A tale of two markets

Posted on August 2, 2023 by John Howson

The Labour Market for Teachers in England – January to July 2023 (part one) overview

The months between January and July each year witness the majority of the advertisements for teachers each year. This is because the labour market is skewed towards appointments for the start of the school-year in September.

In a normal year, not affected by factors such as a pandemic, around three quarters to 80% of vacancies are advertised during the first seven months of the year, with the largest number of advertisements being placed during the three months between March and May; with the peak usually occurring some weeks after the Easter holidays.

TeachVac has been recording vacancies advertised by schools through their websites since 2014. The decade can be separated out into three phases; from 2014 to 2019; 2020 and 2021, the covid years, and 2022 and 2023. The last two years have seen a significant change in the volume of vacancies advertised. This trend will be discussed in more detail later.

The demand for teachers depends upon a number of different factors, and that demand can be satisfied in a number of different ways. The most important factor is the school population. Increasing pupil numbers require more teachers, unless teaching groups are to increase in size. Obviously, falling rolls mean less demand, and in extreme cases can even lead to teacher redundancies.

The level of funding of schools also plays a part. Increased resources for schools can result in an increased demand for teaching staff; restrictions on funding can reduce demand for replacements when staff leave. Within the funding envelope, the cost of the salary bill can have a significant bearing on staffing levels. For instance, an under-funded pay settlement can reduce demand for staff as more funds are spent on paying the existing staffing complement. For the private school sector, the demand for places and the payment of fees has the same effect. More demand for places means there is likely to be a demand for more teachers

The third key factor affecting the level of advertisements is the state of the market. A good supply of teachers means most vacancies will be filled at first advertisement or event these days without an advertisement at all. However, if there is a challenging labour market, perhaps because of a shortage of either new entrants or returners, or an increase in departures from teaching in schools in England, then these factors can result in an increase in advertisements, as vacancies not filled are re-advertised. This may be one the factors behind the increase in vacancies recorded in 2022, because in many secondary subjects the numbers entering the profession from training were less than required by the DfE’s Teacher Supply Model.

So, what of the first seven months of 2023? The tables below show the record of vacancies as measured by advertisements for schools in England

2022
	Primary			Secondary			Overall
	Indep	State	Total	Indep	State	Total	Total
Classroom	1191	17449	18640	5056	34901	39957	58597
Promoted post	198	1664	1862	1655	11921	13576	15438
Assistant Head	27	776	803	82	1368	1450	2253
Deputy head	48	891	939	123	762	885	1824
Head teacher	15	1469	1484	32	365	397	1881
Grand Total	1479	22249	23728	6948	49317	56265	79993

2023	Primary			Secondary			Overall
	Indep	State	Total	Indep	State	Total	Total
Classroom	796	15409	16205	4410	38432	42842	59047
Promoted post	123	1357	1480	1266	13634	14900	16380
Assistant Head	13	586	599	67	1346	1413	2012
Deputy head	37	723	760	95	767	862	1622
Head teacher	19	1259	1278	29	358	387	1665
Grand Total	988	19334	20322	5867	54537	60404	80726
	Primary			Secondary			Overall
	Indep	State	Total	Indep	State	Total	Total
Change 2023 on 2022	-491	-2915	-3406	-1081	5220	4139	733
% change	-33%	-13%	-14%	-16%	11%	7%	1%

Source: TeachVac

The key feature to note is that there was little change between 2022 and 2023. Overall, the number of vacancies, as measured by advertisements, increased by one per cent in 2023 when compared with 2022. This was an overall increase of 733 advertisements from 79,993 to 80726.

However, the overall total hides two very different picture for the different sectors. Advertisements for teachers and school leaders in the primary sector fell from 23,728 in the first seven months of 2022 to20,322 in the same period of 2023: a fall of 14%.

The fall in the primary sector affected vacancies at all levels except for headteachers in the independent sector, where a small increase in advertisements was recorded in 2023 when compared with 2022.

Advertised vacancies for classroom teachers declined from 18,640 in 2022 to 16,205 in 2023, with both the state and independent school sectors recording a fall in advertisements.

