Becoming a primary school teacher: worth the risk?

Posted on August 2, 2023 by John Howson

Classroom Teachers and promoted posts

Primary Sector

The primary sector during 2023 has been noticeable for a decline in advertised vacancies across England in both the private and state school sectors.

January to July each year
Primary Classroom & promoted posts
2022
Count of URN	Column Labels
Row Labels	Independent	State	Grand Total
East Midlands	53	2183	2236
East of England	214	3052	3266
London	529	3019	3548
North East	7	257	264
North West	63	2198	2261
South East	392	4663	5055
South West	106	2724	2830
West Midlands	53	2078	2131
Yorkshire & the Humber	62	2075	2137
Grand Total	1479	22249	23728
Primary Classroom & promoted posts
2023
Row Labels	Independent	State	Grand Total
East Midlands	25	1642	1667
East of England	116	2254	2370
London	316	2336	2652
North East	7	608	615
North West	39	1607	1646
South East	240	3240	3480
South West	92	2089	2181
West Midlands	50	1674	1724
Yorkshire & the Humber	34	1316	1350
Grand Total	919	16766	17685
Difference between 2022 and 2023
Row Labels
East Midlands	-28	-541	-569
East of England	-98	-798	-896
London	-213	-683	-896
North East	0	351	351
North West	-24	-591	-615
South East	-152	-1423	-1575
South West	-14	-635	-649
West Midlands	-3	-404	-407
Yorkshire & the Humber	-28	-759	-787
Grand Total	-560	-5483	-6043

Percentage difference
East Midlands	-53%	-25%	-25%
East of England	-46%	-26%	-27%
London	-40%	-23%	-25%
North East	0%	137%	133%
North West	-38%	-27%	-27%
South East	-39%	-31%	-31%
South West	-13%	-23%	-23%
West Midlands	-6%	-19%	-19%
Yorkshire & the Humber	-45%	-37%	-37%
Grand Total	-38%	-25%	-25%

Source: TeachVac

The one region where the data shows a different pattern is the North East and reasons for that difference will be explored in more detail later.

Leaving the outcome for the North East aside, the other regions all recorded declines of between 19% (West Midlands) and 37% (Yorkshire and The Humber), with the average for the England (including the North East) being a decline of 25% for all classroom teachers and promoted posts in the primary sector across England for the January to July months in 2023 when compared with the same period in 2022.

The data for the North East looks less out of line when compared over a longer period of time

North East
	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023
January	46	29	46	13	17	34
February	38	31	50	8	11	45
March	78	59	101	34	26	102
April	88	24	37	125	44	118
May	80	29	52	183	47	206
June	36	10	53	68	22	102
July	7	5	13	0	22	8
Total	373	187	352	431	189	615

Source: TeachVac

It may be that a change in data collection affected the 2022 data. Many of the local authorities in the North East post the vacancies in their primary schools on a regional job board. However, at this point in time the actual reason for the change must be speculation.

Leadership Vacancies

The leadership Scale comprises three grades: assistant head; deputy head and headteacher (some times written as head teacher). The first two grades are less common in the primary sector than in the secondary sector. However, with the larger number of schools in the primary sector, the number of headship vacancies each year is larger than in the secondary sector.

Primary Leadership
2022
Grade	Independent	State	Grand Total
Assistant Head	27	776	803
Deputy Head	48	891	939
Head teacher	15	1469	1484
Grand Total	90	3136	3226
2023
Grade	Independent	State	Grand Total
Assistant Head	13	586	599
Deputy Head	37	723	760
Head teacher	19	1259	1278
Grand Total	69	2568	2637
Difference
Grade	Independent	State	Grand Total
Assistant Head	-14	-190	-204
Deputy Head	-11	-168	-179
Head teacher	4	-210	-206
Grand Total	-21	-568	-589

Grade	Independent	State	Grand Total
Assistant Head	-52%	-24%	-25%
Deputy Head	-23%	-19%	-19%
Head teacher	27%	-14%	-14%
Grand Total	-23%	-18%	-18%

Source: TeachVac

As will classroom teacher vacancies, a reduction in leadership vacancies was recorded for the first seven months of 2023 when compared with the same period in 2022.

TeachVac’s data coverage of the primary sector in the private school market is not complete, so the changes here must be regarded with caution. The numbers are also small in some cells, further reducing the usefulness of the data.

