TeachVac’s index shows depth of teacher recruitment crisis

Posted on June 4, 2023 by John Howson

How bad is the recruitment crisis in teaching? That is the question everyone is asking. This blog has suggested that the situation is dire. But what data do we have to support such a position? An index created by TeachVac eight years ago looks at the number of trainees in the DfE census each year that might be looking for a teaching post. Some trainees, such as Teach First and other salaried trainees can be assumed to be already in the classroom, and so not job hunting for the September after the census date. In addition, some trainees in the census either won’t finish the course or will opt to stay in higher education or indeed find a teaching post overseas or even a job outside of teaching.

The number that is left has been called the ‘free pool’ available for teaching posts across state and private schools and sixth form colleges. How quickly that pool is reduced by the number of vacancies demonstrates the balance between supply and demand in the teacher labour market.

When recruitment into ITT is good, the depletion of the ‘pool’ is slower than when recruitment misses the targets, assuming no change in demand. Add increasing pupil numbers and funding that allows for a constant class size in the face of increasing pupil numbers, and demand for teachers will increase. Decreasing pupil numbers, as in the primary sector at present, will reduce the demand for teachers when funding is so closely driven by pupil numbers.

What does the change in the index look like between the first week in June in 2021 and 2023 that is the first measurement point aft the 31^st May resignation date.

Subject	2021	2022	2023
History	75	54	33
PE	72	47	31
Art	63	34	-22
Maths	42	-13	-74
English	53	-20	-102
All Sciences	48	-40	-113
Music	36	-48	-128
RE	41	-60	-151
Languages	52	-58	-129
Computing	20	-79	-216
Geography	57	-91	-96
Business Studies	-38	-215	-337
D&T	-17	-409	-278

Source: TeachVac

Apart from geography, where recruitment into ITT has improved somewhat, and design and technology where schools seem finally to have accepted that advertising vacancies is a waste of money, in all other subjects there has been a significant worsening of the index. In June 2021, all subjects bar business studies and design and technology were still in positive territory. This week, only PE and history are still positive, and both at less than half their levels of 2021. With reduced targets for 2023 in these two subjects, this time next year they may well also be in negative territory on the index.

The index matters, because it provides a useful indicator for schools that are still recruiting for September or will need to recruit for January 2024. Returning teachers and teachers switching schools will be the main source of supply for these vacancies, along with any teachers that can be attracted from overseas. The need for overseas teachers may explain the enthusiasm for this route within the DfE. Whether the Minister responsible for migration is as keen is another matter that need not concern us here.

Physics looks like a success story

Posted on May 22, 2023 by John Howson

This morning the DfE published the data on applications for postgraduate ITT courses up to the 15^th May 2023. As ever, the key table at this time of year is the number of offers that have been made to candidates. The good news is that the 469 offers in physics represents the highest number in May since 2015/16, albeit the total is only nine above that in May 2021. Still, we must celebrate good news where it is to be found. However, the 469 offers still means that the target for the year will likely be missed by a long way unless there is an influx of new graduates over the next three months wanting to train as a teacher of physics.

Elsewhere, design and technology as a subject is also doing well compared with the dreadful lows of recent years. Mathematics, geography computing, chemistry and modern languages are all subjects that have bounced back from last year’s incredibly low levels, but have yet to recover to pre-pandemic levels of offer for this point in the recruitment cycle.

There is less good news in the arts, with art, religious education, music and history recording their worst offer levels for a decade. Business Studies is also recording a low level of offers. Drama, classics and the catch-all of ‘other’ are also recording lower levels of offer than last year.

Both physical education and history that have provided a buffer of new entrants through over-recruitment in the past seem less likely to do so this year. Indeed, history with only 721 offers – the lowest number of offers in May since before 2013/14 – might end up being classified as a shortage subject for the first time in recorded memory.

Applications for primary courses remain subdued with 33,392 applications compared with 35,401 in May 2022. Overall, candidate numbers were 32,481 this May, compared with 28,977 in May 2022. On the face of it, this is also good news. However, ‘Rest of the world’ applications are up from 2,310 in May 2022 to 5,781 this May and those from the EEA from 411 to 485. The 3,545 extra applications from these two areas outside of the United Kingdom may account for all the 3,500 additional applications this May compared with May 2022. Certainly, there are fewer applications from the London area this year. However, there are more applications across most of the north of England and the Midlands.

