The reality of the teacher recruitment crisis

Posted on April 29, 2023 by John Howson

Thanks to the DfE reopening the data files on teacher numbers and the calculations behind the need for increased targets it is now possible to ask some more interesting questions about teacher supply.

Two key ones are: what percentage of new entrants should we expect to enter the Further Education Sector and what percentage should we expect to take teaching posts in private schools and tutoring establishments? The DfE should have access to this data from the profiles of ITT providers.

However, there is some sector-wide evidence in the data associated with the Teacher Supply Model in the tables of the percentage completing ITT and percentage employed in state schools that can go some way to addressing these questions.

Subject	Completion %	Entering Employment %	2022 offers	2022 ITT Census minus TF	Census as % Offers	Entering Employment Based 2022 on census
Primary	91	68		10,582
Mathematics	89	70	2048	1,679	82%	1175
Biology	90	73	684	566	83%	413
Chemistry	89	72	849	703	83%	506
Physics	84	64	532	403	76%	258
Computing	89	62	419	329	79%	204
English	92	76	1646	1,447	88%	1100
Classics	97	59	64	58	91%	34
Modern Languages	93	62	808	657	81%	407
Geography	92	68	616	572	93%	389
History	93	71	1144	1032	90%	733
Art & Design	93	66	565	478	85%	315
Business Studies	92	63	242	186	77%	117
Design & Technology	93	74	444	428	96%	317
Drama	94	67	384	329	86%	220
Music	91	66	287	258	90%	170
Others	94	65	484	426	88%	277
Physical Education	97	63	1543	1405	91%	885
Religious Education	92	72	340	293	86%	211
Secondary total				12,356		7733

Source: DfE and TeachVac

Completion rates used by the DfE vary from just 84% in the already small cohort of physics trainees to 97% in both Classics and physical education. Percentages entering employment range from 74% of design and technology trainees to 59% of classics trainees and 62% of computing trainees. Physics, with an employment rate of 64%, has a percentage that is little better than computing.

In calculating the number of trainees in the 2022 ITT Census – minus Teach First trainees, as they are already in the classroom – I have assumed the same base level as a starting point as for completion rates as for employment rates. If the percentage entering employment were of the percentage completing, the totals for the latter would be lower.

So, where are the missing 145 physics trainees? Undoubtedly, the largest number are teaching in the private sector; some will be lecturing in Sixth Form of other Further Education colleges and some won’t have entered teaching at all. A few might have decided to work in schools outside of England.

I suspect that the influence of the private sector on these numbers is best seen in the data around classics. The Census recorded 58 trainees, with just 59% entering employment in the state sector. That’s just 34 teachers. With the target for 2023/24 cut to 25, if ITT providers stuck to the target and didn’t over-recruit, it is entirely possible that there would be no Classics trainees available for the state school sector for September 2024.

Now, many may not weep about the loss of classics as a subject, although a cogent case can be made for its retention by those that support it. Fortunately, in history and physical education, where targets have been reduced, low employment percentages may owe more to the over-recruitment against the previous targets than a warning of teacher shortages. However, the contribution of these teachers to the staffing of other subjects may cause other problems for the staff creating timetables for schools in September 2024.

Collateral damage to religious education, where the employment rate of 72% produce a total of only 293 new entrants, is one obvious likely outcome if history numbers are restricted to anywhere close to the 2023 target.

As these numbers haven’t been adjusted for either apprenticeships or the School Direct Salaried scheme, they may well still be slightly too high to represent reality in terms of the ‘open’ labour market.

How they are spread out across the country, is a whole different set of issues that perhaps the Select committee might like to delve into as part of its discussions with the Secretary of State.

High Achievers and ITT outcomes for 2023

Posted on April 28, 2023 by John Howson

In my previous post I mentioned that I didn’t know whether or not the High Achiever programme numbers were included in the ITT overall targets. By delving into the methodology section, it seems that they are.

As Teach First has had a good record of meeting its targets, I have reworked the data for April offers to add in the assumption that all High Achiever places will be filled.

