Happy Birthday

Today is the ninth birthday of this blog! A birthday is a good time to look back at what was written in the past on the blog. One of the interesting posts came early in the life of the blog, in July 2013, when I called for action by the government and suggested that “ministers must take urgent action if we are not to see a re-run of the crisis in teacher recruitment that occurred in the early days of the Blair government.” The full quote is reproduced below and can be seen on the blog by searching the July 2013 posts.

“Coming, as this outcome does, after several years when recruitment to teacher training has largely not been an issue, the present situation is a wake-up call for all concerned, and ministers must take urgent action if we are not to see a re-run of the crisis in teacher recruitment that occurred in the early days of the Blair government.  There are two months left before the training courses start, so all is not yet lost. However, if my predictions prove accurate, some schools are going to struggle to recruit teachers next summer: good news for recruitment agencies, but probably not for some pupils. And, as I have said before, this is no way to create a world-class education system.”

Extract from

Has Michael Gove failed to learn the lessons of history?

Posted on July 2, 2013

There was a fairly swift response from Sanctuary Buildings that sparked something of a spat and the first Statistical Bulletin on the Teacher Supply Model for a while. Regular readers can make their own minds up about the extent to which I was “scaremongering” or a prophet ‘crying in the wilderness’. I wrote in August 2013 the following:

“So now I know I am officially a scaremonger. A DfE spokesperson, helpfully anonymous, is quoted by the Daily Mail today as saying of my delving into the current teacher training position that there was no teacher shortage, adding: ‘This is scaremongering and based on incomplete evidence.’

Well, the first thing to note is that I haven’t said that there is a teacher shortage, just that training places are not being filled: not the same thing. Indeed, I have said a teacher shortage is less likely than in the past in the near future because Mr Gove has mandated that qualified teachers from Canada, Australia, New Zealand and the whole of the USA can teach here as qualified teachers with no need to retrain. With an oversupply of teachers in parts of both Canada and Australia that should prevent any short-term problem developing even though another part of the government isn’t very keen on importing workers from abroad, presumably including from within the Commonwealth and a onetime colony.”

Extract from

Scaremongering!

Posted on August 14, 2013

I suspect anyone interested in the supply of teachers of physics, design and technology and business studies may have a different view about these quotes from those interested in the supply of PE and history teachers.

The DfE now controls the whole teacher supply pipeline from applications to train as a teacher to offering a job board as somewhere for schools in the state sector to place vacancies. To talk or write of a local education service these days would be as much of a misnomer as the write of a local health service rather than of the NHS.

Understanding and controlling teacher supply is important in the national interest and it is worth speculating what the landscape of teacher supply might look like in another nine years if the DfE became seriously involved in the ‘levelling up’ agenda?

Directing new teachers where to work and directing the management of promotions by specifying how MATs ought to deploy their staff might just be two of the ‘innovations’ to look forward to in the next decade if market forces are abandoned in favour of a more interventionist approach.

I am not sure that this blog will be there to chronicle those changes, but I hope to make it to its tenth birthday next year, if that isn’t tempting fate too much.

London attracts would-be teachers

The DfE has now published the data on both applications and applicants for postgraduate teacher training courses recruited through their portal up to the 20th December 2021. As they helpfully point out, the data are not always directly comparable to that provided in previous rounds by UCAS. However. The general direction of travel is discernible enough to provide a measure comparison with previous UCAS data.

Apart from the data on applicants and applications – applicants may make a number of applications – data on those offered a place and those accepting the offer can be determined from some of the tables. In the case of that data the subjects do not aways align with those previously used by UCAS.

So, what to make of the data? A previous blog looked at the data early in December, the data considered here is for the month as a whole, up to the Christmas holiday break, and are best compared with 2019 data rather than 2020, as 2019 was the last year before the pandemic distorted the data.

Of most interest is the number of applications made in secondary subjects. Here the comparison with 2019 reveals a mixed picture. 43% of applications are for three subjects: PE (21%) English (13%) and history (9%). Add in biology (5%), and those four subjects account for almost half the applications for secondary subjects. Of course, as the courses in those subjects fill their places, their percentages will fall and those for other subjects will increase. Indeed, PE now takes a smaller share than in early December, demonstrating the early demand to train as a PE teacher despite the relative lack of teaching posts for those that do train as a PE teacher.

