Author Archives: John Howson

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About John Howson

Former county councillor in Oxfordshire and sometime cabinet member for children services, education and youth.

Reduced ITT numbers; who wins?

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A review of the detail behind last December’s DfE ITT Census can shine some interesting light on how the current recruitment crisis can affect different schools.

Broadly speaking, trainees can be classified into three groups: those in school and the classroom and receiving a salary; those on school centred courses, but not salaried and finally, those in higher education or other associated courses. The first group are most likely to be employed in the schools where they are training, and so are not considered part of the pool of job seekers for September vacancies.

The second group may be employed by the schools where they are based, and such schools are wise to consider this option.

The third group are likely to be on the free market as job seekers for September vacancies. How have the numbers differed between 2019 and 2022? I looked at the data from the DfE’s ITT Census for three regions: London; the South East and the North East regions.

London20192022
High Achievers6411393
Apprenticeships65368
School Direct Salaried Route1044285
sub total17502046
SCITT253457
School Direct Fee Route810496
sub total1063953
Higher Education837656
total36503655
Adjust for HA2900
South East20192022
High Achievers2200
Apprenticeships3397
School Direct Salaried Route577175
sub total830272
SCITT488687
School Direct Fee Route1137828
sub total16251515
Higher Education15661252
total37682942
Adjust for HA3150
North East20192022
High Achievers870
Apprenticeships1019
School Direct Salaried Route157
sub total11226
SCITT340207
School Direct Fee Route413327
sub total753534
Higher Education618375
total1483935
Adjust for HA1,000
Source DfE ITT Census as accessed by TeachVac

The first issue is that the High Achiever numbers were all allocated to the London region in the 2022 census, whereas, in 2019, they were allocated according to the region where they were located. This has the effect of inflating trainee numbers in London in 2022, and reducing them in some other regions. I have used the 2019 numbers to compensate, but it is obviously an estimate. I am not sure why the DfE has made this change, but it is unhelpful.

The second issue is that the postgraduate numbers used in the table do not distinguish between primary and secondary courses. Part of the reduction in numbers may be down to a fall in primary course targets and allocations.

However, In the London region, the change, after adjusting for the High Achiever over-counting, resulted in a small switch in percentage terms from trainees in the first group of school-based trainees to those in the second group, with the third group of higher education classified trainees remaining at 23% of the graduate total (Not all this group are universities and some may be counted in the region where a national provider has its headquarters). However, this meant a loss of nearly 200 trainees from the free market total between 2019 and 2022. This goes some way to explain the challenges schools in London dependent upon the free market for new teachers have faced this year.

In the South East region, using the adjusted figures, the free pool percentage of trainees fell from 42% to 40% in 2022. With the reduction in recruitment, this meant a loss to the free pool of some 300 trainees, about eight per cent less than the 2019 total.

In the North East, the decline in the free pool was only around 4%, from 42% to 38%, but the decline in the actual number was nearly 500 trainees. This explains why some schools in the North East are experiencing recruitment difficulties in 2023.

As I wrote, way back in 1995, in Managing Partnerships in Teacher Training and Development by Bines and Welton (Routledge, page 213) schools that become involved the teacher preparation process can be winners in times of teacher shortages. The same is as true today as it was when I first wrote those words. 

ITT: Mixed news

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The data provided by the DfE today on ITT applications and offers for postgraduate courses contained some very mixed messages. I am not sure whether the current pay dispute within the universities sector is affecting the data or whether there are genuine differences between subjects, with larger movements between May and June in offers this year than might normally be expected.

Regardless of any data collection issues, the message is the same as ever: offer levels will not be sufficient to meet targets in the majority of subjects, and the reduction in offers in physical education and history will remove the safety valve over-recruitment to high targets in these subjects have offered schools in previous years. Barring any last-minute change in July or August, it is now safe to say that the recruitment round for schools seeking to fill September vacancies next year in 2024 will be challenging unless there is an influx of returners or a reduction in leavers and better levels of retention. Of course, the whole country won’t be affected in the same way, but schools across the South East and parts of London might expect to face similar challenges to this year. You have been warned.