Subject	offers April 23	% of target	High Achievers % of Target	with High Achievers
Art & Design	300	36%	0%	36%
Biology	487	46%	11%	58%
Business Studies	142	12%	3%	15%
Chemistry	461	39%	6%	45%
Classics	48	192%	0%	192%
Computing	232	20%	4%	24%
Design & Technology	301	14%	2%	16%
Drama	196	65%	0%	65%
English	1273	42%	11%	53%
Geography	520	35%	5%	40%
History	639	80%	8%	87%
Mathematics	1199	41%	9%	50%
Modern Languages	703	24%	5%	29%
Music	156	20%	4%	24%
Others	280	12%	0%	12%
Physical Education	1249	170%	0%	170%
Physics	361	13%	3%	16%
Religious Education	179	27%	5%	32%
Total	8726	33%	5%	39%

Source: TeachVac www.teachvac.co.uk

The final column shows my assumption about the percentage of places that are currently filled based on current offers plus all High Achiever places. On this basis, assuming all of those offered a place turn up at the start of the course, and offers continue to be made at the same rate as in previous years, targets won’t be met, but there might be a slight improvement over last year.

The qualifications around the difference between ‘offers’, some of which are conditional, and outcomes, means these figures are only indicative. I will try and find time to compare the final offer total from last September with the ITT census number as that will provide an indication of ‘drop-out and no shows that could be factored into the totals.

However, it is possible to say with almost 100% certainty that targets won’t be met in many secondary subjects again this year even if target numbers hadn’t been increased.

With the addition of graduating students from degree programmes, it is likely that primary output will be more than sufficient to meet the needs of the sector. Whether these new entrants will be where they are required is another matter.

Bit late for ITT targets

Posted on April 27, 2023 by John Howson

The DfE has finally published the ITT targets for courses starting this autumn. Postgraduate initial teacher training targets: 2023 to 2024 – GOV.UK (www.gov.uk) In addition, they have also supplied details of the Teacher Supply Model that allows the workings behind the calculation of the targets to be discussed. This is a welcome return to open government after a few years of limited information on the thinking behind the numbers.

Two points arise from the announcement. Firstly, it is incredibly late in the recruitment round. For most subjects that fact won’t matter because the targets aren’t going to be met. But what will happen in Classics and physical education where there are currently more offers than places in the target? Will potential trainees have their offers withdrawn? Will providers recruit over target, and will there be any consequences for doing so? Will the DfE look at overall recruitment by a provider rather than on a subject-by-subject basis?

The DfE’s decision may well influence how providers approach the business of making offers in future rounds. Historically, these targets were issued in the autumn so that providers knew their allocations before they had started to make many offers. Such an approach is much more sensible than announcing the target after Easter, more than half-way through the recruitment cycle. In the past, there were also indicative targets for future years. This helped providers manage their workforce planning.

The more alarming feature of these targets is the addition of the under-recruitment from earlier rounds. I have addressed this issue before. Schools do not start each new year sending children home because they couldn’t recruit enough teachers. They botch, by recruiting those teachers that they can, and adjusting the timetable and the underlying curriculum to fit the staff they have recruited. There are as a result not the vacancies there were in the training cycle.

Suppose there was an unexpected economic slowdown because of US bank failures and teaching suddenly recruited to these new targets? Would these additional trainees find jobs in 2024. The answer is we don’t know because the demands on school funding, especially for staff costs are not yet known, but it would seem unlikely. So, if a school has employed a biologist to teach physics and were offered a physics teacher for 2024 would they sack the biology teacher? Or let the physics teacher wait for an opening to arise?

Adding unfilled places to future targets has been tried in the past, and didn’t work. I am surprised to see it being used again this year.

As a result of the increase in targets in many secondary subjects – and it isn’t clear whether these targets include Teach First numbers or not – the April offer numbers represent only a small fraction of the DfE’s target number in many subjects, as the data in the table reveals.

