Way back in history, well 2018 to be precise, I wrote a blog about selective schools during a period of rising pupil numbers. A fudge with no teeth | John Howson As the country now heads into a period of falling pupil rolls, discussed in my previous post in relation to all secondary schools, I thought that I would take a look at rolls across the selective school sector in the autumn of 2026.
The DfE uses two measures ‘capacity’ and ‘number on roll’. Capacity is defined as ‘The number of pupil places the establishment can accommodate.’ Outwood Academy Hasland Hall – GOV.UK link used as an example. In a rational system might the number on roll (NOR) be expected to be somewhere between +/- say 5% of the capacity number? In reality, in the selective school sector, currently this is not the case.
Selective schools fall into one of three groups;
| within the 5% of NOR | 69 |
| NOR more than 5% below capacity | 20 |
| NOR more than 5% above capacity | 74 |
Just over a half of selective schools are either within or below capacity, whereas 46% of these schools are more than five per cent over the DfE’s recorded capacity.
Are there any regional differences? Answering that question must acknowledge that the spread of selective schools is not even across England, with for fewer in the north and the midlands than in the south and west of England.
| Region | within the 5% of NOR | NOR more than 5% below capacity | NOR more than 5% above capacity | Total | % above 5% |
| East of England | 4 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 50% |
| East Midlands | 7 | 6 | 3 | 16 | 19% |
| London | 6 | 1 | 12 | 19 | 63% |
| North East | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| North West | 12 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 16% |
| South East | 24 | 4 | 29 | 57 | 51% |
| South West | 5 | 5 | 10 | 20 | 50% |
| West Midlands | 8 | 0 | 11 | 19 | 58% |
| Yorks & Humber | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 33% |
| Total | 67 | 21 | 74 | 162 | 46% |
The East Midlands has relatively few selective schools, mostly in rural areas, and most are either within or below capacity. Might this be down to transport issues, and any absence of free transport to selective schools from rural areas? Both the North West and Yorkshire and the Humber’s regions few selective schools are mostly within or below capacity. Again, might transport be an issue?
In London, the South East, South West, East of England and the West Midlands, at least half the selective schools are more than 50% over capacity, by DfE data.
London, has the highest percentage of selective school more than 50% over capacity at 63%, followed by the West Midlands at 58%. Both regions have few, if any, schools with selective school operating at more than 5% below capacity. Whether the urban nature of these regions males a difference isn’t clear, but the North West also has few schools operating below capacity.
The next piece of research is to consider the urban/rural nature of selective schools below capacity and whether the lack of free transport might be affecting these schools?
However, the big question is who will lose cash as pupil rolls fall? Will over-capacity selective schools reduce their rolls, and either stop hiring or make staff redundant or will non-selective schools have to bear all the loss of income resulting from falling rolls under the present pupil led funding system?
This is where the importance of pupil place planning becomes clear. What will a Labour government do? Favour selective schools or ensure they return to capacity?
This is an interesting question that needs airing, especially as this Labour government seem as unwilling as the last to design a secondary school system fit or all pupils.