Coverage of the state-funded primary school sector by TeachVac has been more comprehensive. The largest fall is in the assistant headship grade. This is not unexpected in a sector that is facing falling rolls. Although the use of the assistant head grade has increased in recent years in the primary sector, it is still less common to see such vacancies than for deputy head or headteacher posts.

London and the South East remain the two regions where assistant headteacher vacancies are most commonly to be found. This year, these two regions accounted for 220 or the 586 state-sector assistant headteacher vacancies recorded between January and July 2023 compared with 257 of the 776 vacancies at this grade recorded in the first seven months of 2022.

The decline in headteacher vacancies recorded in 2023 may be partly down to a reduction in re-advertisements of headteacher vacancies in 2023. As many re-advertisements for these posts only appear in September, the exact position is not certain at this point in the year. However, the decline in headteacher advertisements in the first seven months of 2023, when compared with the same period in 2022, was less than that recorded in the other two leadership grades for posts in the primary sector.

On the basis of this data, is primary school teaching a good choice of career at the present moment in time? For those required to pay full tuition fees to train as a teacher, there must be a question mark about the accumulation of an increased debt at the end of the training course and the risk of not finding a teaching post. There are vacancies, but probably not enough to provide a guarantee of a teaching post for every trainee and returner.

Additionally, the implications of the two-year Early Career Framework may make it more likely that schools will either recruit returners over new entrants to the profession or use schemes such as the Graduate Apprenticeship Scheme to train their own teachers.

Further posts will explore the secondary sector data in more detail.

For the first part of this series see: A tale of two markets | John Howson (wordpress.com)

A tale of two markets

Posted on August 2, 2023 by John Howson

The Labour Market for Teachers in England – January to July 2023 (part one) overview

The months between January and July each year witness the majority of the advertisements for teachers each year. This is because the labour market is skewed towards appointments for the start of the school-year in September.

In a normal year, not affected by factors such as a pandemic, around three quarters to 80% of vacancies are advertised during the first seven months of the year, with the largest number of advertisements being placed during the three months between March and May; with the peak usually occurring some weeks after the Easter holidays.

TeachVac has been recording vacancies advertised by schools through their websites since 2014. The decade can be separated out into three phases; from 2014 to 2019; 2020 and 2021, the covid years, and 2022 and 2023. The last two years have seen a significant change in the volume of vacancies advertised. This trend will be discussed in more detail later.

The demand for teachers depends upon a number of different factors, and that demand can be satisfied in a number of different ways. The most important factor is the school population. Increasing pupil numbers require more teachers, unless teaching groups are to increase in size. Obviously, falling rolls mean less demand, and in extreme cases can even lead to teacher redundancies.

The level of funding of schools also plays a part. Increased resources for schools can result in an increased demand for teaching staff; restrictions on funding can reduce demand for replacements when staff leave. Within the funding envelope, the cost of the salary bill can have a significant bearing on staffing levels. For instance, an under-funded pay settlement can reduce demand for staff as more funds are spent on paying the existing staffing complement. For the private school sector, the demand for places and the payment of fees has the same effect. More demand for places means there is likely to be a demand for more teachers

The third key factor affecting the level of advertisements is the state of the market. A good supply of teachers means most vacancies will be filled at first advertisement or event these days without an advertisement at all. However, if there is a challenging labour market, perhaps because of a shortage of either new entrants or returners, or an increase in departures from teaching in schools in England, then these factors can result in an increase in advertisements, as vacancies not filled are re-advertised. This may be one the factors behind the increase in vacancies recorded in 2022, because in many secondary subjects the numbers entering the profession from training were less than required by the DfE’s Teacher Supply Model.

So, what of the first seven months of 2023? The tables below show the record of vacancies as measured by advertisements for schools in England

2022
	Primary			Secondary			Overall
	Indep	State	Total	Indep	State	Total	Total
Classroom	1191	17449	18640	5056	34901	39957	58597
Promoted post	198	1664	1862	1655	11921	13576	15438
Assistant Head	27	776	803	82	1368	1450	2253
Deputy head	48	891	939	123	762	885	1824
Head teacher	15	1469	1484	32	365	397	1881
Grand Total	1479	22249	23728	6948	49317	56265	79993

2023	Primary			Secondary			Overall
	Indep	State	Total	Indep	State	Total	Total
Classroom	796	15409	16205	4410	38432	42842	59047
Promoted post	123	1357	1480	1266	13634	14900	16380
Assistant Head	13	586	599	67	1346	1413	2012
Deputy head	37	723	760	95	767	862	1622
Head teacher	19	1259	1278	29	358	387	1665
Grand Total	988	19334	20322	5867	54537	60404	80726
	Primary			Secondary			Overall
	Indep	State	Total	Indep	State	Total	Total
Change 2023 on 2022	-491	-2915	-3406	-1081	5220	4139	733
% change	-33%	-13%	-14%	-16%	11%	7%	1%

Source: TeachVac

The key feature to note is that there was little change between 2022 and 2023. Overall, the number of vacancies, as measured by advertisements, increased by one per cent in 2023 when compared with 2022. This was an overall increase of 733 advertisements from 79,993 to 80726.

