Demand for middle leaders in schools during 2023

Posted on August 6, 2023 by John Howson

Continuing the look at the labour market for teachers during the first seven months of 2023, this post looks at the trend in advertised vacancies for promoted post – largely vacancies with a TLR attached to the advertised vacancy.

Promoted posts

Promoted posts in the secondary sector include the whole range of middle leadership posts from supporting roles with a TLR in mathematics and English departments to heads of subject roles in sciences and languages departments and faculties and also all the heads of department roles across all curriculum subjects; SEND and student support roles taken by teachers.

Promoted post 2022
Subject Group	Independent	State	Grand Total
ART	55	244	299
SCIENCE	173	1699	1872
ENGLISH	108	1312	1420
MATHEMATICS	110	1513	1623
LANGUAGES	141	853	994
HUMANITIES	6	165	171
COMPUTING	133	582	715
DESIGN & TECHNOLOGY	67	750	817
BUSINESS STUDIES	97	502	599
VOCATIONAL	2	109	111
RELIGIOUS EDUCATION	53	484	537
PHYSICAL EDUCATION	147	389	536
TEACHING & LEARNING	66	744	810
PSHE	32	72	104
DANCE	70	242	312
SEND	115	688	803
MUSIC	118	345	463
SOCIAL SCIENCES	68	281	349
PEFORMING ARTS	7	121	128
GEOGRAPHY	41	535	576
HISTORY	46	291	337
Grand Total	1655	11921	13576

Promoted post 2023
Subject Group	Independent	State	Grand Total
ART	39	290	329
SCIENCE	151	2131	2282
ENGLISH	96	1541	1637
MATHEMATICS	102	1706	1808
LANGUAGES	105	973	1078
HUMANITIES	7	227	234
COMPUTING	63	691	754
DESIGN & TECHNOLOGY	52	846	898
BUSINESS STUDIES	71	457	528
VOCATIONAL		86	86
RELIGIOUS EDUCATION	21	447	468
PHYSICAL EDUCATION	113	472	585
TEACHING & LEARNING	57	873	930
PSHE	7	136	143
DANCE	53	278	331
SEND	103	638	741
MUSIC	110	433	543
SOCIAL SCIENCES	47	308	355
PEFORMING ARTS	4	131	135
GEOGRAPHY	30	636	666
HISTORY	35	334	369
Grand Total	1266	13634	14900

Source: TeachVac

The advertisements for posts at this grade largely mirror the position for advertisements for classroom teaching vacancies for posts with no responsibility payments. Thus, fewer recorded advertisements in business studies and vocational courses, and also this year in religious education, and for leadership roles in special needs departments. One the other hand, there were above average increases in advertisements for physical education, the sciences and English, as well as some of the smaller subject areas such as computing and the humanities.

State schools still looking for secondary subject teachers

Posted on August 4, 2023 by John Howson

Classroom Teachers and promoted posts

(This is part 3 of the review of the labour market for teachers during the first seven months of 2023 – previous parts have already appeared on this blog. The next part will discuss promoted posts)

Secondary Sector

For many years secondary schools have controlled the location of their vacancy advertising. With the rise of the multi-academy trusts there have been some recent changes in the marketplace. Some trusts have consolidated all their vacancies into a single job board similar to that in use local authorities in the primary sector. Some Trusts have gone further and arranged with one of the emerging players in the recruitment market for them to handle the vacancies across the Trust’s schools.

To date the changes in the marketplace have not significantly dented the position of the ‘tes’ as a key website for vacancies, but there is no doubt that the market is undergoing its largest shake-up since the move from print advertising to on-line advertising.

Then there is the DfE site. Despite several years of operation and cajoling by Ministers and civil servants, schools do not always routinely post their vacancies on this free site. TeachVac and others have demonstrated how an efficient free service and covering all schools can operate at a lower cost to the taxpayer than the DfE site, and provide the government with a better real-time understanding of the working of the labour market.

As the Education Select Committee is currently conducting an enquiry into the supply of teachers, it will be interesting to see whether or not they address this issue when they come to write their report, presumably sometime in the autumn.