With language teaching in the news this week, it is interesting to see the subject accounts for just five per cent of applications, compared with the 13% each for English and mathematics that may account for a similar amount of curriculum time. Only 146 offers have been made in languages. However, this is one subject where comparison with UCAS isn’t really possible because of the change in method of recording the subject.

Compared with December 2019 data, in terms of offers, mathematics is doing well, as is design and technology, but from a very low base, and not yet offering the prospect of the subject meeting its target.

Applications for primary courses appear much healthier than they were in 2019, and the data would suggest there will be few problems in this sector. London still appears to be a good source of applicants with almost 17% of candidates. However, offer rates are much lower than in the north West. Maybe the timing of applications was later in London, and hasn’t yet allowed enough time for processing. However, this is something to watch as the recruitment round unfolds.

Overall applications are ahead of December 2019, by around some 2,000 with applicants domiciled in England around 500 ahead of December 2019 once applicants from outside England are removed from the total. This data reinforces the importance of the London region as a source of applicants.

Compared with December 2019, there are both more male and female applicants. The increase is spread across most of the age groups, with notable increases from those in the over-40 age-groups, including 29 candidates over the age of 60.

There is a regrettable lack of a breakdown by phase between the different types of courses. However, it is obvious that the School Direct salaried route is still out of favour, no doubt being partially replaced by the apprenticeship route.

With an overall buoyant labour market, and many areas of the public sector running TV advertising campaigns at the present time, teaching as a career for graduates will need to continue to do everything possible to attract applicants, especially in a wide range of secondary school subjects. 2022 may be hard work.

Recruitment 2022: a rough ride to come

Can you tell anything about the 2022 recruitment round for teachers in England based upon just four days of vacancy data? One of the advantages of a job board such as TeachVac www.teachvac.co.uk is the it has sufficient cumulative data on vacancies that can be allied with data about the numbers of teachers on preparation courses to be able to provide some helpful comments on the labour market, even after just four days of data.

For those that are sceptical of such a claim, consider sampling theory. A simple example is to assume a bowl of soup. A small spoonful will tell you whether or not the bowl if full of hot soup. Now scale up to a vat size container. Will a small sample tell you the same answer for the whole? Now purists might maintain that the bottom of the vat could be hotter than the top; I would agree. Taking that comment to vacancy data means that the comments for England as a whole might well include differences across the regions. Such an objection is true, and that is why each month TeachVac produces regional data for most secondary subjects and the primary sector. But it doesn’t invalidate sampling as a useful tool.

Anyway, back to our sample of 2022, and what I think it tells schools about the recruitment round this year. The first point is that it confirms what was being said at the end of 2021, appointments for September 2022 will be more of a challenge almost across the board as the 2020 bounce in interest in teaching as a career drops out of the supply side.

How bad will 2022 be? Well, nothing of concern in art, PE and history. Indeed, schools might well be starting to consider whether they can make use of an extra history teacher and perhaps an extra PE teacher to make use of the best of the trainees with second subject expertise in the pool of jobseekers.

At the other end of the scale, the usual suspects of design and technology where there will be real issues with recruitment have been joined this year by geography, modern languages and English. In the case of the latter two subjects this is partly because of the number of trainees on courses that will either already have placed them in the classroom or make it likely that they won’t be looking on the open market for a teaching post. Independent schools should take especial note of this fact when considering how easy it will be to recruit a teacher.

Most of the other subjects have seen the size of their ‘free pool’ decline this year compared with 2021, and that will have implications for January 2023 appointments. Such vacancies may be hard to fill in many subjects in those parts of England where recruitment is a challenge; namely London and the Home Counties.

Schools that have signed up to TeachVac’s £1,000 maximum annual recruitment package will receive regular updates on the state of the labour market, including local knowledge. On registration, and at no cost, schools receive a detailed report on the labour market.

Recruiters tell me that TeachVac is ‘too cheap’ to succeed because nothing that cheap could be any good. My principle in founding the job board was to show that recruitment advertising need not cost a lot of money. I still believe that to be true. Do you?

