Shortage of lorry drivers: what about the shortage of physics teachers?

Posted on August 26, 2021 by John Howson

As schools across England prepare to return for the start of a new school year, are complaints about shortages of teachers with specific subject knowledge hitting the headlines? Sadly, no. A shortage of lorry drivers may make the national headlines, as this is an area where there haven’t been shortages in the past and the public can see the results in terms of empty supermarket shelves. But nothing has been said about a teacher supply crisis in certain subjects.

The failure of governments over many years to train enough teachers in some curriculum subjects no longer hits the headlines, but remain a genuine problem for schools. Today’s figures, from UCAS that relate to applications for course that start in September this year, and will provide the new teachers for September 2022 vacancies, make disturbing reading.

Those that follow the regular monthly reporting of this data on this blog will not be surprised at the numbers revealed in these figures, almost the last to be provided by UCAS before the DfE takes over the application process for the 2022 recruitment round.

The short-lived Covid boom in seeking to train as a teacher is well and truly over. Applications between July and August this year for secondary subjects were the lowest since 2016.

	July Aug increase
2015	3110
2016	2990
2017	4080
2018	5320
2019	5450
2020	6270
2021	3180

This decline is not due to places being filled. Across the board, in the subjects this blog has covered over the years, only Chemistry is reporting a larger number of those applications with offers and that’s probably due to a change in the bursary arrangements. However, the increase in chemistry trainees in no way offsets the reduction in applications with offers in biology. Across the three key sciences, applications with offers are down by nearly 1,000 on this point last year. This blog can confidently predict that there will be a shortage of physics teachers again in 2022.

Another bellwether indicator is the change in the number of male applicants. At 12,470, this is approaching 2,000 fewer than in August last year. Fortunately, the fall in the number of women applicants is smaller in percentage terms.

If there is a spark of good news in these figures it is that more applicants in London have been offered places than last year. The percentage of applicants in London either ‘placed’, ‘conditional placed’ or ‘holding an offer’ increased from 61% last August to 66% this August. That means two thirds of applicants across both primary and secondary courses have effectively been accepted onto a course. It would be interesting to see the data by subject for courses in the capital. Even this good news comes with a possible caveat. Will Teach First find it harder to place students in London schools if it is competing with other providers for classroom space?

The government may solve the crisis lorry drivers by arranging more driving tests and even releasing army HGV drivers to work for selected companies, but the staffing crisis in our schools is going to continue into 2022 and beyond. Without a change in policy, there won’t be much levelling up in physics teaching and design and technology is in danger of disappearing from the curriculum in any meaningful way unless more teachers can be trained.

Next month we will report on the last monthly figures from UCAS and reflect upon nearly 30 years of following the trends in applications for teacher preparation courses by graduates. Thank you for reading.

August lull in teaching jobs

Posted on August 20, 2021 by John Howson

The announcement that vacancies across the economy have picked up will be good news for those teachers unable to find a teaching post. As is normal, August is a quiet month for teaching vacancies, although there are some new vacancies still being posted every working day, as those registered with TeachVac www.teachvac.co.uk can testify.

Of course, with many of their administrative staff working term time only contracts, schools in some cases will be saving jobs for the return of those staff who can then post them on the school website and elsewhere.

The return of jobs in the wider economy is likely to affect recruitment into teaching as a career, especially if the bounce in wage growth were to continue while wages in public sector positions were affected by a government imposed wage freeze. The first real evidence on how the wider economy is impacting upon teaching as a career will come with the new recruitment into ITT season, although that will be further complicated by the new arrangements controlled by the DfE. Data should be available by late autumn.

Evidence from TeachVac shows that it is growing in use as a platform for teachers looking for teaching jobs and still has many more teaching jobs on offer than the government site run by the DfE. Registrations at https://www.teachvac.co.uk/ continue to grow

Mutterings about the changes to the ITT curriculum and the degree of DfE control over the sector may have an impact, especially if some universities decide to offer ITT outside the government envelope and continue with research and professional development activities as their main focus.

Although the country will need to train fewer teachers in the years to come as the fall in the birth rate impacts on schools, the system cannot withstand too high a degree of uncertainty and reorganisation with there being some effects on the labour market for teachers. No doubt the private sector will be watching carefully what happens as it still draws on the government funded university sector for many of its new teachers.

