Tag Archives: geography

More men looking to teach

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Today, the DfE published their first round of statistics about applications to train as a teacher on courses starting in the autumn of 2026. Generally, one has to be cautious about data from ‘applications’ and ‘offer’ statistics published in November, as this is very early in the application round.

However, with more than 20 years of data underpinning my remarks, I think it possible to say something.

Firstly, applications – and candidates may submit more than one – are up from 13,159 last November to 15,572 this year. Applications from men are up from 5,072 to 6,580, while those from women are up from 7,978 to 9,031. That equates to 1,052 more women applying, or an increase of 13%, but 1,508 more men; an increase of 30%. I cannot recall a time when the rate of increase in applications from men last outpaced those from women.

Part of this increase is probably down to the large increases in applications for mathematics, up from 1,657 last year to 1,929 this year. In computing, the applications are up from 509 to 841, and in physics from 1,694 to a staggering 3,277. All these are subjects that tend to attract more male than female candidates.

Aword of warning, before one becomes too carried away; applications from the Rest of the World are up from 3,540 last November to 5,120 this November. Might this account for part of the increase in male applicant in these subjects? Sadly, that cannot be determined from the published data.

Final year undergraduates are not yet swarming into teaching. No obvious concerns about loss of graduate jobs to AI from the 21 and under age group, where applications are actually down by 34 from 1,276 to 1,242. Presumably, studies still take precedence over job hunting.

However, there is a big increase in the 22-24 age group applying for teaching: up from 3,349 to 3,658 with nearly 200 of this increase from 22 year olds. Maybe summer 2025 graduates that are still job hunting are turning to teaching? There is little difference in interest in teaching from those over 45 years old. However, there has been a big jump (210) in interest from the 40-44 age group.

SCITTs is the only route to have seen fewer applications than in November 2025. This may reflect the fact that the SCITT route maty be less well-known to overseas applicants. Both teacher degree apprenticeships and PG teaching apprenticeships have seen significant increases in applications. It would be interesting to see this table by phase and subject.

On ‘offers’, it much depends upon how providers handle early applications. However, there is a trend with mathematics, computing, chemistry and physics all recording the highest ‘offer’ levels since 2013/14, whereas music has the lowest offer level since 2020/21. Most other subjects are close to where they would be expected to be, although biology, PE and geography are below where they might expect to be. PE probably over-recruited to current courses, and I would expect more caution there this year.

So, overall, a good start that should presage a good recruitment round unless something unforeseen happens.

Demand for middle leaders in schools during 2023

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Continuing the look at the labour market for teachers during the first seven months of 2023, this post looks at the trend in advertised vacancies for promoted post – largely vacancies with a TLR attached to the advertised vacancy.

Promoted posts

Promoted posts in the secondary sector include the whole range of middle leadership posts from supporting roles with a TLR in mathematics and English departments to heads of subject roles in sciences and languages departments and faculties and also all the heads of department roles across all curriculum subjects; SEND and student support roles taken by teachers.

Promoted post 2022
Subject GroupIndependentStateGrand Total
ART55244299
SCIENCE17316991872
ENGLISH10813121420
MATHEMATICS11015131623
LANGUAGES141853994
HUMANITIES6165171
COMPUTING133582715
DESIGN & TECHNOLOGY67750817
BUSINESS STUDIES97502599
VOCATIONAL2109111
RELIGIOUS EDUCATION53484537
PHYSICAL EDUCATION147389536
TEACHING & LEARNING66744810
PSHE3272104
DANCE70242312
SEND115688803
MUSIC118345463
SOCIAL SCIENCES68281349
PEFORMING ARTS7121128
GEOGRAPHY41535576
HISTORY46291337
Grand Total16551192113576
Promoted post 2023
Subject GroupIndependentStateGrand Total
ART39290329
SCIENCE15121312282
ENGLISH9615411637
MATHEMATICS10217061808
LANGUAGES1059731078
HUMANITIES7227234
COMPUTING63691754
DESIGN & TECHNOLOGY52846898
BUSINESS STUDIES71457528
VOCATIONAL8686
RELIGIOUS EDUCATION21447468
PHYSICAL EDUCATION113472585
TEACHING & LEARNING57873930
PSHE7136143
DANCE53278331
SEND103638741
MUSIC110433543
SOCIAL SCIENCES47308355
PEFORMING ARTS4131135
GEOGRAPHY30636666
HISTORY35334369
Grand Total12661363414900
Source: TeachVac

