Despite this week being a holiday period for most people, the DfE has published the data about ITT applications up to 19th December 2022. This is the second monthly set of data about applications for 2023 courses. While December is still too early to be certain about the outcome of the recruitment round, it is now possible to see the strength of the interest in teaching as a graduate career at the start of the recruitment round.
The headline is that as far as offers are concerned most subjects have made more offers that at this time last year, but generally fewer than in December 2020. However, some subjects such as religious education, computing, drama, history and physical education have made fewer offers than in December 2021. For history and physical education, the number of offers is probably not of concern since traditionally both these subjects over-recruit against any DfE number supplied for the Teacher Supply Model. For the other subjects, the lack of offers this early must be of some concern since they failed to reach expected levels last year, and the mountain is now looking even steep to climb during 2023.
The total number of applicants by 22nd December was 12,897 compared with 12,310 on the 20th December 2021. This year the applicants generated 33,688 applications compared with 32,016 at December 2021. It is welcome that both these numbers are up this year, but the increase is not enough to suggest that there will not be concern about meeting targets during 2023.
More worryingly, only 196 applicants have been ‘recruited’, although the number of candidates with ‘conditions pending’ is similar to the number in December 2021. Fortunately, the number of candidates that have received and offer and are yet to respond is up by several hundred on the December 2021 figure.
The total number of applications for secondary courses is up on December 2021, by around 2,000 while the number of applications for primary courses is down by nearly a thousand to 14,500. More disturbingly, the number of unsuccessful applications for secondary courses is up from 8,377 in December 2021 to 9,654 this year. Some of these applicants may still find a place though the Apply 2 route later in the recruitment round.
More than 10% of candidates this year are classified as having applied from ‘the rest of the world’. The increase in this group masks the fall in applicants from London; the South East and the East of England regions. As these three regions are the parts of England struggling most to recruit teachers, the loss of potential candidates for 2023 is a matter of concern although applications to these regions are higher than last year, possibly boosted by the increase in overseas applicants.
Applications from candidates age 22, probably recent graduates or those graduating in 2023 are slightly down, applications from most other age groups are at similar levels to last year.
Higher Education courses remain buoyant, with all other types of courses also recording more applications. Of the 196 applicants so far ‘recruited’, 181 have been recruited by higher education providers to their courses.
Two swallows don’t make a summer, and two months data may not represent the rest of the application round, but, unless there is a significant upturn in applicants to secondary courses during the first eight months of 2023, the outlook for courses in autumn 2023 will not be much better than the dismal numbers recorded in the recent DfE ITT Census for courses that started in autumn of 2022. Such an outcome would imply another challenging labour market for secondary schools in 2024 that is unless school funding for future pay awards was such as to drive down demand for teachers to cover the increased pay awards.
Earlier this autumn I was asked to prepare a lecture for Oxford Brookes University. Sadly, it was never presented for a variety of reasons. So, for any reader of this blog that would like a longer than normal post to read over the holiday period, I have published the text of the lecture below.
Best wishes for the holiday season to all my readers and thank you for the continued support of this blog.
Brookes Autumn Talk 2022
Teacher Supply in Oxfordshire – does the market model work?
Thank you for once again inviting me to talk to you about my special subject: the labour market for teachers. Last time, I started with history, this time I thought I might concentrate on geography. More specifically, the geography of Oxfordshire, its schools and their need for teachers and school leaders to staff them and what implications this might have for policy makers, were they willing to listen.
First, a bit of background. As many of you know, the government has always had a key role to play in managing the supply of teachers to schools through its grip on the teacher preparation market.
The DfE’s Teacher Supply Model tries to predict how many teachers need to be trained each year in order to ensure a sufficient supply of new teachers to provide staffing for schools across England. The Model is a national model, and does not consider regional differences.
Another drawback of the DfE’s Teacher Supply Model is that it doesn’t consider the backgrounds of entrants to ITT. Are they undergraduate; recent graduates; career changers or teachers from overseas requiring QTS to be fully accredited to teach in England?
Some of you may recall the Carter Review and its look at ITT. In my submission to that Group, I made the point that now all those considering teaching were from the same backgrounds or stages in their careers:
So, consider these individuals thinking about teaching as a career: (Blog 23rd June 2014)
Jane is a recent graduate, age 22, with an upper second degree in modern history. Since GCSE she has studied no history pre-1472. She wants to teach history in a secondary school.
Kevin is a 28-year-old policeman who is looking to change careers to work with young people in a positive way. He has a lower second-class degree in forensic science, and wonders what he might teach in the secondary sector
Helen is a 35-yearold mum with two school-age children. She has a degree in physics, and since the birth of her own children she has volunteered a day a week at a local primary school. She is interested in teaching children at Key Stage 1.
Wayne is studying for his ‘A’ levels in media studies, photography and theatre studies. He is 20 and had a chequered history as a teenager, but now wants to become a teacher and put something back into society.