A look back at history

Posted on August 12, 2021 by John Howson

Eight years ago this month I wrote a post on this blog pointing out my concerns that not all places on ITT courses were likely to be filled that year. My views made it into some national newspapers and resulted in me writing the blog post that I reproduce below. We still have issues with teacher supply in key subjects, but we do possibly have a review of how we train teachers. Whether the outcome will be more trainees filling gaps in schools where they are needed is still an open question.

Scaremongering!

Posted on August 14, 2013 1

So now I know I am officially a scaremonger. A DfE spokesperson, helpfully anonymous, is quoted by the Daily Mail today as saying of my delving into the current teacher training position that there was no teacher shortage, adding: ‘This is scaremongering and based on incomplete evidence.’

Well the first thing to note is that I haven’t said that there is a teacher shortage, just that training places are not being filled: not the same thing. Indeed, I have said a teacher shortage is less likely than in the past in the near future because Mr Gove has mandated that qualified teachers from Canada, Australia, New Zealand and the whole of the USA can teach here as qualified teachers with no need to retrain. With an oversupply of teachers in parts of both Canada and Australia that should prevent any short-term problem developing even though another part of the government isn’t very keen on importing workers from abroad, presumably including from within the Commonwealth and a one time colony.

More serious is the charge of using ‘incomplete evidence’ in reaching my conclusions. If the DfE has figures to show that more places will be filled this September on teacher training courses than I am predicting, then please will they share them with the wider community, if not, will they please justify what they mean.

It could be that they take issue with my colleague Chris Waterman’s assessment of the number of those likely to be taught Mathematics by unqualified teachers. However, it is worth noting that earlier this year the DfE produced its own evidence to show that 17.9% of the Mathematics hours taught to years 7-13 were led by those with ‘no relevant post A Level qualification’. That was some 85,000 hours of instruction. Assuming each class of pupils has six hours of contact per week that makes more than 14,000 classes already being taught by unqualified staff, and with no programme in place to improve their qualifications if they are intending to teach the subject for a period of time. If each class has only 20 pupils, the total number of pupils already being taught by teachers with no measurable post A Level qualification in Mathematics can easily be worked out. It is also worth pointing out that the DfE showed that in November 2012 less than half of those teaching Mathematics had a degree that could be classified as a Mathematics degree, with 23% having a PGCE as their highest Mathematics qualification and a degree in another subject, hopefully with lots of applied mathematics as a apart of the degree.

As Chris Waterman has rightly pointed out the raising of the participation age to 17 this September and 18 a year later should increase the demand for Mathematics teachers as the Wolf Report endorsed the now widely held view that more youngsters should continue to study Mathematics until the age of18.

The government has taken a bold gamble with teacher education: moving training to schools; introducing pre-entry tests in literacy and numeracy; raising the cost of training in many subjects to £9,000 for fees plus living costs. It is important that there is a credible debate about how these changes are working.

After all, in 2010, Mr Gove promised 200 teachers of Mandarin would be trained each year, and although some providers such as the London Institute offer it as an option I doubt that target was ever reached. It is time for a radical overhaul of teacher preparation to really meet the needs of a 21^st century education system.

Eight years on and who really cares about the qualifications and subject knoweldge of those that teach all our children across England?

What goes around, comes around?

Posted on August 9, 2021 by John Howson

One of the advantages of the long lazy days of summer, especially when the British weather turns more autumnal is that it promotes alternative activities, such as clearing our bookshelves that have become overloaded.

Looking through some hidden gems from the 1990s, I came across my copy of Bines and Welton’s ‘Managing Partnership in Teacher Training and Development’. Published by Routledge in 1995, the book examined the early consequences of the changes in teacher preparation and development following the then Conservative government’s creation of the Teacher Training Agency.

My modest contribution to the book was to help write part of the conclusion. Even then, academic writing wasn’t for me.

It is interesting to read the whole book in the light of the recent DfE market review of ITT, but especially to consider the section on planning for teacher supply and development (pages 210-214).

Consider this statement

“Another aspect of implementing current strategic plans for teacher supply involves ensuring the provision of teachers with the right mix of subject expertise, age phase and geographical distribution. However, the present geographical and institutional pattern of teacher education is largely the product of incremental change rather than a coherent strategy.” (Bines & Welton, page 211)

How much more rationale is the provision of teacher education today than it was a quarter of a century ago? Judging by the lack of places in some subjects in some parts of the country, one might think that little has changed other than new routes have entered the market, and in some cases disappeared, as with the Fast Track Scheme.