Young new graduates are still not being attracted to teaching in the same numbers as previously. Applications from those age 21 or under are still lower than in May 2022, as are applications form those age 22. It is not until the 25-29 age-group that the upturn in applications becomes apparent. The decline in applications for primary courses may be reflected in this trend to fewer young applicants to teaching.

Perhaps related to the geographical distribution of applications is the increase in rejections; up from 22,136 in May 2022 to 33,580 in May 2023. Numbers actually ‘recruited’ have fallen from 1,519 to 1,102 this May. However, perhaps because of the many bank holidays, the number of applications awaiting provider decisions has increased sharply. Next month should provide a clearer picture about the trend in ‘offers’ for September 2023.

Despite the limited good news in some subjects this recruitment round looks as if it will be another one where targets are missed and schools recruiting for September 2024 will again face a challenging labour market unless the STRB report and the rumour of a 6.5% pay award boosts recruitment over the next three months.

Bit late for ITT targets

Posted on April 27, 2023 by John Howson

The DfE has finally published the ITT targets for courses starting this autumn. Postgraduate initial teacher training targets: 2023 to 2024 – GOV.UK (www.gov.uk) In addition, they have also supplied details of the Teacher Supply Model that allows the workings behind the calculation of the targets to be discussed. This is a welcome return to open government after a few years of limited information on the thinking behind the numbers.

Two points arise from the announcement. Firstly, it is incredibly late in the recruitment round. For most subjects that fact won’t matter because the targets aren’t going to be met. But what will happen in Classics and physical education where there are currently more offers than places in the target? Will potential trainees have their offers withdrawn? Will providers recruit over target, and will there be any consequences for doing so? Will the DfE look at overall recruitment by a provider rather than on a subject-by-subject basis?

The DfE’s decision may well influence how providers approach the business of making offers in future rounds. Historically, these targets were issued in the autumn so that providers knew their allocations before they had started to make many offers. Such an approach is much more sensible than announcing the target after Easter, more than half-way through the recruitment cycle. In the past, there were also indicative targets for future years. This helped providers manage their workforce planning.

The more alarming feature of these targets is the addition of the under-recruitment from earlier rounds. I have addressed this issue before. Schools do not start each new year sending children home because they couldn’t recruit enough teachers. They botch, by recruiting those teachers that they can, and adjusting the timetable and the underlying curriculum to fit the staff they have recruited. There are as a result not the vacancies there were in the training cycle.

Suppose there was an unexpected economic slowdown because of US bank failures and teaching suddenly recruited to these new targets? Would these additional trainees find jobs in 2024. The answer is we don’t know because the demands on school funding, especially for staff costs are not yet known, but it would seem unlikely. So, if a school has employed a biologist to teach physics and were offered a physics teacher for 2024 would they sack the biology teacher? Or let the physics teacher wait for an opening to arise?

Adding unfilled places to future targets has been tried in the past, and didn’t work. I am surprised to see it being used again this year.

As a result of the increase in targets in many secondary subjects – and it isn’t clear whether these targets include Teach First numbers or not – the April offer numbers represent only a small fraction of the DfE’s target number in many subjects, as the data in the table reveals.

Subject	Offers as a % of target
Business Studies	12
Others	12
Physics	13
Design & Technology	14
Computing	20
Music	20
Modern Languages	24
Religious Education	27
Total	33
Geography	35
Art & Design	36
Chemistry	39
Mathematics	41
English	42
Biology	46
Drama	65
History	80
Physical Education	170
Classics	192

Source: TeachVac www.teachvac.co.uk

History and drama may well meet their targets, but all other subjects probably won’t. Will the DfE add any shortfall on these targets onto those for next year, making the totals even higher and harder to achieve?

Finally, how will these target numbers play out with the newly accredited providers? Are the institutions going to take the extra numbers or might the loss of some providers be a matter for regret?