In the secondary sector, the position was very different. Overall, the recorded number of advertisements increased from 56,265 in 2022 to 60,404 in the first seven months of 2023. Within the secondary sector, the increase was not universal. The independent school sector recorded a fall in advertisements for most posts, whereas state sector secondary schools recorded an increase for classroom teachers and promoted posts, but little change in the number of vacancies for leadership posts.

Further posts will explore the different categories in more detail.

Congratulations to The North East

Posted on July 20, 2023 by John Howson

The DfE has published data around revised numbers on the first cohort and provisional numbers in the second cohorts of Early Career Framework and National Professional Qualifications starting in 2022-23. The data is for both Early Career Framework and National Professional Qualifications (ECF and NPQs). Teacher and Leader development: ECF and NPQs, Academic year 2022/23 – Explore education statistics – GOV.UK (explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk)

In this blog I look at some of the percentages around the National Professional Qualification for Teacher and Leader Development.

As might be expected, starts have increased from 5.5% of the workforce to 6.4% or close to 35,000 teachers.

	Teacher Leader Development
	NPQs
Characteristic	2022-23
Headteacher	8.54%
Deputy Head	10.27%
Assistant Head	10.39%
Classroom	5.61%
Secondary	6.04%
Primary	6.61%
Female	6.26%
Male	6.82%
Black	7.46%
Asian	5.48%
North East	7.46%
Hartlepool	10.16%

DfE csv file all data

In view of some of the recent comments that teachers are not interested in leadership positions, it is interesting to see that over one in ten assistant or deputy heads registered for an NPQ this year. The region with the highest overall percentage registering was the North East at 7.46%, with Hartlepool local authority area topping the list at 10.16% of the workforce. By comparison, Hampshire was recorded at just 3.81%. Hampshire is a part of the country that has had issues recruiting primary school head teachers for some of its schools in recent times.

The percentage from the ‘black’ ethnic group was, at 7.46%, above the national overall average, whereas the percentage for the Asian ethnic group, at 5.48%, was below the overall average.

Despite the greater numbers of deputy and assistant heads in the secondary sector, the primary sector at 6.61% recorded a percentage of the workforce enrolled that was above that for the secondary sector’s 6.04%.

Perhaps not surprisingly, the age grouping with the highest percentage, at 8.13%, was the 30-39 age grouping. This is the grouping where promotion through the grades is most likely for those seeking a career in leadership.

The percentage for Early Career Teachers shows that most started on provider-led courses with less than 5% on school-led provision. My anxiety with the ECT is not the numbers that started but the provision for those, most likely in the primary sector, that might not have started teaching until January 2023. Were they able to access the ECT framework from the start.

As I have pointed out in the past, if the market model of teacher supply works correctly, then the least successful trainees will take the longest to find teaching posts and may constitute a significant proportion of the January entrants into classroom teaching. This group would obviously benefit from access straightaway to the ECF. Indeed, for those searching for teaching post in the autumn, but not yet successful, should there be some means of support and continued development during this extended period of job hunting so that they do not lose the degree of skills developed during their training?

Ethnic Minority Head Teachers: scant progress

Posted on July 15, 2023 by John Howson

In October 2021, I wrote a blog about the number of ethnic minority head teachers ‘We need more black headteachers in our schools’ | John Howson (wordpress.com) I thought it was time to bring the data up to date.

Year	Ethnic minority Head teachers (including white minorities)
2015/2016	1,473
2016/2017	1,480
2017/2018	1,512
2018/2019	1,531
2019/2020	1,530
2020/2021	1,532
2021/2022	1,564
2022/2023	1,627

Source Annual School Workforce Census

Despite the increase of 63 in the total number of these head teachers between November 2021 and November 2022, and including all minority groups not classified as ‘White British’ in the total, there were apparently only 1,627 head teachers self-identified as from minority backgrounds in November 2022. This an increase of only around 10%, or just 154 additional head teachers from minority backgrounds, over the eight years represented in the table. There may be more, because the number that refused to answer the question increased from 117 to 192 during the same period.

During the same period, the total of ‘White’ head teachers only changed from 19,520 in November 2019 to 19,104 in November 2022.

