Fewer than 400 physics teachers join state schools in 2021

If you train too many teachers in some subjects, then then a higher percentage won’t find jobs. That’s the message for government from the latest ITT completer profiles.  Initial teacher training performance profiles, Academic Year 2020/21 – Explore education statistics – GOV.UK (explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk)

Final year postgraduate trainee outcomes by subject for the 2020/21 academic year

SubjectTotal traineesPercentage awarded QTSPercentage yet to completePercentage not awarded QTSPercentage of those awarded QTS teaching in a state-funded school
Design & Technology66691%6%3%82%
Biology2,12286%8%6%78%
Music47892%3%5%78%
English3,22990%6%4%77%
Mathematics2,81287%7%5%77%
Geography1,20392%4%3%76%
Business Studies38187%7%6%75%
Religious Education65188%7%6%75%
Chemistry89986%8%6%74%
Secondary20,36589%6%5%74%
Physics54383%9%9%73%
Total35,37187%8%5%73%
Modern Foreign Languages1,65091%5%4%72%
Other39891%5%4%71%
Primary15,00685%11%4%71%
History1,67690%6%4%70%
Art & Design91990%7%3%69%
Computing62482%11%7%68%
Drama45592%4%4%67%
Physical Education1,59095%3%2%64%
Classics6990%9%1%52%
Source DfE

Of those awarded QTS, and not shown teaching in a state-funded school, this does not always mean that they have abandoned teaching as a profession, as they may still be in teaching either in a Sixth Form or FE college or in the private sector, either in England or elsewhere in the world.

However, it seems highly unlikely that 576 PE teachers are doing so, while just 108 design and technology teachers took the same route. However, it does seem possible and indeed likely that almost half the 69 Classics teachers trained at the public expense are teaching outside the state-funded sector. Apart from computing and classics, all the subjects in from Primary to the foot of the table are subjects where recruitment into training might have been close to or exceeded the DfE training number presumption from the Teacher Supply Model.  

Training teachers for the private sector may be a cheap price to pay if it relieves the State of the need to fund the education of pupils whose parents are prepared to pay for their education. Although there are other arguments against private education.

However, if the trainees that moved into the private school sector are either used to teach pupils from overseas or even more, now teaching is a global profession, they move to a school overseas to teach that is a net loss to the Exchequer. This is a point Mr Sunak might like to ponder following his reference to selective schools in the debate with Conservative Party members last evening.

Private schools may also account for the reason why physics had only 73% of the 500 or so potential completers working in state-funded schools. That’s less than 400 new teachers of physics for the state-school sector in 2020/21.

Disturbing profile data on new teachers

Yesterday, the DfE published its annual survey of ITT providers, through an analysis of their outcomes

Initial teacher training performance profiles: 2020 to 2021 – GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)

One of the most revealing tables in the report is reproduced below.

Summary of final year postgraduate trainee outcomes for the 2020/21 academic year

Percentage awarded QTSPercentage of those awarded QTS teaching in a state school
AgeUnder 259072
25 and Over8673
DisabilityDeclared8168
None declared8873
Ethnic groupAsian8164
Black7865
Mixed ethnicity8672
Other8266
White8974
GenderMale8471
Female8973
Source DfE

For every one of the groupings in the table, the minority group or groups seem to have fared less well than the majority group in terms of their percentage awarded QTS. Whether it is older trainees, trainees with a declared disability, males or those from a declared non-white background, the percentages gaining QTS are lower than for the comparator group. Interestingly, in most case the percentage of each group teaching in a state school is also lower, although older qualifiers marginally outperformed younger new teachers in terms of the percentage teaching in a state school at 73% compared with 72%

The disturbingly low percentage of ‘Black’ teachers gaining QTS continues. Only 78% of ‘Black’ trainees were awarded QTS, the lowest percentage in the table, and 11% points below the White trainee outcome for that much larger group of trainees. The government really should investigate why this discrepancy in outcome continues each year, especially as only 65% of ‘Black’ trainees awarded QTS were teaching in a state school at the time of the data collection.