Of the four all have different needs, and some are better served by the present routes than others.
Jane would have the option to select from the two School Direct routes, (assuming that the Salaried route is still operational) a higher education course, a SCITT course or Teach First. As history is a popular subject, attracting more applicants than places, she might be told by some course providers to acquire some experience of schools in a voluntary capacity before being considered. If she applied after Christmas for courses starting in September, she would probably find her options severely limited. In most cases she would find herself having to pay another set of tuition fees to study unless she was lucky enough to be accepted on either the Teach First programme or to find a School Direct salaried place.
Kevin has a degree that doesn’t fit a National Curriculum subject, so would either need to find a means of enhancing his subject knowledge or find a provider that felt he had enough science to be accepted onto a course. However, since the government split the sciences into the separate subjects of Physics, Chemistry, and Biology, the general science courses that might have accepted him have largely disappeared.
His work experience might count in his favour, especially if he had worked with young people, but his chances might depend upon when he applied. If he applied early in a recruitment round, he might fare badly as providers might expect more suitable candidates with better subject knowledge would apply later in the recruitment round.
However, if, later in the round, applications were sluggish, he might fare better, especially if he interviewed well. He would not be eligible for Teach First, but would receive some financial support if he trains to teach a physical science subject. However, he would be looking at a sizeable reduction in pay for at least a year while training even if he found a School Direct salaried place.
Helen wants to teach children at the younger end of the primary school. Although Helen has a Physics degree that isn’t likely by itself to put her near the front of the queue because currently there is no requirement for providers of primary training to consider recruiting a balance of candidates with different subject backgrounds.
Assuming Helen has the basic GCSE qualifications required much may depend upon what point in the recruitment cycle Helen applies and her three choices of provider.
Although she may not have studied any arts or humanities subjects for more than half her lifetime that probably won’t matter. She will receive basic training during her course. The time she has spent as a volunteer may help her be accepted if the head provides a good reference.
Wayne has selected ‘A’ levels that limit his chances of becoming a secondary school teacher because there are few training places to teach drama, media studies or photography, even if he achieves the required degree with a minimum of a lower second.
He could consider becoming a primary school teacher, and either enrols on an undergraduate degree leading to QTS or takes a subject degree and then competes with other graduates for one of the places, perhaps on an Apprenticeship.
He would be well advised to undertake some youth work either as a part of his degree course or as a voluntary activity as this might strengthen his chance of being accepted. It is unlikely that he would have a degree in a subject acceptable to Teach First, and there is a strong chance that he would have to pay fees and take out a loan to support his living costs through his training.
As the range of degrees available at universities becomes ever more diverse, so the link between the higher education experience and the needs of schools in terms of curriculum delivery becomes ever more decoupled. This may not seem to matter for much of the primary sector, where direct curriculum knowledge may not be required, but even at that level a need to understand the fundamentals of a subject may be important in both teaching it well and also in helping other teachers to deliver the subject as well.
Nationally, the recruitment campaigns are generic and don’t focus on any particular groups in society. Should they take these different motivations into account and should the DfE consider these issues when deciding upon the operation of the Teacher Supply Model?
I might add that the DfE has thought about issues around race, gender and disability in terms of teacher recruitment ever since 1997.
Summary of final year postgraduate trainee outcomes for the 2020/21 academic year
Percentage awarded QTS
Percentage of those awarded QTS teaching in a state school
Age
Under 25
90
72
25 and Over
86
73
Disability
Declared
81
68
None declared
88
73
Ethnic group
Asian
81
64
Black
78
65
Mixed ethnicity
86
72
Other
82
66
White
89
74
Gender
Male
84
71
Female
89
73
Source DfE
I find this table deeply disturbing in many ways, but we don’t have time today to do more than note that to belong to a minority group seems to be a challenge when finding a teaching post in a state school.
Anyway, after that digression, back to our main thesis about the labour market for teachers and the working of the Teacher Supply Model.
After taking into account flows out of teaching to other careers; to retirement or other non-work situations, such as a career break; or in a small number of cases death, the Model looks at the number of possible returners and those switching from part-time to full-time or in the other direction.
Trends in pupil numbers also need to be factored into the Model along with any possible policy changes affecting teacher numbers, such as when the Key Stage 1 maximum class size policy was introduced by David Blunkett. These days, such policy changes are rare. More challenging to predict is how schools will use their budgets, and the modelling process largely ignores this variable when considering teacher numbers and how they will change. This is an interesting area for debate, especially at the present time when schools are more financially challenged than for many years.
Because policy changes often cannot be predicted., especially as with the Key Stage 1 maximum class size rule the policy often comes after a change of government. The Teacher Supply Model must inevitably be forward looking, and even if there is no change of government, Ministers are often unwilling to flag policy changes too far in advance for party political reasons.
The Teacher Supply Model currently being discussed by the DfE will apply to the number of teacher preparation places in 2023/24 and will not impact upon the labour market for teachers until September 2024.