There is better news on the ITT front, where ITT undergraduate entrants from minority ethnic groups increased from 12% to 17% of the total intake between 2019/2020 and 2022/2023. For those on postgraduate courses, the increase in the percentage was from 19% to 22% during the same period. However, I suspect that the distribution was skewed towards certain parts of the country. Sadly, we don’t easily have access to that data.

The discussion at the Select Committee last Tuesday about discrimination and unconscious bias meaning that more ethnic minority applicants were not offered places mirrored the finding from the two studies that I conducted for the then National College. Progress is being made, but slowly. My research also found that ethnic minority applicants fared better when there were fewer applicants to select from, as there was in most subjects last year. What will happen if the economy slows and the number of applicants for ITT increases once again?

Given that boys from an African Caribbean background do relatively poorly in our schooling system, it would also be interesting to know whether there is more of a challenge recruiting men form minority backgrounds than there is recruiting women and whether certain subjects struggle more than others? How many physics ITT recruits came for ethnic minority backgrounds in each of the last five years, and were they recruited mainly from a small number of courses. If they aren’t in the pipeline of learning then they won’t be there to become teachers of future generations.

For over a quarter of a century we have been urging women into science, engineering and other STEM subjects. Should we now look to do the same with other under-represented groups. As a large employer of graduates, does teaching have a responsibility to not just recruit graduates but also to influence the pipeline. After all that pipeline starts in schools.

Sad end to term

Posted on July 10, 2023 by John Howson

It is now more than nine years since a teacher died after being stabbed in her classroom by a pupil. The news today from Tewksbury reminds us that although rare, and nowhere near as common as such incidents in the USA, teaching is not an entirely risk-free activity, as I know from personal experience.

My thoughts and best wishes are with the stabbed teacher, their family and any pupils that witnessed the attack. I hope the teacher was no badly hurt. Below, is the post I wrote when the teacher was stabbed to death in her classroom in 2014.

Condolences | John Howson (wordpress.com)

Condolences

Posted on April 28, 2014

The news of the stabbing to death of a teacher in Leeds is both truly shocking and saddening at the same time. Fortunately, such deaths in schools are rare in the United Kingdom, and it is no small irony that this fatality happened in a Roman Catholic school in a challenging area just as the death nearly 20 years ago of head teacher Philip Lawrence did in north Westminster. We may live in a post-Christian society, but the Churches still offer education in many of the more disadvantaged areas of our country.

My thoughts and condolences are with the family and friends of the teacher, as well as the pupils and those that work at the school, and the wider local community. Nearly 40 years ago, I was the victim of a classroom stabbing by an intruder that could in different circumstances have ended in a fatality. As a result, I can understand something of the grief such an unexpected event give rise to. Fortunately, unlike in my day, there will no doubt be extensive counselling offered to all concerned. I don’t know the circumstances of this stabbing, except that the news bulletin says that it was a female teacher in her 60s who presumably had been at the school for some time. More will no doubt come out over the next few days and then at the subsequent trial.

The Court of Appeal has recently taken a tough stand on the carrying of knives, and rightly so if we are to reduce the incidence of violence still further in society. But, despite all the draconian laws it is impossible to entirely prevent attacks where there is a will to do violence to another.

Finally, perhaps the Secretary of State might consider a memorial in the new offices for the DfE after they move to Whitehall in 2017* that recognises the sacrifice of the small band of teachers that have given their lives to their profession. There may not be many of them, but they deserve not to be forgotten.

*Such a move never took place, but the idea of a memorial might still be worth considering.

STRB and teacher recruitment

Posted on July 9, 2023 by John Howson

Before 2015, the STRB (School Teachers’ Pay Review Body) used to report no later than March in most years, School Teachers’ Review Body (STRB) reports – GOV.UK (www.gov.uk) However, since the Conservative Party took over the sole management of the country in 2015, the publication of the STRB’s annual report, along with other pay body reports, has moved to July each year.

Such a date, so late in the annual government business cycle, at a point where departments should already be gearing up the next round of economic arguments within government, is unhelpful in many ways.