Mixed news on ITT applications

Posted on February 27, 2023 by John Howson

At a first glance, the data on postgraduate ITT applications and acceptances for February 2023, released this morning by the DfE, looks like good news. Overall applications are up from 51,745 in February 2022 to 56,704 this February, and applicant numbers are up from 19,933 to 21,208 for the same dates in 2022 and 2023.

However, it is important to look behind these headline numbers at two other facts. Firstly, there is a sharp difference in the behaviour of candidates by age groups. There are fewer candidates under the age of 29 this year when compared with last February. The key undergraduate group of age ‘21 and under’ are shown as 3,601 this February, whereas it was 3,778 in February 2022. However, the number of candidates in the 30 to 35 age grouping is up from 2,044 last February to 2,565 in February 2023.

The second point to note is the geographic distribution of candidates. Those from the London region are down from 3,231 to 2,885, whereas those shown as from the ‘rest of the world’ have increased from 1,427 in February 2022 to 3,524 this February. The overall increase in candidates is 1,275 (from 19,933 to 21,208) but the increase from the ‘Rest of the World’ is 2,097 (from 1,427 to 3,524).

The effect of this change in the location of candidates can be seen in the total applications by phase and subject. Applications for primary phase courses have remained constant at 23,355 compared with 23,967 in February 2022. For the secondary phase, applications have increased from 27,134 to 32,014. However, not all subjects have benefitted from more applications. Art and design; Classics; drama; history; music; physical education and religious education are all showing fewer applications this February than in February 2022.

The good news is that design and technology and physics have recorded more offers than last year. In the case of design and technology, offer levels are the best for February since February 2017. Modern Languages; geography; English; chemistry, biology and business studies have also recorded better ‘offer’ levels than last February. However, numbers are not yet sufficient to be confident to be assured that overall targets will be reached by the end of the recruitment round and the high level of applicants from overseas must be a matter for consideration. A breakdown of overseas versus home applicants by subject would be helpful.

Overall, fewer candidates have been recruited, (458 against 572) and fewer have offers with conditions pending, (9,827 compared to 10,503). Both the number of candidates rejected and withdrawn are above the February 2022 numbers.

The has been an increase in applicants recorded as ‘male’ from 5,559 to 6,704, whereas applications from ‘females’ have reduced from 14,402 to 14,289.

The question is whether we are seeing a loss of young UK- based female applicants to teaching and their being replaced by older males domiciled outside the United Kingdom. Teaching is increasingly a global profession, and QTS from the DfE may be seen as a valuable qualification. However, the question must be asked whether this trend will solve the teacher supply crisis in England?

Is your school using TeachVac?

Posted on January 13, 2023 by John Howson

Created eight years ago, TeachVac www.teachvac.co.uk has already matched nearly 4,000 teaching posts so far in 2023 with teachers and other interested in filling these jobs.

After eight years of being a free service TeachVac now charges secondary schools less than £10 per week -£500 per year plus VAT – for matching all their teaching posts for a year with its ever growing database of new and experienced teachers and recruitment companies. Primary schools pay £75 per year and can be free to academy trusts and other groups of schools that sign-on together with at least one secondary school.

Schools can sign up on the website – use the button to start the registration process or email enquiries@teachvac.co.uk and the staff will answer any queries about the service.

As TeachVac has traditionally had more jobs that the DfE site, it is a better place for jobseekers to register to be sent the links to jobs that meet with their specifications and a few that they might not have thought about. New registrations are being added to the list of those matched with vacancies every day.

With 75% of the teaching posts in 2023 posted by schools in or around London, schools in London, the south East and East of England should be at the front of the queue in signing up to TeachVac. Can you afford to miss out on access to the jobseekers in TeachVac’s database that receive relevant new jobs every afternoon. www.teachvac.co.uk

As an example, those teachers looking for a maths teacher post in North London will have received details of 14 different vacancies over the past two days from TeachVac. If your school isn’t using TeachVac then your vacancy won’t have been one of these sent to TeachVac’s users, if you posted one.

TeachVac is looking to use the income from schools to expand into offering a similar service for non-teaching posts and if enough schools sign-up the additional cost would be minimal. In the school-term, where schools offer a visa service for overseas applicants we will be introducing that fact into the matching service shortly.

