Happy Birthday

Today is the ninth birthday of this blog! A birthday is a good time to look back at what was written in the past on the blog. One of the interesting posts came early in the life of the blog, in July 2013, when I called for action by the government and suggested that “ministers must take urgent action if we are not to see a re-run of the crisis in teacher recruitment that occurred in the early days of the Blair government.” The full quote is reproduced below and can be seen on the blog by searching the July 2013 posts.

“Coming, as this outcome does, after several years when recruitment to teacher training has largely not been an issue, the present situation is a wake-up call for all concerned, and ministers must take urgent action if we are not to see a re-run of the crisis in teacher recruitment that occurred in the early days of the Blair government.  There are two months left before the training courses start, so all is not yet lost. However, if my predictions prove accurate, some schools are going to struggle to recruit teachers next summer: good news for recruitment agencies, but probably not for some pupils. And, as I have said before, this is no way to create a world-class education system.”

Extract from

Has Michael Gove failed to learn the lessons of history?

Posted on July 2, 2013

There was a fairly swift response from Sanctuary Buildings that sparked something of a spat and the first Statistical Bulletin on the Teacher Supply Model for a while. Regular readers can make their own minds up about the extent to which I was “scaremongering” or a prophet ‘crying in the wilderness’. I wrote in August 2013 the following:

“So now I know I am officially a scaremonger. A DfE spokesperson, helpfully anonymous, is quoted by the Daily Mail today as saying of my delving into the current teacher training position that there was no teacher shortage, adding: ‘This is scaremongering and based on incomplete evidence.’

Well, the first thing to note is that I haven’t said that there is a teacher shortage, just that training places are not being filled: not the same thing. Indeed, I have said a teacher shortage is less likely than in the past in the near future because Mr Gove has mandated that qualified teachers from Canada, Australia, New Zealand and the whole of the USA can teach here as qualified teachers with no need to retrain. With an oversupply of teachers in parts of both Canada and Australia that should prevent any short-term problem developing even though another part of the government isn’t very keen on importing workers from abroad, presumably including from within the Commonwealth and a onetime colony.”

Extract from

Scaremongering!

Posted on August 14, 2013

I suspect anyone interested in the supply of teachers of physics, design and technology and business studies may have a different view about these quotes from those interested in the supply of PE and history teachers.

The DfE now controls the whole teacher supply pipeline from applications to train as a teacher to offering a job board as somewhere for schools in the state sector to place vacancies. To talk or write of a local education service these days would be as much of a misnomer as the write of a local health service rather than of the NHS.

Understanding and controlling teacher supply is important in the national interest and it is worth speculating what the landscape of teacher supply might look like in another nine years if the DfE became seriously involved in the ‘levelling up’ agenda?

Directing new teachers where to work and directing the management of promotions by specifying how MATs ought to deploy their staff might just be two of the ‘innovations’ to look forward to in the next decade if market forces are abandoned in favour of a more interventionist approach.

I am not sure that this blog will be there to chronicle those changes, but I hope to make it to its tenth birthday next year, if that isn’t tempting fate too much.

TeachVac welcomes new tes owners

This is an interesting way to start 2022. Just three years since the tes last changed hands, its ownership looks to be on the move again. This would make the third set of owners of the tes since TeachVac was set up in 2013 to challenge the high cost of teacher recruitment in a changing world, where technology should have been driving down costs and thus reducing prices to schools. www.teachvac.co.uk According to the press release 86c854e3-7a1d-4402-9f20-32868488d2c6 (gcs-web.com) dated the 7th December the new owners should be the current management team at the tes and ONEX, a Canadian Venture Capital Group. My best wishes to them.

When the Providence Group bought the tes in 2018, I expressed surprise at the purchase, so I am not now surprised that after slimming down the business by: exiting the supply teacher market; ending coverage of the further education sector; shifting its office functions out of London and axing the print edition among other changes, Providence finally put the business up for sale.

Based on the cost structure of TeachVac, there is a profitable company lurking inside the tes, but not while it is saddled with a large slug of overhanging debt that needs to be serviced. The terms of the expected change of ownership are not revealed in the press release, but too much debt will cripple the success of the new venture. Still, it is good to see the management team taking a share of the risk, and bringing at least a part of the ownership back into the UK from North America.