Because the Model is a national Model, and is created by statisticians, its role is to provide overall numbers for the primary sector and numbers by selected subjects for the secondary sector.
Herein lies another issue. What constitutes a subject? For any years, Science was a subject, as Modern Languages still is. The Model created a total for science teachers needed. The science community argued for many years that there was a need for separate totals for Biology, Chemistry and Physics with an apparent lack of concern for any other ‘science’ subject. Eventually, the DfE agreed and total for each science were created.
The unintended consequence of this move was to limit the number of biologists recruited into teaching and thus to reduce the overall number of science teachers in training. We only have to look back at Kevin with his forensic science degree to debate the wisdom of a lack of any ‘general science’ route into teaching. This is one for the science community from the Royal Society outwards to re-visit.
I think that is quite enough background on the Teacher Supply Model. Let’s now move to the real world from the abstract discussions, important though they are, about overall numbers.
Of course, if those numbers, whether called allocations, targets or by some other name, are not met then schools may find recruiting teachers more of a challenge.
Whose responsibility is it to meet that challenge?
The government
Higher education
Schools?
Without a coherent strategy to either avoid or deal with any shortfall of teachers, it will be pupils that eventually feel the consequences though curriculum change, larger groups or being taught by less than adequately equipped teachers in terms of the teacher’s knowledge and backgrounds regardless of whether they teach early years or KS5 physics.
The government can gain relief when pupil numbers reduce, usually following a sustained fall in the birth rate, as we have seen recently after the big increases of more than a decade ago.
Chart of pupil demography
Relief may also come from more returners than normal and fewer departures from the profession whether for career breaks or to other forms of employment.
For the purpose of illustration during the rest of this talk I will be concentrating upon the secondary sector. This is partly because there are fewer issues in the classroom teacher market for the primary sector, although I acknowledge that following the recent re-accreditation exercise the future is opaquer than it has been in the past.
Before looking at the current position in terms of recruitment in Oxfordshire across the secondary sector during 2022 it is worth noting that the national ITT position for this year based upon the comparison of trainee numbers with classroom teacher vacancies for a range of secondary school subjects.
Subject
1/1/22 – 30/9/2022
History
44%
PE
23%
Art
12%
Geography
-157%
Languages
-108%
English
-57%
All Sciences
-84%
RE
-108%
Mathematics
-45%
Music
-96%
Computer Studies + IT
-137%
D&T
-583%
Business Studies
-313%
The chart is created by matching the number of trainees in the DfE ITT census for 2021-22 with the number of vacancies recorded by TeachVac during the 2022 calendar year starting at 1st January. The chart records the position in terms of the remaining ITT pool at Friday 30th September. The remaining pool is arrived at by reducing the ITT number by one trainee for every two vacancies since the DfE data suggests that around a half of classroom teacher vacancies each year are filled from the trainee pool.
Negative numbers indicate more vacancies than there were trainees. There are, of course, issues with the methodology, since vacancies that are re-advertisements may legitimately be included, but repeat advertisement should not be taken into account.
Only in history, PE and art were there still positive numbers at the end of September and art is likely to turn negative before all the January 2023 vacancies are filled.
To put the data into context. Here was the ITT Census data from last December.
2013/14
2019/2020
2020/21
2021/22
Percentage of Target at census date
%
%
%
%
Mathematics
86
65
84
95
English
136
110
127
118
Modern Languages
85
64
74
71
Biology
163
189
117
Physics
42
45
22
Chemistry
67
80
105
Physical Education
138
105
135
164
Other
57
82
25
Design & Technology
45
42
75
23
History
150
115
175
199
Geography
100
118
130
86
Computing
63
75
105
69
Art & Design
136
62
132
140
Religious Education
82
94
128
99
Music
97
80
125
72
Drama
157
Business Studies
88
53
102
45
2021 ITT Census – DfE
Looking at both primary and secondary total the following picture emerges
2013/14
2019/2020
2020/21
2021/22
All Secondary
98
83
106
82
Inc TF
Inc TF
Inc TF
Primary
99
94
130
136
Inc TF
Inc TF
Inc TF
What is noticeable, is the effect of the covid pandemic on recruitment into teaching as a career. There was a significant bounce in interest about teaching as a career after the pandemic struck in March 2020 that saw an increase in applications to train as a teacher. However, it was short-lived and did not continue into the recruitment round for courses that stated in the autumn of 2021 for the secondary sector, although trainee numbers remained above target in the primary sector.
It is worth recalling that there was talk of significant failures in the economy, and teaching always attracts more applicants when the economy and the wider labour market is faring badly.
So, now let’s look at Oxfordshire and the local labour market for teachers before finally considering the relationship between local demand and supply of new teachers into the labour market.