The advertisements for posts at this grade largely mirror the position for advertisements for classroom teaching vacancies for posts with no responsibility payments. Thus, fewer recorded advertisements in business studies and vocational courses, and also this year in religious education, and for leadership roles in special needs departments. One the other hand, there were above average increases in advertisements for physical education, the sciences and English, as well as some of the smaller subject areas such as computing and the humanities.

State schools still looking for secondary subject teachers

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Classroom Teachers and promoted posts

(This is part 3 of the review of the labour market for teachers during the first seven months of 2023 – previous parts have already appeared on this blog. The next part will discuss promoted posts)

Secondary Sector

For many years secondary schools have controlled the location of their vacancy advertising. With the rise of the multi-academy trusts there have been some recent changes in the marketplace. Some trusts have consolidated all their vacancies into a single job board similar to that in use local authorities in the primary sector. Some Trusts have gone further and arranged with one of the emerging players in the recruitment market for them to handle the vacancies across the Trust’s schools.

To date the changes in the marketplace have not significantly dented the position of the ‘tes’ as a key website for vacancies, but there is no doubt that the market is undergoing its largest shake-up since the move from print advertising to on-line advertising.

Then there is the DfE site. Despite several years of operation and cajoling by Ministers and civil servants, schools do not always routinely post their vacancies on this free site. TeachVac and others have demonstrated how an efficient free service and covering all schools can operate at a lower cost to the taxpayer than the DfE site, and provide the government with a better real-time understanding of the working of the labour market.

As the Education Select Committee is currently conducting an enquiry into the supply of teachers, it will be interesting to see whether or not they address this issue when they come to write their report, presumably sometime in the autumn.

Classroom teacher vacancies

The outcome for the first seven months of 2023 was an overall increase of seven per cent in recorded vacancies for classroom teachers.

2022 Classroom teachers only
SUBJECT GROUPINGIndependentStateGrand Total
ART1509921142
SCIENCE93658486784
ENGLISH58541854770
MATHEMATICS67447245398
LANGUAGES49926683167
HUMANITIES50464514
COMPUTING23918052044
DESIGN & TECHNOLOGY22529873212
BUSINESS STUDIES36214741836
VOCATIONAL23494517
RELIGIOUS EDUCATION12212451367
PHYSICAL EDUCATION28717742061
TEACHING & LEARNING30121151
PSHE22104126
DANCE109576685
SEND96279375
MUSIC12010051125
SOCIAL SCIENCES1809761156
PEFORMING ARTS4127131
GEOGRAPHY18418742058
HISTORY15911791338
Grand Total50563490139957
2023 Classroom teachers only
SUBJECT GROUPINGIndependentStateGrand Total
ART12311251248
SCIENCE83764767313
ENGLISH54150765617
MATHEMATICS56852345802
LANGUAGES41430143428
HUMANITIES43645688
COMPUTING22319642187
DESIGN & TECHNOLOGY21830263244
BUSINESS STUDIES32413161640
VOCATIONAL13419432
RELIGIOUS EDUCATION9213381430
PHYSICAL EDUCATION25318752128
TEACHING & LEARNING21129150
PSHE10128138
DANCE106649755
SEND82283365
MUSIC8511711256
SOCIAL SCIENCES1529631115
PEFORMING ARTS3144147
GEOGRAPHY16021912351
HISTORY14212661408
Grand Total44103843242842
Difference 2023 on 2022
SUBJECT GROUPINGIndependentStateGrand Total% change
ART-271331069%
SCIENCE-996285298%
ENGLISH-4489184718%
MATHEMATICS-1065104047%
LANGUAGES-853462618%
HUMANITIES-718117434%
COMPUTING-161591437%
DESIGN & TECHNOLOGY-739321%
BUSINESS STUDIES-38-158-196-11%
VOCATIONAL-10-75-85-16%
RELIGIOUS EDUCATION-3093635%
PHYSICAL EDUCATION-34101673%
TEACHING & LEARNING-98-1-1%
PSHE-12241210%
DANCE-3737010%
SEND-144-10-3%
MUSIC-3516613112%
SOCIAL SCIENCES-28-13-41-4%
PEFORMING ARTS-1171612%
GEOGRAPHY-2431729314%
HISTORY-1787705%
Grand Total-646353128857%