Religious Education and music are two subjects struggling with offers this year, even more than other subjects. Most other subjects are doing better than last year’s dreadful position, but often the offers are little different to the year before the pandemic. However, physics appears to have recovered from last year’s historic low. Whether that is reflected by the numbers arriving at the start of the course, only time will tell.

 The 38,795 applicants by mid-June 2023 compared well with the 32,609 in June 2022 and looks like a healthy increase, but numbers recruited or recruited with conditions pending, a group that will include degree classifications from many universities this year, are down on last June’s number, albeit only slightly. Nearly 2,000 more applicants are awaiting a provider’s decision, and it would be helpful to know whether the majority of those are applicants that have applied to higher education providers?

The total number of young applicants, aged under 25, is similar this year to last, so the increase is in older career switchers rather than new graduates. The number of 30–34 year-olds applying has increased from 3,545 last year to 5,088 this year. As reported previously, the big increase is in candidates for ‘the rest of the world’ – up from 2,657 last June to 7,105 applicants this June. The overall total increase masks little change in the number of applicants from most of the regions of England. However, it is worth noting that 54% of London applicants have received an offer, compared with only 15% of those in the ‘rest of the world’ group. For this reason alone, it is important not to read too much into the headline increase in the number of applicants.   

The number of offers made in the primary sector is down by 1,585 on the June 2022 figure, to just 9,182. Whether that will be enough to satisfy demand for teachers depends partly upon whether the secondary sector decides to recruit and retrain primary qualified teachers to fill their vacancies left by the reduction in history and PE teachers exiting training in 2024.

Over the summer, the DfE might like to reflect with the sector how these monthly statistics can be improved to make them more useful. We know nothing about ethnicity and little about regional breakdown of offer by subjects in the secondary sector. Both would be useful additions to the debate about whether the recruitment crisis is continuing or abating.

Ending child illiteracy by 2025: reprise

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Sometimes a visitor to this blog uncovers a previous post that is worth a reprise. I think that this post from 2015 is one such post. Many of the points hold good today, even to the issue of the Labour Party and tuition fees. Let me know in the comment section what you think.

Ending child illiteracy by 2025

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The Liberal Democrat plan to end illiteracy by 2025 announced today would mean that every child born in 2014, ought to leave primary school in 2025 able to read and write at a standard identified to lead to success in secondary school and beyond. To help them meet this commitment to end child illiteracy by 2025 the Lib Dems would boost the early years Pupil Premium to an even higher level than the primary school Pupil Premium thus recognising the vital importance of a child’s early years for learning and development.
The Lib Dems would also overhaul early years teaching qualifications by letting nursery staff work towards Qualified Teacher Status and by 2020 requiring a qualified teacher graduate in every school or nursery delivering the early years curriculum.


As a Lib Dem, I have been fighting for better early years education for decades. This aim is reminiscent of the Millennium Development goals of 2000 that sought to ensure primary education for every child throughout the world by 2015. And what’s the point of primary education if children don’t learn to read, write, count, and lay down the skills to acquire the tools they will need for their future lives as adults.
Despite a focus of attention on the lack of education success among the poor that goes back to work undertaken when Ruth Kelly was Secretary of State in the Labour government, it is still clear, as Nick Clegg pointed out, that it is those less well off in society whose children don’t make the expected levels of progress.


Labour has been hinting about cutting tuition fees if elected. As Labour was the Party that introduced them in the first place in 1997, and then increased them, requiring students to repay the cash borrowed from day one rather than when they started earning, as now, Labour must say if it favours supporting undergraduates ahead of ending illiteracy in the next parliament; it cannot do both and still stick to its spending plans.


To achieve the ambition of ending illiteracy by 2025 means providing the cash for schools and early year settings to achieve this goal. Depriving local authorities of the cash to support pre-school settings where health, welfare and education issues can be dealt with together won’t allow the goal to be achieved. Yes, the bulk of the funds should go to schools and through an early years premium, but the work needs co-ordination and that is where local authorities need funds. By all means make it a ring-fenced grant, but do not force local authorities out of supporting initiatives by cutting their funding.


Schools also need to know how to deal with that small group of parents that are indifferent to their child’s progress and don’t, can’t or won’t work with the school and pre-school setting in helping their children learn. Helping schools know what works rather than everyone re-inventing the wheel will also ensure best use of the money. Does that mean a role for local authorities?