Frist, the primary sector. This table is for vacancies for classroom teachers with No TLR attached. Basically, an entry level grade
Oxfordshire Classroom teacher vacancies January to September 2022
CLASSROOM TEACHER – NO TLR
INDEPENDENT
STATE
TOTAL
% INDEPENDENT SECTOR
PRIMARY
32
348
380
8%
I am surprised how low the percentage is, so, what about the secondary sector? For ease of comparison, TeachVac groups subjects together into a number of larger units. This partly because the range of titles used by schools when recruiting is so vast that it is unhelpful for the purpose of analysis to use the whole range when they can be reduced to a smaller number of composite groupings.
SECONDARY SCHOOL CLASSROOM TEACHER VACANCIES NO TLRS
SUBJECT GROUPS OXFORDSHIRE
Independent
State
TOTAL JANUARY TO END SEPTEMBER 2022
% INDEPENDENT SECTOR
BUSINESS STUDIES
42
9
51
82%
SEN
12
8
20
60%
SOCIAL STUDIES
35
35
70
50%
LANGUAGES
23
25
48
48%
ART
9
10
19
47%
ENGLISH
44
56
100
44%
IT/COMPUTING
21
27
48
44%
MATHEMATICS
52
76
128
41%
SCIENCE
79
116
195
41%
DANCE
7
11
18
39%
PE
11
21
32
34%
HISTORY
9
20
29
31%
GEOGRAPHY
10
25
35
29%
HUMANITIES
4
11
15
27%
MUSIC
4
18
22
18%
VOCATIONAL
1
5
6
17%
RE
3
23
26
12%
D&T
4
63
67
6%
Grand Total
370
559
929
40%
On average, across Oxfordshire, the independent sector was responsible for 40% of the vacancies for classroom teachers advertised during the first nine months of 2022. The percentages range from 82% of basic grade vacancies in business studies, to just 6% of vacancies in Design and technology. Interestingly, the independent sector percentage for Business studies reduces to 71% if you add in posts with TLRs.
The list of schools advertising for business studies is interesting
School
Independent
State
Total
Cranford House School Trust Limited
8
8
d’Overbroeck’s
4
4
Faringdon Community College
1
1
Kings Education (Oxford)
7
7
Lord Williams’s School
2
2
Magdalen College School
1
1
Matthew Arnold School
1
1
Oxford International College
3
3
Oxford Sixth Form College
6
6
Shiplake College
7
7
St Clare’s, Oxford
1
1
The Bicester School
2
2
The Oratory School
5
5
The Oxford Academy
1
1
The Warriner School
1
1
Wheatley Park School
1
1
Grand Total
42
9
51
This is for Main Grade posts. Add in TLRs and the picture changes slightly.
School
Independent
State
Total
Aureus School
3
3
Cranford House School Trust Limited
8
8
d’Overbroeck’s
6
6
Faringdon Community College
1
1
King Alfred’s
3
3
Kingham Hill School
2
2
Kings Education (Oxford)
7
7
Lord Williams’s School
2
2
Magdalen College School
1
1
Matthew Arnold School
1
1
Our Lady’s Abingdon
4
4
Oxford International College
3
3
Oxford Sixth Form College
6
6
Oxford Spires Academy
3
3
Shiplake College
7
7
St Clare’s, Oxford
1
1
St Edward’s School
1
1
The Bicester School
2
2
The Cherwell School
1
1
The Oratory School
6
6
The Oxford Academy
1
1
The Warriner School
1
1
UTC Oxfordshire
2
2
Wheatley Park School
1
1
Grand Total
52
21
73
Maybe the State sector is more alive to market conditions in this subject than some independent schools that have placed multiple advertisements to try to appoint a classroom teacher in this subject.
In passing, it is worth noting that the DfE records 41 state secondary schools in Oxfordshire and 47 schools in the independent sector, although that total does contain both special schools and sixth form colleges as well as schools serving the primary age-group of pupils. Nevertheless, the number of secondary schools in the independent sector in Oxfordshire is not far short of the number of state secondary schools, although the number of pupils is many fewer. However, that number is offset by the extra demand for teachers to staff the smaller classes normally found in the private sector schools.
One feature of the private sector schools in Oxfordshire is the number of boarding schools across the county. Boarding schools are as likely to cater for students from outside the United Kingdom and as such form an important part of the education export market by attracting foreign currency earnings. In additional to the ‘normal’ type of school, there are also tutorial colleges offering specific courses often for ‘A’ level or other pre-higher education programme that will be looking to recruit from the same pool of teachers as well as recruiting other non-teachers, such as graduate students to teach some courses.
So, there are more than 80 schools in Oxfordshire educating pupils of secondary school age, and together they have generated 929 advertisements for classroom teachers between January and the end of September. After allowing for re-advertisements and expectations for the coming three months, it seems likely that across the whole of 2022 there will have been a demand for around 1,000 secondary school classroom teachers in Oxfordshire.
As many of you know, the DfE has recently concluded a re-accreditation process for ITT. All three providers in Oxfordshire were listed by the DfE in the approved list.