However, the overall total hides two very different picture for the different sectors. Advertisements for teachers and school leaders in the primary sector fell from 23,728 in the first seven months of 2022 to20,322 in the same period of 2023: a fall of 14%.

The fall in the primary sector affected vacancies at all levels except for headteachers in the independent sector, where a small increase in advertisements was recorded in 2023 when compared with 2022.

Advertised vacancies for classroom teachers declined from 18,640 in 2022 to 16,205 in 2023, with both the state and independent school sectors recording a fall in advertisements.

In the secondary sector, the position was very different. Overall, the recorded number of advertisements increased from 56,265 in 2022 to 60,404 in the first seven months of 2023. Within the secondary sector, the increase was not universal. The independent school sector recorded a fall in advertisements for most posts, whereas state sector secondary schools recorded an increase for classroom teachers and promoted posts, but little change in the number of vacancies for leadership posts.

Further posts will explore the different categories in more detail.

Assessment Only route into teaching: sideshow or useful source of teachers?

Posted on July 28, 2023 by John Howson

How well is the assessment only route to QTS doing, and what part has it played in helping reduce the shortage of teachers in some subjects? The recent data on outcomes for 2021/22 year for this route was contained as a part of the ITT profiles statistics and does produce some interesting information. Initial teacher training performance profiles, Academic year 2021/22 – Explore education statistics – GOV.UK (explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk)

Assessment only candidate numbers by subject and phase

Subject	2019/20	2020/21	2021/22
Art & Design	29	33	44
Biology	25	65	30
Business Studies	21	19	29
Chemistry	11	9	16
Classics	3	4	5
Computing	10	17	20
Design & Technology	25	33	42
Drama	11	31	35
English	128	150	145
Geography	19	12	18
History	42	35	24
Mathematics	93	89	125
Modern Foreign Languages	15	24	28
Music	22	27	32
Other	25	41	89
Physical Education	64	97	98
Physics	38	9	22
Religious Education	15	29	17
Primary	614	747	612
Secondary	596	724	819
Total	1,210	1,471	1,431

Initial teacher training performance profiles

The numbers in some shortage subjects, such as physics, (leaving aside 2020/21 as possibly affected by the covid pandemic) only represent a small fraction of the total candidates on the Assessment Only route to QTS: around two per cent in 2021/22. Computing candidate numbers were even lower in 2021/22, at just 20 candidates.

Around 40% of the candidates on this route were working to become qualified teachers while in the primary sector, so we do not know the range of subjects that they might contribute expertise to when they have obtained QTS.

In the secondary sector, only English and mathematics were subjects with candidate numbers in three figures, although physical education – hardly a shortage subject – just missed reaching 100 candidates with a total of 98.

The government web site on teaching says that

You can take the assessment only route to QTS if you already meet the standards for qualified teacher status, so do not need any further training.

Instead, you will undertake a series of assessments. This may include lesson observations, providing a portfolio of evidence to show you meet the teachers’ standards, or written assessments. This will vary by your provider.

The assessment programme takes up to 12 weeks.

To be eligible, you need (all of the following):

to be able to show you meet the teachers’ standards(opens in new window) without any more training
to have worked in 2 or more schools
a degree
GCSEs at grade 4 (C) or above in English and maths (and science if you want to teach primary)

Specific entry criteria may vary by teacher training provider.

There are nearly 100 providers of the Assessment Only route certification, although only four are open to non-UK citizens. Based upon the data in the table, some providers must receive very small numbers of registrations each year. Is there a case for rationalisation to provide a smaller number of providers in each region to allow for larger cohorts?

More jobs: lower employment outcomes

Posted on July 27, 2023 by John Howson

The data provided by the DfE in the teacher profiles is very much at the headline level and has made direct comparisons with previous year more of a challenge except where the DfE has recalculated the data for earlier years. This blog looks at employment percentages by ethnic group and region of training.

