Continuing the look at the labour market for teachers during the first seven months of 2023, this post looks at the trend in advertised vacancies for promoted post – largely vacancies with a TLR attached to the advertised vacancy.
Promoted posts
Promoted posts in the secondary sector include the whole range of middle leadership posts from supporting roles with a TLR in mathematics and English departments to heads of subject roles in sciences and languages departments and faculties and also all the heads of department roles across all curriculum subjects; SEND and student support roles taken by teachers.
Promoted post 2022
Subject Group
Independent
State
Grand Total
ART
55
244
299
SCIENCE
173
1699
1872
ENGLISH
108
1312
1420
MATHEMATICS
110
1513
1623
LANGUAGES
141
853
994
HUMANITIES
6
165
171
COMPUTING
133
582
715
DESIGN & TECHNOLOGY
67
750
817
BUSINESS STUDIES
97
502
599
VOCATIONAL
2
109
111
RELIGIOUS EDUCATION
53
484
537
PHYSICAL EDUCATION
147
389
536
TEACHING & LEARNING
66
744
810
PSHE
32
72
104
DANCE
70
242
312
SEND
115
688
803
MUSIC
118
345
463
SOCIAL SCIENCES
68
281
349
PEFORMING ARTS
7
121
128
GEOGRAPHY
41
535
576
HISTORY
46
291
337
Grand Total
1655
11921
13576
Promoted post 2023
Subject Group
Independent
State
Grand Total
ART
39
290
329
SCIENCE
151
2131
2282
ENGLISH
96
1541
1637
MATHEMATICS
102
1706
1808
LANGUAGES
105
973
1078
HUMANITIES
7
227
234
COMPUTING
63
691
754
DESIGN & TECHNOLOGY
52
846
898
BUSINESS STUDIES
71
457
528
VOCATIONAL
86
86
RELIGIOUS EDUCATION
21
447
468
PHYSICAL EDUCATION
113
472
585
TEACHING & LEARNING
57
873
930
PSHE
7
136
143
DANCE
53
278
331
SEND
103
638
741
MUSIC
110
433
543
SOCIAL SCIENCES
47
308
355
PEFORMING ARTS
4
131
135
GEOGRAPHY
30
636
666
HISTORY
35
334
369
Grand Total
1266
13634
14900
Source: TeachVac
The advertisements for posts at this grade largely mirror the position for advertisements for classroom teaching vacancies for posts with no responsibility payments. Thus, fewer recorded advertisements in business studies and vocational courses, and also this year in religious education, and for leadership roles in special needs departments. One the other hand, there were above average increases in advertisements for physical education, the sciences and English, as well as some of the smaller subject areas such as computing and the humanities.
(This is part 3 of the review of the labour market for teachers during the first seven months of 2023 – previous parts have already appeared on this blog. The next part will discuss promoted posts)
Secondary Sector
For many years secondary schools have controlled the location of their vacancy advertising. With the rise of the multi-academy trusts there have been some recent changes in the marketplace. Some trusts have consolidated all their vacancies into a single job board similar to that in use local authorities in the primary sector. Some Trusts have gone further and arranged with one of the emerging players in the recruitment market for them to handle the vacancies across the Trust’s schools.
To date the changes in the marketplace have not significantly dented the position of the ‘tes’ as a key website for vacancies, but there is no doubt that the market is undergoing its largest shake-up since the move from print advertising to on-line advertising.
Then there is the DfE site. Despite several years of operation and cajoling by Ministers and civil servants, schools do not always routinely post their vacancies on this free site. TeachVac and others have demonstrated how an efficient free service and covering all schools can operate at a lower cost to the taxpayer than the DfE site, and provide the government with a better real-time understanding of the working of the labour market.
As the Education Select Committee is currently conducting an enquiry into the supply of teachers, it will be interesting to see whether or not they address this issue when they come to write their report, presumably sometime in the autumn.
Classroom teacher vacancies
The outcome for the first seven months of 2023 was an overall increase of seven per cent in recorded vacancies for classroom teachers.
