Following on from my initial analysis of September’s data on postgraduate teacher preparation course applications and offers, outlined in the previous post, I have now looked at the data in more detail.
The table below looks at the DfE target for entry into courses in autumn 2025 plus the increase in ‘offers’ made between the June and September data runs this year. The number shown as ‘accepted’ in September is then compared with the ‘target to show any possible over-recruitment or ‘shortfall’ there might be in each subject and phase. The latter would be bad news for schools seeking to recruit into those subjects both next September, and in January 2027.
| Subject | Target2025/26 | % increase in Offers Sept on June | accepted Sept 25 | over/under target |
| Total Secondary | 19,270 | 26% | 16843 | -2,427 |
| Primary | 7,650 | 34% | 9880 | 2,230 |
| Chemistry | 730 | 49% | 909 | 179 |
| Biology | 985 | 36% | 1397 | 412 |
| Mathematics | 2,300 | 35% | 2617 | 317 |
| Design & Technology | 965 | 33% | 678 | -287 |
| Art & Design | 680 | 33% | 902 | 222 |
| Geography | 935 | 33% | 981 | 46 |
| Classics | 60 | 32% | 42 | -18 |
| English | 1,950 | 31% | 1760 | -190 |
| Drama | 620 | 30% | 273 | -347 |
| Business Studies | 900 | 29% | 235 | -665 |
| Music | 565 | 28% | 343 | -222 |
| Religious Education | 780 | 28% | 418 | -362 |
| Others | 2,520 | 25% | 360 | -2,160 |
| History | 790 | 23% | 936 | 146 |
| Modern Languages | 1,460 | 21% | 1428 | -32 |
| Physics | 1,410 | 19% | 1313 | -97 |
| Physical Education | 725 | 17% | 1491 | 766 |
| Computing | 895 | 5% | 761 | -134 |
The data is interesting. There has indeed been a surge in ‘offers’ made in many subjects between June and September. Chemistry leads the way, with a 49% increase in ‘offers’ between June and September. This is followed by Biology (36%), mathematics (35%) and art and design (33%)
Other art subjects have seen significant increases in ‘offers’ of between 28-33%, but that has not been enough to ensure targets will be met this year. In some subject, notably history and geography, targets were close to being met by June, so few new offers have been made. This is not seemingly the case in PE, the targets had been met by June, but 17% more offers have been made between June and September. Overall, this suggests a late surge in interest in teaching as a career.
Of more concern is the situation in Classics, English, drama, business studies and music, plus religious education and the catch-all ‘other subject’s where targets will be missed, even though ‘offers’ have increased significantly for the time of year. The DfE needs to assess how the market is changing in regard of who wants to be a teacher.
Because of the complication of applications from outside of the United Kingdom, it won’t be until the ITT Census is published in December that the full picture on recruitment into ITT will emerge.
However, civil servants cannot assume, ‘more of the same’ is what is needed in what may be a changing market, where for some teaching now looks more attractive as a career.
In changing times, the amount of data available can be helpful in assessing what is happening. In the previous post, I suggested some data points that it would be useful to have regional and provider level data during the recruitment round, especially in relation to the probability, based on previous years’ data, of those applying from outside of the United Kingdom taking up a place if offered one.
John Howson 