The University of Oxford cites the number of places for 2023/24 as c184 on the PGCE in the following subjects
English
geography
history
mathematics
modern languages (French, German, Spanish, Mandarin)
religious education
science (biology, chemistry, physics).
The Oxfordshire Teacher Training Programme, based at the River Learning Trust does not provide data on trainee numbers. They state on their website that:
“We don’t advertise a specific number of places available for most subjects.”
The programme does cover a wider range of secondary school subjects than the University
However, I doubt that they would be able to make up the difference between the Oxford University provision and the demand from schools identified in the table I showed earlier as that might require them to train several hundred students a year.
I do not believe that Oxfordshire is unique in facing a significant deficit between the number of ITT trainees and the demand for teachers from secondary schools, but the scale of the problem may be more significant than in many other parts of the country.
One solution is the growing number of training providers that claim in their publicity, and their titles, to be ‘National’ in their training coverage. One such is the new National Institute of teaching formed, with government approval by a small number of MATs. They say in their publicity that
‘The NIoT is working with a network of Associate Colleges across the country. These successful groups of schools work with a wide variety of communities across the country’
I note that they have no presence in this part of England. However, this ‘nationalisation’ of training into fewer larger providers is a trend that will need watching.
Of course, both the independent sector and state secondary schools in Oxfordshire have the option to employ staff without Qualified Teacher Status. The term ‘teacher’ is not a reserved occupation term like ‘engineer’, ‘solicitor’ or ‘accountant’, so anyone may be called a teacher regardless of their background and qualifications.
Excess demand over supply causes other problems including a high level of spending on recruitment. There is also the issue of whether some schools either because of location or the characteristics of the school find recruitment more challenging than other schools?
There isn’t time today to delved deeply into that question, although I have written on my blog at www.johnohowson.wordpress.com about the issue of the percentage of free school meals pupils in a school and teacher recruitment.
There is no doubt that the high cost of accommodation in Oxfordshire has an effect of recruitment of teaching staff.
Can anything more be achieved to ensure schools, and especially state schools in Oxfordshire are able to recruit sufficient teachers in all subjects?
I doubt we will ever see the days again when local authorities and the Christian churches provided most of the training places for teachers and the then Ministry of Education issued an annual Circular on the number of new teachers each local authority could employ to ensure some degree of fairness at least at that level.
Indeed, it is not clear which organisation can speak on behalf of the needs of schools across the county for a dialogue about the need for sufficient teacher preparation places in Oxfordshire to meet the needs of local schools. Perhaps, the Schools Forum might take on the responsibility? I am also gratified to hear that the DfE Steering group might have a look at ‘cold spots’ in ITT. However, that raises another issue about the availability of school placements and whether those that train as teachers should be expected to work in state-funded schools? The answer to this was clear-cut when trainee’s fees were paid and there was a training grant for all. It is, perhaps, more complex now trainees bear a greater or lesser degree of the costs depending upon their subject or sector.
In conclusion, the failure to train sufficient teachers puts the system under strain. Oxfordshire, with a growing number of secondary schools and nearly as many private schools and tutorial colleges as state-funded secondary schools faces an interesting set of issues in terms of ensuring sufficient appropriately qualified teachers for all its schools.
The modified market model where places are allocated by central government, but schools and trainees compete for vacancies works better for some than others. To return to our four potential teachers, two, Jane and Wayne, can train and teach anywhere, but Kevin and Helen are more closely tied to their local area both for training and for employment. The system hasn’t taken their needs into account and I worry that following the re-accreditation process the needs of candidates have once again not been taken into account.
This lack of an overall policy towards the staffing of our schools as opposed to just predicting training numbers might matter less if sufficient trainees were recruited to fill the places on preparation courses. The fact that there has not been enough to satisfy the predictions of the Teacher Supply Model for several years, across many secondary sector subjects just make smatters worse.
I am conscious that in a university like Brookes, known for training teachers for the primary sector, I have spent most of my talk discussing the secondary school sector. That doesn’t mean that the primary sector isn’t important and monitoring its health is equally as important. However, demand for primary teaching posts at the classroom teachers level remains generally healthy, and the current tissues are mainly in the secondary sector.
I also haven’t had time today to reflect on either middle or senior leadership issues or on the issue of SEND and special school staffing. Perhaps, those could be the topic for another day.
It is time to wish the DfE Vacancy site all the best for the festive season. The DfE vacancy site is a good place to look for non-teaching posts: TeachVac doesn’t cover these vacancies at present, but is seeking to do so during 2023 using new investment funding. As of this morning, 37% of the vacancies on the DfE site were for non-teaching appointment, and a small percentage of the teaching posts were actually ‘job opportunities’ rather than stated jobs.
One non-teaching post that caught our eye, and illustrates the challenges such a site faces was posted by a selective school, although it could have been posted by any school.
Part-time – 30 hours per week, Mon-Fri, 8.30am-2.30pm, term time only (38 weeks). Some flexibility will sometimes be needed to alter hours for occasional school events.