The change in methodology introduced by the DfE in calculating completion rates for postgraduate students in ITT in 2021/22 has made a difference to the percentages of each ethnic grouping employed in state-funded schools. For comments on last year’s data under the previous methodology please see Disturbing profile data on new teachers | John Howson (wordpress.com)

For the latest DfE profiles see Initial teacher training performance profiles, Academic year 2021/22 – Explore education statistics – GOV.UK (explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk)

Although the difference between the groups is smaller than under the previous methodology, there are still differences. The most notable is between the Asian Group and the White and Black groups; a difference of some 7% points.

Postgraduate trainee qualified teacher status and employment outcomes by ethnic group

Group	2017/18	2018/19	2019/20	2020/21	2021/22
Total	80%	78%	74%	73%	75%
Asian	78%	73%	67%	64%	69%
Black	82%	81%	74%	71%	76%
Mixed	82%	81%	74%	71%	76%
Other	79%	75%	65%	66%	71%
White	81%	78%	74%	74%	76%
Unknown	78%	86%	80%	76%	80%

Initial teacher training performance profiles

The ‘unknown’ grouping is the only one where under the new methodology the 2021/22 percentage is higher than the percentage in 2017/18. The increase for this grouping may be down to the larger numbers in the latest survey recorded as ‘unknown’.

Again, the lack of a breakdown between primary trainees, where trainees may have found that jobs were more difficult to come by, and secondary sector trainees, where in most subjects the jobs advertised exceeded trainee numbers, makes it difficult to say much more about the overall outcomes for the sector. However, a percentage of the increases in employment percentages between 2020/21 and 2021/22 can be put down to the larger increase in secondary teacher vacancies between the two years.

There is little difference in employment outcomes for other groups, with women having a slightly higher percentage employed in state-funded schools than men, and older trainees a slightly high percentage than younger trainees.

Postgraduate trainee outcomes by region for the 2021/22 academic year

	Total trainees	Percentage awarded QTS	Percentage of those awarded QTS teaching in a state-funded school
England	31,747	93%	75%
North East	1,261	87%	66%
North West	4,840	93%	64%
Yorkshire and The Humber	3,358	90%	72%
East Midlands	2,134	92%	78%
West Midlands	3,346	93%	73%
East of England	2,531	94%	85%
London	7,319	94%	81%
South East	4,574	94%	78%
South West	2,384	93%	77%

Initial teacher training performance profiles

London and the Home Counties were the regions where the highest percentages of those awarded QTS were likely to be employed in a state-funded school. This is despite the fact that these areas also contain the largest percentage of private schools.

Some of the rationale for reducing trainee numbers in the north of England is obvious from the employment outcomes. Assuming that trainees wish to join the state sector, the fact that only two thirds of those with QTS in both the North East and North West regions were in employment does suggest that there was a question about the distribution of places across the country. The reduction of places in the South West after the recent review, and especially in Devon, does seem harder to explain from just the employment statics alone.

ITT outcomes: reflections on employment

Posted on July 27, 2023 by John Howson

The DfE has today published the ITT profiles for 2021/2022 Initial teacher training performance profiles, Academic year 2021/22 – Explore education statistics – GOV.UK (explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk) There has bene a change in methodology this year, and only completing postgraduate trainees are now counted. In addition, the data may have been affected by completers with extension from 2020/21 and had been affected by starting their courses during the height of the covid pandemic.

Even with these caveats, there are some interesting issues for policymakers to ponder

Provisional employment rates were 81% for those on a school-led route compared to 69% for those on a Higher Education Institution (HEI) route, with the highest rates seen for those on the High Potential ITT (90%), School Direct Salaried (84%), and Postgraduate Teaching Apprenticeship (83%) routes These three routes have had the three highest employment rates since the Postgraduate Teaching Apprenticeship was introduced in 2018/19, with High Potential ITT having the highest employment rate every year since 2017/18 (joint highest in 2019/20).

Salaried routes seem to do better in terms of immediate employment in teaching. However, does employment in this context only mean employment in a state-funded schools and not a sixth form college, other further education setting or an independent school?

As elsewhere it states that ‘We provisionally estimate that within sixteen months of the end of the 2021/22 academic year, 22,276 postgraduate trainees awarded QTS in 2021/22 will be employed as a teacher in a state-funded school in England, up from 21,889 in 2020/21. This represents 75% of postgraduate trainees awarded QTS, reversing a downward trend from 80% in 2017/18 to 73% in 2020/21,’ it might be sensible to infer that the data on employment only refers to employment in state-funded schools.

