are schools offering permanent posts?

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What type of tenure is on offer in teaching vacancies posted during the autumn term? Research by TeachVac www.teachvac.co.uk reveals big differences between the primary and secondary sectors in the type of tenure on offer this autumn.

TeachVac classifies vacancies into one of three groups: Permanent positions; temporary positions or posts arising from maternity leave.

The data is collected from vacancy adverts posted by schools on their web sites.

From the start of September 2022 up to 14th November: an arbitrary date with no other reason for selection than that I am writing this blog on the 15th November, the data collected was as follows.

Classroom Teacher posts
PrimaryMaternityPermanentTemporaryTotal
Sep-224916113261428
Oct-224328384271697
Nov-221694603761005
1092190911294130
SecondaryTotal
Sep-2255426781843416
Oct-2255330352673855
Nov-2227616481782102
138373616299373
Grand Total24759270175813503
Source TeachVac

Two facts stand out. The secondary sector advertised more vacancies than the primary sector, and there was a difference in tenure of advertised vacancies between the two sectors. This is obvious if the actual numbers are converted into percentages

Classroom Teacher posts
PrimaryMaternityPermanentTemporary
Sep-2234%43%23%100%
Oct-2225%49%25%100%
Nov-2217%46%37%100%
26%46%27%100%
Secondary    
Sep-2216%78%5%100%
Oct-2214%79%7%100%
Nov-2213%78%8%100%
15%79%7%100%
Grand Total18%69%13%100%
Source TeachVac

Less than half of the posts advertised in the primary sector have been permanent positions, compared with 79% of vacancies in the secondary sector. Maternity leave vacancies are also much higher in the primary sector than in the secondary sector, accounting for a quarter of all vacancies in the primary sector and a third of the September vacancies.

Despite the downturn in the birth-rate nationally, primary school teachers are still it seems taking time out to raise a family. However, the downturn in pupil numbers across the primary sector must be affecting school budgets, because pupil numbers are an important element of school-funding these days. With any teacher leaving at Christmas for maternity leave not likely to return until January 2024, many schools may not be certain of their school rolls, and hence funding, beyond the summer of 2023.

With the Autumn Statement on Thursday, and the data from the recent NAHT Survey of schools, it seems likely that more schools will resort to temporary appointments in the future as they consider their budgets going forward.

Past experience from the time of the Geddes Axe of a hundred years ago and the recession of the late 1970s and early 1980s suggests that class sizes will increase and teacher numbers decline, if funding is again put under pressure, although that outcome needs to be balanced by the number of teachers quitting the state-school sector.

In the past, when there were fewer graduate posts across the economy, a recession meant unemployed teachers. This time the outcome may be different between the primary and secondary sectors, with more unemployed primary school teachers than amongst their secondary sector colleagues unless there is a change in funding arrangements.

Middle Leaders: harder to find? Part 2 – geography

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In the previous post I considered some of the evidence about the vacancies for promoted posts in geography and whether there were issues that were becoming more challenging. The evidence seems to point to the fact that post-pandemic, and especially in 2022, recruitment has become more of a challenge.

The question discussed in this post s whether the challenge affects schools across England as a whole or is confined to certain regions.  Evidence from previous studies of the market as a whole have indicated that schools in an around London fact more significant recruitment challenges that schools located further away from the capital and its large graduate labour market.

The evidence for promoted posts in geography where there the data shows a strong presumption of a re-advertisement is shown in the table.

Schools with re-advertisements
RegionsNumberAll Schools% with re-adverts
London499685.1%
South East299833.0%
East England207092.8%
West Midlands96081.5%
Yorkshire & The Humber64401.4%
East Midlands55021.0%
North West46440.6%
North East12640.4%
South West25370.4%
Total12556552.2%
Source TeachVac http://www.teachvac.co.uk

The evidence from the table would seem to confirm the presumption that schools in London and the Home counties do indeed find recruiting teachers of geography for positions related to promoted posts with TLRs or other allowances related to the job title than schools elsewhere in England. This holds true even after taking into account the number of secondary schools in the region covered by TeachVac at the present time. However, overall re-advertisement rates are not high even in London, although they may well be on the increase.

The further away from London a school is located, the less likely it has been to need to re-advertise a post in geography with a TLR or other allowance attached. The difference between schools in London and those in either the North East or South West is stark.

The previous posts discussed the issue of the growth of re-advertisements during 2022, and it would seem that schools in and around London have been most affected by the increase.

The next piece of evidence to consider is whether schools with lower-than-average scores in 2022 on either Attainment 8 or Progress 8 are more likely than schools with better scores to re-advertise a promoted post in geography? As an alternative, the percentage of pupils with Free School Meals might also be considered, but the current cost of living crisis may make that indicator less reliable as a proxy for school performance.

One implication of this study is that the operation of the housing market in relation to public sector salary scales may be important when teachers can move form high-cost areas to this with lower housing costs, but not in the opposite direction.