Today’s Sunday Telegraph business section has an article by Matt Oliver discussing the problems the tes faces when government tries to do the same job through its own free web site for vacancies. This blog discussed such an issue in relation to both TeachVac and the TES in April 2019 DfE backs free vacancy sites | John Howson (wordpress.com) I am sorry that Matt Oliver didn’t either mention TeachVac or try to speak with me about the way the market operates, as other journalists have done on a regular basis.

Perhaps either the Education Select Committee or the Public Accounts Committee at Westminster will use Matt Oliver’s article as a reason to mount an inquiry into the teacher recruitment market. After all, the later, using National Audit Office data, called for the DfE to reduce the cost of teacher recruitment: the very reason that TeachVac was established and has flourished. Does Nationalisation always work? | John Howson (wordpress.com)

This blog has always asserted that schools have been paying too much for recruitment advertising and has been prepared to back that judgement with the development of the successful TeachVac job board. The apparent lack of interest on the part of professional associations and others connected with education to address the means of removing unnecessary expenditure from schools by slashing recruitment advertising costs has been an enduring disappointment to me. Perhaps 2022 with be the year that all this changes?

Take Care Seriously

Anne Longfield, the former Children’s Commissioner has published an important report on children in the care of local authorities entitled ‘Out of Harm’s Way. https://thecommissiononyounglives.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/OUT-OF-HARMS-WAY-CYL-DEC-29-2021-.pdf?utm_source=HOC+Library+-+Current+awareness+bulletins&utm_campaign=834a4dd143-Current_Awareness_Social_Policy_E_29-12-2021&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f325cdbfdc-834a4dd143-103730653&mc_cid=834a4dd143&mc_eid=ae5482b5b9 the report by the Commission on Young Lives should be essential reading for all Councillors, Teachers, Social Workers and Emergency Service personnel, and members of police forces across the country.

The report starts with the case of Jacob, a teenager failed by authorities and who eventually took his own life. I wrong a blog about his case when the Serious Case Review was published back in January Time for Jacob’s Law | John Howson (wordpress.com) But Jacob sadly isn’t the only child let down by a system that is overloaded and under-funded. Not only are children in the care of local authorities suffering but, as seen recently in the outcome of court cases, young children below school age are dying at the hands of those supposed to love and care for them.

But for Jacob and for many children in care one of the key issues is the support they receive from the education system. The pioneering work by the TES more than a decade ago that helped with the creation of virtual schools to oversee the education of children in care on behalf of the ‘corporate parents/guardians’ must not be undermined by an education system that is still too geared to satisfying the needs of able middle-class parents who can make full use of a market-based schooling system.

In my post in January, I called for a Jacob’s law to ensure no child was left without a school place following a move either in care or for any other reason during the school year. Since then, I have heard of too many examples of children, often with complex educational needs, where a family move has meant the child has been denied a school place for far too long. We can debate home schooling when at the behest of the parents, but ‘no schooling’ because of the failure of some part of the state, whether a local authority, a diocese or an Academy Trust, is just not acceptable.

I hope that many Councillors and activists will read this report from The Commission on Young Lives and take action ahead of local authority budgets being set in February to ensure everything possible is done to improve the lot of these young people.

Some children do need to be moved away from their ‘home’ area for safety reasons, but these moves should be exceptional and not routine. No child of secondary age should be moved from a comprehensive system to a selective system where they have no access to selective schools regardless of their perceived ability levels.

We must care for the most vulnerable of our young people in a fit and proper manner and not as an afterthought.

Boom in Teaching Vacancies this December

Are schools starting the recruitment process for teachers required for September 2022 early this school year? Data from TeachVac www.teachvac.co.uk would certainly seem to suggest that something is happening that is different to usual.

A look at recorded vacancies for December 2021, up to yesterday, the 17th, compared with the same period in 2019 – the last year before the covid outbreak distorted the labour market for teachers – does suggest some schools might be bringing forward their recruitment process, possibly in case of any lockdown in the New Year? Talk in social media about the leading paid for recruitment platform putting up subscription rates, if correct, might also have had some influence on behaviour.