Classroom teacher vacancies

The outcome for the first seven months of 2023 was an overall increase of seven per cent in recorded vacancies for classroom teachers.

2022 Classroom teachers only
SUBJECT GROUPING	Independent	State	Grand Total
ART	150	992	1142
SCIENCE	936	5848	6784
ENGLISH	585	4185	4770
MATHEMATICS	674	4724	5398
LANGUAGES	499	2668	3167
HUMANITIES	50	464	514
COMPUTING	239	1805	2044
DESIGN & TECHNOLOGY	225	2987	3212
BUSINESS STUDIES	362	1474	1836
VOCATIONAL	23	494	517
RELIGIOUS EDUCATION	122	1245	1367
PHYSICAL EDUCATION	287	1774	2061
TEACHING & LEARNING	30	121	151
PSHE	22	104	126
DANCE	109	576	685
SEND	96	279	375
MUSIC	120	1005	1125
SOCIAL SCIENCES	180	976	1156
PEFORMING ARTS	4	127	131
GEOGRAPHY	184	1874	2058
HISTORY	159	1179	1338
Grand Total	5056	34901	39957

2023 Classroom teachers only
SUBJECT GROUPING	Independent	State	Grand Total
ART	123	1125	1248
SCIENCE	837	6476	7313
ENGLISH	541	5076	5617
MATHEMATICS	568	5234	5802
LANGUAGES	414	3014	3428
HUMANITIES	43	645	688
COMPUTING	223	1964	2187
DESIGN & TECHNOLOGY	218	3026	3244
BUSINESS STUDIES	324	1316	1640
VOCATIONAL	13	419	432
RELIGIOUS EDUCATION	92	1338	1430
PHYSICAL EDUCATION	253	1875	2128
TEACHING & LEARNING	21	129	150
PSHE	10	128	138
DANCE	106	649	755
SEND	82	283	365
MUSIC	85	1171	1256
SOCIAL SCIENCES	152	963	1115
PEFORMING ARTS	3	144	147
GEOGRAPHY	160	2191	2351
HISTORY	142	1266	1408
Grand Total	4410	38432	42842

Difference 2023 on 2022
SUBJECT GROUPING	Independent	State	Grand Total	% change
ART	-27	133	106	9%
SCIENCE	-99	628	529	8%
ENGLISH	-44	891	847	18%
MATHEMATICS	-106	510	404	7%
LANGUAGES	-85	346	261	8%
HUMANITIES	-7	181	174	34%
COMPUTING	-16	159	143	7%
DESIGN & TECHNOLOGY	-7	39	32	1%
BUSINESS STUDIES	-38	-158	-196	-11%
VOCATIONAL	-10	-75	-85	-16%
RELIGIOUS EDUCATION	-30	93	63	5%
PHYSICAL EDUCATION	-34	101	67	3%
TEACHING & LEARNING	-9	8	-1	-1%
PSHE	-12	24	12	10%
DANCE	-3	73	70	10%
SEND	-14	4	-10	-3%
MUSIC	-35	166	131	12%
SOCIAL SCIENCES	-28	-13	-41	-4%
PEFORMING ARTS	-1	17	16	12%
GEOGRAPHY	-24	317	293	14%
HISTORY	-17	87	70	5%
Grand Total	-646	3531	2885	7%

However, the increase was neither consistent across all subjects nor uniform in those subject groupings where there was an increase. Five subject groupings recorded decreases in vacancies during the first seven months of 2023, when compared with the same period in 2022: Business studies; vocational subject not classified elsewhere; teaching and learning; Special Needs without a TLR and the social science subjects not classified elsewhere.

Business Studies and design and technology (a 1% increase) are both subjects that schools have struggled to recruit teachers for many years. Perhaps the reduction in recorded vacancies means that schools have now accepted the difficulty in recruitment and stopped advertising. No doubt that will have affected the curriculum being offered as well.