2022 Classroom teachers only
SUBJECT GROUPING
Independent
State
Grand Total
ART
150
992
1142
SCIENCE
936
5848
6784
ENGLISH
585
4185
4770
MATHEMATICS
674
4724
5398
LANGUAGES
499
2668
3167
HUMANITIES
50
464
514
COMPUTING
239
1805
2044
DESIGN & TECHNOLOGY
225
2987
3212
BUSINESS STUDIES
362
1474
1836
VOCATIONAL
23
494
517
RELIGIOUS EDUCATION
122
1245
1367
PHYSICAL EDUCATION
287
1774
2061
TEACHING & LEARNING
30
121
151
PSHE
22
104
126
DANCE
109
576
685
SEND
96
279
375
MUSIC
120
1005
1125
SOCIAL SCIENCES
180
976
1156
PEFORMING ARTS
4
127
131
GEOGRAPHY
184
1874
2058
HISTORY
159
1179
1338
Grand Total
5056
34901
39957
2023 Classroom teachers only
SUBJECT GROUPING
Independent
State
Grand Total
ART
123
1125
1248
SCIENCE
837
6476
7313
ENGLISH
541
5076
5617
MATHEMATICS
568
5234
5802
LANGUAGES
414
3014
3428
HUMANITIES
43
645
688
COMPUTING
223
1964
2187
DESIGN & TECHNOLOGY
218
3026
3244
BUSINESS STUDIES
324
1316
1640
VOCATIONAL
13
419
432
RELIGIOUS EDUCATION
92
1338
1430
PHYSICAL EDUCATION
253
1875
2128
TEACHING & LEARNING
21
129
150
PSHE
10
128
138
DANCE
106
649
755
SEND
82
283
365
MUSIC
85
1171
1256
SOCIAL SCIENCES
152
963
1115
PEFORMING ARTS
3
144
147
GEOGRAPHY
160
2191
2351
HISTORY
142
1266
1408
Grand Total
4410
38432
42842
Difference 2023 on 2022
SUBJECT GROUPING
Independent
State
Grand Total
% change
ART
-27
133
106
9%
SCIENCE
-99
628
529
8%
ENGLISH
-44
891
847
18%
MATHEMATICS
-106
510
404
7%
LANGUAGES
-85
346
261
8%
HUMANITIES
-7
181
174
34%
COMPUTING
-16
159
143
7%
DESIGN & TECHNOLOGY
-7
39
32
1%
BUSINESS STUDIES
-38
-158
-196
-11%
VOCATIONAL
-10
-75
-85
-16%
RELIGIOUS EDUCATION
-30
93
63
5%
PHYSICAL EDUCATION
-34
101
67
3%
TEACHING & LEARNING
-9
8
-1
-1%
PSHE
-12
24
12
10%
DANCE
-3
73
70
10%
SEND
-14
4
-10
-3%
MUSIC
-35
166
131
12%
SOCIAL SCIENCES
-28
-13
-41
-4%
PEFORMING ARTS
-1
17
16
12%
GEOGRAPHY
-24
317
293
14%
HISTORY
-17
87
70
5%
Grand Total
-646
3531
2885
7%
However, the increase was neither consistent across all subjects nor uniform in those subject groupings where there was an increase. Five subject groupings recorded decreases in vacancies during the first seven months of 2023, when compared with the same period in 2022: Business studies; vocational subject not classified elsewhere; teaching and learning; Special Needs without a TLR and the social science subjects not classified elsewhere.
Business Studies and design and technology (a 1% increase) are both subjects that schools have struggled to recruit teachers for many years. Perhaps the reduction in recorded vacancies means that schools have now accepted the difficulty in recruitment and stopped advertising. No doubt that will have affected the curriculum being offered as well.
The 34% increase in vacancies classified as for humanities that may have partly been the result of concerns from pervious years about the shortage of teachers of geography; not actually an issue in 2023. However, there was also an above average increase in recorded vacancies for teachers of geography and the vacancy rate is very different for the rate for history teachers, where demand is much lower. However, for 2024, the reduction in ‘offers’ may make finding even teachers of history more of a challenge next year.