Obviously, it leaves The Treasury unsure about government expenditure, assuming the suggestions of the STRB are both accepted and fully funded. If one or other of those assumptions isn’t correct, but pay scales are increased from the September, then it places a burden on schools to find the cash to pay any increases, as I discussed in an earlier post. Sunak’s blunt axe | John Howson (wordpress.com)

The lack of clarity around starting salaries also makes recruitment into the profession potentially more challenging. A significant proportion of those entering the profession are still required to make a financial sacrifice to train as a teacher. To do so not knowing what either the possible salary they will receive during training – if paid on the unqualified scale – or their potential starting salary, if on a fee-paying course, is not an incentive to enter teaching. This may be specially the case for the important group of career switchers that are needed during the present dip in the number of new home-based graduates in their early 20s.

Once the new generation of graduates from the last baby boomer generation exits university, in a few years’ time, this may be less of an issue, assuming higher education entry rates hold up, and those most likely to become teachers don’t opt for apprenticeships or direct entry into the labour market and a salary immediately after leaving school.

Governments have always faced economic crises, lucky the Chancellor with benign economic headwinds, and must take difficult decisions. 101 years ago, the Liberal Government faced with the massive increase in government expenditure sanctioned by a government to fight the first world war, and seeking to restrain sky-high rates of taxation, looked for areas where public expenditure could be reduced – or cut – an exercise known after the chairman of the committee, Lord Geddes.

Perhaps, The Labour Party’s Leader’s speech on the ‘class ceiling’ was no accident, because it is those trying to crash through the ceiling that experience the worse outcomes of any pay restraint that leaders to teacher shortages. As I pointed in an earlier post, out, identifying the issue is one thing; solving it needs policies, and they were in short-supply in the speech from Sir Kier Starmer last week.

Perhaps, as suggested in the 1920s, rather than just telling schools to save money, the government might be more draconian in enforcing savings to pay for increased pay. But then, this, sadly, isn’t an area where the present government has had a good track record in recent times.

Missions still need funding

Posted on July 6, 2023 by John Howson

In February, Sir Keir Starmer outlined his five missions for the Labour Party – one wonders, will they appear on a pledge card, as once before – and the fifth one was ‘raising education standards’ according to a BBC report at the time Keir Starmer unveils Labour’s five missions for the country – BBC News

After a recent announcement about teachers, dealt with in my blog at Labour’s style over substance | John Howson (wordpress.com) came a Leader’s speech today on the subject of what the Labour Party would do about policy for education.

In reality, education seemed to mean schooling, skills and early years, if the press reports are to be believed. Interestingly, the BBC has now substituted the word ‘pledge’ for the term ‘mission’. An example of ‘word creep’, perhaps? Actually, it seems more like sloppy journalism if the text of the speech is to be believed, as it starts by referring to ‘mission’ not pledge. Read: Full Keir Starmer mission speech on opportunity, education and childcare – LabourList

At the heart of the speech seems to be these two questions

‘So these are the two fundamental questions we must now ask of our education system: are we keeping pace with the future, preparing all our children to face it?

And – are we prepared to confront the toxic divides that maintain the class ceiling?’

The speech was about class and opportunity as a means of raising standards. Sir Keir has clearly moved on form the famous ‘rule of three’ and now favour a five-point approach, so we had

Apart from the already announced increase in teacher numbers and the retention bonus, there was little about either how the new education age would be delivered or how it would be paid for. No pledge to level up post 16 funding, so badly hit under the present government.

Plans for Early Years

Oracy to build confidence

A review of the National Curriculum for the new digital age

The importance of vocational and work-related studies

Tackling low expectations

There was little for any progressive politician to take issue with in the speech, but little to demonstrate the drive to accomplish the fine words. Re-opening Children’s Centres will come at a price, as will changing the curriculum.

There was nothing to show how resources will be channelled into areas of deprivation and under-performance. Will Labour continue the Conservative idea of Opportunity Areas that do nothing for pockets of underperformance in affluent areas or will it revive the Pupil Premium introduced by the Lib Dems, when part of the coalition, ascheme that identified individual need, wherever it was to be found.

I think I still prefer the 2015 approach from the Liberal Democrats to end illiteracy within 10 years: something that can be measured, rather than the more nebulous ‘raising of standards’ offered by Sir Kier.