The 34% increase in vacancies classified as for humanities that may have partly been the result of concerns from pervious years about the shortage of teachers of geography; not actually an issue in 2023. However, there was also an above average increase in recorded vacancies for teachers of geography and the vacancy rate is very different for the rate for history teachers, where demand is much lower. However, for 2024, the reduction in ‘offers’ may make finding even teachers of history more of a challenge next year.

The other key subject with a significant increase in demand, as measured by vacancies advertised was English. The recorded increase in vacancies was some 18%, and was entirely as a result of more recorded vacancies from schools in the state sector.

For most of the other EBacc subject groupings, the increase was in the range of 5-10% in 2023 when compared with the same time period in 2022.

However, independent sector schools as a group recorded a lower demand, as measure by vacancies advertised, during 2023. Down from 5,056 to 4,410, a reduction of 646 vacancies advertised. As will the state sector, there was not a uniform decline and some subject that were in the list of subjects in the state sector that experienced year-on-year declines in vacancy advertising did not do so in the private sector: business studies is one such subject.

The is undoubtedly an unmet demand for secondary school teachers in a range of subjects that will not be met until either recruitment into training increases or more teachers are persuaded to return to teaching in state schools. School and trust leaders would be well advised to focus their attention on retaining staff wherever possible and by whatever means as this is often a cheap option that trying to recruit a replacement member of staff.

Death of the arts

Posted on July 25, 2023 by John Howson

The grim news from the July data on recruitment to ITT postgraduate courses starting this autumn is that most arts subjects are recording offer levels below those of last year. Initial teacher training application statistics for courses starting in the 2023 to 2024 academic year – Apply for teacher training – GOV.UK (apply-for-teacher-training.service.gov.uk)

The 2022 recruitment round was the worst for many years, and while some subjects have recovered from the disastrous offer levels of last year, the arts subjects have continued their downward trend in offers in most cases. This is grim news for schools wanting to recruit for September 2024, as the data in the table below makes clear.

Subjects where offers are below the July 2022 and July 2021 levels

Art

Religious Education

Physical Education

Music

History

Subjects where offers are above the July 2022 abut below July 2021 levels

Languages

Mathematics

Computing

Chemistry

Business Studies

Subjects where offers are above the July 2022 and July 2021 levels

Physics

Geography

English

Design & Technology

Biology

Subjects where offers are below the July 2022 levels

Drama

Classics

‘Other’ subjects

Subjects in italics are those where it seems likely that the 2023 target will not be met even if ‘offers’ are better this year.

Both art and music are subjects where offers are down this year compared with 2022. In the case of art from 910 in July 2021 to just 478 this July. For music, the fall during the same period has been from 410 offers to just 224 offers this July. Drama is down from 364 offers last July to 275 this July. Offers at this level, even if all candidates turn up, will not produce enough trainees to meet the needs of schools next year.

The good news, such as it appears to be, is in subjects such as English, languages (other than classics) and geography. These are subjects where the level of applications has been large enough to allow offer levels to mean that the target should be met for the year.

However, a word of warning. Recruited numbers in four regions, including both London and the South East are below the number recorded in July 2022. Overall ‘recruited’ total is 3,395 down on July 2022, of 3,911. Also, those with ‘conditions pending’ are down by 124 on last year, creating a net loss across these two categories. There must, therefore be some uncertainty about the outcome of the recruitment round in terms of trainee numbers that will turn up in September.

Numbers of applicants in the youngest age categories are still below those for July 2022, whereas applications from candidates in the older age groupings continue to be above the levels seen in 2022.

The number of rejected applications has increased from 31,124 in July 2022 to 52,350 in July 2023. Lat year that represented 31.5% of applications. This July, it represented 40% of applications. Whether or not this increase is related to the origins of the applications is impossible to tell from the data. However, it would not surprise me if many of those rejected were in the ‘rest of the world’ category.

Barring any last-minute change next month, and with many school-based schemes not actively recruiting now, it seems likely that 2024 with be another grim year for schools recruiting teachers, especially, but not exclusively in some of the art subjects that the independent sector values more highly that the government seems to do.