The other key subject with a significant increase in demand, as measured by vacancies advertised was English. The recorded increase in vacancies was some 18%, and was entirely as a result of more recorded vacancies from schools in the state sector.
For most of the other EBacc subject groupings, the increase was in the range of 5-10% in 2023 when compared with the same time period in 2022.
However, independent sector schools as a group recorded a lower demand, as measure by vacancies advertised, during 2023. Down from 5,056 to 4,410, a reduction of 646 vacancies advertised. As will the state sector, there was not a uniform decline and some subject that were in the list of subjects in the state sector that experienced year-on-year declines in vacancy advertising did not do so in the private sector: business studies is one such subject.
The is undoubtedly an unmet demand for secondary school teachers in a range of subjects that will not be met until either recruitment into training increases or more teachers are persuaded to return to teaching in state schools. School and trust leaders would be well advised to focus their attention on retaining staff wherever possible and by whatever means as this is often a cheap option that trying to recruit a replacement member of staff.
The primary sector during 2023 has been noticeable for a decline in advertised vacancies across England in both the private and state school sectors.
January to July each year
Primary Classroom & promoted posts
2022
Count of URN
Column Labels
Row Labels
Independent
State
Grand Total
East Midlands
53
2183
2236
East of England
214
3052
3266
London
529
3019
3548
North East
7
257
264
North West
63
2198
2261
South East
392
4663
5055
South West
106
2724
2830
West Midlands
53
2078
2131
Yorkshire & the Humber
62
2075
2137
Grand Total
1479
22249
23728
Primary Classroom & promoted posts
2023
Row Labels
Independent
State
Grand Total
East Midlands
25
1642
1667
East of England
116
2254
2370
London
316
2336
2652
North East
7
608
615
North West
39
1607
1646
South East
240
3240
3480
South West
92
2089
2181
West Midlands
50
1674
1724
Yorkshire & the Humber
34
1316
1350
Grand Total
919
16766
17685
Difference between 2022 and 2023
Row Labels
East Midlands
-28
-541
-569
East of England
-98
-798
-896
London
-213
-683
-896
North East
0
351
351
North West
-24
-591
-615
South East
-152
-1423
-1575
South West
-14
-635
-649
West Midlands
-3
-404
-407
Yorkshire & the Humber
-28
-759
-787
Grand Total
-560
-5483
-6043
Percentage difference
East Midlands
-53%
-25%
-25%
East of England
-46%
-26%
-27%
London
-40%
-23%
-25%
North East
0%
137%
133%
North West
-38%
-27%
-27%
South East
-39%
-31%
-31%
South West
-13%
-23%
-23%
West Midlands
-6%
-19%
-19%
Yorkshire & the Humber
-45%
-37%
-37%
Grand Total
-38%
-25%
-25%
Source: TeachVac
The one region where the data shows a different pattern is the North East and reasons for that difference will be explored in more detail later.
Leaving the outcome for the North East aside, the other regions all recorded declines of between 19% (West Midlands) and 37% (Yorkshire and The Humber), with the average for the England (including the North East) being a decline of 25% for all classroom teachers and promoted posts in the primary sector across England for the January to July months in 2023 when compared with the same period in 2022.
The data for the North East looks less out of line when compared over a longer period of time
North East
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
January
46
29
46
13
17
34
February
38
31
50
8
11
45
March
78
59
101
34
26
102
April
88
24
37
125
44
118
May
80
29
52
183
47
206
June
36
10
53
68
22
102
July
7
5
13
0
22
8
Total
373
187
352
431
189
615
Source: TeachVac
It may be that a change in data collection affected the 2022 data. Many of the local authorities in the North East post the vacancies in their primary schools on a regional job board. However, at this point in time the actual reason for the change must be speculation.
Leadership Vacancies
The leadership Scale comprises three grades: assistant head; deputy head and headteacher (some times written as head teacher). The first two grades are less common in the primary sector than in the secondary sector. However, with the larger number of schools in the primary sector, the number of headship vacancies each year is larger than in the secondary sector.