It seems logical that those employed in a state-funded school during training would remain there. However, higher education providers also offer many places in subjects such as physics where competition from the private school sector for teachers might well mean that the percentage entering the state-funded school sector would be lower, even if those working in the further education sector are discounted.

The headline statistics don’t break the data down into trainees on primary and secondary sector courses. As a result, it isn’t possible from the headlines to understand why both the percentage awarded QTS dropped to 93% (methodology changes may have been part of the cause) and ‘of these postgraduate trainees with course outcomes, 29,511 were awarded qualified teacher status (QTS), down from 30,101 in 2020/21. This decrease follows year-on-year increases from 2017/18.’

Trainee qualified teacher status and employment outcomes by subject’

Subject	Total Trainees	Awarded QTS	Working in state sector school
Classics	66	97%	56%
Physical Education	1,670	97%	70%
Business Studies	309	90%	73%
Computing	575	86%	73%
Primary	15,098	94%	73%
Drama	473	95%	74%
Other	528	94%	74%
Physics	561	87%	74%
Total	31,747	93%	75%
Art & Design	809	94%	76%
Modern Foreign Languages	1,101	94%	77%
Secondary	16,649	92%	77%
Chemistry	1,088	90%	78%
History	1,531	93%	78%
Mathematics	2,647	92%	78%
Biology	1,059	88%	79%
Religious Education	476	92%	79%
Music	388	93%	81%
English	2,350	92%	82%
Geography	660	94%	82%
Design & Technology	358	94%	83%

Initial teacher training performance profiles, Academic year 2021/22

Perhaps it is not surprising that only just over half of trainees in classics were working in state-funded schools. For physical education and primary, the low percentages may relate more to a lack of opportunity than to a desire not to work in a state-funded school.

More worrying is the ranking of subjects by the percentage awarded QTS

Subject	Total Trainees	Awarded QTS	Working in state sector school
Physics	561	87%	74%
Biology	1,059	88%	79%
Business Studies	309	90%	73%
Chemistry	1,088	90%	78%
Secondary	16,649	92%	77%
Mathematics	2,647	92%	78%
Religious Education	476	92%	79%
English	2,350	92%	82%
Total	31,747	93%	75%
History	1,531	93%	78%
Music	388	93%	81%
Primary	15,098	94%	73%
Other	528	94%	74%
Art & Design	809	94%	76%
Modern Foreign Languages	1,101	94%	77%
Geography	660	94%	82%
Design & Technology	358	94%	83%
Drama	473	95%	74%
Classics	66	97%	56%
Physical Education	1,670	97%	70%

Initial teacher training performance profiles, Academic year 2021/22

Subjects with significant percentages of trainees in higher education have some of the highest completion rate, so higher education per se cannot be faulted for having an overall lower rate of employment than school-based provision.

However, if the government wants to keep trainees in the state-school system, offering salaried courses base din schools seems like a good idea. Wasn’t that what the School Direct salaried route was designed to do? As I pointed out in an earlier blog, the numbers on employment-based routes are now fewer than in the latter years of the last Labour government. Possibly time for a rethink?

Need for new drive on apprenticeships at 18?

Posted on July 26, 2023 by John Howson

Should Labour be focusing more on the challenges within the state school system rather than trumpeting its desire to remove some benefits from private schools? One such challenge is around the chance of a pupil in a non-selective secondary school in an area identified by the DfE as a ‘highly selective area of or secondary schooling’ progressing to a sustained Level 4 or higher qualification from school or college. Level 4 and above qualifications include, undergraduate degrees (a Level 6 qualification); apprenticeship at level 4 or higher; or any other qualification at Level 4 or 5.

The DfE definition of non-selective schools in highly selective area includes all non-selective schools in local authorities with a high level of selection (where 25% or more of state-funded secondary places are in state-funded selective schools). These local authorities are Bexley, Buckinghamshire, Kent, Lincolnshire, Medway, Poole, Slough, Southend-on-Sea, Sutton, Torbay, Trafford and Wirral.

There are selective schools in other areas, but they don’t past this test, such as parts of Essex, Enfield and Birmingham.

The table below is taken from Progression to higher education or training, Academic year 2020/21 – Explore education statistics – GOV.UK (explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk) has been sorted to rank institutions by their outcomes for the type of institution in terms of a sustained Level 4 or above destination. (6 months in a two year period.) The two year period ended just after the covid pandemic started in the spring of 2020, so that may have had some effect on the outcomes.