December recorded vacancies by TeachVac
Subject20192021Percentage +/- (The nearest whole %)
SEN244692%
Primary46577366%
Business437165%
Humanities203260%
Design & Technology8413156%
RE385955%
Leadership20230350%
Music385647%
History426043%
PE628435%
Total2192287631%
Art364319%
Languages10112019%
Geography62678%
Science2913096%
IT79813%
Mathematics273271-1%
English241225-7%
Total2192287631%
Source: TeachVac

Interestingly, the two big departments in secondary schools of English and Mathematics have not followed the general pattern of increases of, on average, about a third. Both of these subjects have recorded falls when compared with December 2019. Might it be that with a greater proportion of trainees on school-based courses, schools feel that they can recruit for the trainee pool without the need to advertise in the open market? Such an approach may say money, but not on a fixed cost subscription package.

The increase in primary vacancies, against a scenario where the sector is facing falling pupil numbers at the entry age group in many parts of the country merits further investigation. However, it is no surprise to see both business studies and design and technology so close to the top of the table. The recent DfE ITT Census contained grim news for schools wanting to recruit teachers in these subjects for September 2022. Wise schools will start recruiting as soon as possible. No doubt any surplus teachers in these subjects can be hired out to other schools within a MAT for a fee.

The growth in posts on the Leadership Scales is interesting. Does it herald the start of a boom in such vacancies, as the pressures of the last two years finally take their toll on headteachers who have told their governing bodies that they will be leaving in the summer?

I will be starting compiling the TeachVac Annual Reviews for the whole labour market and for Leadership posts during 2021 next week, with a view to publication early in 2022.

TeachVac continues to break records in recruiting new applicants; in matches made and in hits on the web site. TeachVac should record some 64,000 vacancies for teachers in 2021; far more than the DfE site. www.teachvac.co.uk

Schools are now signing up to the TeachVac 2022 package that costs £100 to register and £1 per match against a school’s vacancies with a ceiling of £1,000 plus VAT including the registration package, after which all further matches in 2022 are free. Full details of how to registration interest can be found at TeachVac Reports – The National Vacancy Service for Teachers and Schools and registration comes with a free report.

Distribution of physics trainees

The DfE’s ITT Census for 2021/22 was published yesterday – see previous post for the headline data. Over time, it will be possible to mine a great deal of information form the open-source information now provided by the DfE.

Those schools signed up to the new TeachVac service Are you overpaying to advertise your teaching posts? | John Howson (wordpress.com) for a registration fee of £100 plus VAT and  maximum annual charge of £1,000 plus VAT will be able to ask TeachVac staff to match this data with regional data for their area to help predict possible local labour shortages during 2022. So, if you are a school governor, headteacher or work for a MAT or diocese do read what is on offer and go to Teaching Jobs School Vacancies – The National Vacancy Service for Teachers and Schools (teachvac.co.uk) and hit the red tab at the top labelled New Matching Service

Taking physics as an example, the DfE data shows that the 537 trainees in the census are spread unevenly across the country.

Government RegionHEISCITTGrand Total
East Midlands292150
East of England161531
London5777134
North East12618
North West581674
South East6645111
South West371047
West Midlands341347
Yorkshire and The Humber332255
Grand Total342225567
Source TeachVac from DfE ITT census 2021   
Distribution of physics trainees

Approximately 43% of trainees are located in London or the South East, with just eight per cent located with providers in the West Midlands. This can be important because London and the South East contain a significant proportion of the country’s independent secondary schools. Such schools are more likely to advertise for a teacher of physics than do most state schools.

Many of the remaining selective schools are also in London and the South East, and they are the state schools most likely to advertise for a teacher of physics rather than a teacher of science. If just a quarter of the trainees in London and the South East opt to teach outside the state sector, this reduced the pool national to little over 500 trainees many of whom will be on school-based courses and not looking for a job on the open market.

A slightly different picture emerges for design and technology

Row LabelsHEISCITTGrand Total
East Midlands231033
East of England131629
London204363
North East4711
North West16521
South East212142
South West211132
West Midlands52961
Yorkshire and The Humber252449
Grand Total195146341
Distribution of design and technology trainees

Source TeachVac from DfE ITT census 2021

Here the North West looks like an area where recruitment will be a real challenge whereas the West midlands seems relatively, and it is only relatively, better off for teachers of this subject. However, we know nothing about specialisms with the subject.