Primary Leadership
2022
Grade
Independent
State
Grand Total
Assistant Head
27
776
803
Deputy Head
48
891
939
Head teacher
15
1469
1484
Grand Total
90
3136
3226
2023
Grade
Independent
State
Grand Total
Assistant Head
13
586
599
Deputy Head
37
723
760
Head teacher
19
1259
1278
Grand Total
69
2568
2637
Difference
Grade
Independent
State
Grand Total
Assistant Head
-14
-190
-204
Deputy Head
-11
-168
-179
Head teacher
4
-210
-206
Grand Total
-21
-568
-589
Grade
Independent
State
Grand Total
Assistant Head
-52%
-24%
-25%
Deputy Head
-23%
-19%
-19%
Head teacher
27%
-14%
-14%
Grand Total
-23%
-18%
-18%
Source: TeachVac
As will classroom teacher vacancies, a reduction in leadership vacancies was recorded for the first seven months of 2023 when compared with the same period in 2022.
TeachVac’s data coverage of the primary sector in the private school market is not complete, so the changes here must be regarded with caution. The numbers are also small in some cells, further reducing the usefulness of the data.
Coverage of the state-funded primary school sector by TeachVac has been more comprehensive. The largest fall is in the assistant headship grade. This is not unexpected in a sector that is facing falling rolls. Although the use of the assistant head grade has increased in recent years in the primary sector, it is still less common to see such vacancies than for deputy head or headteacher posts.
London and the South East remain the two regions where assistant headteacher vacancies are most commonly to be found. This year, these two regions accounted for 220 or the 586 state-sector assistant headteacher vacancies recorded between January and July 2023 compared with 257 of the 776 vacancies at this grade recorded in the first seven months of 2022.
The decline in headteacher vacancies recorded in 2023 may be partly down to a reduction in re-advertisements of headteacher vacancies in 2023. As many re-advertisements for these posts only appear in September, the exact position is not certain at this point in the year. However, the decline in headteacher advertisements in the first seven months of 2023, when compared with the same period in 2022, was less than that recorded in the other two leadership grades for posts in the primary sector.
On the basis of this data, is primary school teaching a good choice of career at the present moment in time? For those required to pay full tuition fees to train as a teacher, there must be a question mark about the accumulation of an increased debt at the end of the training course and the risk of not finding a teaching post. There are vacancies, but probably not enough to provide a guarantee of a teaching post for every trainee and returner.
Additionally, the implications of the two-year Early Career Framework may make it more likely that schools will either recruit returners over new entrants to the profession or use schemes such as the Graduate Apprenticeship Scheme to train their own teachers.
Further posts will explore the secondary sector data in more detail.
The Labour Market for Teachers in England – January to July 2023 (part one) overview
The months between January and July each year witness the majority of the advertisements for teachers each year. This is because the labour market is skewed towards appointments for the start of the school-year in September.
In a normal year, not affected by factors such as a pandemic, around three quarters to 80% of vacancies are advertised during the first seven months of the year, with the largest number of advertisements being placed during the three months between March and May; with the peak usually occurring some weeks after the Easter holidays.
TeachVac has been recording vacancies advertised by schools through their websites since 2014. The decade can be separated out into three phases; from 2014 to 2019; 2020 and 2021, the covid years, and 2022 and 2023. The last two years have seen a significant change in the volume of vacancies advertised. This trend will be discussed in more detail later.
The demand for teachers depends upon a number of different factors, and that demand can be satisfied in a number of different ways. The most important factor is the school population. Increasing pupil numbers require more teachers, unless teaching groups are to increase in size. Obviously, falling rolls mean less demand, and in extreme cases can even lead to teacher redundancies.
The level of funding of schools also plays a part. Increased resources for schools can result in an increased demand for teaching staff; restrictions on funding can reduce demand for replacements when staff leave. Within the funding envelope, the cost of the salary bill can have a significant bearing on staffing levels. For instance, an under-funded pay settlement can reduce demand for staff as more funds are spent on paying the existing staffing complement. For the private school sector, the demand for places and the payment of fees has the same effect. More demand for places means there is likely to be a demand for more teachers
The third key factor affecting the level of advertisements is the state of the market. A good supply of teachers means most vacancies will be filled at first advertisement or event these days without an advertisement at all. However, if there is a challenging labour market, perhaps because of a shortage of either new entrants or returners, or an increase in departures from teaching in schools in England, then these factors can result in an increase in advertisements, as vacancies not filled are re-advertised. This may be one the factors behind the increase in vacancies recorded in 2022, because in many secondary subjects the numbers entering the profession from training were less than required by the DfE’s Teacher Supply Model.
