Category Archives: economic

Silly Numbers

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The last time that I saw teacher recruitment in the state it is in 2023 was just over twenty years ago, at the start of the current century. Since TeachVac www.teachvac.co.uk was established, some eight years ago, we have been keeping weekly records of the number of vacancies against the ‘free pool’ of possible new entrants from ITT courses not already working in a school. The methodology hasn’t changed, although it is the direction of travel rather than the actual numbers recorded each year that is really of relevance.

Now we are hallway through the main recruitment month for classroom teacher vacancies for September appointments, and with the coronation weekend out of the way, it is possible to make some assessment of the 2023 recruitment round. One factor that is new this year is the incidence of strike action, and the associated uncertainty of the outcome of the pay dispute.

However, the key message seems to be that while recorded vacancies continue to increase, when compared with the same week in 2022, the increase is not as great as witnessed last year. Indeed, much of the problem with recruitment may be down to the collapse in ITT numbers in some subjects rather than an absolute growth in vacancies.

Interestingly, business studies and design & technology, the two real shortage subjects, seem to have found a ‘floor’, and although still the worst subjects in terms of vacancy rates in relation to new ITT entrants, the situation is these two subjects is no worse than last year, and trending by the end of term to become slightly better than last year. Perhaps schools have given up the unequal struggle of trying to recruit such teachers.

Good luck to schools recruiting between now and January in all secondary subjects, because it will become an increasing challenge. Perhaps now is the time for some discussion about the most cost-effective, and also effective from an education perspective, means of sharing out our scarce teaching resource.

Although TeachVac benefits from the cash spent on recruitment, we spend part of the income identifying the parts of England where there is less interest in teaching posts, and supply is especially challenging if measured by interest in vacancies. There are certainly parts of England where despite the ITT reforms there are not enough ITT places to meet demand and where interest from outside the locality is limited, either because of high property prices or a lack of perception of the area as an interesting area in which to work.

The news this week from the Bank of England that the UK will avoid a recession isn’t good news for teaching. So long as salaries remain depressed; working conditions challenging and morale low, teaching will not attract the graduates it needs, especially if either the private sector is hiring graduates or individuals can take the risk of setting up their own businesses.

With the falling pupil numbers in primary schools, now may also be the time to look at offering primary trained teachers struggling to find teaching posts work with Key Stage 3 pupils. However, that would need some degree of organisation that the system still lacks. MATs with all-through schools may be able to identify how such teachers can be most effectively used. Perhaps there is room for a small-scale research project?

Is the job boom for teachers ending?

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After three months of record numbers of vacancies for teachers being recorded by TeachVac www.teachvac.co.uk April saw something of a slowdown in the pace of advertised vacancies. No, there wasn’t an overall decline compared with the record set for April in 2022, but the rate of increase, as the table makes clear, was less then during the first three months of 2023. Nevertheless, the monthly total of 8,557 was a new record for the period since 2018, the year when TeachVac first started analysing monthly trends in vacancies.

201820192020202120222023
January358248186497207962697807
February301041746318389646289056
March42156185681160391051612289
April477760224432511084618557
May632778454375674114211
June22233296188627955968
July6129085807051812
August377390287315794
September17722718195629604711
October25693745223231315106
November23052897197733925063
December13822090121421773112
Source: TeachVac www.teachvac.co.uk

There may have been special factors restricting the number of vacancies in April this year. The holiday period always has an effect on the April vacancy numbers and this year there may have been an effect due to the industrial action affecting many schools.

The interesting question is what will vacancies be like during May in 2023? Traditionally, May is the peak month for classroom teacher vacancies in the secondary sector. It is too early to predict what will happen in 2023, and the effect of the coronation and the extra bank holidays in addition to the hardening of the industrial unrest in the profession might affect the profile of vacancies this month.

Nevertheless, schools do need to be fully staffed for September, and there are fewer new entrants than in recent years, as this blog has pointed out in recent posts. Should serving teachers decide to quit, in greater numbers than last year, for whatever reason, then vacancies will remain buoyant. But, should the effect of the cost-of-living crisis and increased rents and mortgages in particular deter teachers from leaving, especially if they think that in doing so, they might miss any one-off payment for back pay, then perhaps the 14,000 recorded vacancies of May 2023 might not be bettered this year.