However, the increase was neither consistent across all subjects nor uniform in those subject groupings where there was an increase. Five subject groupings recorded decreases in vacancies during the first seven months of 2023, when compared with the same period in 2022: Business studies; vocational subject not classified elsewhere; teaching and learning; Special Needs without a TLR and the social science subjects not classified elsewhere.

Business Studies and design and technology (a 1% increase) are both subjects that schools have struggled to recruit teachers for many years. Perhaps the reduction in recorded vacancies means that schools have now accepted the difficulty in recruitment and stopped advertising. No doubt that will have affected the curriculum being offered as well.

The 34% increase in vacancies classified as for humanities that may have partly been the result of concerns from pervious years about the shortage of teachers of geography; not actually an issue in 2023. However, there was also an above average increase in recorded vacancies for teachers of geography and the vacancy rate is very different for the rate for history teachers, where demand is much lower. However, for 2024, the reduction in ‘offers’ may make finding even teachers of history more of a challenge next year.

The other key subject with a significant increase in demand, as measured by vacancies advertised was English. The recorded increase in vacancies was some 18%, and was entirely as a result of more recorded vacancies from schools in the state sector.

For most of the other EBacc subject groupings, the increase was in the range of 5-10% in 2023 when compared with the same time period in 2022.

However, independent sector schools as a group recorded a lower demand, as measure by vacancies advertised, during 2023. Down from 5,056 to 4,410, a reduction of 646 vacancies advertised. As will the state sector, there was not a uniform decline and some subject that were in the list of subjects in the state sector that experienced year-on-year declines in vacancy advertising did not do so in the private sector: business studies is one such subject.

The is undoubtedly an unmet demand for secondary school teachers in a range of subjects that will not be met until either recruitment into training increases or more teachers are persuaded to return to teaching in state schools. School and trust leaders would be well advised to focus their attention on retaining staff wherever possible and by whatever means as this is often a cheap option that trying to recruit a replacement member of staff.

Free School Meals and teacher vacancies

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Now that the summer term has ended it’s time to take our annual look at classroom teacher turnover by level of free school meals (FSM) in schools. Last year, in 2022, this blog looked at turnover in one shire county Teacher vacancies and Free School Meals | John Howson (wordpress.com) so, I thought I would return to look at the same county for the period 1st January 2023 to 21st July 2023. TeachVac allows that real time look at what is happening.

Last year the outcome of the research was:

January to July 2022

FSM percentageNumber of SchoolsRecorded vacanciesVacancies per school
0-9.9%1835920.0
10-20%1438727.6
20%+  628146.0
Source: TeachVac

For January to July 2023

FSM percentageNumber of SchoolsRecorded vacanciesVacancies per school
0-9.9%1221317.75
10-20%1947425.00
20%+  922124.50
Source: TeachVac

This is recognized to be a very crude measure, partly because schools are of different sizes and also because of the fact that new schools may be appointing staff for the first time. What, however, is interesting is the fact that the cost of living crisis, even in a shire county in the south of England, may have resulted in a decrease in schools in the group of schools with the lowest FSM percentages. The remaining schools in this group has seen the recorded vacancies per school fall compared with the same period in 2022.

There has also been a significant fall in vacancies per school among the highest group, where vacancies per school have nearly halved. Is this down to better vacancy management and cost control as schools now recognize that for some subjects it is pointless just repeatedly advertising for a teacher? Has the profile of this group of schools also changed, as three more schools have joined the group?