Half of secondary ITT applicants in just 3 subjects

The latest data on ITT applications, published by the DfE before the holiday break, revealed that just three subjects accounted for 49% of applicants to secondary ITT courses. Initial teacher training application statistics for courses starting in the 2022 to 2023 academic year – Apply for teacher training – GOV.UK (apply-for-teacher-training.service.gov.uk) The data are for applicants up to the 3rd December 2021.

SubjectTotalPercentage
Art and design3783%
Biology5525%
Business studies2832%
Chemistry5094%
Classics621%
Computing3093%
Design and technology2432%
Drama3523%
English153713%
Geography3853%
History10579%
Mathematics138512%
Modern foreign languages5685%
Music1912%
Other5645%
Physical education283224%
Physics3073%
Religious education2312%
11745100%

Source: DfE

English (13%); Mathematics (12%) and Physical Education (24%) together accounted for 49% of applicants, with PE accounting for nearly a quarter of the overall total!

So far, the TV advert being aired on one of the Freeview Channels doesn’t seem to be making a big impact in drawing in applicants in many subject areas, with most subjects recording in the region of 1-3% of the total.

The good news is that Physics applicants accounted for three percent of the total, but that is a third of the percentage of applicants for history. So, there is a long way to go to reach the totals needed to fill vacancies in September 2023 and January 2024 when these applicants will be job hunting.

Visit http://www.teachvac.co.uk for teaching posts across England in both State & private schools

In the run up to Christmas, the BBC ran a story about the likelihood of ex-teachers helping out in the classroom if the covid pandemic lays low large numbers of teachers in January. Covid: Doubts that ex-teachers will return by January – BBC News REC The Recruitment and Employment Confederation expressed the view that a backlog of DBS checks might hamper any return to the classroom even if ex-teachers were willing to do so.

The BBC story didn’t consider the many PE and history teachers that graduated from ITT in the summer and are already BDS checked and have not found a teaching job. An emergency scheme to offer them temporary employment ought to have been put in place already to ensure time wasn’t wasted, but the DFE doesn’t seem to be able to manage the market in such a manner. Of course, in former times, local authorities would have taken such action, but they have neither the cash nor the motivation to do so these days.   

More on November 2021 ITT applications

November is only the start of the cycle of applications for September 2022, so it is important not to read too much into the data published recently by the DfE. However, traditionally heavy recruiting subjects such as history and PE appear to be doing well as usual. English also did well in the first month. There were also good early outcomes in art; music; mathematics; design and technology and business studies. Physics; geography and computing might be seen to be at the number expected, whereas religious education; biology and chemistry had a weak start to the round. Even allowing for the different method of recording the data for applications for modern languages courses, it may well be that these are not as healthy as might be hoped. The loss of data about individual subjects means little can be said about the subject than that bald fact. Drama, a subject not previously covered on this blog, appears to have had a good level of applications and offers.

As to the geographical breakdown of applicants, we now have data for The Channel Islands – 5 applicants-, – the European Economic Zone – 78 applicants, and the Rest of the World – 589 applicants, of whom 92 were already unsuccessful – about 20% of all unsuccessful applicants so far.

If the numbers from the regions not included in the UCAS count are removed, the total looks very similar to the November 2020 total, after allowing for the extra time period this year. Applications are significantly up from the Eastern Region and The South West, but little different after allowing for the longer time period in the other regions of England.

Applications for primary courses are above the figure for November 2020, but applications overall for secondary courses are the same as last year (UCAS Table B8). In effect, with the extra few days included this year compared with 2020, this might be a real decline, but it is very early days.

School Direct salaried courses continue to attract fewer applications. These may have switched to Apprenticeships, where significant growth over 2020 has been recorded.  Higher Education has recorded virtually the same number of applications as last year, and there were modest increases in School Direct Fees route applications and good growth in SCITT applications. However, all these are not measured against any changes in places on offer. There is also no breakdown by sector: an unhelpful omission.