So, will the latest discussions about teacher preparation and career development create a more rational approach based on a clear policy or just another political decision in favour of one type of solution than another?

Will the market approach still dominate or will there be an attempt to ensure sufficient teacher numbers for all types of school and all parts of England in a more regulated fashion than just predicting demand for teachers through the Teacher Supply Model?

Judging by the recent reaction to the issues surrounding the number of doctors to be trained, where providers were told the cap was tight only to see a volte face as results day approached, it is possible to be sceptical about the likely outcome of the review of teacher education. After all, nobody ever seems to be held to account when yet another year of missed targets for subjects means some schools will likely go without teachers properly qualified in certain subjects and able to teach to Key Stage 5. Indeed, it is possible, due to the working of the market, for those teachers best equipped to teach ‘A’ level to end up in 11-16 schools without a sixth form.

What are the principles underlying the creation, development and deployment of the teacher workforce in England? Basically, the same as a quarter century or even a half century ago? New courses and providers may appear, and schools be more involved with longer classroom based practice, but the real policy questions still seem to be ignored. For more on this theme it is worth looking at this post from 2014. https://johnohowson.wordpress.com/2014/06/23/a-submission-to-the-carter-review/

Sorry to read this

Posted on August 7, 2021 by John Howson

https://www.tes.com/news/statement-future-fe-coverage-tes So the tes – once The Times Educational Supplement – is now focusing on schools and ending its coverage of the Further Education sector. I imagine that there will be staff in the sector that will still follow the tes because their work is similar to that of their colleagues in schools. But, they will no longer have a dedicated focus on their varied and interesting sector.

I wonder where this leaves the main publication. Looking at the accounts submitted for the year to last August by the American owners – available for all to see on the companies’ house website – recruitment advertising still plays a very large part in the tes’s revenue stream.

At this time of year, schools are reviewing their subscriptions to the tes. Most of the tes income on recruitment comes from subscriptions these days, rather than placed advertisements for specific posts. As TeachVac steadily increases its teacher base, and thus both ‘hits’ and matches. More than 6.7 million of the former in the past twelve months and more than a million matches made so far in 2021, schools might want to evaluate TeachVac more closely. After all, cash is tight for many, if not most, schools and funding won’t become any more generous with a funding formula linked so closely to pupil numbers.

In the past falling pupil numbers had less effect of school incomes. Now there is a direct relationship between funding and pupil numbers it can make sense to take our unnecessary costs. Comparing TeachVac with the hopeless DfE vacancy site is a no-brainer, especially when TeachVac has more than four times the number of teaching posts this week than are listed on the DfE site. To allow users to compare the site, TeachVac www.teachvac.co.uk now has a live jobs counter on its front page.

As tes owners finalise their accounts for the 2020-21 financial year that ends at the end of August their first priority must be to ensure sufficient income to pay their bondholders. That’s why recruitment subscriptions for schools in England are so important. We won’t see these accounts until perhaps May of 2022, but those running the company already know what is happening to their income stream.

The ending of a FE offering by tes must tell watchers something. A concentration of effort on the core school sector or a need to further prune peripheral activities that don’t pay their way.

With fewer pupils in schools in England, demand for teachers is likely to fall unless more teachers can either be enticed to work abroad in the international schools or quit teaching for other professions. Either way, jobs in key subjects are down so far in 2021 in the lucrative secondary school market, but up in the primary sector where tes traditionally had more competition, not least from local authority job boards.

The next twelve months are going to be an interesting time in the teacher recruitment market. As its Chair, I look forward to the par that TeachVac will play in shaping future trends.

More doctors: fewer teachers?

Posted on August 6, 2021 by John Howson

The news that the government may be raising the cap on places at medical schools for trainee doctors is surely a good outcome for society, but may be a concern for those that are involved with teacher preparation courses.

Both are areas of funding where the government keeps close control over the supply of places. As has been discussed in previous posts on this blog, the recent market review into ITT by the DfE plus a falling birth rate and a reducing school population due to outward migration and an increase in home schooling, has raised the spectre of reductions in the number of primary teacher training places likely to be sanctioned in the short-term by the DfE, and a likely reduction in the number of secondary places once the decade reaches its midway point.