All agreed then: there is a teacher recruitment and retention crisis

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The House of Commons Education Select Committee held its first oral evidence session this morning as part of its inquiry into recruitment and retention. The Committee discussed with representatives of the teacher and further education professional associations their views on the present state of affairs with regard to recruitment and retention.  

It was not a surprise to hear all the witnesses explain that the present situation in both schools and colleges represented a crisis, and that there was no solution in sight. Interestingly, nobody mentioned the effects of any downturn in the economy on teacher recruitment – not even evidencing what happened at the start of the covid pandemic when interest in ITE increased sharply. There was also no mention of teaching as a global career and the growth of UK private schools overseas as a source of jobs for teachers.

Pay, working conditions and morale all came up, and were cited as areas where the DfE needed to take action. The fact that all four professional associations are in dispute with the DfE was mentioned, but the lack of the STRB Report received relatively little consideration.

Two issues discussed in detail were the question of school leadership and how attractive it is. There was the usual discussion about how to keep good teachers in the classroom and some statements about teachers not wanting to become head teachers. There was also a discussion about how teaching behaves in relation to ‘protected’ groups in society.

Talking the first issue on leadership, it is interesting to look at the recent data from the School Workforce Survey on deputy and assistant heads working in the primary school sector in the under 49 age groups and specifically, for assistant heads, the under 39 age groups.

 AHDH
FEMALE25-2938899
30-3943522571
40-4939544123
86946793
MALE25-2911143
30-391108962
40-49674888
18931893
NON-G25-2910
30-3902
40-4900
ALL25-29500142
30-3954603535
40-4946285011
105888688

There were around 6,000 assistant heads in the primary sector under the age of 40 in November 2022. That ought to be sufficient to provide candidates for deputy headships, at least at the national level.

There are somewhere around 1,500 primary headships advertised each year. With less than 4,000 deputy heads under the age of 40 that means schools will need to draw heavily on the 5,000 primary headteachers in their 40s for many vacancies. This does leave the ratio of candidates to vacancies worryingly low, especially as the recruitment round progresses, and good candidates are appointed to vacancies. I think that there is a matter for concern here that the NAHT were wise to draw the Committee’s attention to in oral evidence.

As to minority groups, there is work to be done here to encourage men, ethnic minorities and those with disabilities to take up teaching as a career. Here are a couple of links to my blogs on the topic written in past years

Are new graduate entrants to teaching still predominantly young, white and female? | John Howson (wordpress.com)

‘We need more black headteachers in our schools’ | John Howson (wordpress.com)

This is an area where clearly the DfE seems to be paying less attention than in the past. Perhaps, it shows a consequence of the lack of a dedicated unit on teacher supply, training and professional development.

Such a unit might have helped the DfE create a coherent policy to solve the current staffing crisis in our schools and colleges that should have caught nobody unawares.

Are teacher vacancy rates slowing?

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Were there really more teacher vacancies this May than during May 2022? There have been some suggestions that the answer is yes. I have seen an increase of seven per cent suggested. However, I am more cautious in suggesting any overall increase in vacancies.

Yes, there have been increases in some subjects, in some regions of England, but measuring a basket of 11 secondary subjects, no region recorded across the board increases in all subjects. In the primary sector, only the North West recorded any increase in vacancies, with a decline compared with the May 2022 number of vacancies in all other regions.

The North West and West Midlands recorded the largest number of secondary subjects with an increase in vacancies. The South East and Yorkshire & The Humber regions, the largest number of subjects where there was a decline on the May 2022 number of recorded advertisements for a classroom teacher or promoted post, according to TeachVac www.teachvac.co.uk where the data was compiled from their database of recorded vacancies.

So, why might there be a discrepancy in views about vacancies? One reason may be the treatment of repeat advertisements. I have long advocated a unique job number for each vacancy that accompanies it until it is either replaced by a different vacancy or the post is filled. Schools can be tardy at removing vacancies after the closing date, even when the post has been filled. TeachVac considers each vacancy it records and uses its own AI to decide whether to ask a human to review the vacancy, record it as a new vacancy, or discard it. This may account for some of the difference with other commentators.

