This morning the DfE published the data on applications for postgraduate ITT courses up to the 15^th May 2023. As ever, the key table at this time of year is the number of offers that have been made to candidates. The good news is that the 469 offers in physics represents the highest number in May since 2015/16, albeit the total is only nine above that in May 2021. Still, we must celebrate good news where it is to be found. However, the 469 offers still means that the target for the year will likely be missed by a long way unless there is an influx of new graduates over the next three months wanting to train as a teacher of physics.

Elsewhere, design and technology as a subject is also doing well compared with the dreadful lows of recent years. Mathematics, geography computing, chemistry and modern languages are all subjects that have bounced back from last year’s incredibly low levels, but have yet to recover to pre-pandemic levels of offer for this point in the recruitment cycle.

There is less good news in the arts, with art, religious education, music and history recording their worst offer levels for a decade. Business Studies is also recording a low level of offers. Drama, classics and the catch-all of ‘other’ are also recording lower levels of offer than last year.

Both physical education and history that have provided a buffer of new entrants through over-recruitment in the past seem less likely to do so this year. Indeed, history with only 721 offers – the lowest number of offers in May since before 2013/14 – might end up being classified as a shortage subject for the first time in recorded memory.

Applications for primary courses remain subdued with 33,392 applications compared with 35,401 in May 2022. Overall, candidate numbers were 32,481 this May, compared with 28,977 in May 2022. On the face of it, this is also good news. However, ‘Rest of the world’ applications are up from 2,310 in May 2022 to 5,781 this May and those from the EEA from 411 to 485. The 3,545 extra applications from these two areas outside of the United Kingdom may account for all the 3,500 additional applications this May compared with May 2022. Certainly, there are fewer applications from the London area this year. However, there are more applications across most of the north of England and the Midlands.

Young new graduates are still not being attracted to teaching in the same numbers as previously. Applications from those age 21 or under are still lower than in May 2022, as are applications form those age 22. It is not until the 25-29 age-group that the upturn in applications becomes apparent. The decline in applications for primary courses may be reflected in this trend to fewer young applicants to teaching.

Perhaps related to the geographical distribution of applications is the increase in rejections; up from 22,136 in May 2022 to 33,580 in May 2023. Numbers actually ‘recruited’ have fallen from 1,519 to 1,102 this May. However, perhaps because of the many bank holidays, the number of applications awaiting provider decisions has increased sharply. Next month should provide a clearer picture about the trend in ‘offers’ for September 2023.

Despite the limited good news in some subjects this recruitment round looks as if it will be another one where targets are missed and schools recruiting for September 2024 will again face a challenging labour market unless the STRB report and the rumour of a 6.5% pay award boosts recruitment over the next three months.