So, what of the first seven months of 2023? The tables below show the record of vacancies as measured by advertisements for schools in England
2022
Primary
Secondary
Overall
Indep
State
Total
Indep
State
Total
Total
Classroom
1191
17449
18640
5056
34901
39957
58597
Promoted post
198
1664
1862
1655
11921
13576
15438
Assistant Head
27
776
803
82
1368
1450
2253
Deputy head
48
891
939
123
762
885
1824
Head teacher
15
1469
1484
32
365
397
1881
Grand Total
1479
22249
23728
6948
49317
56265
79993
2023
Primary
Secondary
Overall
Indep
State
Total
Indep
State
Total
Total
Classroom
796
15409
16205
4410
38432
42842
59047
Promoted post
123
1357
1480
1266
13634
14900
16380
Assistant Head
13
586
599
67
1346
1413
2012
Deputy head
37
723
760
95
767
862
1622
Head teacher
19
1259
1278
29
358
387
1665
Grand Total
988
19334
20322
5867
54537
60404
80726
Primary
Secondary
Overall
Indep
State
Total
Indep
State
Total
Total
Change 2023 on 2022
-491
-2915
-3406
-1081
5220
4139
733
% change
-33%
-13%
-14%
-16%
11%
7%
1%
Source: TeachVac
Source: TeachVac
The key feature to note is that there was little change between 2022 and 2023. Overall, the number of vacancies, as measured by advertisements, increased by one per cent in 2023 when compared with 2022. This was an overall increase of 733 advertisements from 79,993 to 80726.
However, the overall total hides two very different picture for the different sectors. Advertisements for teachers and school leaders in the primary sector fell from 23,728 in the first seven months of 2022 to20,322 in the same period of 2023: a fall of 14%.
The fall in the primary sector affected vacancies at all levels except for headteachers in the independent sector, where a small increase in advertisements was recorded in 2023 when compared with 2022.
Advertised vacancies for classroom teachers declined from 18,640 in 2022 to 16,205 in 2023, with both the state and independent school sectors recording a fall in advertisements.
In the secondary sector, the position was very different. Overall, the recorded number of advertisements increased from 56,265 in 2022 to 60,404 in the first seven months of 2023. Within the secondary sector, the increase was not universal. The independent school sector recorded a fall in advertisements for most posts, whereas state sector secondary schools recorded an increase for classroom teachers and promoted posts, but little change in the number of vacancies for leadership posts.
Further posts will explore the different categories in more detail.
The numbers in some shortage subjects, such as physics, (leaving aside 2020/21 as possibly affected by the covid pandemic) only represent a small fraction of the total candidates on the Assessment Only route to QTS: around two per cent in 2021/22. Computing candidate numbers were even lower in 2021/22, at just 20 candidates.
Around 40% of the candidates on this route were working to become qualified teachers while in the primary sector, so we do not know the range of subjects that they might contribute expertise to when they have obtained QTS.
In the secondary sector, only English and mathematics were subjects with candidate numbers in three figures, although physical education – hardly a shortage subject – just missed reaching 100 candidates with a total of 98.
The government web site on teaching says that
You can take the assessment only route to QTS if you already meet the standards for qualified teacher status, so do not need any further training.
Instead, you will undertake a series of assessments. This may include lesson observations, providing a portfolio of evidence to show you meet the teachers’ standards, or written assessments. This will vary by your provider.
GCSEs at grade 4 (C) or above in English and maths (and science if you want to teach primary)
Specific entry criteria may vary by teacher training provider.
There are nearly 100 providers of the Assessment Only route certification, although only four are open to non-UK citizens. Based upon the data in the table, some providers must receive very small numbers of registrations each year. Is there a case for rationalisation to provide a smaller number of providers in each region to allow for larger cohorts?