However, the FE colleges produce the bulk of young people entering the workforce or becoming a NEET (Not in employment, education or training) at the end of Year 13.

Kenneth Baker’s experiment with 14-18 schools, whether studio schools or University Technical Colleges, as a sector produce slightly better outcomes in terms of destinations, but not by much. Slightly ahead of this group is the non-selective schools in highly selective areas, most of which were once known as secondary modern schools.

Institution type	Sustained a level 4 or higher destination	Progression score *
Other FE sector colleges	47.0	-3.1
Total Mainstream Colleges	54.9	-1.2
Studio Schools	55.6	1.2
University Technical College	59.3	1.6
Non-selective school in highly selective area	62.0	-4.0
Total Schools and colleges	66.0	0.0
Sponsored academy	69.4	1.1
Sixth form colleges	73.1	3.4
Other non-selective school	73.5	1.0
Total academies & free schools	74.6	0.7
Total Schools	74.6	0.9
LA maintained schools	74.9	1.9
Converter academy	75.7	0.4
Free 16-19	77.0	3.7
Free Schools	83.1	7.1
Selective school	88.5	2.4

Source: Progression to higher education or training, Academic year 2020/21

Interestingly, Six Form Colleges, academies and free schools as a sector and other non-selective schools had very similar outcomes. Converter academies and the relatively small Free School sector do better than the average for schools, but, as might be expected, it is selective schools that have the highest ranking. Indeed, one might ask why their score isn’t even higher?

For parents aspiring to see their offspring continue in education after eighteen, there are some clear messages in terms of outcome by institution. For political parties espousing the concept of either levelling up or equality of opportunity the question of the value to society as a whole of selective schools probably ought to be at least as important as concerns about the benefits of private education, since it is state funding that is producing the range of outcomes.

My guess is that because of the current teacher supply crisis the next set of data post-covid will have seen the range become even greater than in this study.

* For an understanding of the progression score please consult the DfE documentation where there is a detailed explanation of how the score is calculated.

Death of the arts

Posted on July 25, 2023 by John Howson

The grim news from the July data on recruitment to ITT postgraduate courses starting this autumn is that most arts subjects are recording offer levels below those of last year. Initial teacher training application statistics for courses starting in the 2023 to 2024 academic year – Apply for teacher training – GOV.UK (apply-for-teacher-training.service.gov.uk)

The 2022 recruitment round was the worst for many years, and while some subjects have recovered from the disastrous offer levels of last year, the arts subjects have continued their downward trend in offers in most cases. This is grim news for schools wanting to recruit for September 2024, as the data in the table below makes clear.

Subjects where offers are below the July 2022 and July 2021 levels

Art

Religious Education

Physical Education

Music

History

Subjects where offers are above the July 2022 abut below July 2021 levels

Languages

Mathematics

Computing

Chemistry

Business Studies

Subjects where offers are above the July 2022 and July 2021 levels

Physics

Geography

English

Design & Technology

Biology

Subjects where offers are below the July 2022 levels

Drama

Classics

‘Other’ subjects

Subjects in italics are those where it seems likely that the 2023 target will not be met even if ‘offers’ are better this year.

Both art and music are subjects where offers are down this year compared with 2022. In the case of art from 910 in July 2021 to just 478 this July. For music, the fall during the same period has been from 410 offers to just 224 offers this July. Drama is down from 364 offers last July to 275 this July. Offers at this level, even if all candidates turn up, will not produce enough trainees to meet the needs of schools next year.

The good news, such as it appears to be, is in subjects such as English, languages (other than classics) and geography. These are subjects where the level of applications has been large enough to allow offer levels to mean that the target should be met for the year.

However, a word of warning. Recruited numbers in four regions, including both London and the South East are below the number recorded in July 2022. Overall ‘recruited’ total is 3,395 down on July 2022, of 3,911. Also, those with ‘conditions pending’ are down by 124 on last year, creating a net loss across these two categories. There must, therefore be some uncertainty about the outcome of the recruitment round in terms of trainee numbers that will turn up in September.

Numbers of applicants in the youngest age categories are still below those for July 2022, whereas applications from candidates in the older age groupings continue to be above the levels seen in 2022.