Finally, from the Labour Party that introduced tuition fees, not a word on higher education and the consequence of raising standards on the demand for places. Perhaps Labour has still to reconcile the brave new world of skills and the place of universities in the new education landscape. With higher standards will come another class ceiling at eighteen?

Labour’s style over substance

Posted on July 2, 2023 by John Howson

I woke up this morning to news that the Labour Party had some new proposals to end the teacher supply crisis. Strangely, the press release section of their national website hasn’t posted anything, so I am reliant on what the BBC has said for the following thoughts. Labour plan to give teachers £2,400 to stop them quitting – BBC News

In passing, the Labour Party website generally doesn’t seem to be up with events, something that surprised me for a national Party aiming for government. But there are some issues, such their relationship with other political parties, and stories of suspensions and expulsions of members that I am sure they would want to bury. Still, that is all for another day and another place.

What are Labour suggesting and why do I say that it is style over substance? Firstly, there is nothing to ease the pain of training. No fee payments, as agreed when Tuition Fees were introduced by Tony Blair’s government. This would have been an excellent opportunity for a headline along the lines -well it’s not up to me to do Labour’s work for them.

Instead of targeting trainees and entrants, we get a survivor bonus according to the BBC story

The plans to improve retention rates, announced by Labour’s shadow education secretary Bridget Phillipson on Sunday, would see new incentive payments awarded once teachers had completed a training programme known as the Early Career Framework, which covers their first two years in the classroom.

Apparently, the payment would be £2,400 or only between a gross one-off five to ten per cent payment of what a teacher would be earning at that point in time, before tax, national insurance and pension deductions. Less, with a £30,000 starting salary. Paying this to all survivors, regardless of the help or salary they received during training would according to Labour cost £50 million. I wonder what paying fees and a training salary to make all trainees equal, and it easier for career changers to become a teacher, would cost?

Labour’s other key promise is welcome, but even more hollow when you burrow down into what it means in reality.

The [Labour} party says it would also make it compulsory for new teachers to have a formal teaching qualification or be working towards one – a requirement scrapped by the coalition in 2012.

Sure, Gove made a headline announcement that academies did not need to employ qualified teachers: and most academies ignored this freedom, as they often did with the freedom to pay classroom teachers different salaries. However, it hasn’t stopped all schools employing unqualified teachers when they cannot find a qualified one to fill a post. After all, it was the Labour government that changed the name of these staff from ‘instructors’ that clearly demonstrated that they were not qualified teachers, to the more positive term ‘unqualified teachers’, and also created a pay scale for them.

Curiously, there were fewer unqualified teachers by headcount working in schools last Novermber (2022) than in November 2010, the first census after the end of the last Labour government – 14,389 in 2022 compared with 15,892 in November 2010 according to the DfE’s Workforce Census.

Ensuring all teachers are qualified, and qualified in teaching their subject or phase, something the Labour announcement doesn’t offer, must be a requirement. However, Labour doesn’t say what schools, faced with a vacancy, should do if a qualified teacher isn’t available: send children home? The lack of a credible answer to this question makes the policy no more than idle rhetoric about trainee teachers not about solving the teacher supply crisis.

I would offer emergency certification with a required training programme from day one for unqualified teachers, including those not qualified in the subject that they are teaching.

Labour final policy on staff development is again good in principle; this area has been neglected by the present government, despite the limited experience of much of the teaching force. However, the policy lacks detail, and detailing who will be responsible for implementing and paying for it?

Taking tax breaks away from private schools would probably affect the special school sector, where local authorities mostly pay the fees, more than schools where parents are responsible for the fees. Such saving would also probably be stretched thinly to pay for all the mooted changes.

Retention can be cheaper than recruitment, but by making training more attractive for all, there is more chance that schools currently unable to recruit teachers would fill their vacancies. All too often these schools are situated in the more deprived areas. These are the schools any policy should be tested against: does it improve the education of children in these schools?

For those that don’t know, I am a Liberal Democrat County Councillor in Oxfordshire

All agreed then: there is a teacher recruitment and retention crisis

Posted on June 20, 2023 by John Howson

The House of Commons Education Select Committee held its first oral evidence session this morning as part of its inquiry into recruitment and retention. The Committee discussed with representatives of the teacher and further education professional associations their views on the present state of affairs with regard to recruitment and retention.