The data provided by the DfE in the teacher profiles is very much at the headline level and has made direct comparisons with previous year more of a challenge except where the DfE has recalculated the data for earlier years. This blog looks at employment percentages by ethnic group and region of training.
The change in methodology introduced by the DfE in calculating completion rates for postgraduate students in ITT in 2021/22 has made a difference to the percentages of each ethnic grouping employed in state-funded schools. For comments on last year’s data under the previous methodology please see Disturbing profile data on new teachers | John Howson (wordpress.com)
Although the difference between the groups is smaller than under the previous methodology, there are still differences. The most notable is between the Asian Group and the White and Black groups; a difference of some 7% points.
Postgraduate trainee qualified teacher status and employment outcomes by ethnic group
The ‘unknown’ grouping is the only one where under the new methodology the 2021/22 percentage is higher than the percentage in 2017/18. The increase for this grouping may be down to the larger numbers in the latest survey recorded as ‘unknown’.
Again, the lack of a breakdown between primary trainees, where trainees may have found that jobs were more difficult to come by, and secondary sector trainees, where in most subjects the jobs advertised exceeded trainee numbers, makes it difficult to say much more about the overall outcomes for the sector. However, a percentage of the increases in employment percentages between 2020/21 and 2021/22 can be put down to the larger increase in secondary teacher vacancies between the two years.
There is little difference in employment outcomes for other groups, with women having a slightly higher percentage employed in state-funded schools than men, and older trainees a slightly high percentage than younger trainees.
Postgraduate trainee outcomes by region for the 2021/22 academic year
Total trainees
Percentage awarded QTS
Percentage of those awarded QTS teaching in a state-funded school
London and the Home Counties were the regions where the highest percentages of those awarded QTS were likely to be employed in a state-funded school. This is despite the fact that these areas also contain the largest percentage of private schools.
Some of the rationale for reducing trainee numbers in the north of England is obvious from the employment outcomes. Assuming that trainees wish to join the state sector, the fact that only two thirds of those with QTS in both the North East and North West regions were in employment does suggest that there was a question about the distribution of places across the country. The reduction of places in the South West after the recent review, and especially in Devon, does seem harder to explain from just the employment statics alone.
Even with these caveats, there are some interesting issues for policymakers to ponder
Provisional employment rates were 81% for those on a school-led route compared to 69% for those on a Higher Education Institution (HEI) route, with the highest rates seen for those on the High Potential ITT (90%), School Direct Salaried (84%), and Postgraduate Teaching Apprenticeship (83%) routes These three routes have had the three highest employment rates since the Postgraduate Teaching Apprenticeship was introduced in 2018/19, with High Potential ITT having the highest employment rate every year since 2017/18 (joint highest in 2019/20).
Salaried routes seem to do better in terms of immediate employment in teaching. However, does employment in this context only mean employment in a state-funded schools and not a sixth form college, other further education setting or an independent school?
As elsewhere it states that ‘We provisionally estimate that within sixteen months of the end of the 2021/22 academic year, 22,276 postgraduate trainees awarded QTS in 2021/22 will be employed as a teacher in a state-funded school in England, up from 21,889 in 2020/21. This represents 75% of postgraduate trainees awarded QTS, reversing a downward trend from 80% in 2017/18 to 73% in 2020/21,’ it might be sensible to infer that the data on employment only refers to employment in state-funded schools.
It seems logical that those employed in a state-funded school during training would remain there. However, higher education providers also offer many places in subjects such as physics where competition from the private school sector for teachers might well mean that the percentage entering the state-funded school sector would be lower, even if those working in the further education sector are discounted.
The headline statistics don’t break the data down into trainees on primary and secondary sector courses. As a result, it isn’t possible from the headlines to understand why both the percentage awarded QTS dropped to 93% (methodology changes may have been part of the cause) and ‘of these postgraduate trainees with course outcomes, 29,511 were awarded qualified teacher status (QTS), down from 30,101 in 2020/21. This decrease follows year-on-year increases from 2017/18.’