The number of rejected applications has increased from 31,124 in July 2022 to 52,350 in July 2023. Lat year that represented 31.5% of applications. This July, it represented 40% of applications. Whether or not this increase is related to the origins of the applications is impossible to tell from the data. However, it would not surprise me if many of those rejected were in the ‘rest of the world’ category.

Barring any last-minute change next month, and with many school-based schemes not actively recruiting now, it seems likely that 2024 with be another grim year for schools recruiting teachers, especially, but not exclusively in some of the art subjects that the independent sector values more highly that the government seems to do.

Free School Meals and teacher vacancies

Posted on July 21, 2023 by John Howson

Now that the summer term has ended it’s time to take our annual look at classroom teacher turnover by level of free school meals (FSM) in schools. Last year, in 2022, this blog looked at turnover in one shire county Teacher vacancies and Free School Meals | John Howson (wordpress.com) so, I thought I would return to look at the same county for the period 1^st January 2023 to 21^st July 2023. TeachVac allows that real time look at what is happening.

Last year the outcome of the research was:

January to July 2022

FSM percentage	Number of Schools	Recorded vacancies	Vacancies per school
0-9.9%	18	359	20.0
10-20%	14	387	27.6
20%+	6	281	46.0

Source: TeachVac

For January to July 2023

FSM percentage	Number of Schools	Recorded vacancies	Vacancies per school
0-9.9%	12	213	17.75
10-20%	19	474	25.00
20%+	9	221	24.50

Source: TeachVac

This is recognized to be a very crude measure, partly because schools are of different sizes and also because of the fact that new schools may be appointing staff for the first time. What, however, is interesting is the fact that the cost of living crisis, even in a shire county in the south of England, may have resulted in a decrease in schools in the group of schools with the lowest FSM percentages. The remaining schools in this group has seen the recorded vacancies per school fall compared with the same period in 2022.

There has also been a significant fall in vacancies per school among the highest group, where vacancies per school have nearly halved. Is this down to better vacancy management and cost control as schools now recognize that for some subjects it is pointless just repeatedly advertising for a teacher? Has the profile of this group of schools also changed, as three more schools have joined the group?

If the 14-18 school is removed from the table, the vacancy per school for the 20%+ FSM group increases to 26.9 this year. Still a big improvement on 2022, but maintaining the profile of higher percentage of FSM pupil school experiencing more vacancies and either higher turnover or more difficulties in filling posts than schools with lower FSM percentages.

Many of the schools within the shire county boundary are in one large local MAT that now takes recruitment seriously, so it may well be that the decrease in vacancies recorded, from 1,027 to 908, is as a result of better vacancy management, especially since pupil numbers have been on the increase over the two years.

Across all the schools the most advertised subjects were:

Science 146 recorded advertisements

Mathematics 115 recorded advertisements

Design & Technology 113 recorded advertisements – including one school with 22 recorded advertisements in this subject

English 104 recorded advertisements

In the humanities, there were 56 recorded advertisements for teachers of geography, but only 21 for teachers of history. 15 schools had no recorded advertisement for a teacher of history.

So, in 2023 the link between FSM and teacher turnover is weaker in this geographical area than it was in 2022. This seems to be down to a combination of increased percentages of FSM, as the cost of living crisis increases, and perhaps a better handle on recruitment in one of the large MATs. How to disseminate the message across all schools that vacancy management matters is an interesting question? Is there a role for the Schools’ Forum or the regional Director?

Congratulations to The North East

Posted on July 20, 2023 by John Howson

The DfE has published data around revised numbers on the first cohort and provisional numbers in the second cohorts of Early Career Framework and National Professional Qualifications starting in 2022-23. The data is for both Early Career Framework and National Professional Qualifications (ECF and NPQs). Teacher and Leader development: ECF and NPQs, Academic year 2022/23 – Explore education statistics – GOV.UK (explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk)

In this blog I look at some of the percentages around the National Professional Qualification for Teacher and Leader Development.

As might be expected, starts have increased from 5.5% of the workforce to 6.4% or close to 35,000 teachers.

	Teacher Leader Development
	NPQs
Characteristic	2022-23
Headteacher	8.54%
Deputy Head	10.27%
Assistant Head	10.39%
Classroom	5.61%
Secondary	6.04%
Primary	6.61%
Female	6.26%
Male	6.82%
Black	7.46%
Asian	5.48%
North East	7.46%
Hartlepool	10.16%

DfE csv file all data

In view of some of the recent comments that teachers are not interested in leadership positions, it is interesting to see that over one in ten assistant or deputy heads registered for an NPQ this year. The region with the highest overall percentage registering was the North East at 7.46%, with Hartlepool local authority area topping the list at 10.16% of the workforce. By comparison, Hampshire was recorded at just 3.81%. Hampshire is a part of the country that has had issues recruiting primary school head teachers for some of its schools in recent times.