TeachVac’s users are loyal, with 75% of all registered users still receiving daily matches,. This allows teachers considering a move or looking for promotion to monitor the job market in the area where they are interested in working. Feedback tells us teachers used TeachVac to secure their job.

However, there are shortages of teachers in some subjects and TeachVac acknowledges that fact. But by not using the TeachVac platform for less than £10 per week schools can miss out on TeachVac sending their job details to those that are registered with TeachVac. Is it worth the risk for just £10 per week?

Tomorrow, TeachVac will publish an analysis of the first two weeks of 2023 compared with the same period in 2022 and compare the position with the government’s ITT census of trainees expected to be job hunting for a September 2023 post. The figures in some subjects will look extremely worrying.

ITT applications better: but not good enough

Posted on December 29, 2022 by John Howson

Despite this week being a holiday period for most people, the DfE has published the data about ITT applications up to 19^th December 2022. This is the second monthly set of data about applications for 2023 courses. While December is still too early to be certain about the outcome of the recruitment round, it is now possible to see the strength of the interest in teaching as a graduate career at the start of the recruitment round.

The headline is that as far as offers are concerned most subjects have made more offers that at this time last year, but generally fewer than in December 2020. However, some subjects such as religious education, computing, drama, history and physical education have made fewer offers than in December 2021. For history and physical education, the number of offers is probably not of concern since traditionally both these subjects over-recruit against any DfE number supplied for the Teacher Supply Model. For the other subjects, the lack of offers this early must be of some concern since they failed to reach expected levels last year, and the mountain is now looking even steep to climb during 2023.

The total number of applicants by 22^nd December was 12,897 compared with 12,310 on the 20^th December 2021. This year the applicants generated 33,688 applications compared with 32,016 at December 2021. It is welcome that both these numbers are up this year, but the increase is not enough to suggest that there will not be concern about meeting targets during 2023.

More worryingly, only 196 applicants have been ‘recruited’, although the number of candidates with ‘conditions pending’ is similar to the number in December 2021. Fortunately, the number of candidates that have received and offer and are yet to respond is up by several hundred on the December 2021 figure.

The total number of applications for secondary courses is up on December 2021, by around 2,000 while the number of applications for primary courses is down by nearly a thousand to 14,500. More disturbingly, the number of unsuccessful applications for secondary courses is up from 8,377 in December 2021 to 9,654 this year. Some of these applicants may still find a place though the Apply 2 route later in the recruitment round.

More than 10% of candidates this year are classified as having applied from ‘the rest of the world’. The increase in this group masks the fall in applicants from London; the South East and the East of England regions. As these three regions are the parts of England struggling most to recruit teachers, the loss of potential candidates for 2023 is a matter of concern although applications to these regions are higher than last year, possibly boosted by the increase in overseas applicants.

Applications from candidates age 22, probably recent graduates or those graduating in 2023 are slightly down, applications from most other age groups are at similar levels to last year.

Higher Education courses remain buoyant, with all other types of courses also recording more applications. Of the 196 applicants so far ‘recruited’, 181 have been recruited by higher education providers to their courses.

Two swallows don’t make a summer, and two months data may not represent the rest of the application round, but, unless there is a significant upturn in applicants to secondary courses during the first eight months of 2023, the outlook for courses in autumn 2023 will not be much better than the dismal numbers recorded in the recent DfE ITT Census for courses that started in autumn of 2022. Such an outcome would imply another challenging labour market for secondary schools in 2024 that is unless school funding for future pay awards was such as to drive down demand for teachers to cover the increased pay awards.

ITT disaster

Posted on December 1, 2022 by John Howson

Congratulations to the DfE. The ITT Census of trainees published this morning Initial teacher training: trainee number census 2022 to 2023 – GOV.UK (www.gov.uk) shows a lower percentages of trainees this year compared with last year in every secondary subject except design and technology. In that subject there was an increase from 23% of target to 25% this year.

These trainee numbers are grim news for secondary schools that will be looking to recruit teachers for September 2023, and January 2024. Retention of existing staff must be high on the agenda for school leaders.