Subject	Offers as a % of target
Business Studies	12
Others	12
Physics	13
Design & Technology	14
Computing	20
Music	20
Modern Languages	24
Religious Education	27
Total	33
Geography	35
Art & Design	36
Chemistry	39
Mathematics	41
English	42
Biology	46
Drama	65
History	80
Physical Education	170
Classics	192

Source: TeachVac www.teachvac.co.uk

History and drama may well meet their targets, but all other subjects probably won’t. Will the DfE add any shortfall on these targets onto those for next year, making the totals even higher and harder to achieve?

Finally, how will these target numbers play out with the newly accredited providers? Are the institutions going to take the extra numbers or might the loss of some providers be a matter for regret?

Warning signs on ITT recruitment

Posted on April 24, 2023 by John Howson

The DfE is holding a webinar for teachers looking for a job this afternoon. I suspect that it may well be full or primary teachers and trainees, plus some history and PE teachers. Anyone else still looking for a teaching post for September either has only just started or may need more than a webinar to help them find a job. TeachVac www.teachvac.couk along with other services does offer one to one advice sessions.

However, based upon the applications data for 2023 postgraduate courses released today, the DfE might be better advised chasing up more applicants for next year. April can be a tricky month to assess the status of the applications round for any year because of Easter and other faith festivals. However, some trends are becoming clear.

The increase in applications, as reported previously, is being driven by an increase from those recorded as from the ‘rest of the world’. Thus, of the 2,601 recorded increase in applicants compared with April last year, some 2,014 are shown as from ‘rest of the world’.

The danger is that this increase is masking some worrying trends. The number of applicants under the age of 25 continues to be below the number recorded last year by around 400 applicants, or more than 2%.

More concerning are the nine secondary subjects where offers are at their worst level since before 2016/17. Of the other secondary subjects, most are still below the offers at April in the 2020/21 cycle. Only geography and design and technology are back to offer levels in earlier years. For geography it is the best April since 2018/19, and for design and technology, the best since 2016/17, although even at the current level the target won’t be met for this year.

The sciences and modern foreign languages are the subjects where the greatest improvements in offers can be identified. So, perhaps the bursary and scholarships are making a difference. However, there is not the data to see the extent to which these extra offers are being made to ‘home students’ or those from overseas.

The increase in applicants is significantly affecting universities, faced with nearly 8,000 more applications so far this round: a 20% increase in workload. The total number of applicants rejected has increased from 3,727 in April last year to 5,612 this April. Nearly 300 more applicants have also withdrawn their applications.

Another worrying sign is the decline in applicants domiciled in London and the South East regions where demand for teachers is always the highest.

Unless there is an increase in home applicants over the next couple of months this round is beginning to look as if the outcome will be grim for providers trying to fund courses with limited numbers of students, and for schools seeking teachers in September 2024 and January 2025.

Hopefully, the resolution, when it comes, of the pay and conditions dispute between the teaching associations and the government will include provisions to encourage more graduates to choose teaching as a career. Paying their fees might be a useful concession.

Filling a vacancy for a teacher of physics

Posted on April 19, 2023 by John Howson

Last July I wrote a post about how many teachers of physics might start work in state schools in September 2022. As that post still receives views, I thought that I would update my projection for September 2023, based upon the DfE’s ITT Census of last autumn.

The ITT Census revealed that there were 444 trainee physics teachers studying on all routes on course and programmes that commenced in the autumn of 2022. Some 59 of these are on salaried schemes. That was less than one fifth of the DfE’s target number required to staff our school system.

41 on the High Achievers programme – presumably mostly Teach First

4 on Postgraduate Apprenticeships

14 on the School Direct Salaried programme

That means there were 385 trainees on other routes into teaching, with 300 of those divided between higher education providers and SCITTs. The remainder being on the School Direct fee route.

Allowing for a non-entry rate of 5%, as a result of either not completing the course; entering teaching in an independent school or the further education sector such as in a Sixth Form College, this leaves a possible 350 physics trainees job hunting in 2023. If the non-entry to maintained schools increased to 10% of the cohort, and physics has had lower entry rates in the past than some subjects, the job seeker numbers would be reduced to 315 in total.