Trainee qualified teacher status and employment outcomes by subject’
Perhaps it is not surprising that only just over half of trainees in classics were working in state-funded schools. For physical education and primary, the low percentages may relate more to a lack of opportunity than to a desire not to work in a state-funded school.
More worrying is the ranking of subjects by the percentage awarded QTS
Subjects with significant percentages of trainees in higher education have some of the highest completion rate, so higher education per se cannot be faulted for having an overall lower rate of employment than school-based provision.
However, if the government wants to keep trainees in the state-school system, offering salaried courses base din schools seems like a good idea. Wasn’t that what the School Direct salaried route was designed to do? As I pointed out in an earlier blog, the numbers on employment-based routes are now fewer than in the latter years of the last Labour government. Possibly time for a rethink?
The 2022 recruitment round was the worst for many years, and while some subjects have recovered from the disastrous offer levels of last year, the arts subjects have continued their downward trend in offers in most cases. This is grim news for schools wanting to recruit for September 2024, as the data in the table below makes clear.
Subjects where offers are below the July 2022 and July 2021 levels
Art
Religious Education
Physical Education
Music
History
Subjects where offers are above the July 2022 abut below July 2021 levels
Languages
Mathematics
Computing
Chemistry
Business Studies
Subjects where offers are above the July 2022 and July 2021 levels
Physics
Geography
English
Design & Technology
Biology
Subjects where offers are below the July 2022 levels
Drama
Classics
‘Other’ subjects
Subjects in italics are those where it seems likely that the 2023 target will not be met even if ‘offers’ are better this year.
Both art and music are subjects where offers are down this year compared with 2022. In the case of art from 910 in July 2021 to just 478 this July. For music, the fall during the same period has been from 410 offers to just 224 offers this July. Drama is down from 364 offers last July to 275 this July. Offers at this level, even if all candidates turn up, will not produce enough trainees to meet the needs of schools next year.
The good news, such as it appears to be, is in subjects such as English, languages (other than classics) and geography. These are subjects where the level of applications has been large enough to allow offer levels to mean that the target should be met for the year.
However, a word of warning. Recruited numbers in four regions, including both London and the South East are below the number recorded in July 2022. Overall ‘recruited’ total is 3,395 down on July 2022, of 3,911. Also, those with ‘conditions pending’ are down by 124 on last year, creating a net loss across these two categories. There must, therefore be some uncertainty about the outcome of the recruitment round in terms of trainee numbers that will turn up in September.
Numbers of applicants in the youngest age categories are still below those for July 2022, whereas applications from candidates in the older age groupings continue to be above the levels seen in 2022.
The number of rejected applications has increased from 31,124 in July 2022 to 52,350 in July 2023. Lat year that represented 31.5% of applications. This July, it represented 40% of applications. Whether or not this increase is related to the origins of the applications is impossible to tell from the data. However, it would not surprise me if many of those rejected were in the ‘rest of the world’ category.
Barring any last-minute change next month, and with many school-based schemes not actively recruiting now, it seems likely that 2024 with be another grim year for schools recruiting teachers, especially, but not exclusively in some of the art subjects that the independent sector values more highly that the government seems to do.
Now that the summer term has ended it’s time to take our annual look at classroom teacher turnover by level of free school meals (FSM) in schools. Last year, in 2022, this blog looked at turnover in one shire county Teacher vacancies and Free School Meals | John Howson (wordpress.com) so, I thought I would return to look at the same county for the period 1st January 2023 to 21st July 2023. TeachVac allows that real time look at what is happening.
Last year the outcome of the research was:
January to July 2022
FSM percentage
Number of Schools
Recorded vacancies
Vacancies per school
0-9.9%
18
359
20.0
10-20%
14
387
27.6
20%+
6
281
46.0
Source: TeachVac
For January to July 2023
FSM percentage
Number of Schools
Recorded vacancies
Vacancies per school
0-9.9%
12
213
17.75
10-20%
19
474
25.00
20%+
9
221
24.50
Source: TeachVac
This is recognized to be a very crude measure, partly because schools are of different sizes and also because of the fact that new schools may be appointing staff for the first time. What, however, is interesting is the fact that the cost of living crisis, even in a shire county in the south of England, may have resulted in a decrease in schools in the group of schools with the lowest FSM percentages. The remaining schools in this group has seen the recorded vacancies per school fall compared with the same period in 2022.