Elsewhere, the demise of the undergraduate route is such that only 4,737 final year trainees were recorded, compared with 35,371 postgraduate trainees of whom nearly 19,00 were on school-led courses, with just over 16,500 on higher education led courses. What this balance will look like after the end of the current re-accreditation process is completed is an interesting question. With falling pupil numbers in the primary sector, it seems likely that the 40,000 trainees with QTS in these profiles will mark something of a high point.

The covid pandemic affected these data in two ways. Firstly, the pandemic created a one-year increase in registrations to train as a teacher, boosting the 2020-21 cohort of postgraduate trainees, and secondly, more trainees than usual may have extended their course and will have qualified later than normal due to the effects of the pandemic. Those late qualifications will have redcued some of the outcome percentages.

Although Teach First still uses that name for its band of training, the DfE has re-named its trainees as the ‘High Potential ITT trainees’. It would be interesting to understand the thinking behind this insult to other trainees and their providers. whether universities or schools?

Finally, there is some evidence to support the thesis that the distribution of training places may not be ideal. Only 62% of those awarded QTS in both the North East and North West were employed in state schools, compared with 76% that trained in London; 78% in the South East and 82% of those trained in the East of England. Since these three regions also contain a high percentage of the national total of private schools, this is an interesting outcome, and raises a key question about the use of resources across England.

Teacher vacancies and Free School Meals

Do schools with high percentages of pupils eligible for Free School Meals have higher staff turnover than schools with lower percentages of pupils on Free School Meals?

One of the advantages of TeachVac and the data it collects is that it allows questions such as that to be answered in ‘real time’. As the recruitment round for September is now in effects over, with the start of the summer holidays, it is an appropriate time to ask that question for the 2022 Labour Market.

This blog last considered this question in 2021 Free School Meals and staff turnover | John Howson (wordpress.com) at the end of May 2021.

This year, I have just looked at the data for vacancies from one ‘shire’ county for vacancies recorded by TeachVac between 1st January 2022 and 22nd July 2022, effectively the end of the summer term.

The secondary schools in the selected authority, mostly academies, were split into three groups: those with a Free School Meal (FSM) percentage of pupils up to 10% of roll; those with FSM between 10-20% of their roll and those with FSM over 20% of their pupils as reported by the DfE.

FSM percentageNumber of SchoolsRecorded vacanciesVacancies per school
0-9.9%1835920.0
10-20%1438727.6
20%+  628146.0
 Source TeachVac

The table doesn’t take into account school sizes, nor the additional demands of new schools increasing their staffing as pupil numbers increase. Even allowing for these factors, the trend seems clear. Schools with more pupils on Free School Meals as a percentage of all pupils in this local authority during 2022 tended to create more vacancies per school than schools with lower Free School Meal pupils. The DfE doesn’t have a consistent reporting point for FSM percentages, and schools may update their percentage during the school-year.

Also, some secondary schools may be better than others at persuading families to register pupils eligible for Free School Meals, and some schools, such as faith schools, may be more popular with particular types of parents. There might also be a gender effect, as there are both single sex schools and co-educational school with in the authority.

The difference between 16 and 11-18 schools is not an issue in this authority, as most schools are 11-18 schools. However, there are some very large schools, although they do not fall within the highest FSM band. At least one school was constrained to some extent by pupil numbers and budgetary considerations from making appointments, and their vacancy number might be considered low. However, as that school was in the highest FSM band, it might have increased the number for the schools in that band even more if it had needed and been able to recruit more teachers.

This data is based on classroom teacher vacancies. Later, I will look at the much smaller number of leadership vacancies to see whether the same trend is visible at more senior levels.

STRB misses the point?

There is a lot of good data in the STRB Report published yesterday. School Teachers’ Review Body 32nd report: 2022 – GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)

Sadly, most of it, as far as the teacher labour market is concerned, is based upon data collected by the DfE in November 2020 in the School Workforce Census, and thus relates to the labour market cycle of two years ago. Even if, when compiling the Report, the data from the November 2021 Census was used that was still from a previous labour market. As regular readers of this blog will know, the 2021-22 labour market for teachers has been anything other than normal in terms of demand for teachers.