It was not a surprise to hear all the witnesses explain that the present situation in both schools and colleges represented a crisis, and that there was no solution in sight. Interestingly, nobody mentioned the effects of any downturn in the economy on teacher recruitment – not even evidencing what happened at the start of the covid pandemic when interest in ITE increased sharply. There was also no mention of teaching as a global career and the growth of UK private schools overseas as a source of jobs for teachers.

Pay, working conditions and morale all came up, and were cited as areas where the DfE needed to take action. The fact that all four professional associations are in dispute with the DfE was mentioned, but the lack of the STRB Report received relatively little consideration.

Two issues discussed in detail were the question of school leadership and how attractive it is. There was the usual discussion about how to keep good teachers in the classroom and some statements about teachers not wanting to become head teachers. There was also a discussion about how teaching behaves in relation to ‘protected’ groups in society.

Talking the first issue on leadership, it is interesting to look at the recent data from the School Workforce Survey on deputy and assistant heads working in the primary school sector in the under 49 age groups and specifically, for assistant heads, the under 39 age groups.

		AH	DH
FEMALE	25-29	388	99
	30-39	4352	2571
	40-49	3954	4123
		8694	6793

MALE	25-29	111	43
	30-39	1108	962
	40-49	674	888
		1893	1893

NON-G	25-29	1	0
	30-39	0	2
	40-49	0	0

ALL	25-29	500	142
	30-39	5460	3535
	40-49	4628	5011
		10588	8688

There were around 6,000 assistant heads in the primary sector under the age of 40 in November 2022. That ought to be sufficient to provide candidates for deputy headships, at least at the national level.

There are somewhere around 1,500 primary headships advertised each year. With less than 4,000 deputy heads under the age of 40 that means schools will need to draw heavily on the 5,000 primary headteachers in their 40s for many vacancies. This does leave the ratio of candidates to vacancies worryingly low, especially as the recruitment round progresses, and good candidates are appointed to vacancies. I think that there is a matter for concern here that the NAHT were wise to draw the Committee’s attention to in oral evidence.

As to minority groups, there is work to be done here to encourage men, ethnic minorities and those with disabilities to take up teaching as a career. Here are a couple of links to my blogs on the topic written in past years

Are new graduate entrants to teaching still predominantly young, white and female? | John Howson (wordpress.com)

‘We need more black headteachers in our schools’ | John Howson (wordpress.com)

This is an area where clearly the DfE seems to be paying less attention than in the past. Perhaps, it shows a consequence of the lack of a dedicated unit on teacher supply, training and professional development.

Such a unit might have helped the DfE create a coherent policy to solve the current staffing crisis in our schools and colleges that should have caught nobody unawares.

Worst Secondary PTRs for a decade

Posted on June 8, 2023 by John Howson

Yesterday the DfE published the results of the School Workforce Survey, undertaken in November 2022. School workforce in England, Reporting year 2022 – Explore education statistics – GOV.UK (explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk)

The good news is that there are more teachers; the bad news is that in both the primary and secondary sectors the Pupil Teacher Ratio has worsened. Falling pupil numbers had meant that the PTR in the primary sector had been improving over the past few years from a low of 20.9 in 2018/19 to 20.9 in the 2021 census. However, in 2022 it worsened, to 20.7. Not a big change, but a change in direction nevertheless.

In the secondary sector, the PTR has been worsening for some years now. The PTR peaked at 14.8 pupils per teacher in 2013/14 and has now worsened to 16.8 at the 2022 census; a whole two pupils per teacher worse in a decade, with all the implications for teacher workload that implies. No doubt the worsening PTR and its association with class sizes will be one reason why teaching is less popular as a career.

However, for those that do enter teaching, although fewer are remaining, with the number remaining after one year of service having fallen from its high of 8.3% in 2019, just before the pandemic to 87.2% in 2021, this is still above the 84.9% of 2016. Of even more concern must be the loss of teachers with 4-7 years of service that should be starting to fill key middle leadership positions. That just 64% remain from the 2015 cohort is disturbing. Equally disturbing is the loss of teachers from earlier cohorts. This is an area where research is needed to understand the causes. Is the global nature of teaching attracting mid-career teachers to move overseas.