Up until the 18^th April from 1^st January 2023, TeachVac www.teachvac.co.uk has recorded 668 specific advertisements for teachers of physics. I am sure that there will also be some other schools that have together posted the 5,384 science teacher vacancies that were really seeking a physics teacher.

This suggests that trainees will be scarce on the ground. Of course, trainees are not the only source of teachers to fill vacancies. There are returners and those switching between schools. Assuming these groups total the same as the trainee number, with the 5% reduction, this might make a total of 700 job seekers for the 668 distinct physics vacancies already advertised and the share of other vacancies where physics was a key component of the job description.

It seems likely that any school seeking a teacher of physics that attracts no interest via a job board such as TeachVac might well need to consider the worth of spending cash on using a recruitment agency. A no find: no fee approach would be the best for a school, but challenging for agencies. However, agencies can also look abroad to see whether there might be teachers overseas willing to fill the school’s vacancy. However, I would think it sensible for a school to ask for proof of success rates before engaging any high- cost agency to fill their teaching vacancy.

If filling vacancies for September will be a challenge, finding a replacement for a January 2024 vacancy for a teacher of physics might well be nigh on impossible for the vast majority of schools. Hopefully, not many schools will be faced with that situation.

Could everyone study mathematics to 18?

Posted on April 18, 2023 by John Howson

Are there enough teachers of mathematics to allow all 16-18 year olds to be taught the courses required by the Prime Minister? Not surprisingly, the teacher associations state that in the middle of a teacher recruitment crisis then there certainly are not enough teachers. Are they correct?

Well, as a famous radio personality of the 1950s once said, ‘it depends upon what you mean by’. In this case it depends upon what you mean by a teacher of mathematics? The first problem is that those in the 16-18 year old age-group divide into four: those in the school sector; those in further education; those in apprenticeships or other work environments and finally the NEET group, not in employment, education or training for one reason or another. Some of these, such as the small group in custody could receive some maths education, but most, by the nature of the category, would be outside any scheme.

However, let’s concentrate on the school sector. Could adding perhaps two hours a week to the curriculum of those in Years 12 and 13 be staffed? The obvious answer is that yes it could be. After all, any teacher can be required to teach any subject to any year group while QTS (Qualified Teacher Status) remains just that, a certification to teach, not a curriculum limited certification as I have long advocated. Additionally, academies don’t even need to employ staff with QTS, so they could hire retired engineers or undergraduates from a local university interested in earning a bit of cash to support their studies.

With the Oak Academy, schools might just sit the students in a room and show them pre-recorded learning modules, especially if no assessment was required at the end of the course. After all, discipline shouldn’t be an issue with this age group that are still in schools.

Of course, schools would expect some more funding from the government for putting on more courses, even if they reduced other teaching hours so as to keep programme levels at the same overall package length for students.

The government has been developing strategies to improve the teaching of mathematics in schools with more maths hubs and CPD available, that will have made a difference to the skill set of the teaching force, but probably only a small impact.

More importantly is the number of new teachers, where there are far fewer in training than in recent years.

2013/14	2014/15	2015/16	2016/17	2017/18	2018/19	2019/20	2020/21	2021/22	2022/23
2125	2170	2450	2545	2450	2174	2145	2792	2671	1834

The ITT Census number of 1,834 is by far the lowest for over a decade. With STEM subject trainee numbers also being lower, there is support for the position being taken by the teacher associations.

Even if the mathematics was in fact statistics and problem-solving father than pure mathematics, it seems likely that there would not be sufficient teachers to staff any normal method of delivery. Might this be a time to consider the use of technology in delivery of the curriculum?

Big increase in teacher vacancies across London

Posted on April 4, 2023 by John Howson

At the end of the first quarter of 2023, it is interesting to look at the trends in vacancies for classroom teacher vacancies in the secondary sector. I thought that London would be a good place to start such an analysis. The boroughs are a well-defined area that covers two pay zones: Inner and Outer London.