If the DfE has to find more funds for training more doctors, might it be tempted to bring any reduction in teacher preparation numbers forward to start in this autumn’s announcements for 2022 entry? Higher Education might like the reduction to be in postgraduate provision, but the DfE could make more top line savings by reducing undergraduate primary numbers. However, it seems likely that students not offered places on undergraduate course might still decide to attend university and enter teaching through the postgraduate route.

One consideration should be determining which route provides the applicants that best meet the needs of the sector? For instance, how do the ‘A’ level points scores of undergraduates starting primary teacher preparation courses match the scores of their postgraduate colleagues starting such courses.

The regular annual performance profiles might also offer some indications of the type of courses the DfE would possibly favour if there are reductions in places on offer. However, that will also be determined by the DfE’s priorities in terms of quality and other factors, such as employment outcomes and no doubt the contribution to the ‘levelling up’ agenda.

The takeover by the DfE of the postgraduate recruitment process from UCAS adds another uncertainty into the mix. Will the data be available from the DfE, as it has been from UCAS, and before that the GTTR (Graduate Teacher Training Registry), weekly and then monthly data that allowed seasoned ITT watchers to predict the outcome of the recruitment round as early as February or March of each year?

If it isn’t forthcoming, the answer might be regular monthly FOI requests until civil servants understood the message about the need for transparency in data that is best described to the Office for National Statistics as management information rather than statistics.

Teach First trainees have already started their courses, and many other providers will be gearing up for a start early in September. As ever, I wish the staff and the trainees well, and hope that those embarking on a career as a teacher will enjoy the experience of what can be a wonderful, but at times challenging career. Every bit as good as being a doctor, even if not as well paid.

TeachVac updates website with vacancy counter

Posted on August 6, 2021 by John Howson

Teachers can now see at a glance how many vacancies TeachVac has each day. www.teachvac.co.uk The site displays an overall total and the number of vacancies in some key subject areas and the primary sector. Of course, as it is August, vacancy numbers are low, so there is also the total for the year to date.

TeachVac is geared to the needs of teachers. As a result, it only carries teaching jobs. The DfE vacancy site, for instance, has both teaching and non-teaching vacancies. Earlier this week 146 of the 262 vacancies listed on the DfE vacancy site weren’t teaching jobs. Many were for Teaching Assistants, but there were also a plethora of other types of job. There were 110 teaching jobs plus six duplicated jobs. So, less than half the vacancies were for teaching posts. By comparison, TeachVac had 507 live teaching jobs listed by schools across England on the same day

Teachers want a site where they can receive the widest possible range of teaching posts that meet their needs both in terms of location and sills. I am proud of the achievements of TeachVac during the years since it was set up to demonstrate a new way of linking teachers with the jobs they were seeking, whether as a newly qualified teacher; an existing teacher changing schools or seeking promotion of someone wanting to return to teaching.

TeachVac is recording record monthly visits and ‘hits’ on the website as the message spreads among teachers and schools. At this time of year, schools are looking to renew existing deals with other listing services. They should ask whether the price represents good value for money.

TeachVac has also enabled me, as its Chair, to produce blogs using the data, such as the recent posting about whether there are fewer jobs or just fewer re-advertisements? As that post mentioned, a unique job reference number would provide much better data about the functioning of the labour market for teachers. I have campaigned, so far without any success on that issue as with the issue of making the term ‘teacher’ a reserved occupation that can only be used by those with Qualified Teacher Status.

If you haven’t tried TeachVac yet, then please do so. The team on the Isle of Wight would love to have your feedback.

Fewer jobs or just fewer re-advertisement?

Posted on August 4, 2021 by John Howson

Without unique job reference numbers, keeping track of changes in the labour market for teachers requires some careful detective work. While most vacancies are probably filled from the first advertisement, some are not, causing the post to be re-advertised. Some posts are also advertised in several different locations, usually without a school considering whether such a practice is cost effective.

There are also some schools that advertise ‘talent banking’ vacancies where there is probably not a job behind the advertisement, but the school can access details of potential applicants when a vacancy does arise. This is a common practice in the recruitment world, and can mislead those seeking to understand how many teaching vacancies there really are in a year.