Even if all trainees were to complete their courses, and want to work in state schools, there would only be 444 physics teachers entering the market. Allow for in-course wastage and a proportion working either in private schools or Sixth Form Colleges and there may only be around 300 or so looking to work as physics teachers next September in State Schools.

Even in history and physical education, where over-recruitment to target continued again this year, actual trainee numbers appear to be down on last year, with a combined loss of around 600 potential teachers.

Overall, just 59% of secondary target places have been filled this year, even after taking the over-recruitment into account. Physics, as predicted by Jack Worth at NfER and suggested by this both reached only 17% of target.

Modern Foreign Languages slumped from 71% 0f target last year to just 34% of target this year. Even biology, usual a banker for good recruitment in the sciences only managed 85% of total this year.

What should the DfE do now? The bursary scheme isn’t working, and is inefficient and difficult to market. Perhaps it is time to revert to offering a salary during training to all trainees allowing them to build-up pension credits and making career switching more attractive. Some decisions must be taken, otherwise the levelling up agenda is dead in the water as far as schools are concerned.

More later as the whole dataset is reviewed.

Is PE now a shortage subject?

Posted on November 12, 2022 by John Howson

What a silly question. Everyone knows that there is an over-supply of trained PE teachers entering the labour market for teachers each year. This blog has said so often enough in the past. In previous years, the combination of over-recruitment onto training courses and a consistent level of demand has always meant that by the end of a calendar year there were always more PE teachers looking for jobs than posts available.

In 2022, the situation is slightly different. Yes, recruitment in Autumn 2021 onto ITT courses remained healthy, but the surge in vacancies for teachers recorded across the board during 2022 has swept PE along with the tide.

Using the index TeachVac developed in 2015, and has used since, to measure demand against the known level of supply, 2022 has seen the index for PE teachers turn negative for the first time ever this autumn. (The dataset is at the foot of this post). The current index produced a figure of -135 on Friday 11^th November 2022. This compares with a figure of -2273 for design and technology teachers, so it is still of a different order of magnitude but is in negative territory for the first time since I started recording the index.

At this level, the index points to regional shortages rather than a universal issue recruiting PE teacher across the whole of England. There are parts of the country where any late vacancy for a PE teacher for January 2023 can be filled easily. But there are other areas, notably those some distance from providers of training where schools would likely need to rely upon returners or switching their timetable around to cover unexpected vacancies.

Schools with contracts with recruitment agencies might like to check, as I assume they do on a regular basis anyway, how many PE teachers the agency has on its books. Schools should never wait to ask when they need a vacancy filled but should be aware of which agency can supply the best range of teachers to fill unanticipated vacancies. This is, perhaps, an area of recruitment where there is room for some more sophistication on the part of schools and MATs.

So, why the mini recruitment crisis in PE? Perhaps the rising school population plays a part, as does possible departures form the profession as the range of other possible jobs, from personal trainer, to working in leisure centres or teaching overseas has increased. Schools might also have seen PE teachers are useful support for their science and other departments where recruitment has been a challenge for some time now. The use of PE teachers across other curriculum subjects provides a reservoir of talent but can pose an issue for a school with a in-year vacancy if external recruitment does prove challenging.

If this week’s NAHT survey is anything to go by, this will be a short-lived problem as schools see funding decline and staffing number reduced. We shall see what Wednesday’s Autumn Statement brings for schools: good news may be in short supply.