The STRB has at least been able to use the ITT Census of 2021 that provided the data about the supply of new teachers for September 2022. Readers will find little in the STRB Report that hasn’t already been covered in this blog in relation to that data.

However, the Table on pages 49 and 50 of the STRB Report tells the story of this labour market in two simple charts regarding ITT recruitment; with history, PE and Art being the only secondary subjects where the supply of new entrants has been anything like at the level required to meet demand.

Interestingly, TeachVac today added art as a subject with a ‘red’ warning of shortages possible anywhere in England for January 2023 appointments. That just leaves PE and history as the two subjects where supply is still not yet at a level for a ‘red’ warning. PE might reach that level in the autumn: history, even with a contribution to humanities posts, almost certainly won’t. In view of the fact that almost double the number of trainees was recruited compared with the TSM figure that isn’t really a surprise. There is little problem with the primary sector labour market across most of the country.

The STRB Report is an interesting analysis of how the labour market responded to the sudden appearance of the pandemic just at the time when vacancies for September appointments were reaching their peak. Essentially, the market seems to have paused in 2021, and, as we know in 2022, there has been this surge of vacancies. As the end of term approaches, TeachVac has recorded not far short of 80,000 teaching vacancies across England so far in 2022, and more than 95,000 across the school-year as a whole.

The STRB has some interesting observations about leadership vacances, and the problems of recording trends when some posts in MATs are ‘out of scope’ to use the STRB terminology. However, as TeachVac has reported, there does not seem to have been any mass exodus of school leaders. This is despite the massive burdens placed on headteachers and other school leaders as a result of the pandemic, and the need to keep schools open at all times.

On pay, make of the Report what you will. I personally doubt that their recommendations for 2023/24 will last the test of time, especially if inflation continues to remain close to current levels and interest rates increase. With little new cash around for schools, it might be worth looking at the history books for how schools coped with the economic crisis of the late 1970s and early 1980s to see what might happen over the next few years. Although, back then, there was no spending on computers and other IT equipment.  

End of pupil boom in sight

The recent pupil projections issued by the DfE  National pupil projections: July 2022 – GOV.UK (www.gov.uk) show that the secondary school population is likely to peak at around school years 2024 or 2025 for England as whole. For some part of the country, notably the South East the date might be later, depending upon internal migration.

The DfE suggest that primary pupil number, including nursery pupils, will fall between 2022 and 2023, and by 2030 there will be 680,000 fewer pupils in the sector than in 2022; a reduction of approaching 15%. Even in the secondary sector, there is projected to be a small decline overall during the period 2022 to 2030.

Looking at these numbers, it is possible to see why there needs to be some consideration of the number of ITT places in the remainder of the decade. The secondary pupil numbers will decline through much of the second half of the 2020s and even though the primary sector fall is reducing by 2030, and the teaching workforce will likely be older than at present, demand for teachers under normal circumstance should be less than at present. Of course, what is normal and how any change in ITT provision should be managed are policy questions open to debate and alternative views.

But, with, it would seem in the present economic circumstances and the demands of the NHS, government funding unlikely to support any overall improvement in pupil teacher ratios and reductions in class sizes, the outcome is a need for fewer teachers unless some other aspect of the model changes. Factor in a low tax, high wage economy and the demand for teachers looks even less likely to continue at present levels.

The two unknowns are, firstly, whether an economic slowdown drives more teachers to stay put and returner numbers to increase and secondly, whether demand for graduates and for teachers from schools around the world will reduce the teacher workforce in England faster than expected just from the decline in the pupil population.

The DfE notes that the projection model published in 2021 estimated a school population of 7,269,000 in 2032, so the updated model shows a decrease of 354,000 on the total at the end of its projection period. The difference is primarily due to notably lower birth projections in the mid-2020 ONS national population projections, used for the first time in this set of pupil projections, which are the main drivers of the pupil population.