Within the overall national picture there are examples to be found of both significant increases such as for IT teachers in London, although that was balanced by a decrease in demand for such teachers from schools across the South East. Maths teachers were in demand in the North Wet, but not in the North East during April, and Science teachers were wanted in the Yorkshire and The Humber region, but less so in the West midlands than in April 2022.

Demand for primary classroom teachers was weak in April. Leaving aside the special circumstances of April 2020, the recorded vacancies were the lowest seen since before 2018 across England as a whole, with demand across the South East being especially weak this April.

Anyone interested in more granular data by local authority or other filter is welcome to ask for a special report from TeachVac www.teachvac.co.uk Prices are reasonable and include a breakdown by state and private schools as well as by academies and maintained schools.

The reality of the teacher recruitment crisis

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Thanks to the DfE reopening the data files on teacher numbers and the calculations behind the need for increased targets it is now possible to ask some more interesting questions about teacher supply.

Two key ones are: what percentage of new entrants should we expect to enter the Further Education Sector and what percentage should we expect to take teaching posts in private schools and tutoring establishments? The DfE should have access to this data from the profiles of ITT providers.

However, there is some sector-wide evidence in the data associated with the Teacher Supply Model in the tables of the percentage completing ITT and percentage employed in state schools that can go some way to addressing these questions.

SubjectCompletion %Entering Employment %2022 offers2022 ITT Census minus TFCensus as % OffersEntering Employment Based 2022 on census
Primary9168 10,582  
 Mathematics897020481,67982%1175
 Biology907368456683%413
 Chemistry897284970383%506
 Physics846453240376%258
 Computing896241932979%204
 English927616461,44788%1100
 Classics9759645891%34
 Modern Languages936280865781%407
 Geography926861657293%389
 History93711144103290%733
 Art & Design936656547885%315
 Business Studies926324218677%117
 Design & Technology937444442896%317
 Drama946738432986%220
 Music916628725890%170
 Others946548442688%277
 Physical Education97631543140591%885
 Religious Education927234029386%211
 Secondary total   12,356 7733
Source: DfE and TeachVac

Completion rates used by the DfE vary from just 84% in the already small cohort of physics trainees to 97% in both Classics and physical education. Percentages entering employment range from 74% of design and technology trainees to 59% of classics trainees and 62% of computing trainees. Physics, with an employment rate of 64%, has a percentage that is little better than computing.

In calculating the number of trainees in the 2022 ITT Census – minus Teach First trainees, as they are already in the classroom – I have assumed the same base level as a starting point as for completion rates as for employment rates. If the percentage entering employment were of the percentage completing, the totals for the latter would be lower.

So, where are the missing 145 physics trainees? Undoubtedly, the largest number are teaching in the private sector; some will be lecturing in Sixth Form of other Further Education colleges and some won’t have entered teaching at all. A few might have decided to work in schools outside of England.

I suspect that the influence of the private sector on these numbers is best seen in the data around classics. The Census recorded 58 trainees, with just 59% entering employment in the state sector. That’s just 34 teachers. With the target for 2023/24 cut to 25, if ITT providers stuck to the target and didn’t over-recruit, it is entirely possible that there would be no Classics trainees available for the state school sector for September 2024.

Now, many may not weep about the loss of classics as a subject, although a cogent case can be made for its retention by those that support it. Fortunately, in history and physical education, where targets have been reduced, low employment percentages may owe more to the over-recruitment against the previous targets than a warning of teacher shortages. However, the contribution of these teachers to the staffing of other subjects may cause other problems for the staff creating timetables for schools in September 2024.

Collateral damage to religious education, where the employment rate of 72% produce a total of only 293 new entrants, is one obvious likely outcome if history numbers are restricted to anywhere close to the 2023 target.

As these numbers haven’t been adjusted for either apprenticeships or the School Direct Salaried scheme, they may well still be slightly too high to represent reality in terms of the ‘open’ labour market.

How they are spread out across the country, is a whole different set of issues that perhaps the Select committee might like to delve into as part of its discussions with the Secretary of State.

High Achievers and ITT outcomes for 2023

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In my previous post I mentioned that I didn’t know whether or not the High Achiever programme numbers were included in the ITT overall targets. By delving into the methodology section, it seems that they are.