This type of information is key to sensible recruitment planning and should play an important part in discussions about the working of the leveling up agenda in education at the level of the school.

ITT Census

The DfE’s ITT census published this morning highlight just how much the pandemic has affected recruitment. History recruited to 199% of the DfE target while physics managed just 22% of target – a new record low for the subject. https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/initial-teacher-training-trainee-number-census-2021-to-2022 The key message from the census is that easy to recruit subjects had a good year, but subjects where recruitment is challenging often continued to have issues with physics at 22% of target a matter of serious concern and design and technology at 23% of target also facing a crisis.

2013/14

2019/2020

2020/21

2021/22

Percentage of Target at census date

%

%

%

%

Mathematics

86

65

84

95

English

136

110

127

118

Modern Languages

85

64

74

71

Biology

163

189

117

Physics

42

45

22

Chemistry

67

80

105

Physical Education

138

105

135

164

Other

57

82

25

Design & Technology

45

42

75

23

History

150

115

175

199

Geography

100

118

130

86

Computing

63

75

105

69

Art & Design

136

62

132

140

Religious Education

82

94

128

99

Music

97

80

125

72

Drama

157

Business Studies

88

53

102

45

All Secondary

98

83

106

82

Inc TF

Inc TF

Inc TF

Primary

99

94

130

136

Inc TF

Inc TF

Inc TF

Looking back at a comparison of this year with 2019/2020 before the pandemic most subjects have still recruited better to target apart from those mentioned above and computing and music. There is also good news for the government in that trainee numbers in London are up on two years ago; the only region where that is the case. However, it isn’t clear how the increase breaks down between primary and secondary trainees in terms of the increase. Some 8% of secondary trainees and 5% of primary are classified as non-UK National trainees by background. Clearly, without these trainees the position in the secondary sector would have been even worse. The government will also be gratified by the overall qualification level of trainees as measured by degree class. However, once a gain there is a need to delve below the total to see if there are difference s between subjects and parts of the country. As predicted the percentage of trainees on the School Direct Salaried route fell from 6% to 3%. However, there was an increase in trainees on the apprenticeship route from one per cent of the total to three per cent. The shift from higher education to school based courses continued with higher education now accounting for just 45% of trainees. The High Potential Trainee route (ex Teach First) remained at 15%. The new name seems a little provocative for a short-service route. Looking across the board at the implications for the 2022 recruitment round it seems likely that the primary sector will be able to fill vacancies relatively easily. However, it is a different matter in the secondary sector. Schools will be awash with applications for history and PE posts but should now be thinking of how to deal with vacancies in the design and technology and for physis as well as business studies and some of the subjects classified as ‘other’ by the DfE.

Are you overpaying to advertise your teaching posts?

New service for schools from TeachVac

Does your school pay an annual subscription to post your teaching vacancies, but then have to pay extra for leadership posts?

Does your supplier tell you how many matches there were for each vacancy you advertised?

Do you know the size of the market in your area, as well as the likely annual demand for teachers?

TeachVac can answer your questions

After seven years of successful matching and designing a system specifically for schools in England, TeachVac is now asking schools to pre-register for free for its new enhanced service and in return receive a report on the labour market for teachers. Pre-registration now costs nothing, but allows for faster delivery of matches to pre-registered schools. When live in the New year, here’s how the new system will work.

Register your school now for just £100 plus VAT and receive 200 free matches. That means the first 200 matches made with your vacancies will be free on all leadership, promoted posts and classroom teacher vacancies advertised in 2022.

Matches are then £1 each up to a maximum of £1,000 per school each year. All further matches are free for the rest of that year.

You fee will make our teacher pool even larger than at present. We aim for the largest pool of teachers that are job hunting to match with your vacancies at the lowest price to schools. TeachVac can do this with its own sophisticated technology written with schools in mind.

TeachVac can save you money

No matches: no cost. No subscription to pay after the registration fee of £100 plus VAT and that is covered by your first 200 matches.

