Bad news for January vacancies

The May 31st date for teacher resignations has come and gone. This year it has excited some interest in the press, as they have finally caught on to the thread this blog has been running ever since the DfE’s ITT census was published last September: namely, this this was going to be brutal recruitment round, and that there would not be enough teachers to meet the demands from schools seeking to fill vacancies for September 2023.

So far this week TeachVac has provided data for both tes and schoolsweek, and had calls on the subject from national newspapers as well. One group that has been conspicuously silent has been the House of Commons Select committee on Education that instituted an inquiry into teacher recruitment and retention on the 20th March, and required evidence by the 21st April: since when silence. I know that the Committee normally meets on a Monday, and that there have been a lot of Monday bank holidays, but not to even have considered whether any of the evidence was worth publishing for more than a month does seem a little strange.

Anyway, this blog isn’t about the Select Committee, but about schools faced with unexpected January vacancies. Last year, between the 1st November 2022 and the end of December, secondary schools posted 7,857 vacancies according to TeachVac www.teachvac.co.uk That was a 53% increase in the number of vacancies recorded during this period when compared with the same period in 2021. Geography teachers were particularly in demand.

Whether in the autumn of 2023 it is the 7,857 vacancies of 2022 or just the 5,136 of 2021, schools will struggle to fill these vacancies, regardless of the subject. Some schools will struggle more than others. Indeed, previous analysis by TeachVac of the data, as reported on this blog, has shown that secondary schools with high percentages of pupils on free school meals tend to place more adverts for teachers than either private schools or state schools with low numbers of pupils claiming free school meals.

What can be done to help? If, as seems likely to be the case, there are more primary school teachers looking for jobs this year than there are posts available, could there be a one-term conversion course established for the autumn term, along the lines of the subject conversion courses for those lacking the full qualifications to enter ITT in a particular subject.

The primary to secondary course would be different in that the teachers would be qualified.  For such a course to work the teachers would probably need to be paid a salary that made it worth their while taking part in the course. If the DfE wanted to recoup their costs they could offer schools a teacher that completed the course for the price of a recruitment advert or the amount a school would spend with an agency to find a teacher.

Such teachers could teach Key Stage 3 based upon their A level subjects and release existing teachers to cover Key Stages 4 & 5, and examination groups left without a teacher by the vacancy created or indeed left unfilled from September.

There is little time to organise such a programme, but the alternative is to saddle schools with the need to spend lots of cash chasing teachers that aren’t there in vain attempts to fill their vacancies.

Note: As a director of TeachVac www.teachvac.co.uk I am an interested party in the operation of the recruitment market. However, TeachVac’s £500 offer for listings of all vacancies for 15 months until August 2024 is substantially cheaper than other sites, especially for non-state schools that cannot access the DfE’s job board.

The reality of the teacher recruitment crisis

Thanks to the DfE reopening the data files on teacher numbers and the calculations behind the need for increased targets it is now possible to ask some more interesting questions about teacher supply.

Two key ones are: what percentage of new entrants should we expect to enter the Further Education Sector and what percentage should we expect to take teaching posts in private schools and tutoring establishments? The DfE should have access to this data from the profiles of ITT providers.

However, there is some sector-wide evidence in the data associated with the Teacher Supply Model in the tables of the percentage completing ITT and percentage employed in state schools that can go some way to addressing these questions.

SubjectCompletion %Entering Employment %2022 offers2022 ITT Census minus TFCensus as % OffersEntering Employment Based 2022 on census
Primary9168 10,582  
 Mathematics897020481,67982%1175
 Biology907368456683%413
 Chemistry897284970383%506
 Physics846453240376%258
 Computing896241932979%204
 English927616461,44788%1100
 Classics9759645891%34
 Modern Languages936280865781%407
 Geography926861657293%389
 History93711144103290%733
 Art & Design936656547885%315
 Business Studies926324218677%117
 Design & Technology937444442896%317
 Drama946738432986%220
 Music916628725890%170
 Others946548442688%277
 Physical Education97631543140591%885
 Religious Education927234029386%211
 Secondary total   12,356 7733
Source: DfE and TeachVac

Completion rates used by the DfE vary from just 84% in the already small cohort of physics trainees to 97% in both Classics and physical education. Percentages entering employment range from 74% of design and technology trainees to 59% of classics trainees and 62% of computing trainees. Physics, with an employment rate of 64%, has a percentage that is little better than computing.

In calculating the number of trainees in the 2022 ITT Census – minus Teach First trainees, as they are already in the classroom – I have assumed the same base level as a starting point as for completion rates as for employment rates. If the percentage entering employment were of the percentage completing, the totals for the latter would be lower.

So, where are the missing 145 physics trainees? Undoubtedly, the largest number are teaching in the private sector; some will be lecturing in Sixth Form of other Further Education colleges and some won’t have entered teaching at all. A few might have decided to work in schools outside of England.

I suspect that the influence of the private sector on these numbers is best seen in the data around classics. The Census recorded 58 trainees, with just 59% entering employment in the state sector. That’s just 34 teachers. With the target for 2023/24 cut to 25, if ITT providers stuck to the target and didn’t over-recruit, it is entirely possible that there would be no Classics trainees available for the state school sector for September 2024.

Now, many may not weep about the loss of classics as a subject, although a cogent case can be made for its retention by those that support it. Fortunately, in history and physical education, where targets have been reduced, low employment percentages may owe more to the over-recruitment against the previous targets than a warning of teacher shortages. However, the contribution of these teachers to the staffing of other subjects may cause other problems for the staff creating timetables for schools in September 2024.

Collateral damage to religious education, where the employment rate of 72% produce a total of only 293 new entrants, is one obvious likely outcome if history numbers are restricted to anywhere close to the 2023 target.

As these numbers haven’t been adjusted for either apprenticeships or the School Direct Salaried scheme, they may well still be slightly too high to represent reality in terms of the ‘open’ labour market.

How they are spread out across the country, is a whole different set of issues that perhaps the Select committee might like to delve into as part of its discussions with the Secretary of State.