As Teach First has had a good record of meeting its targets, I have reworked the data for April offers to add in the assumption that all High Achiever places will be filled.

Subjectoffers April 23% of targetHigh Achievers % of Targetwith High Achievers
Art & Design30036%0%36%
Biology48746%11%58%
Business Studies14212%3%15%
Chemistry46139%6%45%
Classics48192%0%192%
Computing23220%4%24%
Design & Technology30114%2%16%
Drama19665%0%65%
English127342%11%53%
Geography52035%5%40%
History63980%8%87%
Mathematics119941%9%50%
Modern Languages70324%5%29%
Music15620%4%24%
Others28012%0%12%
Physical Education1249170%0%170%
Physics36113%3%16%
Religious Education17927%5%32%
Total872633%5%39%
Source: TeachVac www.teachvac.co.uk

The final column shows my assumption about the percentage of places that are currently filled based on current offers plus all High Achiever places. On this basis, assuming all of those offered a place turn up at the start of the course, and offers continue to be made at the same rate as in previous years, targets won’t be met, but there might be a slight improvement over last year.

The qualifications around the difference between ‘offers’, some of which are conditional, and outcomes, means these figures are only indicative. I will try and find time to compare the final offer total from last September with the ITT census number as that will provide an indication of ‘drop-out and no shows that could be factored into the totals.

However, it is possible to say with almost 100% certainty that targets won’t be met in many secondary subjects again this year even if target numbers hadn’t been increased.

With the addition of graduating students from degree programmes, it is likely that primary output will be more than sufficient to meet the needs of the sector. Whether these new entrants will be where they are required is another matter.

Bit late for ITT targets

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The DfE has finally published the ITT targets for courses starting this autumn. Postgraduate initial teacher training targets: 2023 to 2024 – GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)  In addition, they have also supplied details of the Teacher Supply Model that allows the workings behind the calculation of the targets to be discussed. This is a welcome return to open government after a few years of limited information on the thinking behind the numbers.

Two points arise from the announcement. Firstly, it is incredibly late in the recruitment round. For most subjects that fact won’t matter because the targets aren’t going to be met. But what will happen in Classics and physical education where there are currently more offers than places in the target? Will potential trainees have their offers withdrawn? Will providers recruit over target, and will there be any consequences for doing so? Will the DfE look at overall recruitment by a provider rather than on a subject-by-subject basis?

The DfE’s decision may well influence how providers approach the business of making offers in future rounds. Historically, these targets were issued in the autumn so that providers knew their allocations before they had started to make many offers. Such an approach is much more sensible than announcing the target after Easter, more than half-way through the recruitment cycle. In the past, there were also indicative targets for future years. This helped providers manage their workforce planning.

The more alarming feature of these targets is the addition of the under-recruitment from earlier rounds. I have addressed this issue before. Schools do not start each new year sending children home because they couldn’t recruit enough teachers. They botch, by recruiting those teachers that they can, and adjusting the timetable and the underlying curriculum to fit the staff they have recruited. There are as a result not the vacancies there were in the training cycle.

Suppose there was an unexpected economic slowdown because of US bank failures and teaching suddenly recruited to these new targets? Would these additional trainees find jobs in 2024. The answer is we don’t know because the demands on school funding, especially for staff costs are not yet known, but it would seem unlikely. So, if a school has employed a biologist to teach physics and were offered a physics teacher for 2024 would they sack the biology teacher? Or let the physics teacher wait for an opening to arise?

Adding unfilled places to future targets has been tried in the past, and didn’t work. I am surprised to see it being used again this year.

As a result of the increase in targets in many secondary subjects – and it isn’t clear whether these targets include Teach First numbers or not – the April offer numbers represent only a small fraction of the DfE’s target number in many subjects, as the data in the table reveals.

SubjectOffers as a % of target
Business Studies12
Others12
Physics13
Design & Technology14
Computing20
Music20
Modern Languages24
Religious Education27
Total33
Geography35
Art & Design36
Chemistry39
Mathematics41
English42
Biology46
Drama65
History80
Physical Education170
Classics192
Source: TeachVac www.teachvac.co.uk

History and drama may well meet their targets, but all other subjects probably won’t. Will the DfE add any shortfall on these targets onto those for next year, making the totals even higher and harder to achieve?