Overall, there seems little difference from the same point last year. It is to be hoped that the remainder of the recruitment round does not progress as last year, since the 2021 ITT census has some alarmingly low numbers of trainees currently on course to enter the labour market in September 2022. There is now nowhere for the DfE to hide. As they control the application process, they cannot be unaware of progress towards the number of places they want filled, both regionally and in the different phases and subjects. They can also put pressure on providers to work faster in dealing with applications.

Approaching 40% of candidate by provider region are in London, the south East or Eastern Regions. This is in line with where demand is in the labour market for teachers. However, a portion of that demand each year is from the private schools.

It will be February before a real picture emerges for September 2022, but I would already be worried about the outcome for some subjects.

Applicants for ITT in 2022: A first look at the DfE data

My thanks to NASBTT for pointing me in the direction of the first DfE statistics for Teacher Training applications. This is for those wanting to train in 2022/23; courses mostly starting next September. These graduates will enter the teaching labour market in September 2023.

This is the first year that the DfE are running the application process instead of UCAS. The statistics cover only applications to courses in England. Teach First applications and any application made directly to a provider are excluded. The DfE totals include deferred applications for 2022/23. The data in this report is applications from the opening of the application round on the 12th October to the 22nd November 2021. The last round of UCAS data in November 2020 was for applications up to 16th November. The DfE data are up to a slightly later date than the UCAS data for last year.

Data are reviewed by this blog either as overall totals or, in the case of subjects, for those recruited, those with an offer with conditions and thus pending and those applicants that have received an offer. Next month deferrals will also be included in the totals for subjects in this blog. Applicants awaiting provider decisions and those unsuccessful are not included in the subject data. It is not clear whether applicants that have withdrawn are excluded or counted as unsuccessful by the DfEl.

The DfE makes the point that direct comparison to previous UCAS data is not directly possible because UCAS would double count where an applicants applied for a course with multiple subjects such as French and German. Languages have always had this issue, as has science where there was a science category as well as categories for the separate subjects in the UCAS data. However, for the majority of subjects there should be a close read across between the UCAS data and the new DfE data.

Looking at the data at the headline levels, the DfE has managed a good start to the process. Applications overall are 8,831 compared with 7,420 for England in last year’s Table A4 from UCAS. Applications total 22,946 this November, compared with 21,710 last year – Table B4: a slightly smaller difference. However, allowing for the extra time this year compared with last year for the data point, there would seem to be little difference in either table compared with last year.

The DfE has helpfully included new categories for the overall picture, including the number of withdrawals and the number of offers declined. How that works for the Table 2.1 isn’t clear. Does the ‘declined an offer’ mean that the candidate declined all offers or could they decline an offer and accept another and would they then be double counted in the total of candidates.

Looking at candidates – a much better term than applicants that could always be confused with applications – where the DfE are using more categories than UCAS used to do, it isn’t clear whether withdrawals or rejections are included or not in the total? However, as the totals for Tables 2.1 ad 4.1 are the same, they must be included somewhere?

The breakdown of candidates by age and sex has been dropped but the totals retained. Allowing for the extra time period, the balance seems similar to previous years. The next post on this blog will consider the geographical picture and the state of play by subject.

Fewer Asian recruits to PG Teaching courses this year?

How well is the teaching profession doing at increasing the number of trainees from different ethnic groups in England? The government first started considering this issue in 1997, when Baroness Morris, then a junior Minister at the Department, hosted a conference in Stratford, East London to discuss raising involvement from minority groups, at the instigation of the then Teacher Training Agency (TTA).

Two reports in the next twelve years charted the progress being achieved. Now ethnicity data in included in the annual Initial Teacher training Census conduced by the DfE. Progress has been better with some groups as the following table for the current cohort and the previous 2019/20 cohorts makes clear.

2019/202021/22
Asian ethnicity31963608
Black ethnicity11171372
Mixed ethnicity9711103
Other ethnicity378538
Total ethnicity groups56626621
White ethnicity2649526724

Source: DfE ITT Census additional tables accessed 13th December 2021

In these three cohorts, the proportion of the White ethnicity Group has reduced from 82% to 80% of the total. Trainees of the Asian Group make up the largest ethnic group followed by the Black group that contains those of both African and Caribbean ethnicity. Over time, as society become more multi-cultural those reporting as of ‘mixed’ ethnicity are likely to grow significantly.