If the 14-18 school is removed from the table, the vacancy per school for the 20%+ FSM group increases to 26.9 this year. Still a big improvement on 2022, but maintaining the profile of higher percentage of FSM pupil school experiencing more vacancies and either higher turnover or more difficulties in filling posts than schools with lower FSM percentages.

Many of the schools within the shire county boundary are in one large local MAT that now takes recruitment seriously, so it may well be that the decrease in vacancies recorded, from 1,027 to 908, is as a result of better vacancy management, especially since pupil numbers have been on the increase over the two years.

Across all the schools the most advertised subjects were:

Science 146 recorded advertisements

Mathematics 115 recorded advertisements

Design & Technology 113 recorded advertisements – including one school with 22 recorded advertisements in this subject

English 104 recorded advertisements

In the humanities, there were 56 recorded advertisements for teachers of geography, but only 21 for teachers of history. 15 schools had no recorded advertisement for a teacher of history.

So, in 2023 the link between FSM and teacher turnover is weaker in this geographical area than it was in 2022. This seems to be down to a combination of increased percentages of FSM, as the cost of living crisis increases, and perhaps a better handle on recruitment in one of the large MATs. How to disseminate the message across all schools that vacancy management matters is an interesting question? Is there a role for the Schools’ Forum or the regional Director?

TeachVac’s index shows depth of teacher recruitment crisis

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How bad is the recruitment crisis in teaching? That is the question everyone is asking. This blog has suggested that the situation is dire. But what data do we have to support such a position? An index created by TeachVac eight years ago looks at the number of trainees in the DfE census each year that might be looking for a teaching post. Some trainees, such as Teach First and other salaried trainees can be assumed to be already in the classroom, and so not job hunting for the September after the census date. In addition, some trainees in the census either won’t finish the course or will opt to stay in higher education or indeed find a teaching post overseas or even a job outside of teaching.

The number that is left has been called the ‘free pool’ available for teaching posts across state and private schools and sixth form colleges. How quickly that pool is reduced by the number of vacancies demonstrates the balance between supply and demand in the teacher labour market.

When recruitment into ITT is good, the depletion of the ‘pool’ is slower than when recruitment misses the targets, assuming no change in demand. Add increasing pupil numbers and funding that allows for a constant class size in the face of increasing pupil numbers, and demand for teachers will increase. Decreasing pupil numbers, as in the primary sector at present, will reduce the demand for teachers when funding is so closely driven by pupil numbers.

What does the change in the index look like between the first week in June in 2021 and 2023 that is the first measurement point aft the 31st May resignation date.

Subject202120222023
History755433
PE724731
Art6334-22
Maths42-13-74
English53-20-102
All Sciences48-40-113
Music36-48-128
RE41-60-151
Languages52-58-129
Computing20-79-216
Geography57-91-96
Business Studies-38-215-337
D&T-17-409-278
Source: TeachVac

Apart from geography, where recruitment into ITT has improved somewhat, and design and technology where schools seem finally to have accepted that advertising vacancies is a waste of money, in all other subjects there has been a significant worsening of the index. In June 2021, all subjects bar business studies and design and technology were still in positive territory. This week, only PE and history are still positive, and both at less than half their levels of 2021. With reduced targets for 2023 in these two subjects, this time next year they may well also be in negative territory on the index.

The index matters, because it provides a useful indicator for schools that are still recruiting for September or will need to recruit for January 2024. Returning teachers and teachers switching schools will be the main source of supply for these vacancies, along with any teachers that can be attracted from overseas. The need for overseas teachers may explain the enthusiasm for this route within the DfE. Whether the Minister responsible for migration is as keen is another matter that need not concern us here.

Physics looks like a success story

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This morning the DfE published the data on applications for postgraduate ITT courses up to the 15th May 2023. As ever, the key table at this time of year is the number of offers that have been made to candidates. The good news is that the 469 offers in physics represents the highest number in May since 2015/16, albeit the total is only nine above that in May 2021. Still, we must celebrate good news where it is to be found. However, the 469 offers still means that the target for the year will likely be missed by a long way unless there is an influx of new graduates over the next three months wanting to train as a teacher of physics.

