Traditionally, the Labour Party conference used to end in song. Historically, it was the Red Fag that was belted out by delegates, many of whom had learn to sing both in school and in church, chapel or other place of worship. Go to a funeral or a wedding these days, and singing is often either desultory or non-existent, except for a few brave souls. Partly, this is down to the decline in attendance at organised worship, but partly, especially for weddings, it may be down to the decline in music teaching in schools.
Yesterday, I was told of an initiative to revive school choirs https://www.cloreduffield.org.uk/clore-school-choirs-and-singing-programme
However, it will take more than a few philanthropic gestures to revive music in our schools. The subject has now reached a crisis point in state schools across England. I don’t expect the number of new trainees to meet the DfE’s target this autumn. Sadly, It is not as if missing the ITT target in music is something new.
| ITT census | % of target recruited |
| 2019/20 | 80 |
| 2020/21 | 122 |
| 2021/22 | 71 |
| 2022/23 | 62 |
| 2023/24 | 27 |
| 2024/25 | 40 |
| 2025/25 | 65 |
My expectation for the 2025/26 outcome is somewhere between 80-85% based upon September acceptance numbers through the DfE recruitment to ITT portal data published yesterday – see my previous two posts for more details.
The improvement to around 80% is because the target for this September has been reduced by the DfE from a high of 820 trainees needed in 2024/25, to a new low of 260 two years later for the 2026/27 intake.
| ITT target | 2021/22 | 2022/23 | 2023/24 | 2024/25 | 2025/26 | 2026/27 |
| Music | 540 | 470 | 790 | 820 | 565 | 260 |
In part, the reduction in the target is the result of not adding unfilled places in one year to the target for the next year. That was a policy I have always said, since it was tried in the 1990s, was a mistake. Schools cannot absorb more than a certain number of teachers each year, and they always start the autumn term fully staffed for the timetable that they have produced.
Change the timetable, and cut an examination subject, and a school is unlikely to offer it the following year in its options package, especially if it might not recruit a teacher needed to teach the subject, and someone else might need to make way for the restoration of the subject to the timetable. Once gone, it is hard to recover without a change in policy.
Of course, falling rolls will mean a reduction in demand for teachers, assuming school funding doesn’t improve – quite likely, and that retention remains at current levels – also likely with a faltering graduate job market. But is the cut to 260 places for music, a cut that would certainly justify the removal of the bursary sensible? The DfE seem to think so, after having run the Teacher Supply Model, based upon current input data. I am less sure.
So far in 2026, there have been over 500 vacancies for teachers of music and heads of department, so by year-end in December that total might have increased to somewhere between 550-600 vacancies across the year in state schools.
How does that compare to possible supply? In 2025/26 the ITT census recorded 367 music trainees. Allowing for wastage, both in-course and post-course that might reduce the available number to less than 300 or about 50% of vacancies, leaving the other 300 to be filled from returners or other sources.
| Music | ITT census | |
| 2013/14 | 380 | |
| 2014/15 | 375 | |
| 2015/16 | 355 | |
| 2016/17 | 355 | |
| 2017/18 | 295 | |
| 2018/19 | 300 | |
| 2019/20 | 320 | |
| 2020/21 | 483 | |
| 2021/22 | 390 | |
| 2022/23 | 301 | |
| 2023/24 | 214 | |
| 2024/25 | 345 | |
| 2025/26 | 367 | |
| estimate | 2026/27 | 240 |
With the reduced target of 260, the likely outcome, based on the September offer number is for around 230 trainees at the end of the year, with less than 200 available to work in the state sector in 2027, based on past trends.
Vacancies would need to fall by around 200 in 2027 for that number of new teachers to take up half the vacancies. If vacancies were to remain at 600, admittedly an upper estimate, then new entrants to the labour market might only be able to fill a third of vacancies. This would be grim news, and leaves me with two conclusions
The Teacher Supply Model has cut targets too far too soon
The removal of the bursary has affected recruitment, but the effect has been masked by the cut to the ITT target.
In the real world, unless I am wrong, fewer children will study music from September 2027/28 onwards – that’s the next school-year.
Is that what the government wants? I don’t know, but I do know that there is a risk of music disappearing as an examination subject unless more music teachers are recruited.
I was told, an unverified number, of just 190 entries in the North East Region for music at A level this summer. How many of those were from private schools? I will see what I can find out from the published statistics.
Music is changing, but that change won’t happen nor will music continue to support growth in the economy through orchestras, popular music and other trends if we let music die in the majority of state schools.
A world where music is created by Artificial Intelligence and not by humans, will be a less enjoyable place in which to live.
