How many schools will close?

I came across this interesting article by Richard Tilley BIRTH RATES: A COMPLEX, BRUTAL REALITY In the article Richard considers the realities for schools of both the current reduction in pupil numbers currently working its way through the school system, and the longer-term effects of declining family sizes on school populations.

Find more pupils. This is, I guess, what any headteacher and Board of governors will want to do in a free market, where pupils equal cash. This is as a result of the national funding formula that is geared to the market principles of rewarding success through pupil numbers and failure to recruit enough pupils leads to budget deficits, and eventual school closure.

Now that’s all very well as a model for shops selling items that are optional to buy, and even what food we buy is our choice within our financial constraints.

Anyway, is state schooling such a free market good? Alternatively, is it a service provided by the State that should be available to everyone that wants to access it. Assuming the latter, and that is what, broadly speaking, the State has offered parents since 1870, although in different forms at different times since then. The question becomes one of how do ensure a reasonable distribution of schools, especially in rural areas, and in some of our older estates with ageing populations?

Personally, I think that the present National Funding Formula rewards good marketing by schools by paying a bounty for pupils recruited. However, the alternative, you send your child to the nearest school regardless of how effective it is at outcomes, may be equally unacceptable. That is, unless some organisation, and I don’t mean ofsted, with its infrequent visits and no follow up, but a MAT, diocese or local authority takes control of ensuring the quality of education.

The questions with falling school rolls, is how can these disparate groups manage to plan the distribution of schools, and especially primary schools, coherently across a local area where several different groups may have a stake in some of the schools? Do we need planning, or do we leave it to market forces?

In my view, the local State, as corporate parent, should take the lead in answering this question, even though it will produce challenging outcomes. I lived through the re-organsiation of schools in Haringey in the late 1970s, when rolls were falling dramatically, and it wasn’t a pleasant experience for either officers or politicians. Indeed, I wonder what Jeremy Corbyn’s memories of that period are, when he was a councillor and not yet an MP?

To clarify my thoughts about this topic, in a way that a blog of this length cannot, I have drafted a play ‘Heading off’ about the life of a primary school over the course of year that ends up with the school being closed through no fault of its own. Email me if you would like a copy of the script at dataforeduction@gmail.com

London secondary school to close this summer

Falling rolls have caused the closure of a secondary school in South London. Despite much of the country still battling with increasing pupil numbers across the secondary school sector, a London secondary school has announced its closure at the end of the summer term.

The statement on the school’s website states that;

The Southwark Diocesan Board of Education, Multi Academy Trust (SDBE MAT)

Due to the significant and ongoing challenges with falling pupil and application numbers in schools across London Local Authorities and the London Borough of Lambeth, and after considerable review subject to a listening period, it has been proposed to close The Archbishop Tenison’s Secondary School, Oval by the end of the academic year (August 2023).  

We understand the importance of continuing education for the students impacted by this decision and are working closely with parents, the school and colleagues at Lambeth Council, who are in the process of providing offer details for pupil placements in the academic year 2023-2024.

This closure will not be the last school closure, and raises important questions, including how soon after the unified admissions date for September entry should any closure be announced? Indeed, should closures be announced ahead of the general admissions date, and a hard date set by the DfE beyond which no state school will close for the following school-year and will be supported, if necessary, by special funding?

There are always issues with examination years and at least in this case:

The priority is for the current year 10 to have as minimal amount of disruption as they move into their final year of GCSEs as possible. The year 10’s will move as a bulk class to St Gabriel’s College which will match the curriculum and recruit some key staff from ATS to support the transition. Year 10 families are entitled to parental choice and to select a different school but we would encourage the move to St Gabriel’s College as it will support the GCSE offer that young people are already studying.

This suggests that planning had been taking place in the background. Fortunately, as this is London, there should be minimal extra transport costs as TfL picks up that bill across the capital.

However, what is the role of The Regional School commissions – this is an academy? The local authority – that much maligned democratically elected body that it seems still plays an important part in state education – and in this case the diocese?

The Diocesan Board of Education has issued a statement including the following;

As one of the longest established schools in London with a rich history of provision in Lambeth, Archbishop Tenison’s leaves behind a great legacy of achievements. Our hope is that students will go on to receive a continued, strong, and positive local education in a ‘good’ OFSTED school.

 The Rt Revd Dr Rosemarie Mallett, Bishop of Croydon and Chair of the Board of Education said: “We hope that every family, every child and every staff member will know that we are praying for them, the situation and for flourishing going forward into the future.”

I am not sure if there is a word missing before ‘flourishing’, but perhaps this is an example of a more secular society shunning church schools. However, it may be the fate of an 11-16 school rated inadequate by Ofsted at their last visit that has succumbed to market forces and been squeezed out of existence by the workings of parental choice in an area with multiple alternative choice of schools and a good transport network.

The London Evening Standard newspaper, where I picked up this story predict that

In an attempt to avoid school closures, Lambeth Council is reducing places at a number of primary schools in the borough from next year and intending to merge eight schools. But the council has limited control over what secondary schools in the borough do, as most are academies like Archbishop Tenison’s and outside of local authority control.

This is, therefore, a warning sign for the DfE that some sensible planning needs to be put in place in a system where many but not all schools are academies and some rationalisation of the system will be needed because of falling rolls and budget deficits as schools struggle to stay open and spend ever more on marketing to attract a declining number of pupils.

Either make all schools academies, and control the distribution of schools at the DfE or give local authorities planning control over all admissions and a say over the number and distribution of schools to meet local needs. Inaction is not an option, especially in urban areas with a plethora of small unitary authorities whatever their actual titles.

Archbishop Tenison’s School – Home (tenisons.com)

South London school forced to shut because it doesn’t have enough pupils (msn.com)