The other straw in the wind from the census that cannot be ignored is the sharp increase in vacancies recorded from 1,564 in 2021 to 2,334 in 2022. On the DfE’s own measure, this means that the vacancy rate for classroom teachers has increased from 0.2% in 2020/21 – no doubt influenced by the covid pandemic to 0.5% in November 2022. By comparison in the teacher shortages at the turn of the century, the vacancy rate in January 2001 (data was collected in January and not November at that time) reached 1.2%, so even allowing for the change in reporting date, the position may not be as bad yet as it was then. But there is little evidence to suggest that it will be better in November 2023, and much to suggest it might well be higher than 0.5%.

The rate of temporary filled posts has also increased sharply from 0.5% to 0.8%, although it remains below the 0.9% recorded as recently as 2016/17.

So, although overall teacher numbers have increased from 465.527 in 2022 to 468,371 in 2022: a new record high in terms of teacher FTEs in recent times, the increase has not been enough to offset increased pupil numbers in the secondary sector and other changes in demand.

Bad news for January vacancies

Posted on June 3, 2023 by John Howson

The May 31^st date for teacher resignations has come and gone. This year it has excited some interest in the press, as they have finally caught on to the thread this blog has been running ever since the DfE’s ITT census was published last September: namely, this this was going to be brutal recruitment round, and that there would not be enough teachers to meet the demands from schools seeking to fill vacancies for September 2023.

So far this week TeachVac has provided data for both tes and schoolsweek, and had calls on the subject from national newspapers as well. One group that has been conspicuously silent has been the House of Commons Select committee on Education that instituted an inquiry into teacher recruitment and retention on the 20^th March, and required evidence by the 21^st April: since when silence. I know that the Committee normally meets on a Monday, and that there have been a lot of Monday bank holidays, but not to even have considered whether any of the evidence was worth publishing for more than a month does seem a little strange.

Anyway, this blog isn’t about the Select Committee, but about schools faced with unexpected January vacancies. Last year, between the 1^st November 2022 and the end of December, secondary schools posted 7,857 vacancies according to TeachVac www.teachvac.co.uk That was a 53% increase in the number of vacancies recorded during this period when compared with the same period in 2021. Geography teachers were particularly in demand.

Whether in the autumn of 2023 it is the 7,857 vacancies of 2022 or just the 5,136 of 2021, schools will struggle to fill these vacancies, regardless of the subject. Some schools will struggle more than others. Indeed, previous analysis by TeachVac of the data, as reported on this blog, has shown that secondary schools with high percentages of pupils on free school meals tend to place more adverts for teachers than either private schools or state schools with low numbers of pupils claiming free school meals.

What can be done to help? If, as seems likely to be the case, there are more primary school teachers looking for jobs this year than there are posts available, could there be a one-term conversion course established for the autumn term, along the lines of the subject conversion courses for those lacking the full qualifications to enter ITT in a particular subject.

The primary to secondary course would be different in that the teachers would be qualified. For such a course to work the teachers would probably need to be paid a salary that made it worth their while taking part in the course. If the DfE wanted to recoup their costs they could offer schools a teacher that completed the course for the price of a recruitment advert or the amount a school would spend with an agency to find a teacher.

Such teachers could teach Key Stage 3 based upon their A level subjects and release existing teachers to cover Key Stages 4 & 5, and examination groups left without a teacher by the vacancy created or indeed left unfilled from September.

There is little time to organise such a programme, but the alternative is to saddle schools with the need to spend lots of cash chasing teachers that aren’t there in vain attempts to fill their vacancies.

Note: As a director of TeachVac www.teachvac.co.uk I am an interested party in the operation of the recruitment market. However, TeachVac’s £500 offer for listings of all vacancies for 15 months until August 2024 is substantially cheaper than other sites, especially for non-state schools that cannot access the DfE’s job board.

John Howson

Education and the numbers that affect what happens

Category Archives: leadership