The percentage from the ‘black’ ethnic group was, at 7.46%, above the national overall average, whereas the percentage for the Asian ethnic group, at 5.48%, was below the overall average.

Despite the greater numbers of deputy and assistant heads in the secondary sector, the primary sector at 6.61% recorded a percentage of the workforce enrolled that was above that for the secondary sector’s 6.04%.

Perhaps not surprisingly, the age grouping with the highest percentage, at 8.13%, was the 30-39 age grouping. This is the grouping where promotion through the grades is most likely for those seeking a career in leadership.

The percentage for Early Career Teachers shows that most started on provider-led courses with less than 5% on school-led provision. My anxiety with the ECT is not the numbers that started but the provision for those, most likely in the primary sector, that might not have started teaching until January 2023. Were they able to access the ECT framework from the start.

As I have pointed out in the past, if the market model of teacher supply works correctly, then the least successful trainees will take the longest to find teaching posts and may constitute a significant proportion of the January entrants into classroom teaching. This group would obviously benefit from access straightaway to the ECF. Indeed, for those searching for teaching post in the autumn, but not yet successful, should there be some means of support and continued development during this extended period of job hunting so that they do not lose the degree of skills developed during their training?

Ethnic Minority Head Teachers: scant progress

Posted on July 15, 2023 by John Howson

In October 2021, I wrote a blog about the number of ethnic minority head teachers ‘We need more black headteachers in our schools’ | John Howson (wordpress.com) I thought it was time to bring the data up to date.

Year	Ethnic minority Head teachers (including white minorities)
2015/2016	1,473
2016/2017	1,480
2017/2018	1,512
2018/2019	1,531
2019/2020	1,530
2020/2021	1,532
2021/2022	1,564
2022/2023	1,627

Source Annual School Workforce Census

Despite the increase of 63 in the total number of these head teachers between November 2021 and November 2022, and including all minority groups not classified as ‘White British’ in the total, there were apparently only 1,627 head teachers self-identified as from minority backgrounds in November 2022. This an increase of only around 10%, or just 154 additional head teachers from minority backgrounds, over the eight years represented in the table. There may be more, because the number that refused to answer the question increased from 117 to 192 during the same period.

During the same period, the total of ‘White’ head teachers only changed from 19,520 in November 2019 to 19,104 in November 2022.

There is better news on the ITT front, where ITT undergraduate entrants from minority ethnic groups increased from 12% to 17% of the total intake between 2019/2020 and 2022/2023. For those on postgraduate courses, the increase in the percentage was from 19% to 22% during the same period. However, I suspect that the distribution was skewed towards certain parts of the country. Sadly, we don’t easily have access to that data.

The discussion at the Select Committee last Tuesday about discrimination and unconscious bias meaning that more ethnic minority applicants were not offered places mirrored the finding from the two studies that I conducted for the then National College. Progress is being made, but slowly. My research also found that ethnic minority applicants fared better when there were fewer applicants to select from, as there was in most subjects last year. What will happen if the economy slows and the number of applicants for ITT increases once again?

Given that boys from an African Caribbean background do relatively poorly in our schooling system, it would also be interesting to know whether there is more of a challenge recruiting men form minority backgrounds than there is recruiting women and whether certain subjects struggle more than others? How many physics ITT recruits came for ethnic minority backgrounds in each of the last five years, and were they recruited mainly from a small number of courses. If they aren’t in the pipeline of learning then they won’t be there to become teachers of future generations.

For over a quarter of a century we have been urging women into science, engineering and other STEM subjects. Should we now look to do the same with other under-represented groups. As a large employer of graduates, does teaching have a responsibility to not just recruit graduates but also to influence the pipeline. After all that pipeline starts in schools.

John Howson

Education and the numbers that affect what happens

Category Archives: economic

Becoming a primary school teacher: worth the risk?

A tale of two markets

Assessment Only route into teaching: sideshow or useful source of teachers?

More jobs: lower employment outcomes

ITT outcomes: reflections on employment

Need for new drive on apprenticeships at 18?

Death of the arts

Free School Meals and teacher vacancies

Congratulations to The North East

Ethnic Minority Head Teachers: scant progress