Finally, how will these target numbers play out with the newly accredited providers? Are the institutions going to take the extra numbers or might the loss of some providers be a matter for regret?

Warning signs on ITT recruitment

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The DfE is holding a webinar for teachers looking for a job this afternoon. I suspect that it may well be full or primary teachers and trainees, plus some history and PE teachers. Anyone else still looking for a teaching post for September either has only just started or may need more than a webinar to help them find a job. TeachVac www.teachvac.couk along with other services does offer one to one advice sessions.

However, based upon the applications data for 2023 postgraduate courses released today, the DfE might be better advised chasing up more applicants for next year. April can be a tricky month to assess the status of the applications round for any year because of Easter and other faith festivals. However, some trends are becoming clear.

The increase in applications, as reported previously, is being driven by an increase from those recorded as from the ‘rest of the world’. Thus, of the 2,601 recorded increase in applicants compared with April last year, some 2,014 are shown as from ‘rest of the world’.

The danger is that this increase is masking some worrying trends. The number of applicants under the age of 25 continues to be below the number recorded last year by around 400 applicants, or more than 2%.

More concerning are the nine secondary subjects where offers are at their worst level since before 2016/17. Of the other secondary subjects, most are still below the offers at April in the 2020/21 cycle. Only geography and design and technology are back to offer levels in earlier years. For geography it is the best April since 2018/19, and for design and technology, the best since 2016/17, although even at the current level the target won’t be met for this year.

The sciences and modern foreign languages are the subjects where the greatest improvements in offers can be identified. So, perhaps the bursary and scholarships are making a difference. However, there is not the data to see the extent to which these extra offers are being made to ‘home students’ or those from overseas.

The increase in applicants is significantly affecting universities, faced with nearly 8,000 more applications so far this round: a 20% increase in workload. The total number of applicants rejected has increased from 3,727 in April last year to 5,612 this April. Nearly 300 more applicants have also withdrawn their applications.

Another worrying sign is the decline in applicants domiciled in London and the South East regions where demand for teachers is always the highest.

Unless there is an increase in home applicants over the next couple of months this round is beginning to look as if the outcome will be grim for providers trying to fund courses with limited numbers of students, and for schools seeking teachers in September 2024 and January 2025.

Hopefully, the resolution, when it comes, of the pay and conditions dispute between the teaching associations and the government will include provisions to encourage more graduates to choose teaching as a career. Paying their fees might be a useful concession.

Filling a vacancy for a teacher of physics

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Last July I wrote a post about how many teachers of physics might start work in state schools in September 2022. As that post still receives views, I thought that I would update my projection for September 2023, based upon the DfE’s ITT Census of last autumn.

The ITT Census revealed that there were 444 trainee physics teachers studying on all routes on course and programmes that commenced in the autumn of 2022. Some 59 of these are on salaried schemes. That was less than one fifth of the DfE’s target number required to staff our school system.

41 on the High Achievers programme – presumably mostly Teach First

  4 on Postgraduate Apprenticeships

14 on the School Direct Salaried programme

That means there were 385 trainees on other routes into teaching, with 300 of those divided between higher education providers and SCITTs. The remainder being on the School Direct fee route.

Allowing for a non-entry rate of 5%, as a result of either not completing the course; entering teaching in an independent school or the further education sector such as in a Sixth Form College, this leaves a possible 350 physics trainees job hunting in 2023. If the non-entry to maintained schools increased to 10% of the cohort, and physics has had lower entry rates in the past than some subjects, the job seeker numbers would be reduced to 315 in total.

Up until the 18th April from 1st January 2023, TeachVac www.teachvac.co.uk has recorded 668 specific advertisements for teachers of physics. I am sure that there will also be some other schools that have together posted the 5,384 science teacher vacancies that were really seeking a physics teacher.

This suggests that trainees will be scarce on the ground. Of course, trainees are not the only source of teachers to fill vacancies. There are returners and those switching between schools. Assuming these groups total the same as the trainee number, with the 5% reduction, this might make a total of 700 job seekers for the 668 distinct physics vacancies already advertised and the share of other vacancies where physics was a key component of the job description.

It seems likely that any school seeking a teacher of physics that attracts no interest via a job board such as TeachVac might well need to consider the worth of spending cash on using a recruitment agency. A no find: no fee approach would be the best for a school, but challenging for agencies. However, agencies can also look abroad to see whether there might be teachers overseas willing to fill the school’s vacancy. However, I would think it sensible for a school to ask for proof of success rates before engaging any high- cost agency to fill their teaching vacancy.