ITT: Mixed news

Posted on June 26, 2023 by John Howson

The data provided by the DfE today on ITT applications and offers for postgraduate courses contained some very mixed messages. I am not sure whether the current pay dispute within the universities sector is affecting the data or whether there are genuine differences between subjects, with larger movements between May and June in offers this year than might normally be expected.

Regardless of any data collection issues, the message is the same as ever: offer levels will not be sufficient to meet targets in the majority of subjects, and the reduction in offers in physical education and history will remove the safety valve over-recruitment to high targets in these subjects have offered schools in previous years. Barring any last-minute change in July or August, it is now safe to say that the recruitment round for schools seeking to fill September vacancies next year in 2024 will be challenging unless there is an influx of returners or a reduction in leavers and better levels of retention. Of course, the whole country won’t be affected in the same way, but schools across the South East and parts of London might expect to face similar challenges to this year. You have been warned.

Religious Education and music are two subjects struggling with offers this year, even more than other subjects. Most other subjects are doing better than last year’s dreadful position, but often the offers are little different to the year before the pandemic. However, physics appears to have recovered from last year’s historic low. Whether that is reflected by the numbers arriving at the start of the course, only time will tell.

The 38,795 applicants by mid-June 2023 compared well with the 32,609 in June 2022 and looks like a healthy increase, but numbers recruited or recruited with conditions pending, a group that will include degree classifications from many universities this year, are down on last June’s number, albeit only slightly. Nearly 2,000 more applicants are awaiting a provider’s decision, and it would be helpful to know whether the majority of those are applicants that have applied to higher education providers?

The total number of young applicants, aged under 25, is similar this year to last, so the increase is in older career switchers rather than new graduates. The number of 30–34 year-olds applying has increased from 3,545 last year to 5,088 this year. As reported previously, the big increase is in candidates for ‘the rest of the world’ – up from 2,657 last June to 7,105 applicants this June. The overall total increase masks little change in the number of applicants from most of the regions of England. However, it is worth noting that 54% of London applicants have received an offer, compared with only 15% of those in the ‘rest of the world’ group. For this reason alone, it is important not to read too much into the headline increase in the number of applicants.

The number of offers made in the primary sector is down by 1,585 on the June 2022 figure, to just 9,182. Whether that will be enough to satisfy demand for teachers depends partly upon whether the secondary sector decides to recruit and retrain primary qualified teachers to fill their vacancies left by the reduction in history and PE teachers exiting training in 2024.

Over the summer, the DfE might like to reflect with the sector how these monthly statistics can be improved to make them more useful. We know nothing about ethnicity and little about regional breakdown of offer by subjects in the secondary sector. Both would be useful additions to the debate about whether the recruitment crisis is continuing or abating.

Are teacher vacancy rates slowing?

Posted on June 18, 2023 by John Howson

Were there really more teacher vacancies this May than during May 2022? There have been some suggestions that the answer is yes. I have seen an increase of seven per cent suggested. However, I am more cautious in suggesting any overall increase in vacancies.

Yes, there have been increases in some subjects, in some regions of England, but measuring a basket of 11 secondary subjects, no region recorded across the board increases in all subjects. In the primary sector, only the North West recorded any increase in vacancies, with a decline compared with the May 2022 number of vacancies in all other regions.

The North West and West Midlands recorded the largest number of secondary subjects with an increase in vacancies. The South East and Yorkshire & The Humber regions, the largest number of subjects where there was a decline on the May 2022 number of recorded advertisements for a classroom teacher or promoted post, according to TeachVac www.teachvac.co.uk where the data was compiled from their database of recorded vacancies.

So, why might there be a discrepancy in views about vacancies? One reason may be the treatment of repeat advertisements. I have long advocated a unique job number for each vacancy that accompanies it until it is either replaced by a different vacancy or the post is filled. Schools can be tardy at removing vacancies after the closing date, even when the post has been filled. TeachVac considers each vacancy it records and uses its own AI to decide whether to ask a human to review the vacancy, record it as a new vacancy, or discard it. This may account for some of the difference with other commentators.