Additionally, we tell you information about the likely pool of teachers and how fast it is being depleted as the recruitment round unfolds between January and September.

TeachVac has been matching teachers to jobs for seven years and its low-cost British designed technology has made more than 1.5 million matches in 2021 for schools across the country.

Sign up today at: https://teachvac.co.uk/school_doc.php

And receive our latest report on the Labour Market for teachers. Schools that don’t register will no longer be matched with our increasing pool of candidates. TeachVac listed 60,000+ vacancies in 2021 and made more than 1.5 million matches. https://teachvac.co.uk/school_doc.php

Private sector not always better

The latest Ofsted Inspection Reports on ITT are certainly throwing up some interesting questions. The most recent three reports, all on London or Home counties-based providers, have resulted in two ‘Requires Improvement’ judgements and one ‘Inadequate’. In addition, two providers have been found to be non-compliant in certain aspects of their training provision.

One provider is a university; another a long-established SCITT with an interesting approach and the third is the tes Institute (part of the tes Group , better know for its news platform and recruitment advertising). 50170428 (ofsted.gov.uk)

In view of the likely shake-out in provision of primary ITT following the fall in the birth rate and the subsequent reduction in the school population any poor outcome from an Ofsted inspection must raise issues about the future of such courses unless there is a rapid improvement in outcomes. Despite rating the tes programme as ‘Requires Improvement’ overall, the judgement on the ‘quality of education and training’ was deemed as ‘Good’. It was the leadership and management that was in need of improvement.

It is possible to understand a small SCITT having to improve leadership and management, but a large provider in the private sector with more than 300 trainees and a significant contribution to the Assessment only route to QTS needing to improve management and leadership might raise eyebrows.

In view of the current American ownership of the tes Group as a whole, it is interesting to wonder how such a state of affairs has come about? Will this porgramme now follow the teacher supply business into the exit as a non-core strategy for the Group? Do the soundings made to me by investors asking about the recruitment market presage yet another passing of the parcel?

On the wider picture, ‘Outstanding’ judgements for ITT are now thin on the ground. FE and primary sectors seem to be the areas of most concern to Ofsted, with secondary provision seemingly faring somewhat better so far; but it is still early days.

The government is sticking to its ambitious targets for trainee numbers, but is no longer keeping the world informed about actual need in specific subjects and by the different programmes. The next hard evidence will likely be the annual ITT Census of trainees, scheduled for publication before Christmas. This is likely to confirm the ending of the covid boom of last year that was seen in many subjects, and a continued under-shoot against probable target in some key subjects.

As this blog has pointed out, the shortage of lorry drivers is as nothing to the shortage of Physics teachers.  You cannot fully staff all schools if there are not enough teachers to go around. History tells us which schools are most likely to have under-qualified staff or not to offer specific subjects to all pupils.

I doubt that the changes in the Budget will help much to improve teacher supply, but the ending of the pay standstill shouldn’t make matters worse, especially if the secondary sector receives the bulk of the additional cash on offer outside the Early Years Sector. Life may be challenging for the primary sector for the remainder of this decade.

From porter to software engineer

I was interested in the Prime Minister’s conference speech today, so looked out this post from 7 years ago when the blog was still in its infancy. Absence rates were an issue even then as was teacher supply. I don’t think the maths and science teacher premium, an old policy re-invented will be the answer, not least because we need to solve the problem by creating a successful early years framework. Perhaps the cash might have been better invested in children’s Centres?

Anyway here is my previous post, like some government polices given a reprieve and a new title.

Posted on June 18, 2014

The Report on achievement by white working class boys published today by the Education Select Committee makes clear what educationalists have known for some time: this group underperform in school compared with almost all other groups except perhaps traveller children, and have been falling behind as other groups have improved at a faster rate. Why this is, and the solutions proposed by the Committee, reveals the complexity of the problem.

No doubt the one solution highlighted by many commentators will be the lengthening of the school day to provide both wraparound care and somewhere for older pupils to do their homework and participate in after-school activities. The homework facility is a good idea where pupils lack space and facilities at home. But, it will only work if pupils are motivated to learn, and there is a risk that this is too often not the case.