TeachVac www.teachvac.co.uk now has the data from the first seven months of 2021 for the teacher labour market in England. Overall, vacancies recorded are up from 42,700 to 45,400 for the first seven months of this year compared with the same period in 2020. However, there are marked differences between the sectors. Primary vacancies are up by 40% from 10,000 to 14,000 whereas secondary headline vacancy numbers are down by some 7%.

But, are secondary vacancies really down, or is it just that more vacancies are being filled at first advertisement? Business Studies, one of the subjects largely ignored by governments that normally struggles to find sufficient applicants registered a 2% increase in 2021, against the overall downward trend. Most subjects with increases this year are minority subjects such as economic; health and Social Care; Law; psychology and sociology. However Design and Technology has experienced a similar 2% increase to that of business studies and biology has recorded a 3% increase. Interestingly, physical education has also seen a 2% increase.

More spectacular are the 18% decrease in vacancies in mathematics and the 15% in general science posts. (Specific physics vacancies fell by 7%). English vacancies were down by 11%.

In order to gauge how much of the deduction might be down to less need to re-advertise, vacancies for teachers of mathematics posted by school in the London Region were reviewed for the January to July period in each year between 2018 and 2021

	Total schools	Schools 2+ vacancies	Schools 4+ vacancies
2021	185	51%	10%
2020	181	52%	15%
2019	184	61%	23%
2018	155	57%	17%

Source: TeachVac

There are certainly fewer schools with more than one vacancy both this year and in 2020. The reduction in the percentage of schools with 4+ vacancies is even more marked. This might suggest that in the London Region there might be some credence to the theory that schools have found posts easier to fill since the pandemic struck. This despite the fact that the total number of schools posting at least one vacancy for a teacher of mathematics has remained consistent over the past three years at between 181 and 185 schools in both the state and independent sectors recorded as placing a vacancy for a teacher of mathematics.

Within London there are regional differences with South East London schools seemingly finding recruitment more of a challenge than schools north of the River Thames.

Latin before physics

Posted on August 1, 2021 by John Howson

The government’s announcement about a boost to the teaching of Latin in state schools doesn’t seem to have been met with universal approval.

The DfE notice said that:

The Government is also announcing the next phase of the £16.4m Mandarin Excellence Programme, and the fourth year of the £4.8 million modern foreign languages pilot, which supports schools to teach French, German and Spanish up to GCSE.

In addition to learning Latin, the new programme announced today will include activities such as visits to Roman heritage sites to give pupils a deeper understanding of Classics, and life in the ancient world. https://www.gov.uk/government/news/thousands-more-students-to-learn-ancient-and-modern-languages

So, good news for the many sites and museums along the length of Hadrian’s Wall, and no doubt the City of Bath, as well as many Roman Villas around the country, where they can expect more school parties descending upon them in the future.

In view of the data about applications to teach modern languages, the government has to do something for the teaching of modern languages lest it start to disappear from some school curriculums. The further push for Mandarin is welcome, but we are nowhere near the target for such teachers set out when Michael Gove was Education Secretary.

The announcement about languages was no doubt supported by Mr Gibb’s recent speech about a ‘knowledge rich’ curriculum that paid scant attention to the relationship between schooling and the real world. Now I have nothing against knowledge, and am all in favour of knowledge as vocabulary. But what about subjects such as design and technology.

Will the government axe design and technology from the curriculum as not knowledge based? And, too difficult to find staff to teach it? In order to teach Latin to more young people you need either to stop teaching something else or to lengthen the amount of schooling young people are exposed to each week. To do the latter would cost more money, and doesn’t seem an option in the present economic state of the nation. So what to drop in favour of Latin?

Teachers in 1870 used knowledge in the absence of textbooks to drill facts into young minds. Do young people need to know the name of a Nineteenth century Prime Minister or, more importantly what a Prime minster is? Knowledge of or knowledge to be able to do something? Which is more important?

Is it more important that young people knows the names of prime ministers or that they know how important in a democracy it is to vote? Which will increase voting patterns among 18-25 year olds once they have the vote?

Similarly, do we need to ensure all young children know how to use a knife and fork at the same time that they have learnt their alphabet? Is leveling up just about teaching everyone the same things or ensuring a common set of knowledge and skills acquired mutually through home and school? Those entering school this September will not retire from work until 2070, and any may well see the next century arrive. The school curriculum is for their needs. So where does the environment and climate change fit into the knowledge agenda of Ministers?

John Howson

Education and the numbers that affect what happens

Monthly Archives: August 2021