I the first quarter of 2023, TeachVac www.teachvac.co.uk recorded some 2,528 vacancies from secondary and all-age schools in the capital’s boroughs.

London
	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023
January	655	983	1251	394	1177	1451
February	607	914	1324	765	821	1674
March	922	1432	1430	1181	2071	2528
April	1032	1393	953	1028	1770
May	1490	1754	918	1865	2683
June	526	795	417	957	1289
July	118	221	112	150	411
August	79	88	48	54	210
September	328	507	324	528	920
October	479	636	430	550	913
November	471	598	397	667	946
December	273	439	243	372	594

Source: TeachVac http://www.teachvac.co.uk

The total for the quarter was a new record , and was some 25% above the figure for the first quarter of 2022; itself a new record for the period since 2018. If the trend continues then May’s number will exceed 3,000 in a month for the first time. April is usually quieter than either march or May due to the Easter holidays. How the Coronation will affect may’s vacancies is a matter for conjecture at present.

Government Office Region: London
Local Authority: All

Top of Form

Subject	2022	2023	Percentage +/-
Art	114	145	+27%
Business	128	130	+2%
Classics	31	28	-10%
Computer Science	221	362	+64%
Dance	5	8	+60%
Drama	111	105	-5%
DT	288	360	+25%
Economics	115	86	-25%
Engineering	1	0	-100%
English	464	551	+19%
Geography	239	350	+46%
Health and Social Care	31	24	-23%
History	148	196	+32%
Humanities	18	49	+172%
Law	3	6	+100%
Mathematics	522	646	+24%
Media Studies	23	37	+61%
MFL	310	369	+19%
Music	158	179	+13%
Pastoral	45	81	+80%
PE	172	234	+36%
Philosophy	14	16	+14%
Psychology	72	73	+1%
RE	192	242	+26%
Science	744	866	+16%
–Biology	84	85	+1%
–Chemistry	111	104	-6%
–Physics	124	172	+39%
SEN	94	89	-5%
Sociology	42	48	+14%
Total	4305	5280	+23%

Source TeachVac http://www.teachvac.co.uk

Yesterday, I posted the data for England as a whole and the picture for London broadly follows the national trend but with some much higher percentage increases in the first quarter of 2023 over the same period in 2022. For instance, computing vacancies are up by 64% and geography by 46%. Whether it is a result of the increased concern over the mental health or rising pupil rolls in parts of the capital, but pastoral post vacancies have increased by 80% when compared with Q1 in 2022. However, SEN vacancies fell by 5% year on year.

Outer London boroughs dominate the top of the table for vacancies recorded in the secondary sector by borough (These include both state and private school teaching vacancies – hence the total for the city of London).

Local Authority	Q1 2023
Barnet	371
Croydon	336
Enfield	248
Bromley	247
Hillingdon	236
Hounslow	230
Ealing	223
Bexley	214
Harrow	212
Southwark	208
Redbridge	199
Westminster	197
Sutton	172
Wandsworth	170
Newham	161
Richmond upon Thames	159
Greenwich	158
Brent	155
Hackney	144
Merton	143
Camden	141
Kingston upon Thames	141
Waltham Forest	141
Barking and Dagenham	129
Lambeth	128
Lewisham	117
Tower Hamlets	117
Haringey	112
Hammersmith and Fulham	87
Havering	75
Islington	71
Kensington and Chelsea	51
City of London	26
Grand Total	5519

Source: TeachVac http://www.teachvac.co.uk

With the issues of low numbers of trainees, schools in London without access to Teach First’s High Achievers programme may struggle to recruit staff for September and certainly for January 2024 appointments.

22% more teaching vacancies

Posted on April 3, 2023 by John Howson

How challenging has the teacher labour market been during the first three months of 2023? Certainly, there has been a recorded increase in vacancies compared with the first three months of 2022 in many secondary subjects as the data in the table shows.