Date	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022
07/01/2022	1149	1120	955	981	1164	1219	1498	1455
14/01/2022	1144	1108	943	970	1148	1199	1488	1427
21/01/2022	1144	1100	930	958	1130	1174	1474	1395
28/01/2022	1141	1093	916	945	1107	1148	1458	1360
04/02/2022	1124	1082	904	931	1082	1121	1440	1339
11/02/2022	1118	1071	891	914	1062	1090	1420	1298
18/02/2022	1117	1066	881	902	1040	1049	1407	1267
25/02/2022	1117	1053	867	892	1026	1029	1390	1241
04/03/2022	1105	1034	850	881	1009	1004	1367	1194
11/03/2022	1098	1017	830	851	984	967	1341	1152
18/03/2022	1088	999	810	842	964	917	1322	1102
25/03/2022	1079	978	797	825	927	891	1297	1056
01/04/2022	1071	968	781	802	897	874	1265	1002
08/04/2022	1071	959	768	785	859	850	1251	952
15/04/2022	1057	939	757	772	838	834	1237	926
22/04/2022	1039	914	744	738	822	825	1208	899
29/04/2022	1021	891	713	690	797	800	1161	829
06/05/2022	1004	876	686	651	740	767	1119	737
13/05/2022	993	857	652	608	683	738	1073	633
20/05/2022	986	834	627	561	635	705	1030	553
27/05/2022	979	817	605	528	590	684	998	480
03/06/2022	962	808	590	521	569	677	978	447
10/06/2022	945	790	568	484	532	659	952	374
17/06/2022	938	772	546	469	501	646	930	315
24/06/2022	930	765	537	455	481	637	914	271
01/07/2022	922	761	530	447	466	628	901	232
08/07/2022	917	756	524	435	454	621	893	208
15/07/2022	915	748	519	425	443	616	886	195
22/07/2022	915	745	517	420	440	612	884	183
29/07/2022	915	745	513	418	438	610	882	177
05/08/2022	915	743	510	416	437	609	879	175
12/08/2022	915	741	506	416	436	609	877	171
19/08/2022	915	741	506	415	435	606	875	166
26/08/2022	915	741	503	412	433	605	871	161
02/09/2022	915	738	501	411	432	604	868	152
09/09/2022	913	736	497	406	425	601	857	132
16/09/2022	903	731	489	400	409	592	842	107
23/09/2022	897	727	482	385	395	584	824	79
30/09/2022	890	716	470	374	372	570	805	42
07/10/2022	882	710	461	355	347	557	785	6
14/10/2022	873	704	452	350	325	545	763	-30
21/10/2022	864	699	441	337	304	530	744	-62
28/10/2022	862	692	435	334	291	517	736	-76
04/11/2022	858	683	430	326	284	512	715	-105
11/11/2022	852	674	421	314	267	501	690	-135
18/11/2022	847	662	409	295	252	486	668
25/11/2022	842	652	402	292	239	477	648
02/12/2022	840	647	395	280	222	462	633
09/12/2022	833	642	388	273	207	452	618
16/12/2022	828	632	384	262	196	447	599
23/12/2022	825	626	378	253	183	436
30/12/2022

STEM subjects ‘late recruiters’?

Posted on September 27, 2022 by John Howson

Yesterday’s post about the grim news on recruitment onto teacher preparation courses for 2022/23 didn’t mine all the possible information provided in the DfE data published in the monthly update.

One interesting statistic are how the proportion of applicants for secondary subjects has changed over the course of the year. Last December, I wrote a blog post pointing out that nearly half of early applicants came from just three subjects: English, mathematics and physical education. Half of secondary ITT applicants in just 3 subjects | John Howson (wordpress.com)

As expected, physical education trended lower as the year progressed, and places on courses filled up. The subject ended the year on 19% of total applications – down 5% on December. English also lost ground, down from 13% in December to 8% by September. However, mathematics seemed to be a ‘late attracting subject’, as by September the subject accounted for 18% of applications, up from 12% in December.

Removing these three subjects from the list and comparing the moves among the remaining subjects shows relatively little difference in many subjects in their position in the ranking.

Subject	Total December	Percentage December	Total September	Percentage September	% Difference
Art and design	378	6%	2410	7%	1
Biology	552	9%	3457	10%	1
Business studies	283	5%	1601	4%	1
Chemistry	509	8%	4055	11%	3
Classics	62	1%	261	1%	na
Computing	309	5%	2248	6%	1
Design and technology	243	4%	1638	5%	1
Drama	352	6%	1426	4%	-2
Geography	385	6%	2498	7%	1
History	1057	18%	4531	13%	-5
Modern foreign languages	568	9%	3880	11%	2
Music	191	3%	1160	3%	0
Other	564	9%	2321	6%	-3
Physics	307	5%	2830	8%	3
Religious education	231	4%	1541	4%	0
	5991	100%	35857	100%

When do different subjects recruit?

As might have been predicted, drama and history lost ground once courses filled up. The sciences were the main winners. This suggests that subjects that may have a higher proportion of men may recruit later in the round – we cannot know for certain as the data on gender isn’t published by subject – but it is a plausible hypothesis to discuss in relation to gender and STEM subjects.