If filling vacancies for September will be a challenge, finding a replacement for a January 2024 vacancy for a teacher of physics might well be nigh on impossible for the vast majority of schools. Hopefully, not many schools will be faced with that situation.

Could everyone study mathematics to 18?

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Are there enough teachers of mathematics to allow all 16-18 year olds to be taught the courses required by the Prime Minister? Not surprisingly, the teacher associations state that in the middle of a teacher recruitment crisis then there certainly are not enough teachers. Are they correct?

Well, as a famous radio personality of the 1950s once said, ‘it depends upon what you mean by’. In this case it depends upon what you mean by a teacher of mathematics? The first problem is that those in the 16-18 year old age-group divide into four: those in the school sector; those in further education; those in apprenticeships or other work environments and finally the NEET group, not in employment, education or training for one reason or another. Some of these, such as the small group in custody could receive some maths education, but most, by the nature of the category, would be outside any scheme.

However, let’s concentrate on the school sector. Could adding perhaps two hours a week to the curriculum of those in Years 12 and 13 be staffed? The obvious answer is that yes it could be. After all, any teacher can be required to teach any subject to any year group while QTS (Qualified Teacher Status) remains just that, a certification to teach, not a curriculum limited certification as I have long advocated. Additionally, academies don’t even need to employ staff with QTS, so they could hire retired engineers or undergraduates from a local university interested in earning a bit of cash to support their studies.

With the Oak Academy, schools might just sit the students in a room and show them pre-recorded learning modules, especially if no assessment was required at the end of the course. After all, discipline shouldn’t be an issue with this age group that are still in schools.

Of course, schools would expect some more funding from the government for putting on more courses, even if they reduced other teaching hours so as to keep programme levels at the same overall package length for students.

The government has been developing strategies to improve the teaching of mathematics in schools with more maths hubs and CPD available, that will have made a difference to the skill set of the teaching force, but probably only a small impact.

More importantly is the number of new teachers, where there are far fewer in training than in recent years.

2013/142014/152015/162016/172017/182018/192019/202020/212021/222022/23
2125217024502545245021742145279226711834

The ITT Census number of 1,834 is by far the lowest for over a decade. With STEM subject trainee numbers also being lower, there is support for the position being taken by the teacher associations.

Even if the mathematics was in fact statistics and problem-solving father than pure mathematics, it seems likely that there would not be sufficient teachers to staff any normal method of delivery. Might this be a time to consider the use of technology in delivery of the curriculum?

Merry-go-round of Ministers has repercussions

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I am grateful to freelancer and former TES journalist, Adi Bloom, for this interesting fact

Between the start of July and the end of October last year [2022], there were four new education secretaries, as well as a succession of junior ministers. And, between them they held 133 events labelled “introductory meeting to discuss the organisation following the ministerial reshuffle”.

This paralysis no doubt was replicated across government. Adi has written a witty piece on her LinkedIn page about the current Secretary of State’s possible icebreaker meeting with the key trade union (professional association) general secretaries of the teacher groups that readers might with to search out. In passing, I wonder whether Secretaries of State ever hold such meeting with trade unions representing the non-teaching staff in schools that now outnumber teachers?

Anyway, the essential point is whether this rapid turnover of ministers may have contributed to the government’s challenges over public sector pay. Might a Cabinet with more experience of their department, running to more than a few days tenure, have anticipated the implications of public sector pay review bodies controlling pay rises each year and a rapid an unpredicted increase in inflation better than seems to have been the case.

Might ministers, such as the Secretary of State for Education, that had been in post for some time, and thus more secure in their portfolio, have both had better relations with civil servants in order to have been able to ask questions about pay policy and recruitment and retention of the teacher workforce and have struck up some sort of rapport with teachers’ leaders? Possible as a scenario, but unlikely I grant you, but impossible with such a rapid turnover of minsters?

Much must also depend upon the character of the individual as Secretary of State, and their willingness to create inter-personal relations with key players in the education landscape. The absence of the Secretary of State from the ASCL conference, plus a relative lack of appearances in the media raises the question as to whether the present incumbent of the top job at Sanctuary Buildings isn’t one for the limelight. Some that have held the office or Secretary of State have enjoyed the public nature of their role while others, were rarely seen in public, and their stewardship goes largely unremembered.