Elsewhere, design and technology as a subject is also doing well compared with the dreadful lows of recent years. Mathematics, geography computing, chemistry and modern languages are all subjects that have bounced back from last year’s incredibly low levels, but have yet to recover to pre-pandemic levels of offer for this point in the recruitment cycle.

There is less good news in the arts, with art, religious education, music and history recording their worst offer levels for a decade. Business Studies is also recording a low level of offers. Drama, classics and the catch-all of ‘other’ are also recording lower levels of offer than last year.

Both physical education and history that have provided a buffer of new entrants through over-recruitment in the past seem less likely to do so this year. Indeed, history with only 721 offers – the lowest number of offers in May since before 2013/14 – might end up being classified as a shortage subject for the first time in recorded memory.

Applications for primary courses remain subdued with 33,392 applications compared with 35,401 in May 2022. Overall, candidate numbers were 32,481 this May, compared with 28,977 in May 2022. On the face of it, this is also good news. However, ‘Rest of the world’ applications are up from 2,310 in May 2022 to 5,781 this May and those from the EEA from 411 to 485. The 3,545 extra applications from these two areas outside of the United Kingdom may account for all the 3,500 additional applications this May compared with May 2022. Certainly, there are fewer applications from the London area this year. However, there are more applications across most of the north of England and the Midlands.

Young new graduates are still not being attracted to teaching in the same numbers as previously. Applications from those age 21 or under are still lower than in May 2022, as are applications form those age 22. It is not until the 25-29 age-group that the upturn in applications becomes apparent. The decline in applications for primary courses may be reflected in this trend to fewer young applicants to teaching.

Perhaps related to the geographical distribution of applications is the increase in rejections; up from 22,136 in May 2022 to 33,580 in May 2023. Numbers actually ‘recruited’ have fallen from 1,519 to 1,102 this May. However, perhaps because of the many bank holidays, the number of applications awaiting provider decisions has increased sharply. Next month should provide a clearer picture about the trend in ‘offers’ for September 2023.

Despite the limited good news in some subjects this recruitment round looks as if it will be another one where targets are missed and schools recruiting for September 2024 will again face a challenging labour market unless the STRB report and the rumour of a 6.5% pay award boosts recruitment over the next three months.

Mixed news on ITT applications

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At a first glance, the data on postgraduate ITT applications and acceptances for February 2023, released this morning by the DfE, looks like good news. Overall applications are up from 51,745 in February 2022 to 56,704 this February, and applicant numbers are up from 19,933 to 21,208 for the same dates in 2022 and 2023.

However, it is important to look behind these headline numbers at two other facts. Firstly, there is a sharp difference in the behaviour of candidates by age groups. There are fewer candidates under the age of 29 this year when compared with last February. The key undergraduate group of age ‘21 and under’ are shown as 3,601 this February, whereas it was 3,778 in February 2022. However, the number of candidates in the 30 to 35 age grouping is up from 2,044 last February to 2,565 in February 2023.

The second point to note is the geographic distribution of candidates. Those from the London region are down from 3,231 to 2,885, whereas those shown as from the ‘rest of the world’ have increased from 1,427 in February 2022 to 3,524 this February. The overall increase in candidates is 1,275 (from 19,933 to 21,208) but the increase from the ‘Rest of the World’ is 2,097 (from 1,427 to 3,524).  

The effect of this change in the location of candidates can be seen in the total applications by phase and subject. Applications for primary phase courses have remained constant at 23,355 compared with 23,967 in February 2022. For the secondary phase, applications have increased from 27,134 to 32,014. However, not all subjects have benefitted from more applications. Art and design; Classics; drama; history; music; physical education and religious education are all showing fewer applications this February than in February 2022.