Contract type
Permanent
Full-time equivalent salary
FTE £20623, with the opportunity to rise to £21879 depending on performance
Actual salary
£14266 (rising to £15135)
What skills and experience we’re looking for
We have an exciting opportunity to join our in-house kitchen team. You will be using your skills to prepare and serve food throughout the school day, so that we offer students a varied, wholesome and tempting balance of foods. This role makes a vital contribution to nurturing students’ life-long interest and independence in making healthy eating choices. We are looking for an individual who can bring good humour, strong communication skills, flexibility, and attention to detail to the kitchen.
The salary works out at £12.51 per working hour, and unlike most in the catering trade there presumably will be no opportunities for tips on top. With the present recruitment challenges in the hospitality area, good luck to the school that is also seeking housekeeping staff.
Eagle-eyed readers will have noticed that the limitation of the DfE site means that the job role appears under Learning support, cover supervisor or tutor – none of these classifications really fit the job description.
How does the 1,488 teaching vacancies on the DfE site compare with TeachVac today? The TeachVac counter is currently showing 3,834 teaching jobs, so more than double the DfE’s total. To be fair to the DfE they don’t include vacancies for teachers in private schools, and they may have different cut off dates for the length of time a vacancy is listed.
However, if you were a teacher job hunting which of the two free sites would you choose to register with? If you know which school you want to work in, and that school uses the DfE site, you can choose either site. However, if you have any degree of uncertainty, TeachVac has provided more opportunities.
Schools should note that in 2023 their jobs will only be matched if they register with TeachVac and pay an annual fee of £500 maximum for secondary schools, and £75 for primary schools, payable for new registrations from February 2023. Vacancies at other schools will continue to be logged, but not matched with candidates.
The staff at TeachVac, http://www.teachvac.co.uk where I remain as Chair, wish all readers the best for the festive season and we look forward to 2023; may it be a better year than the one just ending.
In a recent post I discussed the extension of QTS (Qualified Teacher Status) by the DfE to teachers from more countries. Of course, academies don’t need to employ people with QTS as ‘teachers’. However, most choose to do so as it can reassure parents and colleagues that those responsibly for teaching and learning and pastoral activities have undertaken approved training.
There is no established methodology for identifying how many additional teachers might by awarded QTS under the new scheme. The DfE provide three projections: high; central and low for a financial year. These projections are calculated by taking the most recent published data of QTS awards from currently eligible countries, and estimating the number that would be awarded from newly eligible countries. As the DfE does not hold data on the potential demand for QTS from newly eligible countries, DfE officials have derived the estimate using the relative split between ITT trainees that come from eligible and ineligible countries.
According to the DfE paper, in 2018-19, out of 28,949 total postgraduate trainees there were 1,496 final-year trainees taking ITT in England from countries that are currently eligible to apply for QTS through the TRA, and 550 from countries that are ineligible.
This means that for every one ITT trainee from a currently ineligible country, there were approximately 2.7 trainees from eligible countries. The central estimate of these projections is calculated by dividing the current baseline of Teacher Regulation Agency QTS awards by this ratio. Given the 1,684 awarded QTS in 2021-22, the additional number of QTS awards from previously ineligible countries is 619.
The DfE note in the paper that as a result of the uncertainty involved in these projections, these projections also include a high and low estimate. To calculate these different estimates, the eligible to ineligible ratio has been adjusted by increasing or decreasing the ratio by 50%.
For the low estimate, the ratio has been increased by 50%, to approximately 4.1 trainees from eligible countries to every 1 trainee from currently ineligible countries. At this value, 413 additional awards are projected.
For the high estimate, the ratio has been decreased by 50%, to approximately 1.4. At this value, 1,238 additional awards are projected.
At any estimate, these teachers would be a welcome addition to the supply of teachers in England, but there is neither a split between primary and secondary sectors nor any indication of the possible subject mix of such new teachers in the discussion about the potential new teachers. I assume that the Home Office will control the granting of visas in such a manner as to not allow more teachers in subjects where there is already sufficient supply.
However, there may well be teachers eligible for settled status due to familial ties that could result in an influx of new QTS teachers wanting to work in the primary sector in parts of the country where there are no current teacher shortages. However, these teachers will help improve the balance of teachers with QTS from different backgrounds, and that is to be welcomed. The fact that the DfE is prepared to extend the QTS scheme to more countries reveals the current state of play in the labour market for teachers in England at the start of recruitment for September 2023.
At this time of year, the DfE publishes data about the success of the education sector in generating income from exports. The income can be as a result of students from overseas – traditionally excluding EU students – coming to study in schools; colleges; universities or language schools. Set alongside that is the physical export of goods and services to customers in the education sector overseas. The latest data release covers 2020 and must, therefore, be considered an abnormal year because for much of that year the covid pandemic severely affected opportunities for income generation. UK revenue from education related exports and TNE activity 2020 – GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)
The recorded income for education exports in 2020 was some £25.6 billion pounds; up from £25.4 billion in 2019. To put those figures in some form of context, it was estimated that the Track and trace system for tracking covid possibly cost the government and taxpayers more than £30 billion over two years according to many reports on the web.