TeachVac as a job board looks at teaching vacancies across both state and private schools. There is more work to be undertaken to see whether the slowdown has affected private schools more than state schools? The South East, a region with a high proportion of private schools, does seem to have seen more of a decline in vacancies than other regions. The Yorkshire and The Humber region had a strong year in 2022, so the decline in vacancies across that region may be a reaction to the number of vacancies recorded last year.

There is another possible explanation for any slowing of vacancies or even a downturn. In some subjects, notably design and technology, schools may finally have accepted that there is no point in advertising vacancies in the traditional manner, and either stopped advertising or moved to using an agency – hopefully on a no find no fee basis – or resorting to social media and other methods of recruitment advertising.

Of course, the uncertainty about pay levels for September may also now be causing schools, especially in areas where pupil rolls are not rising as fast as they have been, to become more cautious in their attitude to recruitment for September. Better to have unfilled vacancies and offer existing staff a new role than look forward to possible redundancies because of a lack of cash.

Looking at the TeachVac data for the first half of June, our recorded vacancies are still below those of 2022, except in England and Music, two subjects that largely resisted the downward trend in May.

There is more research to be undertaken, but perhaps the rise in mortgage rates is affecting the number of teachers either leaving the profession or in a position to take a maternity leave break that would require their job to be covered. Time will tell.

12-week Conversion course

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Finding teachers to fill January 2024 vacancies where they arise in many secondary schools will be a real challenge. Assuming that internal adjustments cannot be made to timetables, then schools will need to recruit replacement staff: what alternatives face them when seeking a teacher?

Recruit a remaining 2023 ITT graduate – few of these will be available, except perhaps in PE or history, and even in these subjects, numbers will be less than in past years, so this might not be an option for schools in some parts of England. In most subjects, schools are already experiencing challenges filling their remaining September vacancies.

Recruit a returner – possible, but unpredictable.

Entice a teacher from another school – not feasible for vacancies after the end of October and it just shifts the problem to another school.

Redeploy a teacher – an option for some larger academy trusts with the right type of contractual arrangements with their teachers, but not for stand-alone academies and other schools.

Hire a teacher from overseas – probably best done through an agency. There is the issue of visas to consider as well as their need to understand the system of education in England.

Look to hire a primary trained teacher – there have been fewer vacancies in the primary sector this year than in recent years, so some trainees are still likely to be job hunting and returners may find jobs difficult to secure.

However, to make better use of those trained as primary school class teachers in the job market to work as a teacher, the DfE should consider reintroducing a short-term conversion course.

The course could balance enhancing subject knowledge and application with the differences between class and subject teaching, and issues such as approaches to likely challenges. Primary trained teachers have ‘A’ levels, and a focus on subjects where there are shortages would release secondary trained teachers to focus on KS4 & 5 while these teachers worked primarily in Key Stage 3.

Assuming that the most able ITT graduates have already secured teaching posts for September, this type of course would also provide an extra 12 weeks of support for these new teachers, rather than leaving them to their own devices before they secured a teaching post.

Such courses could be organised by national bodies, such as Teach First or the National Institute of Teaching, but might be better arranged locally for a discrete geographical area facing recruitment challenges by a consortium of schools and trusts working with an ITT provider and a local authority.  

Funding from the DfE for such a course could be at a third of an ITT course, plus a weekly salary for participants based upon the bottom point of the qualified Teacher Salary scale as they would be qualified teachers. The DfE could fund a trial course using unspent ITT funds resulting from the unfilled places on courses during 2022-23.

With a will, there is surely still time to set up a course for this September to evaluate the usefulness of the idea.

Evidence to Select Committee

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The House of Commons Education Select Committee today published 28 pieces of evidence submitted to their inquiry into teacher recruitment and retention. My evidence was one of the pieces published. You can access it at: https://committees.parliament.uk/work/7357/teacher-recruitment-training-and-retention/publications/

The first oral evidence session with the teacher associations will be held next week.

This is the sixth inquiry into the topic by the Select Committee that I have submitted evidence to since penning my first piece to the inquiry in the 1980s about the number of inactive teachers in what was then known as the PIT (Pool of Inactive Teachers).