The good news is that design and technology and physics have recorded more offers than last year. In the case of design and technology, offer levels are the best for February since February 2017. Modern Languages; geography; English; chemistry, biology and business studies have also recorded better ‘offer’ levels than last February. However, numbers are not yet sufficient to be confident to be assured that overall targets will be reached by the end of the recruitment round and the high level of applicants from overseas must be a matter for consideration. A breakdown of overseas versus home applicants by subject would be helpful.

 Overall, fewer candidates have been recruited, (458 against 572) and fewer have offers with conditions pending, (9,827 compared to 10,503). Both the number of candidates rejected and withdrawn are above the February 2022 numbers.

The has been an increase in applicants recorded as ‘male’ from 5,559 to 6,704, whereas applications from ‘females’ have reduced from 14,402 to 14,289.

The question is whether we are seeing a loss of young UK- based female applicants to teaching and their being replaced by older males domiciled outside the United Kingdom. Teaching is increasingly a global profession, and QTS from the DfE may be seen as a valuable qualification. However, the question must be asked whether this trend will solve the teacher supply crisis in England?

ITT applications better: but not good enough

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Despite this week being a holiday period for most people, the DfE has published the data about ITT applications up to 19th December 2022. This is the second monthly set of data about applications for 2023 courses. While December is still too early to be certain about the outcome of the recruitment round, it is now possible to see the strength of the interest in teaching as a graduate career at the start of the recruitment round.

The headline is that as far as offers are concerned most subjects have made more offers that at this time last year, but generally fewer than in December 2020. However, some subjects such as religious education, computing, drama, history and physical education have made fewer offers than in December 2021. For history and physical education, the number of offers is probably not of concern since traditionally both these subjects over-recruit against any DfE number supplied for the Teacher Supply Model. For the other subjects, the lack of offers this early must be of some concern since they failed to reach expected levels last year, and the mountain is now looking even steep to climb during 2023.

The total number of applicants by 22nd December was 12,897 compared with 12,310 on the 20th December 2021. This year the applicants generated 33,688 applications compared with 32,016 at December 2021. It is welcome that both these numbers are up this year, but the increase is not enough to suggest that there will not be concern about meeting targets during 2023.

More worryingly, only 196 applicants have been ‘recruited’, although the number of candidates with ‘conditions pending’ is similar to the number in December 2021. Fortunately, the number of candidates that have received and offer and are yet to respond is up by several hundred on the December 2021 figure.

The total number of applications for secondary courses is up on December 2021, by around 2,000 while the number of applications for primary courses is down by nearly a thousand to 14,500. More disturbingly, the number of unsuccessful applications for secondary courses is up from 8,377 in December 2021 to 9,654 this year. Some of these applicants may still find a place though the Apply 2 route later in the recruitment round.

More than 10% of candidates this year are classified as having applied from ‘the rest of the world’. The increase in this group masks the fall in applicants from London; the South East and the East of England regions. As these three regions are the parts of England struggling most to recruit teachers, the loss of potential candidates for 2023 is a matter of concern although applications to these regions are higher than last year, possibly boosted by the increase in overseas applicants.

Applications from candidates age 22, probably recent graduates or those graduating in 2023 are slightly down, applications from most other age groups are at similar levels to last year.

Higher Education courses remain buoyant, with all other types of courses also recording more applications. Of the 196 applicants so far ‘recruited’, 181 have been recruited by higher education providers to their courses.

Two swallows don’t make a summer, and two months data may not represent the rest of the application round, but, unless there is a significant upturn in applicants to secondary courses during the first eight months of 2023, the outlook for courses in autumn 2023 will not be much better than the dismal numbers recorded in the recent DfE ITT Census for courses that started in autumn of 2022. Such an outcome would imply another challenging labour market for secondary schools in 2024 that is unless school funding for future pay awards was such as to drive down demand for teachers to cover the increased pay awards.