One significantly under-represented Group is that of ‘gypsy and travellers’ -the Group that perform worst in education attainment- with just five recorded postgraduate trainees, albeit that is better than the three of last year and the four of the year before.

It would be interesting to view this data by both geographical region and by subjects, as there are likely to be substantial differences.  Interestingly at the aggregate level on postgraduate courses, Indian, Bangladeshi and Pakistani trainee numbers fell this year. This may, in part be due to the new category of ‘not stated’ introduced this year. The number of African trainees increased, but those identified as Caribbean fell back from the high recorded last year.

The numbers recorded as either Irish or Scottish on postgraduate courses are negligible. Presumably, the fee regime makes studying to be a teacher in England unattractive to these groups of graduates.

The good news is that there are nearly 8,000 trainees in the London Region, usually a significant area for recruits from ethnic minorities. This is also an area with a high demand for teachers as TeachVac www.teachvac.co.uk regularly notes in its newsletters.

Distribution of physics trainees

The DfE’s ITT Census for 2021/22 was published yesterday – see previous post for the headline data. Over time, it will be possible to mine a great deal of information form the open-source information now provided by the DfE.

Those schools signed up to the new TeachVac service Are you overpaying to advertise your teaching posts? | John Howson (wordpress.com) for a registration fee of £100 plus VAT and  maximum annual charge of £1,000 plus VAT will be able to ask TeachVac staff to match this data with regional data for their area to help predict possible local labour shortages during 2022. So, if you are a school governor, headteacher or work for a MAT or diocese do read what is on offer and go to Teaching Jobs School Vacancies – The National Vacancy Service for Teachers and Schools (teachvac.co.uk) and hit the red tab at the top labelled New Matching Service

Taking physics as an example, the DfE data shows that the 537 trainees in the census are spread unevenly across the country.

Government RegionHEISCITTGrand Total
East Midlands292150
East of England161531
London5777134
North East12618
North West581674
South East6645111
South West371047
West Midlands341347
Yorkshire and The Humber332255
Grand Total342225567
Source TeachVac from DfE ITT census 2021   
Distribution of physics trainees

Approximately 43% of trainees are located in London or the South East, with just eight per cent located with providers in the West Midlands. This can be important because London and the South East contain a significant proportion of the country’s independent secondary schools. Such schools are more likely to advertise for a teacher of physics than do most state schools.

Many of the remaining selective schools are also in London and the South East, and they are the state schools most likely to advertise for a teacher of physics rather than a teacher of science. If just a quarter of the trainees in London and the South East opt to teach outside the state sector, this reduced the pool national to little over 500 trainees many of whom will be on school-based courses and not looking for a job on the open market.

A slightly different picture emerges for design and technology

Row LabelsHEISCITTGrand Total
East Midlands231033
East of England131629
London204363
North East4711
North West16521
South East212142
South West211132
West Midlands52961
Yorkshire and The Humber252449
Grand Total195146341
Distribution of design and technology trainees

Source TeachVac from DfE ITT census 2021

Here the North West looks like an area where recruitment will be a real challenge whereas the West midlands seems relatively, and it is only relatively, better off for teachers of this subject. However, we know nothing about specialisms with the subject.

This type of information is key to sensible recruitment planning and should play an important part in discussions about the working of the leveling up agenda in education at the level of the school.

ITT Census

The DfE’s ITT census published this morning highlight just how much the pandemic has affected recruitment. History recruited to 199% of the DfE target while physics managed just 22% of target – a new record low for the subject. https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/initial-teacher-training-trainee-number-census-2021-to-2022 The key message from the census is that easy to recruit subjects had a good year, but subjects where recruitment is challenging often continued to have issues with physics at 22% of target a matter of serious concern and design and technology at 23% of target also facing a crisis.