Next year the data from the 2021 Census will be fed into the ONS models, and, as a result, there might be some more significant changes to the outcome totals from 2028 onwards when the data are next published in July 2023. However, it seems unlikely that the changes resulting from the 2021 census will result in the demand for teachers increasing later in the decade. I suspect that there will once again be some regional analysis of school population trends that is missing this year.

Redcoats in the classroom

Redcoats in the classroom

by the late Howard R. Clarke

Published by Helion & Company

ISBN 978-1—91266-47-2

Part of the series From Musket to Maxim 1815-1914 edited by Dr Christopher Brice

The army and the first state funded schools in England. This review of the late Howard Clarke’s book I undertook for the Book Review section of the Journal of the Royal Army Historical Society’s summer edition of their journal. However, I thought that it might also interest some in education, not least for the light that it shines on when the State first started paying for the education of some children.

The best books are those that arise from the author’s love of the subject. Howard Clarke’s passion for education shines through what was sadly his last work. He did not live to see its publication.

Redcoats in the Classroom’, published by Helion & co, stands as a monument both to Clarke and to the pioneering work of the army in creating elementary education in that period of the nineteenth century when the State in Britain clung to the notion, as J S Mill put it in his book, On Liberty, that the State’s role was to see it citizens are educated and not to educate them itself.

The army took up the challenge of schooling long before Gladstone’s government finally introduced a defining role for the State in elementary education, with Forster’s 1870 Elementary Education Act. Indeed, many familiar with the history of the battle for universal elementary education in England, and the role of the State, will have to reassess their views following the publication of this book.

The 1830s no longer can be viewed as the beginning of State funding for schooling. The Army Order of 1811, and the associated vote of funds in 1812, predates the generally accepted date for the first funding for elementary education by a good two decades, albeit for a restricted group of children in society.

Although the schooling introduced by the army during the Napoleonic War with France was rudimentary, it was revolutionary in its own way by including not only the basic schooling for boys, but also for girls. These weren’t the Redcoats of the title, but their offspring. The Redcoats were for the most part the ‘schoolmaster sergeants’ employed to teach them.

Some initiatives established during a period of warfare don’t survive the cutbacks of the subsequent peace. Schooling in the army didn’t suffer that fate after 1815, although after its early start Clarke notes little innovation until well after Queen Victoria came to the throne and the beginnings of a scheme for the wider state involvement in schooling.

This review isn’t the place to discuss the religious question, and how it affected the development of schooling in England, but even the army wasn’t able to avoid the competing claims of Bell and Lancaster with their links to either the Established Church or to nonconformism. Scotland and Ireland, and the regiments and militia raised in those countries, had other issues in this respect.

The book is stronger on the history of education in Ireland than in Scotland, but both probably had a clearer local identity than was the case for many of the regiments of the army raised in England before the reforms of the late nineteenth century finally tied regiments to specific geographical areas.  The pragmatic solution of allowing children to miss the prayers of the first half hour of the morning was just one of the army’s decisions that has influenced education in England up to the present day.

The judgement in Walden v Bailey, curiously not included in the index, was important in shaping the balance between the education of children and the work of schoolmasters with soldiers. Had the judgment been in the other direction, I am sure that the education of children of serving soldiers might have been much less important than was the case until the end of the century and the recognition that army children in Britain could use the ‘state’ system but that there was still a responsibility to educate the children of troops serving overseas: as is still the case.

Readers will find this book heavy going in places. There is a complete absence of sub-headings that might have helped in some of the chapters, especially where the relationship of the educators to their work with soldiers as opposed to children is concerned. In passing, it is worth noting that a large proportion of those soldiers never wore the red coat used in the title.

Whether as a result of either the author’s untimely death or a cavalier attitude to publication standards doesn’t matter, but the poor attention to detail in the book goes beyond mere irritation into making it something of a challenge to read. The collection of the tables into an appendix would have prevented the mis-alignment between table numbers quoted in the text and the table actually under consideration, as occurred on page 294. However, more will be needed in any reprint to eliminate the myriad of missing spaces, confusion between the use of upper and lower case in the description of terms such as commissioners and other typological issues that occur throughout the book.