More on the ITT census

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It is a fair comment to say that comparing this year’s data on trainees with last year doesn’t take into account the covid pandemic effect. Because it could well be so, I have looked back at trainee numbers reported in autumn 2019, before we had ever heard of the term covid, and compared those trainee numbers with the current ITT census

2019/202022/2322/23 compared with 19/20
SubjectPostgraduate total new entrants to ITTPostgraduate total new entrants to ITT
Biology1,937664-1273
English2,9071,762-1145
Geography1,317656-661
Modern Foreign Languages1,387726-661
History1,4601,134-326
Mathematics2,1591,844-315
Religious Education494341-153
Computing472348-124
Physics527444-83
Classics7158-13
Chemistry770758-12
Music312301-11
Design & Technology43345017
Drama29432935
Business Studies18523247
Art & Design41347865
Physical Education1,2811,405124
Other282426144
STEM Subjects5,8654,058-1807
EBacc Subjects13,0078,394-4613
Non-EBacc Secondary Subjects3,6943,962268
Primary12,21610,868-1348
Secondary16,70112,356-4345
Total28,91723,224-5693
Source DfE ITT census

The good news is that six subjects recruited more trainees this year than in 2019/2020, providing a total of 432 additional trainees in secondary subjects to offset against the more than 4,500 fewer trainees in other key subjects. Now, some of the reductions may be due to changes in targets in popular subjects, but with over recruitment still possible it is difficult to see why providers would take that approach.

The chaos that is science recruitment continues, with biology providing nearly 1,300 fewer teachers this year. Do we need a ‘general science’ category, and for all science trainees to receive similar bursaries if that is still the favoured route to attract new teachers?

The decline in trainees in English, so that there are this year fewer trainees this year than in mathematics and more than 1,000 fewer than in 2019/20, must be of concern as must be the collapse in Modern Foreign Languages trainees, especially if we are to remain a trading nation, not only with the EU, but across the world. Whatever happened to Mr Gove’s 5,000 Mandarin teachers?

Is it good news that the decline in design and technology and business studies has stopped or should we still be worried that the decline has been arrested at such low levels?

The decline in primary trainee numbers must partly reflect the decline in the birth rate and the expected continued decline in the primary school population. Nevertheless, this sort of overall number may cause some local staffing issues for the sector unless the trainee numbers are well spread across England to meet the needs of all primary schools.

There may be a glimmer of good news in the fact that non-Ebacc subjects fared better than Ebacc subjects over the period. Might this be providing a portent of a change in the overall labour market that with the coming recession might meant that this years’ numbers really were the bottom of the cycle? The first set of applications data should provide clues for the 2024 recruitment round when the DfE issues them; hopefully next week.

ITT disaster

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Congratulations to the DfE. The ITT Census of trainees published this morning Initial teacher training: trainee number census 2022 to 2023 – GOV.UK (www.gov.uk) shows a lower percentages of trainees this year compared with last year in every secondary subject except design and technology. In that subject there was an increase from 23% of target to 25% this year.

These trainee numbers are grim news for secondary schools that will be looking to recruit teachers for September 2023, and January 2024. Retention of existing staff must be high on the agenda for school leaders.

Even if all trainees were to complete their courses, and want to work in state schools, there would only be 444 physics teachers entering the market. Allow for in-course wastage and a proportion working either in private schools or Sixth Form Colleges and there may only be around 300 or so looking to work as physics teachers next September in State Schools.

Even in history and physical education, where over-recruitment to target continued again this year, actual trainee numbers appear to be down on last year, with a combined loss of around 600 potential teachers.

Overall, just 59% of secondary target places have been filled this year, even after taking the over-recruitment into account. Physics, as predicted by Jack Worth at NfER and suggested by this both reached only 17% of target.

Modern Foreign Languages slumped from 71% 0f target last year to just 34% of target this year. Even biology, usual a banker for good recruitment in the sciences only managed 85% of total this year.

What should the DfE do now? The bursary scheme isn’t working, and is inefficient and difficult to market. Perhaps it is time to revert to offering a salary during training to all trainees allowing them to build-up pension credits and making career switching more attractive. Some decisions must be taken, otherwise the levelling up agenda is dead in the water as far as schools are concerned.

More later as the whole dataset is reviewed.