There has also been a significant fall in vacancies per school among the highest group, where vacancies per school have nearly halved. Is this down to better vacancy management and cost control as schools now recognize that for some subjects it is pointless just repeatedly advertising for a teacher? Has the profile of this group of schools also changed, as three more schools have joined the group?
If the 14-18 school is removed from the table, the vacancy per school for the 20%+ FSM group increases to 26.9 this year. Still a big improvement on 2022, but maintaining the profile of higher percentage of FSM pupil school experiencing more vacancies and either higher turnover or more difficulties in filling posts than schools with lower FSM percentages.
Many of the schools within the shire county boundary are in one large local MAT that now takes recruitment seriously, so it may well be that the decrease in vacancies recorded, from 1,027 to 908, is as a result of better vacancy management, especially since pupil numbers have been on the increase over the two years.
Across all the schools the most advertised subjects were:
Science 146 recorded advertisements
Mathematics 115 recorded advertisements
Design & Technology 113 recorded advertisements – including one school with 22 recorded advertisements in this subject
English 104 recorded advertisements
In the humanities, there were 56 recorded advertisements for teachers of geography, but only 21 for teachers of history. 15 schools had no recorded advertisement for a teacher of history.
So, in 2023 the link between FSM and teacher turnover is weaker in this geographical area than it was in 2022. This seems to be down to a combination of increased percentages of FSM, as the cost of living crisis increases, and perhaps a better handle on recruitment in one of the large MATs. How to disseminate the message across all schools that vacancy management matters is an interesting question? Is there a role for the Schools’ Forum or the regional Director?
Ethnic minority Head teachers (including white minorities)
2015/2016
1,473
2016/2017
1,480
2017/2018
1,512
2018/2019
1,531
2019/2020
1,530
2020/2021
1,532
2021/2022
1,564
2022/2023
1,627
Source Annual School Workforce Census
Despite the increase of 63 in the total number of these head teachers between November 2021 and November 2022, and including all minority groups not classified as ‘White British’ in the total, there were apparently only 1,627 head teachers self-identified as from minority backgrounds in November 2022. This an increase of only around 10%, or just 154 additional head teachers from minority backgrounds, over the eight years represented in the table. There may be more, because the number that refused to answer the question increased from 117 to 192 during the same period.
During the same period, the total of ‘White’ head teachers only changed from 19,520 in November 2019 to 19,104 in November 2022.
There is better news on the ITT front, where ITT undergraduate entrants from minority ethnic groups increased from 12% to 17% of the total intake between 2019/2020 and 2022/2023. For those on postgraduate courses, the increase in the percentage was from 19% to 22% during the same period. However, I suspect that the distribution was skewed towards certain parts of the country. Sadly, we don’t easily have access to that data.
The discussion at the Select Committee last Tuesday about discrimination and unconscious bias meaning that more ethnic minority applicants were not offered places mirrored the finding from the two studies that I conducted for the then National College. Progress is being made, but slowly. My research also found that ethnic minority applicants fared better when there were fewer applicants to select from, as there was in most subjects last year. What will happen if the economy slows and the number of applicants for ITT increases once again?
Given that boys from an African Caribbean background do relatively poorly in our schooling system, it would also be interesting to know whether there is more of a challenge recruiting men form minority backgrounds than there is recruiting women and whether certain subjects struggle more than others? How many physics ITT recruits came for ethnic minority backgrounds in each of the last five years, and were they recruited mainly from a small number of courses. If they aren’t in the pipeline of learning then they won’t be there to become teachers of future generations.
For over a quarter of a century we have been urging women into science, engineering and other STEM subjects. Should we now look to do the same with other under-represented groups. As a large employer of graduates, does teaching have a responsibility to not just recruit graduates but also to influence the pipeline. After all that pipeline starts in schools.
John Howson 