Yesterday’s post about the grim news on recruitment onto teacher preparation courses for 2022/23 didn’t mine all the possible information provided in the DfE data published in the monthly update.
One interesting statistic are how the proportion of applicants for secondary subjects has changed over the course of the year. Last December, I wrote a blog post pointing out that nearly half of early applicants came from just three subjects: English, mathematics and physical education. Half of secondary ITT applicants in just 3 subjects | John Howson (wordpress.com)
As expected, physical education trended lower as the year progressed, and places on courses filled up. The subject ended the year on 19% of total applications – down 5% on December. English also lost ground, down from 13% in December to 8% by September. However, mathematics seemed to be a ‘late attracting subject’, as by September the subject accounted for 18% of applications, up from 12% in December.
Removing these three subjects from the list and comparing the moves among the remaining subjects shows relatively little difference in many subjects in their position in the ranking.
| Subject | Total December | Percentage December | Total September | Percentage September | % Difference |
| Art and design | 378 | 6% | 2410 | 7% | 1 |
| Biology | 552 | 9% | 3457 | 10% | 1 |
| Business studies | 283 | 5% | 1601 | 4% | 1 |
| Chemistry | 509 | 8% | 4055 | 11% | 3 |
| Classics | 62 | 1% | 261 | 1% | na |
| Computing | 309 | 5% | 2248 | 6% | 1 |
| Design and technology | 243 | 4% | 1638 | 5% | 1 |
| Drama | 352 | 6% | 1426 | 4% | -2 |
| Geography | 385 | 6% | 2498 | 7% | 1 |
| History | 1057 | 18% | 4531 | 13% | -5 |
| Modern foreign languages | 568 | 9% | 3880 | 11% | 2 |
| Music | 191 | 3% | 1160 | 3% | 0 |
| Other | 564 | 9% | 2321 | 6% | -3 |
| Physics | 307 | 5% | 2830 | 8% | 3 |
| Religious education | 231 | 4% | 1541 | 4% | 0 |
| 5991 | 100% | 35857 | 100% |
As might have been predicted, drama and history lost ground once courses filled up. The sciences were the main winners. This suggests that subjects that may have a higher proportion of men may recruit later in the round – we cannot know for certain as the data on gender isn’t published by subject – but it is a plausible hypothesis to discuss in relation to gender and STEM subjects.
The second hypothesis is that subjects where potential teachers know there may be difficulty in securing a place on a teacher preparation course will recruit earlier in the year. These bellwether subjects, such as history, physical education and also the primary sector can provide early warning on what might be to come in the autumn months.
As a piece of history, it was using this second hypothesis in the early 2000s that prompted me to call a recruitment crisis as early as one November and to be warned off by the then Minister’s Private Office in a phone call I took while a passenger in a car travelling down the M5 in Somerset for creating panic. The following March, the training grant was suddenly announced. Perhaps, I have been at this subject for too long.
Knowing this sort of information about recruitment trends can make the use of expensive TV marketing more precise. Is the present TV campaign a good use of money or would it be better aimed at STEM subjects in the spring?