The second hypothesis is that subjects where potential teachers know there may be difficulty in securing a place on a teacher preparation course will recruit earlier in the year. These bellwether subjects, such as history, physical education and also the primary sector can provide early warning on what might be to come in the autumn months.

As a piece of history, it was using this second hypothesis in the early 2000s that prompted me to call a recruitment crisis as early as one November and to be warned off by the then Minister’s Private Office in a phone call I took while a passenger in a car travelling down the M5 in Somerset for creating panic. The following March, the training grant was suddenly announced. Perhaps, I have been at this subject for too long.

Knowing this sort of information about recruitment trends can make the use of expensive TV marketing more precise. Is the present TV campaign a good use of money or would it be better aimed at STEM subjects in the spring?

Grim news on recruitment

Posted on September 26, 2022 by John Howson

The latest monthly statistics on applications and acceptances for graduate teacher preparation courses starting this autumn were published by the DfE this morning. These numbers mark the end of the first year of the DfE management of the application process for all graduate courses except Teach First.

Regular readers will not be surprised by what follows, as the headline outcome around under-recruitment for the year has been expected for several months, and this blog has commented upon the direction of travel each month in its regular updates.

The total number of applications at 39,288 falls well short of the 43,300 recorded for September 2021 as domiciled in England. More alarming is that the recruited number at 20,170 is just short of 7,000 lower than the 27,100 number of September 2021. The conditions pending number at 3,719 is also below the 2021 number of 5,980, and the remining possible applicants either awaiting a decision or from whom a decision is awaited on an offer are also lower than last year.

Compared with September 2021, there are 111,592 applications in September 2022 against 115,300 last year domiciled in England. Especially worrying has been the reduction in applicants from the youngest age groups of graduates. Those new graduates under age 25 form the bedrock of those recruited into teaching as a career and any serious fall is bad news.

Age Group	2021	2022
21 and under	3920	3833
22	3810	3110
23	3000	2347
24	2340	1698
Total placed	13070	10988

young graduates not interested in teaching as a career?

These are the groups from where the future leaders of the teaching profession will be drawn. According to the data released today, there are just fewer than 15,000 females placed onto courses this year compared with just over 19,000 last September. For males the numbers are 5,514 this year and 7,550 in September 2021. Unknown or referred not to say increased from 440 in 2021 to 175 with only three not in the ‘prefer not to say category’. Fewer candidates with domiciles in each region have been recruited in 2022 than in 2021. However, more important is the split between primary and secondary sectors.

There are 9,763 applications recruited in the primary sector in September 2022 compared with 12,690 in September 2021. Unsuccessful applications have fallen from 38,800 in 2021 to 35,962 this September. However, the percentage of unsuccessful applications has increased from 72% to 74$. Of course, this may mean applicants being accepted and their other applications being shown as unsuccessful. We will need the ITT Census to determine the exact recruitment into both primary and secondary training.

For secondary courses the situation is more complicated because of the different subjects and the different sizes of their graduate pools. The good news is that both geography and design and technology are likely to recruit more trainees than in 2021. The bad news is that the increase, if confirmed by the ITT Census won’t be enough to meet targets set by the DfE. In other subjects, there will be sufficient history and physical education trainees and a large surge in applications for IT and computing may make the total in that subject ore respectable, if these trainees turn up and stay the course.

Overall, the assessment for the secondary sector is that for 2023 to be anything other than a grim labour market for schools and a great time for teachers, there needs to be more returners and fewer departure overseas. I am not sure that either of those conditions will be in place by the time schools start recruiting in January 2023 for September.

TeachVac www.teachvac.co.uk will be monitoring the job market and is the ideal site to find a teaching post.

With the concerns over the shape of teacher recruitment following the DfE’s actions the next few months will be an interesting time in the labour market for teachers and likely outcomes even as far ahead as 2024. While the primary sector will probably not be too badly affected, the issue of selective schools now looms over the secondary sector to add to the other recruitment concerns.

John Howson

Education and the numbers that affect what happens

Tag Archives: Physical education