The current inquiry is quite wide in scope and the world has moved on since the call for evidence was launched in March. I hope that the SEND sector is not overlooked during the inquiry.

I have updated the index chart in the evidence to reflet the present position.

GroupITTNumber left% left
Art440-107-24.43
Science1505-1749-116.25
English1214-1281-105.52
Mathematics1467-1145-78.08
Languages652-866-132.82
IT304-672-221.05
Design & Technology372-1063-285.89
Business164-569-347.26
RE249-384-154.42
PE129538830.00
Primary12000622651.88
Music228-306-134.21
Geography523-531-101.53
History95030432.00
Source: TeachVac

The position is now much worse than in March, but regular readers of this blog would know that fact already. Schools looking for January appointments will really struggle in many subjects. The situation has moved beyond challenging into a crisis. TeachVac http://www.teachvac.co.uk may be able to help.

Retaining teachers is more of a challenge; no surprise there

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What is the pattern of teacher retention, now the profession is now overwhelmingly staffed by women? Do women teachers have different career patterns to men? One obvious difference is the length of time taken out for maternity leave. But do other caring roles later in life also mean different career paths for women teachers than for men in the profession?

The DfE provides data on the percentage of the teacher workforce still in post after different lengths of service from one year of service up to twenty-five years. Thus, someone stating at 22 would by 47 after 25 years of service. Some teachers leave and re-enter, so it possible for percentages to increase year on year for the same length of service as well as reduce. The latter is the more normal case, but in the latest data, the percentage of teachers still in service after 14 years increased by o.1%, presumably because of returners. This would likely be teachers in their late 30s returning after a career break to bring up a family. The main DfE tables do not provide data on teacher retention by the gender of the teacher.

Years of servicechange on previous year %change on 5 years previously %
1-0.42.3
2-2.6-1.7
3-0.9-2.5
4-1.2-0.8
5-0.1-0.4
6-1.2-1.2
7-0.4-1.1
8-1-3.7
9-1.1-3.9
10-1.1-3.4
11-0.1-1.9
12-3.2-2.8
13-0.8-0.8
140.1-0.7
15-0.3-2.8
16-0.5-3.6
17-0.8-3.9
18-0.6-3.9
19-2-3.2
20-1.7-0.4
21-0.6-1
22-0.4na
23-0.3na
24-0.3na
25-1na
Source: DfE School Workforce Census 2022

The above table shows the change this year from last year, and from five years ago for each year of service as published this year by the DfE. The percentage of teachers remaining after one year of services was 0.4% lower than for the one-year service percentage recorded for pervious cohort. For those with 16 years of service, the five-year percentage was 3.6% below the figure for the previous cohort.

The rate of loss, both after one year, and over five years for teachers with between eight to ten years of service, and with 17 and 18 years of service, must be a matter for concern, and perhaps investigation as to the characteristics of leavers and what are the causes of their departure?

Are these teachers quitting teaching or just moving out of the state sector? The DfE has indicated that it wants increase the recruitment of teachers from overseas. The Home Office might be concerned about such a practice and its implications for migration statistics, and could rightly argue that improving retention might be a more cost-effective way of staffing our schools? After all the National Audit Office said the same thing some years ago.

The House of Commons Education Select Committee will shortly start publishing the evidence it has received for its inquiry into teacher recruitment and retention that was announced way back in March. Hopefully, the issue of retention will receive as much attention as recruitment does.

Worst Secondary PTRs for a decade

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Yesterday the DfE published the results of the School Workforce Survey, undertaken in November 2022. School workforce in England, Reporting year 2022 – Explore education statistics – GOV.UK (explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk)

The good news is that there are more teachers; the bad news is that in both the primary and secondary sectors the Pupil Teacher Ratio has worsened. Falling pupil numbers had meant that the PTR in the primary sector had been improving over the past few years from a low of 20.9 in 2018/19 to 20.9 in the 2021 census. However, in 2022 it worsened, to 20.7. Not a big change, but a change in direction nevertheless.