TeachVac as a job board looks at teaching vacancies across both state and private schools. There is more work to be undertaken to see whether the slowdown has affected private schools more than state schools? The South East, a region with a high proportion of private schools, does seem to have seen more of a decline in vacancies than other regions. The Yorkshire and The Humber region had a strong year in 2022, so the decline in vacancies across that region may be a reaction to the number of vacancies recorded last year.

There is another possible explanation for any slowing of vacancies or even a downturn. In some subjects, notably design and technology, schools may finally have accepted that there is no point in advertising vacancies in the traditional manner, and either stopped advertising or moved to using an agency – hopefully on a no find no fee basis – or resorting to social media and other methods of recruitment advertising.

Of course, the uncertainty about pay levels for September may also now be causing schools, especially in areas where pupil rolls are not rising as fast as they have been, to become more cautious in their attitude to recruitment for September. Better to have unfilled vacancies and offer existing staff a new role than look forward to possible redundancies because of a lack of cash.

Looking at the TeachVac data for the first half of June, our recorded vacancies are still below those of 2022, except in England and Music, two subjects that largely resisted the downward trend in May.

There is more research to be undertaken, but perhaps the rise in mortgage rates is affecting the number of teachers either leaving the profession or in a position to take a maternity leave break that would require their job to be covered. Time will tell.

Physics looks like a success story

Posted on May 22, 2023 by John Howson

This morning the DfE published the data on applications for postgraduate ITT courses up to the 15^th May 2023. As ever, the key table at this time of year is the number of offers that have been made to candidates. The good news is that the 469 offers in physics represents the highest number in May since 2015/16, albeit the total is only nine above that in May 2021. Still, we must celebrate good news where it is to be found. However, the 469 offers still means that the target for the year will likely be missed by a long way unless there is an influx of new graduates over the next three months wanting to train as a teacher of physics.

Elsewhere, design and technology as a subject is also doing well compared with the dreadful lows of recent years. Mathematics, geography computing, chemistry and modern languages are all subjects that have bounced back from last year’s incredibly low levels, but have yet to recover to pre-pandemic levels of offer for this point in the recruitment cycle.

There is less good news in the arts, with art, religious education, music and history recording their worst offer levels for a decade. Business Studies is also recording a low level of offers. Drama, classics and the catch-all of ‘other’ are also recording lower levels of offer than last year.

Both physical education and history that have provided a buffer of new entrants through over-recruitment in the past seem less likely to do so this year. Indeed, history with only 721 offers – the lowest number of offers in May since before 2013/14 – might end up being classified as a shortage subject for the first time in recorded memory.

Applications for primary courses remain subdued with 33,392 applications compared with 35,401 in May 2022. Overall, candidate numbers were 32,481 this May, compared with 28,977 in May 2022. On the face of it, this is also good news. However, ‘Rest of the world’ applications are up from 2,310 in May 2022 to 5,781 this May and those from the EEA from 411 to 485. The 3,545 extra applications from these two areas outside of the United Kingdom may account for all the 3,500 additional applications this May compared with May 2022. Certainly, there are fewer applications from the London area this year. However, there are more applications across most of the north of England and the Midlands.

Young new graduates are still not being attracted to teaching in the same numbers as previously. Applications from those age 21 or under are still lower than in May 2022, as are applications form those age 22. It is not until the 25-29 age-group that the upturn in applications becomes apparent. The decline in applications for primary courses may be reflected in this trend to fewer young applicants to teaching.

Perhaps related to the geographical distribution of applications is the increase in rejections; up from 22,136 in May 2022 to 33,580 in May 2023. Numbers actually ‘recruited’ have fallen from 1,519 to 1,102 this May. However, perhaps because of the many bank holidays, the number of applications awaiting provider decisions has increased sharply. Next month should provide a clearer picture about the trend in ‘offers’ for September 2023.