Absence rates for schools serving white working class communities are often above the national average, and it is well known that pupils falling behind early on in their education struggle to catch up. As a result, it might be worth exploring how we ensure the best quality teachers are working in the early years of schools serving these communities, and also how we create learning opportunities that cope with a less than perfect attendance pattern. This would be the opposite of the big stick, fine for non-attendance route that anyway doesn’t take into account the ability of a family to pay any fine.

With a looming teacher shortage in some parts of the country, addressing the problem of who teaches where is vital if the gap between white working class pupils and the rest of society isn’t to widen still further. Such school cannot be allowed to struggle to find teachers.

However, there is much to be done to motivate the parents, many of whom underachieved at school, and don’t see the reason for forcing a regular pattern of attendance on their offspring. But, society must engage with them, and offer help so their children can benefit from our future economic success as a nation.

With the structural changes to the labour market that have taken place over the past few decades many of the jobs that didn’t need much education have disappeared, and those that remain are often not well paid. Some years ago I noted an educationalist that had said that ‘the porter of yesterday had become the fork lift truck driver of today and the operator of a computer managed warehouse of tomorrow’. Well tomorrow has arrived. White working class boys with no qualifications sometimes have a choice between perhaps either window cleaning or driving white vans; and even window cleaning is becoming more skilled, and there are no jobs for van boys any longer.

Whatever society does to attack this problem of underachievement is likely to cost money, and reassessing how schools are funded, especially those offering the early years of schooling, remains an important consideration.

Now that schools are no longer the total responsibility of local authorities, the government must come forward with a programme to help address the underachievement: keeping schools open longer is only a small part of the solution; fining parents is no real solution, but ensuring the right teachers work in the schools where they will make the most difference is something worth trying. Achieving it will either cost money or mean a total rethink of how teachers are employed, and a challenge to school autonomy.

Thank You UCAS

Today marks the final set of monthly data from UCAS in relation to postgraduate teacher preparation courses. From Next month the DfE takes over the application process for all such postgraduate routes into teaching. The remaining undergraduate courses will still be part of the UCAS process.

Thirty years ago, in the days of PCAS, UCAS and the Clearing House for Teacher Training, I started monitoring the monthly data produced to study the implications for teacher supply of recruitment levels for courses starting each September. So, this may well be my final report on the subject. With readership of this blog falling away in recent months, that probably won’t be an issue. For many

At some point, I may write a blog about the highlights of thirty years of looking at the data, but enough of looking backward: what are the implications of today’s data? Primary courses should have more than sufficient trainees to meet demand in 2020. Applications were at their highest levels this September since the 2016/17 cycle.

Across the secondary sector, the picture is more mixed. Overall applications remained high, although some 10,000 below last year’s surge that was a result of the response to the covid pandemic and the shutting down of the economy. This year, subjects can be divided into three groups.

Firstly, those where applications are sufficient to ensure there should be no shortages of teachers in 2022. These subjects include, Art, PE, history and chemistry. Music may also be in this group, but might be on the cusp of the second group where applications are high by past standards, but may not be enough to meet demand in 2022 and will need watching when the ITT Census appears for the numbers that have actually made it onto courses. This group of subjects includes, RE, mathematics and business studies.

The final group is those subjects where the number of recorded acceptances will not be enough to meet likely demand next year. This group includes some regulars such as physics, IT and design and technology as well as biology, English, a subject that might also be in the second group depending upon demand in 2022, geography and modern foreign languages.

Many of these subjects are those thought important by the former Minister of State, although during his tenure at Sanctuary Buildings the supply crisis in these subjects was never solved.

Design and technology deserves especial mention as it is facing its worst crisis ever in terms of numbers offered places. The 320 recorded as placed or conditionally placed is half the number of September last year and the lowest level recorded since before 2010. No doubt the possible surplus of teachers of art and design will help stave off complete catastrophe in the staffing of the subject.

There is some evidence that bursaries do matter. Both biology and geography have seen numbers accepted drop sharply following changes in financial support. Chemistry has been a beneficiary in the sciences, suggesting that some possible biologist have switched subjects to chemistry and the more attractive finance package during training.

So, farewell and thank you to everyone at UCAS. We may not have seen eye to eye all the time, but I appreciate you work and the data you have produced.