Higher education was the largest earners, responsible for £19.5 billionof export revenue. In comparison, Further Education, which consists of non-EU students only, accounted for £0.2 billion. The flow of overseas students into the further education sector these days probably doesn’t even warrant being called a trickle.
The income generated from Education Products and Services and Trans National Export activity was broadly similar, at around £2.1 billion and £2.3 billion worth of revenue generated, respectively. English Language Training and Independent Schools generated £0.5 billionand £1.0 billion, respectively. While the contribution from language training has been either static or declining in recent years, down from £2.23 billion in 2010 at current prices, income across the private school sector dipped from it record level of £1.05 billion in 2019, to £1.01 billion in 2020, presumably because of covid affecting the number of new registrations. On the other hand, TNE activity continued to increase, from £2.19 billion in 2019 to £2.28 billion in 2020.
Over the period between 2010 to 2020, the share of Higher Education to the total revenue from UK education related exports and TNE activity has increased by 16.3 percentage points from 60.0%to76.3%.
UK TNE activity increased by 2.2 percentage points over the same period from 6.7% to 8.9%. The share of English Language Training (ELT) and Further Education (non-EU students only) have both fallen by 12.2 and 5.2 percentage points, respectively: the ELT share dropping from 14.0% to 1.8% and the Further Education share dropping from 5.8% to 0.6%.
In 2020, international (EU and non-EU) Higher Education students at UK universities generated an estimated £18.0 billion in exports through living expenditure and tuition fees (£15.9 billion in 2019), which accounts for around 70.2% of the total value of education exports and TNE activity (62.6% in 2019). Overseas students are now clearly a vital part of the income stream for UK higher education institutions and have helped to cross-subsidise home students where fee levels have not kept pace with increases in costs.
The remaining £1.5 billion of exports revenue generated from Higher Education is made of research contracts and other exports income.
With the development of national programmes, such as the new Oak Academy, there must be scope to increase ethe income from experts within the education sector. Should overseas students decide to seek university places in other English-speaking countries and avoid UK universities, this might be of great concern to that sector and its funding.
Earlier this month I posted about the ITT Census of trainees published by the DfE. I noted in one post that it was necessary to remove from the ITT census those trainees not likely to be looking for a teaching post because they are already in a school on salaried schemes.
From the reduced total also needs to be removed a percentage for in-course wastage and a desire by some teachers to work outside of the state school system in either private schools or Sixth Form/further education colleges.
What is left is the free pool that might look for a teaching post anywhere.
Subject
Open Market
Mathematics
1,467
Physical Education
1,295
English
1,214
History
950
Chemistry
644
Modern Languages
600
Geography
523
Biology
495
Art & Design
440
Other
387
Design & Technology
372
Physics
366
Computing
304
Drama
304
Religious Education
249
Music
228
Business Studies
164
Classics
52
Total secondary
10,054
From the list it seems clear that there are unlikely to be enough new entrants to satisfy the demand for teachers by schools in 2023 unless there is a substantial pay rise for teachers or other demands upon funding dampen demand below the level seen in 2022. To some extent demand will be affected by the actions of teachers already in the workforce. Early retirement, plus income from tutoring and some ‘supply’ teacher work might look attractive to some teachers in the latter stages of their career and with enough pension rights to feel confident about leaving full time teaching.
At TeachVac www.teachvac. We help match teachers to vacancies that meet their needs. Price at just £500 per year for secondary schools and just £75 for primary schools TeachVac has made 2 million matches in 2022 from over 100,000 vacancies listed and our pool of teacher sis growing rapidly at the present time as teachers start to think about where and what they want to teach in September.
Schools signing up to TeachVac now, won’t be invoiced until February and thus need not pay until early March. By then, they may well have already received more than 500 matches that covers the annual fee making all further matches effectively cost free.
The article is in Pidgin, but easily readable by anyone that uses English as their everyday language. Michael Gove, when Secretary of State extended the right to QT from teachers qualified in certain counties including, Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Switzerland, and the USA. EU and EEA teachers had right of access under the free movement of labour rules while the UK was part of the EU.
The extension of the list raises interesting questions. The first is whether the Home Office, keen to reduce inward migration will offer visas to teachers from these countries before any arrival. No doubt teachers from Ukraine and Hong Kong, here as refugees will find the process of gaining employment rights easier than teaches from soe other countries on the list?
There is also the issue of whether taking qualified, and potentially experienced teachers, from other countries might affect teacher supply in those countries, especially if they too are facing teacher shortages either generally or in specific areas of the curriculum.