2013/14

2019/2020

2020/21

2021/22

Percentage of Target at census date

%

%

%

%

Mathematics

86

65

84

95

English

136

110

127

118

Modern Languages

85

64

74

71

Biology

163

189

117

Physics

42

45

22

Chemistry

67

80

105

Physical Education

138

105

135

164

Other

57

82

25

Design & Technology

45

42

75

23

History

150

115

175

199

Geography

100

118

130

86

Computing

63

75

105

69

Art & Design

136

62

132

140

Religious Education

82

94

128

99

Music

97

80

125

72

Drama

157

Business Studies

88

53

102

45

All Secondary

98

83

106

82

Inc TF

Inc TF

Inc TF

Primary

99

94

130

136

Inc TF

Inc TF

Inc TF

Looking back at a comparison of this year with 2019/2020 before the pandemic most subjects have still recruited better to target apart from those mentioned above and computing and music. There is also good news for the government in that trainee numbers in London are up on two years ago; the only region where that is the case. However, it isn’t clear how the increase breaks down between primary and secondary trainees in terms of the increase. Some 8% of secondary trainees and 5% of primary are classified as non-UK National trainees by background. Clearly, without these trainees the position in the secondary sector would have been even worse. The government will also be gratified by the overall qualification level of trainees as measured by degree class. However, once a gain there is a need to delve below the total to see if there are difference s between subjects and parts of the country. As predicted the percentage of trainees on the School Direct Salaried route fell from 6% to 3%. However, there was an increase in trainees on the apprenticeship route from one per cent of the total to three per cent. The shift from higher education to school based courses continued with higher education now accounting for just 45% of trainees. The High Potential Trainee route (ex Teach First) remained at 15%. The new name seems a little provocative for a short-service route. Looking across the board at the implications for the 2022 recruitment round it seems likely that the primary sector will be able to fill vacancies relatively easily. However, it is a different matter in the secondary sector. Schools will be awash with applications for history and PE posts but should now be thinking of how to deal with vacancies in the design and technology and for physis as well as business studies and some of the subjects classified as ‘other’ by the DfE.

Who controls teacher preparation?

Last week the House of Lords had a short debate on Initial Teacher Training. Initial Teacher Training – Hansard – UK Parliament This is an important subject that doesn’t receive enough attention. Each year the government in England trains more teachers than the total workforce of The Royal Navy and schools recruit possibly around 40,000 teachers each year including those moving between schools as well as new entrants and re-entrants.

The government has conducted what it has termed a Market Review into ITT or Initial Teacher Education as many would prefer to call it. ITT Market Review: more thoughts | John Howson (wordpress.com) Personally, I prefer the more neutral Teacher Preparation Programme (TPP) for the experience, but it is a matter of taste and semantics.

The debate in the Upper House included contributions from a former Labour secretary of State along with many other knowledgeable Peers from all sides of the House. There is concern amongst some universities including both Oxford and Cambridge about the degree of government control over the TPP curriculum and the role of the civil service. Last time government took a detailed interest in the functioning of TPP courses there was at least a Quango in the form of Teacher Training Agency that had some credibility with the teachers and academics providing the preparation programmes. Those with especially long memories will recall that I worked for the TTA for nearly a year over the change from the Major to the Blair governments in 1996-1997.

As lord Storey said in the debate “In the last decade,… there has been a steady growth of different routes into teaching, and ITT has become very fragmented. Teaching is now pretty much a graduate profession, with most teachers getting their degree before deciding which route to take. In addition to the traditional degree plus PGCE route, the balance has swung very much towards school-based initial teacher training. The traditional years spent at university, with a placement in a school for an extended teaching practice, has been replaced for many students with a year based in a school, with the school buying in the pedagogical element from a university.”

Then, there is Teach First, Teach Next, Troops to Teachers and on the horizon the iQTS discussed in the previous post on this blog.

The DfE has taken control of the admissions process alongside the certification of providers, so perhaps as the main employer of teachers it us understandable that it would want to be involved with the curriculum.

However, it does seem less than sensible to risk the meltdown of a system that handles such large numbers of would-be teachers relatively economically at a time when central government is looking to make economies. Do we want to go back to a time when the Russsell Group universities train teachers for the private sector schools both at home and overseas in parallel to a government scheme for training teachers for the state school sector?

If you are interested in the subject do read the excellent contributions to the debate using the link at the top of this post.