Despite the limited good news in some subjects this recruitment round looks as if it will be another one where targets are missed and schools recruiting for September 2024 will again face a challenging labour market unless the STRB report and the rumour of a 6.5% pay award boosts recruitment over the next three months.

Mixed news on ITT applications

Posted on February 27, 2023 by John Howson

At a first glance, the data on postgraduate ITT applications and acceptances for February 2023, released this morning by the DfE, looks like good news. Overall applications are up from 51,745 in February 2022 to 56,704 this February, and applicant numbers are up from 19,933 to 21,208 for the same dates in 2022 and 2023.

However, it is important to look behind these headline numbers at two other facts. Firstly, there is a sharp difference in the behaviour of candidates by age groups. There are fewer candidates under the age of 29 this year when compared with last February. The key undergraduate group of age ‘21 and under’ are shown as 3,601 this February, whereas it was 3,778 in February 2022. However, the number of candidates in the 30 to 35 age grouping is up from 2,044 last February to 2,565 in February 2023.

The second point to note is the geographic distribution of candidates. Those from the London region are down from 3,231 to 2,885, whereas those shown as from the ‘rest of the world’ have increased from 1,427 in February 2022 to 3,524 this February. The overall increase in candidates is 1,275 (from 19,933 to 21,208) but the increase from the ‘Rest of the World’ is 2,097 (from 1,427 to 3,524).

The effect of this change in the location of candidates can be seen in the total applications by phase and subject. Applications for primary phase courses have remained constant at 23,355 compared with 23,967 in February 2022. For the secondary phase, applications have increased from 27,134 to 32,014. However, not all subjects have benefitted from more applications. Art and design; Classics; drama; history; music; physical education and religious education are all showing fewer applications this February than in February 2022.

The good news is that design and technology and physics have recorded more offers than last year. In the case of design and technology, offer levels are the best for February since February 2017. Modern Languages; geography; English; chemistry, biology and business studies have also recorded better ‘offer’ levels than last February. However, numbers are not yet sufficient to be confident to be assured that overall targets will be reached by the end of the recruitment round and the high level of applicants from overseas must be a matter for consideration. A breakdown of overseas versus home applicants by subject would be helpful.

Overall, fewer candidates have been recruited, (458 against 572) and fewer have offers with conditions pending, (9,827 compared to 10,503). Both the number of candidates rejected and withdrawn are above the February 2022 numbers.

The has been an increase in applicants recorded as ‘male’ from 5,559 to 6,704, whereas applications from ‘females’ have reduced from 14,402 to 14,289.

The question is whether we are seeing a loss of young UK- based female applicants to teaching and their being replaced by older males domiciled outside the United Kingdom. Teaching is increasingly a global profession, and QTS from the DfE may be seen as a valuable qualification. However, the question must be asked whether this trend will solve the teacher supply crisis in England?

TeachVac special offer

Posted on December 11, 2022 by John Howson

TeachVac are now offering a FREE subscription, up until February 2023, if you register a school with TeachVac now! From February, TeachVac will invoice a yearly subscription of £1 per match with a ceiling of £500 for secondary schools and £75 for primary schools.

Sign up at http://www.teachvac.co.uk

TeachVac has made 2,000,000 + MATCHES MADE in 2022

TeachVac has listed 100,000 + TEACHING JOBS in 2022

2023 vacancies will only be listed for schools signed up to TeachVac.

The average secondary school received more than 500 matches in 2022.

2023 will be another difficult year for teacher recruitment, so can you afford to miss this offer?