I also wonder why some other countries are not included on the list. There don’t seem to be any Caribbean States listed despite the high training standards for teachers that some such countries enjoy. Neither is the Indian Sub-continent and its various countries included.
It will be interesting to see how much difference widening the net will make to the 2023 labour market for teachers. As noted in the previous post, training to be a teacher in England seems like an attractive proposition for more applicants designated as from ‘rest of the word’ than in the past. Maybe teaching in England, despite the high cost of living as salary and working conditions teachers and not to mention the weather will see a boost in interest from nationals of the newly recognised countries for QTS; especially where they already have relatives living in England.
Indeed, there are nuggets of good news buried within the tables that regular watchers will discern. The sciences are doing better than last autumn, in terms of applications, as are shortage subjects such as design and technology and business studies. However, all this are relative, and the ‘better’ isn’t on a trajectory to make much of a dent in the shortfalls recorded in the recent ITT census of current trainee numbers; commented upon in three posts on this blog.
Overall, candidate numbers at the November count, are up from 8,831 in November 2021, to 9,557 this year. But, in the vital London and Home Counties regions of the East of England and the South East, candidate numbers are down slightly. This will be set of data to watch. Perhaps, more interesting is the contribution from candidates apply and classified as ‘Rest of the world’. Here candidate numbers are up from 589 to 1,209: more than double last November’s number.
The increase in candidate numbers is stronger among the older age groups and weakest among those of age 23; the only grouping to record a decline from last year’s number for November. As young graduates are the backbone of new entrants, the age profile of candidates will need watching carefully and, if necessary, the marketing mix adjusting to encourage more new graduates from the London area to consider teaching as a career.
Interestingly, applications from men to train as a teacher increased faster than those from women when compared with November 2021 data. Largely gone are the days of providers receiving a wall of applications for primary courses as soon as the recruitment cycle opens. Happy those still favoured with being able to make all their offers for these courses before the festive season and winter break.
Higher educations institutions seem to have borne the brunt of increase in applications. Perhaps affected by the increase in applications for those labelled as ‘Rest of the world’ candidates? Changes in applications for the other routes are too small to make any judgement, but will need watching carefully.
The government is unlikely to be too perturbed by the small decline in applications for primary phase courses, balanced as it is by the increase in applications for secondary courses. Offers in both mathematics and physics are at their highest November levels since recent records began to be collected for that month in the 20106/17 recruitment cycle.
One swallow does not a summer make, as the saying goes, but these numbers can allow the government to produce some positive headlines. Whether they will be justified in view of the big increase in candidates with the designation as from ‘Rest of the world’ is something that will need careful watching. However, it could have been worse; but not much.
At these levels there is a lot of work to do to make the 2024 labour market anything like a comfortable proposition. 2023 will, of course, be a real challenge for school needing to recruit teachers in many different curriculum areas.
TeachVac are now offering a FREE subscription, up until February 2023, if you register a school with TeachVac now! From February, TeachVac will invoice a yearly subscription of £1 per match with a ceiling of £500 for secondary schools and £75 for primary schools.
It is always interesting when large organisations validate comments made on this blog. The new NfER dashboard of historic data about teacher shortages certainly support the view of this blog that schools with high Free School Meals percentages may have more teacher turnover in recent years. Explore by school type – NFER
Interestingly, they also support the higher teacher turnover in London, noted by this blog from time to time. This dashboard is a useful addition to the data about teacher supply, but it does fall into the category of statistical information and not up to the minute management information. TeachVac, the job board for teacher vacancies that I help found has concentrated on the position here and now and linked it to data such as the ITT census and applications for training.
In the next few weeks, I will be putting together the reports on vacancy trends during 2022 for classroom teachers and school leaders after what has been a record-breaking year for vacancies. These annual reports should be available early in January 2023.
I hope as NfER update their dashboard that they will take into account the effects of the covid pandemic on the labour market for teachers.
If I have a quibble, the recent NfER document that cited the North East as an area of teacher shortage doesn’t seem to be borne out by the maps at district level. Only a handful of North East authorities recorded over 10% turnover of secondary teachers where as most inner London authorities breached that level. That outcome is what I would have expected from the TeachVac data on vacancies.
The only authorities where primary sector turnover exceeded 10% in 2020 were in Yorkshire and the Humber region, and not in the North East. Still, perhaps the survey returns for the earlier study could not be compared with this dashboard.
The subjects with the lowest leaving rates according to the dashboard as physical education and history: no surprises there. However, among early career teachers, physics was the subject with the third lowest departure rate after those two subjects. Perhaps when numbers entering ITT are low, those that do enter are the most committed to teaching as a career?
The presence of modern languages teachers and IT teachers at the top of the table is also probably not much of a surprise given their opportunities to use their skills elsewhere.
Those interested in the topic can thank NfER for producing data that the DfE really should provide as part of open government. Hopefully, this week the DfE will provide the data about applications to ITT in November. Last year, the data appeared on the 8th December.
John Howson 