We have now entered that phase of the life of a parliament where it becomes more of a challenge to create policy, except in areas where ministers have direct control. Intermediaries can now drag their feet secure in the knowledge that a general election is likely to be no more than 18 months away, and that the present government isn’t likely to be returned with the same majority as a present, even if it is returned at all.

Equally, ministers can leave difficult decisions to their successor to deal with. It’s worth recalling that under the coalition’s fixed term Parliament Act there would have had to have been an election this year. Perhaps the current Prime Minister might use that as an excuse for an autumn election is next month’s local elections are really frightful?

London secondary school to close this summer

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Falling rolls have caused the closure of a secondary school in South London. Despite much of the country still battling with increasing pupil numbers across the secondary school sector, a London secondary school has announced its closure at the end of the summer term.

The statement on the school’s website states that;

The Southwark Diocesan Board of Education, Multi Academy Trust (SDBE MAT)

Due to the significant and ongoing challenges with falling pupil and application numbers in schools across London Local Authorities and the London Borough of Lambeth, and after considerable review subject to a listening period, it has been proposed to close The Archbishop Tenison’s Secondary School, Oval by the end of the academic year (August 2023).  

We understand the importance of continuing education for the students impacted by this decision and are working closely with parents, the school and colleagues at Lambeth Council, who are in the process of providing offer details for pupil placements in the academic year 2023-2024.

This closure will not be the last school closure, and raises important questions, including how soon after the unified admissions date for September entry should any closure be announced? Indeed, should closures be announced ahead of the general admissions date, and a hard date set by the DfE beyond which no state school will close for the following school-year and will be supported, if necessary, by special funding?

There are always issues with examination years and at least in this case:

The priority is for the current year 10 to have as minimal amount of disruption as they move into their final year of GCSEs as possible. The year 10’s will move as a bulk class to St Gabriel’s College which will match the curriculum and recruit some key staff from ATS to support the transition. Year 10 families are entitled to parental choice and to select a different school but we would encourage the move to St Gabriel’s College as it will support the GCSE offer that young people are already studying.

This suggests that planning had been taking place in the background. Fortunately, as this is London, there should be minimal extra transport costs as TfL picks up that bill across the capital.

However, what is the role of The Regional School commissions – this is an academy? The local authority – that much maligned democratically elected body that it seems still plays an important part in state education – and in this case the diocese?

The Diocesan Board of Education has issued a statement including the following;

As one of the longest established schools in London with a rich history of provision in Lambeth, Archbishop Tenison’s leaves behind a great legacy of achievements. Our hope is that students will go on to receive a continued, strong, and positive local education in a ‘good’ OFSTED school.

 The Rt Revd Dr Rosemarie Mallett, Bishop of Croydon and Chair of the Board of Education said: “We hope that every family, every child and every staff member will know that we are praying for them, the situation and for flourishing going forward into the future.”

I am not sure if there is a word missing before ‘flourishing’, but perhaps this is an example of a more secular society shunning church schools. However, it may be the fate of an 11-16 school rated inadequate by Ofsted at their last visit that has succumbed to market forces and been squeezed out of existence by the workings of parental choice in an area with multiple alternative choice of schools and a good transport network.

The London Evening Standard newspaper, where I picked up this story predict that

In an attempt to avoid school closures, Lambeth Council is reducing places at a number of primary schools in the borough from next year and intending to merge eight schools. But the council has limited control over what secondary schools in the borough do, as most are academies like Archbishop Tenison’s and outside of local authority control.

This is, therefore, a warning sign for the DfE that some sensible planning needs to be put in place in a system where many but not all schools are academies and some rationalisation of the system will be needed because of falling rolls and budget deficits as schools struggle to stay open and spend ever more on marketing to attract a declining number of pupils.

Either make all schools academies, and control the distribution of schools at the DfE or give local authorities planning control over all admissions and a say over the number and distribution of schools to meet local needs. Inaction is not an option, especially in urban areas with a plethora of small unitary authorities whatever their actual titles.

Archbishop Tenison’s School – Home (tenisons.com)

South London school forced to shut because it doesn’t have enough pupils (msn.com)