I am not old enough to remember the events of September 1939, when the USSR under Stalin joined with Hitler to invade Poland. But I am old enough to recall the USSR helping to quash the 1956 Hungarian uprising.
I also remember a day like today when the wall went up around the Russian Zone of Berlin, leading US President Kennedy to make his famous statement of solidarity, ‘Ich bin in Berliner’, in June 1963.
I also recall what was called the Cuban Missile crisis, when the world stood on the brink of a superpower war, with the threat of nuclear weapons being used.
In the spring of 1968, I was in Prague at the start of what became known as the Prague Spring. I have friends who were in Czechoslovakia, as it then was, when USSR troops rolled in during August of 1968 to restore the ‘status quo ante’.
In the mid-1980s, I visited Poland during the Solidarity movement’s opposition to the government of General Jaruzelski, after the military had imposed martial law.
So, nothing that has happened in the Ukraine is a great surprise to me. Disappointing: yes. Unexpected: no.
What happens now: I don’t know. These sorts of events have a momentum all of their own. The USSR’s incursion into Afghanistan ended badly for the USSR. How would the Russian people respond to lots of body bags bringing their boys home, if that happens? They tolerated the losses in Chechenia, but Ukraine is a country of a different order of magnitude.
And how do we respond. We don’t have a playbook for supporting threatened democratic States. We do have some politicians that lack apparent strategic thinking outside of the task of winning elections.
Here, will the move away from ICE vehicles ramp up as fuel prices increase, and will there be a new drive to reduce the use of natural gas across the economy, because so much of the supply and price are driven by Russia?
Will we protect ourselves from cyber attacks in the coming days? What further sanctions will the government and private companies be prepared to introduce?
Regular readers will know that I have been writing for some time now about the need for schools to make use of renewable energy sources for their power supply. Might there be a new drive to reduce gas use across the public sector?
How will the private school market respond? Are we as a nation happy to continue to educate the children of the Russian elite? It will be interesting to see whether or not we have the option.
We don’t just need sanctions, but also positive actions to reduce our reliance on Russian economic might.
We learn in Northern Ireland, and before that across the globe that modern warfare even before drones arrived could both take a lasting toll and go on and on for years. Just how far will the Ukrainian people go to defend a right not to be run from Moscow?
Time will tell.