Despite these shortcomings, this book reveals the dedicated work of the author in researching many records of individual regiments, especially in the early nineteenth century when the schooling in the army was in its infancy. The latter part of the book relies more heavily on national reports and as such is more comprehensive, but less detailed at the regimental level, especially as garrison schools became the norm in larger centres in England.

The book is arranged chronologically, and this means that for each time period schooling in England, in India, and elsewhere in the world where there were troops garrisoned, are merged together, except for one chapter on India. A geographical approach might have made the book easier for the reader to follow, especially since the frequent movement of units caused great problem for the education of some children. Indeed, that is still an issue today, when soldiers are posted during the school-year.

The army, out of necessity not enlightenment, achieved in 1812 what parliament had failed to do during the previous decade, ensure state involvement in the education of at least some of its citizens. In uncovering this fascinating, but hidden area of early schooling, Clarke has created a book for both those interested in military history and those interested in the history of education in England.

Morale matters

Earlier this week the NHS as an organisation were awarded the Nation’s highest civilian award; The George Cross. This was in recognition of the huge efforts staff made, and indeed continue to make, during the on-going covid pandemic and the direct and indirect effects upon all the staff working within the service created as a result of the pandemic.

The award, created in 1940, sits at the top of the UK honour’s system joint with the military Victoria Cross and is the highest civilian gallantry award. It is given for acts of the greatest heroism or of the most conspicuous courage in circumstances of extreme danger.

NHS England chief executive Amanda Pritchard and May Parsons, a matron for respiratory services who delivered the world’s first Covid vaccination in December 2020, were presented with the award by the Queen at Windsor Castle.

This is only the third time the George Cross has been awarded to a collective body, rather than an individual. It was previously awarded to Malta in 1942 and to the Royal Ulster Constabulary in 1999.

Should some sort of collective thank you is also due to our schools, and those that staff them, for remaining open throughout the pandemic. A signed certificate for every school thanking everyone for their ‘service’ during the pandemic and signed by the Monarch as Head of State might not come amiss.

Using the Platinum Jubilee to create some Regis Professors of Education to celebrate both the 150th Anniversary, in 2020, of 150 years of State Elementary Education and its successive expansion into the present system, and in 2022, the 210th anniversary of state funding of the education of children for the first time would have been a nice gesture. Yes, I know that they were children of soldiers that were funded, and it was The War Office that paid for the education in 1812, but it was still the start of state schooling.

The 150th anniversary of the 1870 Education Act, as a milestone, disappeared in horrors of the pandemic, but should not be forgotten. The ‘thank a teacher’ movement has raised the profile of teachers at the individual school level, and since the Blair government more school leaders, but not classroom teachers, have received awards in the Birthday or New Years’ Honours lists. But, do we need to do more to raise the morale of the profession?

As an employer, I know the importance of motivation, and of saying thank you for working through trying times. I can award a bonus, something not really available to the public sector as a whole, especially in this time of fiscal challenge.

Morale, workload and pay are the three key areas that support the successful staffing of any organisation. Managing morale is the cheapest and most overlooked, possibly because it is difficult for politicians to seem genuine. But, missing key anniversaries is a sign that morale isn’t taken seriously enough amongst senior decision-makers and those that shape the policy of our education system.

With a week to go to the end of term, there’s still time to wish everyone the best for the summer, and to say a Thank you to everyone for their dedication to the cause of education. So, from me, at least, a great big THANK YOU to everyone in our education system.

That was The Week That was…

This was an interesting week to have been away from one’s desk. Three Secretaries of State in a week! That’s one for the record books, along with so much else that has happened in Westminster politics during the past seven days.

How much will education feature in the debate over the selection of the next Prime Minister? Will some education journalist ask the obvious questions such as:

If you are going to cut taxes, what will happen to funding for schools, especially in the period before inflation is brought under control?

What are you going to do about the present teacher shortage?

Will you review the way that the apprenticeship Levy operates so that it isn’t a tax on small primary schools?