In the secondary sector, the PTR has been worsening for some years now. The PTR peaked at 14.8 pupils per teacher in 2013/14 and has now worsened to 16.8 at the 2022 census; a whole two pupils per teacher worse in a decade, with all the implications for teacher workload that implies. No doubt the worsening PTR and its association with class sizes will be one reason why teaching is less popular as a career.

However, for those that do enter teaching, although fewer are remaining, with the number remaining after one year of service having fallen from its high of 8.3% in 2019, just before the pandemic to 87.2% in 2021, this is still above the 84.9% of 2016. Of even more concern must be the loss of teachers with 4-7 years of service that should be starting to fill key middle leadership positions. That just 64% remain from the 2015 cohort is disturbing. Equally disturbing is the loss of teachers from earlier cohorts. This is an area where research is needed to understand the causes. Is the global nature of teaching attracting mid-career teachers to move overseas.

The other straw in the wind from the census that cannot be ignored is the sharp increase in vacancies recorded from 1,564 in 2021 to 2,334 in 2022. On the DfE’s own measure, this means that the vacancy rate for classroom teachers has increased from 0.2% in 2020/21 – no doubt influenced by the covid pandemic to 0.5% in November 2022.  By comparison in the teacher shortages at the turn of the century, the vacancy rate in January 2001 (data was collected in January and not November at that time) reached 1.2%, so even allowing for the change in reporting date, the position may not be as bad yet as it was then. But there is little evidence to suggest that it will be better in November 2023, and much to suggest it might well be higher than 0.5%.

The rate of temporary filled posts has also increased sharply from 0.5% to 0.8%, although it remains below the 0.9% recorded as recently as 2016/17.

So, although overall teacher numbers have increased from 465.527 in 2022 to 468,371 in 2022: a new record high in terms of teacher FTEs in recent times, the increase has not been enough to offset increased pupil numbers in the secondary sector and other changes in demand.

TeachVac’s index shows depth of teacher recruitment crisis

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How bad is the recruitment crisis in teaching? That is the question everyone is asking. This blog has suggested that the situation is dire. But what data do we have to support such a position? An index created by TeachVac eight years ago looks at the number of trainees in the DfE census each year that might be looking for a teaching post. Some trainees, such as Teach First and other salaried trainees can be assumed to be already in the classroom, and so not job hunting for the September after the census date. In addition, some trainees in the census either won’t finish the course or will opt to stay in higher education or indeed find a teaching post overseas or even a job outside of teaching.

The number that is left has been called the ‘free pool’ available for teaching posts across state and private schools and sixth form colleges. How quickly that pool is reduced by the number of vacancies demonstrates the balance between supply and demand in the teacher labour market.

When recruitment into ITT is good, the depletion of the ‘pool’ is slower than when recruitment misses the targets, assuming no change in demand. Add increasing pupil numbers and funding that allows for a constant class size in the face of increasing pupil numbers, and demand for teachers will increase. Decreasing pupil numbers, as in the primary sector at present, will reduce the demand for teachers when funding is so closely driven by pupil numbers.

What does the change in the index look like between the first week in June in 2021 and 2023 that is the first measurement point aft the 31st May resignation date.

Subject202120222023
History755433
PE724731
Art6334-22
Maths42-13-74
English53-20-102
All Sciences48-40-113
Music36-48-128
RE41-60-151
Languages52-58-129
Computing20-79-216
Geography57-91-96
Business Studies-38-215-337
D&T-17-409-278
Source: TeachVac

Apart from geography, where recruitment into ITT has improved somewhat, and design and technology where schools seem finally to have accepted that advertising vacancies is a waste of money, in all other subjects there has been a significant worsening of the index. In June 2021, all subjects bar business studies and design and technology were still in positive territory. This week, only PE and history are still positive, and both at less than half their levels of 2021. With reduced targets for 2023 in these two subjects, this time next year they may well also be in negative territory on the index.

The index matters, because it provides a useful indicator for schools that are still recruiting for September or will need to recruit for January 2024. Returning teachers and teachers switching schools will be the main source of supply for these vacancies, along with any teachers that can be attracted from overseas. The need for overseas teachers may explain the enthusiasm for this route within the DfE. Whether the Minister responsible for migration is as keen is another matter that need not concern us here.