(Jobs Found in Date Range: 01-01 To 31-03 in Years 2022 and 2023

Government Office Region: All
Local Authority: All

Subject	2022	2023	Percentage
Art	527	670	+27%
Business	636	654	+3%
Classics	110	111	+1%
Computer Science	1191	1519	+28%
Dance	42	41	-2%
Drama	358	368	+3%
DT	1643	2049	+25%
Economics	307	232	-24%
Engineering	7	0	-100%
English	2566	3392	+32%
Geography	1046	1429	+37%
Health and Social Care	160	124	-23%
History	748	841	+12%
Humanities	231	388	+68%
Law	32	31	-3%
Mathematics	3327	3942	+18%
Media Studies	75	110	+47%
MFL	1736	2208	+27%
Music	647	782	+21%
Pastoral	272	370	+36%
PE	906	1187	+31%
Philosophy	63	56	-11%
Psychology	307	286	-7%
RE	835	979	+17%
Science	3955	4839	+22%
–Biology	310	353	+14%
–Chemistry	438	429	-2%
–Physics	526	580	+10%
SEN	431	445	+3%
Sociology	133	137	+3%
Total	22291	27190	+22%

Source: Teachvac www.teachvac.co.uk

Chemistry is the only major subject to have recorded a fall in vacancies compared with the first three months of 2022, and the fall was only two per cent or just nine vacancies below 2022.

Overall, TeachVac has recorded a 22% increase in secondary sector vacancies, with English recording a 32% increase from 2,566 to 3,392 vacancies during the three months. Geography has recorded a 37% increase in vacancies and pastoral type vacancies increased by 36% compared with the first quarter of last year.

As the number of trainees entering the labour market is lower than in recent years, the next few weeks when the labour market for teachers reaches its annual peak will be challenging for many schools seeking to make appointments for September 2023, especially for schools in and around London where the competition between state and private schools for teachers is at its most intense.

This lunchtime, the BBC World at One invited three conservative supporters – one MP and two think tank commentators – to discuss the challenges facing the teaching profession. All agreed that there were deep-seated issues of both pay and conditions of work than will need to be addressed if state schools are going to stop the departure of teachers from the profession and encourage more new entrants into teaching.

The rejection of the current pay offer made by the government by NEU members means strikes will now continue into the summer term and the examinations season unless Ministers can squeeze more cash out of HM Treasury.

I don’t envy those trying to construct school timetables for 2023-24 school year especially in challenging schools with a high staff turnover. Ofsted should take the recruitment crisis into account when inspecting schools. TeachVac will happily offer data comparing schools being inspected with the norm for the local area.

Teaching not attracting new graduates

Posted on April 2, 2023 by John Howson

Might history become a ‘shortage subject’ in the teacher labour market? Such a question seems fanciful in the extreme. However, the latest batch of data about applications for 2023 postgraduate courses for ITT where the trainees will supply the 2024 labour market shows the lowest March number for ‘offers’ since before the 2013/14 recruitment round. I am sure that providers are being cautious about making offers, but there does seem to be a trend developing, with non-bursary and arts subjects faring worse than the science and other bursary subjects and the primary sector applications still continuing at a low rate.

Art, religious education, music drama, classics and ‘other’ are subjects where the offers made by the March reporting date were below the March 2022 number. Most other subjects were reporting higher offer levels than in March 2022 – a disastrous month – but below previous years. Design and technology is an exception. The recovery from the low point of March 2020 in that subject continues. However, the number of offers is not yet such as to inspire confidence that the target for 2023 will be met. Offers in art and design in March 2023 were less than half of the number in March 2020.

So, what of overall progress in attracting graduates into teacher at the half-way point in the recruitment cycle? This March, there were 25,163 candidates compared with 23,264 in March 2022. However, the overall increase of just under 2,000 more applicants is fully accounted for by the 2,600 more candidates shown as applying from outside of the United Kingdom, the Channel Islands and the Isle of Man. London has nearly 400 fewer candidates this March compared with March 2022 as measured by the location of the candidate’s application address, and the East of England, down from 2,213 in March 2022 to 1,955 this March.