How important is helping young people recover from the effects of the covid pandemic and what would you do to help boost their mental health?

Do you believe in local democratic control of schooling?

What are you plans for levelling up as it affects the Roma and Traveller communities across England?

Was the EBacc a mistake?

How important do you see the youth Service and other out of school activities?

Will you offer Free School Meals to all primary school children for free?

I am sure that readers can add to this list with this with their own priorities. I am also pretty certain that most of these questions won’t be asked of the candidates.

Education, and schooling in particular doesn’t often feature in either leadership or general election campaigns. It is possible that there could be a debate about selective education, started by one of the candidates, as it is a topic that appeals to the older generation of Tory voters even if most younger Tories have never experienced it, unless they come from parts of the Home Counties. Faced with rising private school fees, some Tories might also see selective state education as a tax cut for parents no longer needing to pay school fees.

And on fees, where will the candidates stand on higher education, university fees and student numbers? It will be especially interesting to see what the Chancellor says as a former Education Secretary. 

Talking of former Education Secretary’s, I wonder whether there was time to take the Ministerial photograph of Michelle Donelan to hang on the wall at Sanctuary Buildings or whether they will use one taken in her previous Ministerial role in the department.

Finally, there is the future of the Schools Bill to consider. This mess of a piece of draft legislation was mauled in the House of Lords and is being reconsidered. The oversight and regulation of academy trusts is an important addition to the legislation on schooling, but I hope that the new team will also listen to their councillors about the importance of both place in the governance of schooling and the need for democratic local accountability.  Local Authorities will not accept the need for responsibility without involvement in decision-making and that matters for admissions, pupil place planning and SEND.

End ITT deserts

Whatever else the re-accreditation process being undertaken by the DfE across the ITT sector achieves, it must end the ITT deserts so that schools across England can rely upon a flow of new entrants into teaching across the whole gamut of secondary curriculum subjects and the differential needs of the primary sector. Attention should also be paid to the needs of the special school sector and pupils with SEND in mainstream schools. The lack of a genuine plan for the training of teachers for pupils with special needs is a scandal than needs highlighting.

However, the needs of the secondary school sector are just as pressing. TeachVac, as well as the DfE and even the tes have built up extensive databases of teacher vacancies that should inform the discussions about where provision needs to be located.

Ever since the cull of providers in the late 1970s and early 1980s there has been a policy of rewarding quality of provision regardless of where that provision was located. The thinking presumably was that ‘trainees will move to the jobs’, so location of the preparation is less important than quality of the preparation. There may also have been a thought that providers of training could partner with schools in localities where there was no training provider.

With the coming of school-based training and employment-based routes, there might also have been an assumption that schools finding recruitment challenging could enter the market and train their own teachers. This produced a confused approach that tried to marry up a top-down model of place allocations based on quality with a ‘bottom-up’ approach on need for teachers that led to a disorganised picture.

In 2013, Chris Waterman joined me in producing a book of maps showing the locations of the various providers, and the routes into teaching that they offered. I have always been surprised that the DfE website on teaching as a career doesn’t offer such a map alongside its rudimentary search facility that only indicates whether a provider has places for a specific course in a manner unhelpful to applicants. The DfE did better in 2013 with its original School Direct application process.

The re-accreditation process provides an opportunity to look in detail at the national picture based upon actual needs for teachers that has been lost since the decision in the 1960s to take teacher preparation away from the employing local authorities and faith communities and transfer preparation into higher education. Wise though that move was in many respects, once the DfE started to let a thousand flowers bloom in the teacher preparation market this ended any national coherence around the provision in relation to the needs of schools.

The situation has become worse in areas where state schools are competing with private schools for the same pool of teachers and trainees. Turning a blind eye to that fact doesn’t help state schools, especially when there is a shortage of new entrants into the profession.

Whatever else the re-accreditation process achieves, if it doesn’t take into account the needs of schools across the whole of England for a reliable flow of new entrants across all subjects and phases it will have failed in what should be one if its major purposes.