More on the ITT census

Posted on December 1, 2022 by John Howson

It is a fair comment to say that comparing this year’s data on trainees with last year doesn’t take into account the covid pandemic effect. Because it could well be so, I have looked back at trainee numbers reported in autumn 2019, before we had ever heard of the term covid, and compared those trainee numbers with the current ITT census

	2019/20	2022/23	22/23 compared with 19/20
Subject	Postgraduate total new entrants to ITT	Postgraduate total new entrants to ITT
Biology	1,937	664	-1273
English	2,907	1,762	-1145
Geography	1,317	656	-661
Modern Foreign Languages	1,387	726	-661
History	1,460	1,134	-326
Mathematics	2,159	1,844	-315
Religious Education	494	341	-153
Computing	472	348	-124
Physics	527	444	-83
Classics	71	58	-13
Chemistry	770	758	-12
Music	312	301	-11
Design & Technology	433	450	17
Drama	294	329	35
Business Studies	185	232	47
Art & Design	413	478	65
Physical Education	1,281	1,405	124
Other	282	426	144
STEM Subjects	5,865	4,058	-1807
EBacc Subjects	13,007	8,394	-4613
Non-EBacc Secondary Subjects	3,694	3,962	268
Primary	12,216	10,868	-1348
Secondary	16,701	12,356	-4345
Total	28,917	23,224	-5693

Source DfE ITT census

The good news is that six subjects recruited more trainees this year than in 2019/2020, providing a total of 432 additional trainees in secondary subjects to offset against the more than 4,500 fewer trainees in other key subjects. Now, some of the reductions may be due to changes in targets in popular subjects, but with over recruitment still possible it is difficult to see why providers would take that approach.

The chaos that is science recruitment continues, with biology providing nearly 1,300 fewer teachers this year. Do we need a ‘general science’ category, and for all science trainees to receive similar bursaries if that is still the favoured route to attract new teachers?

The decline in trainees in English, so that there are this year fewer trainees this year than in mathematics and more than 1,000 fewer than in 2019/20, must be of concern as must be the collapse in Modern Foreign Languages trainees, especially if we are to remain a trading nation, not only with the EU, but across the world. Whatever happened to Mr Gove’s 5,000 Mandarin teachers?

Is it good news that the decline in design and technology and business studies has stopped or should we still be worried that the decline has been arrested at such low levels?

The decline in primary trainee numbers must partly reflect the decline in the birth rate and the expected continued decline in the primary school population. Nevertheless, this sort of overall number may cause some local staffing issues for the sector unless the trainee numbers are well spread across England to meet the needs of all primary schools.

There may be a glimmer of good news in the fact that non-Ebacc subjects fared better than Ebacc subjects over the period. Might this be providing a portent of a change in the overall labour market that with the coming recession might meant that this years’ numbers really were the bottom of the cycle? The first set of applications data should provide clues for the 2024 recruitment round when the DfE issues them; hopefully next week.

ITT disaster

Posted on December 1, 2022 by John Howson

Congratulations to the DfE. The ITT Census of trainees published this morning Initial teacher training: trainee number census 2022 to 2023 – GOV.UK (www.gov.uk) shows a lower percentages of trainees this year compared with last year in every secondary subject except design and technology. In that subject there was an increase from 23% of target to 25% this year.

These trainee numbers are grim news for secondary schools that will be looking to recruit teachers for September 2023, and January 2024. Retention of existing staff must be high on the agenda for school leaders.

Even if all trainees were to complete their courses, and want to work in state schools, there would only be 444 physics teachers entering the market. Allow for in-course wastage and a proportion working either in private schools or Sixth Form Colleges and there may only be around 300 or so looking to work as physics teachers next September in State Schools.

Even in history and physical education, where over-recruitment to target continued again this year, actual trainee numbers appear to be down on last year, with a combined loss of around 600 potential teachers.

Overall, just 59% of secondary target places have been filled this year, even after taking the over-recruitment into account. Physics, as predicted by Jack Worth at NfER and suggested by this both reached only 17% of target.

Modern Foreign Languages slumped from 71% 0f target last year to just 34% of target this year. Even biology, usual a banker for good recruitment in the sciences only managed 85% of total this year.

What should the DfE do now? The bursary scheme isn’t working, and is inefficient and difficult to market. Perhaps it is time to revert to offering a salary during training to all trainees allowing them to build-up pension credits and making career switching more attractive. Some decisions must be taken, otherwise the levelling up agenda is dead in the water as far as schools are concerned.

More later as the whole dataset is reviewed.

John Howson

Education and the numbers that affect what happens

Tag Archives: music