Applications are being sustained by an increase in career changers. Candidate numbers in the age groups below 25 continue to fall, with just 4,027 candidates in the 21 or under age grouping. By contrast, this year there are already 600 candidates in the 50-54 age grouping compared with 449 in March 2022. The number of candidates recorded as over the age of 65 has increased from 12 in March 2022 to 25 this March! The bulk of the career changers seem likely to be men. The number in this group has increased from 6,525 in the March 2022 data to 8,037 this March. However, the number recruited has fallen from 562 to 419, perhaps indicating that many of these older men are in the group applying from overseas?

All the increase is in applications for secondary courses. Those applying for primary courses has fallen from 28,391 in March 2022 to 27,874 this March. By comparison the secondary applications have increased from 32,551 in March 2022 to 40,193 this March.

The increase in applications from outside of the United Kingdom may well be the reason that every route into teaching has registered an increase in unsuccessful applications compared with the figure for March 2022. It would be interesting to know whether or not Teach First has seen a similar increase in applications from outside the United Kingdom.

Once the overseas applicants have been removed, the picture for March 2023 is mixed, with bursary subjects generally doing slightly better than other subjects. However, the real concern must be the loss of interest in teaching among young home graduates. Such a decline is very worrying.

Teacher Recruitment Crisis: is the end in sight?

Posted on March 10, 2023 by John Howson

Yesterday, Silicon Valley Bank hit a bump in the road. Most readers won’t have heard of this American bank that has created a niche for itself by lending to technology start-ups, including in the famous Silicon Valley, south of San Francisco.

However, might yesterday’s event prove as significant as Northern Rock’s fall from grace was in the first decade of the century at marking a turning point in the business cycle. If it does, then whatever the outcome of the current teachers’ pay dispute, teaching will look like a safe haven in a disturbed economic order. And, as in past bouts of turmoil, more people will seek to become teachers in any uncertain times, and those that quit for pastures new will seek to return in greater number.

Three years ago there was a spike in interest in teaching as a career when lockdown and the covid pandemic looked as if it would create disruption in the labour market. The furlough scheme and other government initiatives meant that spike in interest in teaching as a career was short-lived.

The banking crisis of 2008 led to record numbers of graduates seeking to train as a teacher, reaching 67,000 applicants in the course of the 2009/10 cycle. By contrast, in 2021/22 cycle the total number of applicants only reached 39,288 according to DfE data: less than two per place.

Of course, by tomorrow, Silicon Valley Bank will no doubt have calmed investors and the risks will have been reassessed. However, the fundamental point about the relationship between the health of the economy and teaching as a career, at least in England where there is a well-developed labour market for graduates, will still hold good. Booming economies are bad for teaching as a career: recessions encourage more to consider teaching as a career, and current teachers not to take the risk of leaving.

Government statisticians are still predicting the possibility of a mild recession in the United Kingdom at some point this year, so perhaps we can predict the end of the current recruitment crisis in teaching?

Sadly, I think it will take more than mild recession to bail out the teacher labour market, at least in the secondary school sector. Falling rolls helps, as the divergence between the labour markets in the primary and secondary school sectors is now starting to make clear. Ironically, a high pay settlement, not fully funded for schools, would also reduce demand, but push up class sizes and affect the quality of learning in other ways.

However, if a recession doesn’t bail out the teacher labour market, might the very type of companies that the Silicon Valley Bank supports help out? Teaching as an occupation has made remarkably little use of technology to support the teacher pupil interface. The government might well set up a research institute to identify how to improve the capital/labour relationship in teaching so as to widen the range of qualifications acceptable to become a teacher. They might focus less on subject knowledge and more on human interactions and motivation as a means of promoting learning. They might also reduce teacher’s workload by taking away as many administrative chores as possible.

But, as we have seen in the recruitment of teachers, driving down costs by new technology doesn’t always change spending habits. Pay teachers more: use technology more effectively and create a 21^st century schooling system. Now there’s a thought for the ASCL Conference this weekend.

John Howson

Education and the numbers that affect what happens

Tag Archives: teacher supply