Monthly Archives: December 2022

More ITT census data

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London appears to have fared better than the rest of England in terms of the percentage decline in trainee numbers. That said, there isn’t yet time to investigate any a regional breakdown by subject.

Postgraduate new entrants by region
2021/222022/23Decrease in trainee numbers% Decline
South East4,4293,039-1,390-31%
Yorkshire and The Humber3,2242,368-856-27%
West Midlands3,2512,417-834-26%
South West2,1771,679-498-23%
East of England2,4991,932-567-23%
North East1,178935-243-21%
East Midlands2,0951,666-429-20%
North West4,3453,473-872-20%
London6,8955,715-1,180-17%
England30,09323,224-6,869-23%
Source ITT Census

Since some parts of the South East region already have limited access to trainees in some subjects, the overall decline in trainee number sin that region must be of concern.

Of more interest to schools is the likely open market numbers after removing those on the high Achievers (Teach First) programme and on apprenticeships or the salaried route where the trainees may be committed to a particular school. Assuming that 5% of the remainder don’t end up in state schools for any one of a number of reasons; this may be an underestimate in some parts of the country, the ‘free market’ pool of trainees likely to be looking for a September 2023 teaching post looks something like the following table

SubjectOpen Market
Mathematics1467
English1214
Modern Languages600
Biology495
Physics366
Chemistry644
Physical Education1295
Other387
Design & Technology372
History950
Geography523
Computing304
Art & Design440
Religious Education249
Music228
Drama304
Business Studies164
Classics52
Source TeachVac analysis

Should this table be anywhere near correct, then there will be shortages in many subjects from quite early in 2023. As mentioned in the first of this series of posts, schools might do well to ensure that they can retain staff. Paying large sums to try to recruit teachers may just be a wate of money.

Although all ethnic groups have seen a decline in trainee numbers since 2019, the decline has been most obvious in the ‘White’ group where there are around 5,000 fewer trainees this year compared with 219/20. Most other ethnic groups have seen only a small decline in trainee numbers since 2019.

Ethnic Group2019/202020/212021/222022/23
Asian2,8403,3782,8622,752
Black1,0541,4271,1591,027
Mixed8561,060900820
Other346495447406
White22,21026,32421,56317,394
Source ITT Census

Part of the reason for the decline in ‘White’ trainees may be the reduction in the number of trainees needed for the primary sector where this group has dominated in certain parts of the country.

More worrying is the loss of young graduates coming into teaching. These are the potential leaders of tomorrow. Although undergraduate numbers are up; postgraduate numbers are nearly 800 below their pre-pandemic level

Aged under 25
2019/202020/212021/222022/23
Postgraduate Total14,56417,45515,73612,281
Higher Education Institution7,5619,2527,9096,351
School Centred ITT1,6932,2092,1982,012
School Direct (fee-funded)3,5914,3044,2092,709
School Direct (salaried)578540255205
Postgraduate Teaching Apprenticeship3776225193
High Potential ITT1,1041,074940811
Undergraduate4,4175,4485,5115,350
Total18,98122,90321,24717,631
Source ITT Census

Higher education seems to have bene most affected by this decline in interest in teaching among new graduates and those in the early years of their careers. This year, the number of men entering teaching as graduates fell to 7,155 well below the 9,229 of 2019/20.

As I commented in the two previous posts today about the ITT census, these are challenging numbers for the government and very worrying for schools.

More on the ITT census

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It is a fair comment to say that comparing this year’s data on trainees with last year doesn’t take into account the covid pandemic effect. Because it could well be so, I have looked back at trainee numbers reported in autumn 2019, before we had ever heard of the term covid, and compared those trainee numbers with the current ITT census

2019/202022/2322/23 compared with 19/20
SubjectPostgraduate total new entrants to ITTPostgraduate total new entrants to ITT
Biology1,937664-1273
English2,9071,762-1145
Geography1,317656-661
Modern Foreign Languages1,387726-661
History1,4601,134-326
Mathematics2,1591,844-315
Religious Education494341-153
Computing472348-124
Physics527444-83
Classics7158-13
Chemistry770758-12
Music312301-11
Design & Technology43345017
Drama29432935
Business Studies18523247
Art & Design41347865
Physical Education1,2811,405124
Other282426144
STEM Subjects5,8654,058-1807
EBacc Subjects13,0078,394-4613
Non-EBacc Secondary Subjects3,6943,962268
Primary12,21610,868-1348
Secondary16,70112,356-4345
Total28,91723,224-5693
Source DfE ITT census

The good news is that six subjects recruited more trainees this year than in 2019/2020, providing a total of 432 additional trainees in secondary subjects to offset against the more than 4,500 fewer trainees in other key subjects. Now, some of the reductions may be due to changes in targets in popular subjects, but with over recruitment still possible it is difficult to see why providers would take that approach.

The chaos that is science recruitment continues, with biology providing nearly 1,300 fewer teachers this year. Do we need a ‘general science’ category, and for all science trainees to receive similar bursaries if that is still the favoured route to attract new teachers?

The decline in trainees in English, so that there are this year fewer trainees this year than in mathematics and more than 1,000 fewer than in 2019/20, must be of concern as must be the collapse in Modern Foreign Languages trainees, especially if we are to remain a trading nation, not only with the EU, but across the world. Whatever happened to Mr Gove’s 5,000 Mandarin teachers?

Is it good news that the decline in design and technology and business studies has stopped or should we still be worried that the decline has been arrested at such low levels?

The decline in primary trainee numbers must partly reflect the decline in the birth rate and the expected continued decline in the primary school population. Nevertheless, this sort of overall number may cause some local staffing issues for the sector unless the trainee numbers are well spread across England to meet the needs of all primary schools.

There may be a glimmer of good news in the fact that non-Ebacc subjects fared better than Ebacc subjects over the period. Might this be providing a portent of a change in the overall labour market that with the coming recession might meant that this years’ numbers really were the bottom of the cycle? The first set of applications data should provide clues for the 2024 recruitment round when the DfE issues them; hopefully next week.

ITT disaster

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Congratulations to the DfE. The ITT Census of trainees published this morning Initial teacher training: trainee number census 2022 to 2023 – GOV.UK (www.gov.uk) shows a lower percentages of trainees this year compared with last year in every secondary subject except design and technology. In that subject there was an increase from 23% of target to 25% this year.

These trainee numbers are grim news for secondary schools that will be looking to recruit teachers for September 2023, and January 2024. Retention of existing staff must be high on the agenda for school leaders.

Even if all trainees were to complete their courses, and want to work in state schools, there would only be 444 physics teachers entering the market. Allow for in-course wastage and a proportion working either in private schools or Sixth Form Colleges and there may only be around 300 or so looking to work as physics teachers next September in State Schools.

Even in history and physical education, where over-recruitment to target continued again this year, actual trainee numbers appear to be down on last year, with a combined loss of around 600 potential teachers.

Overall, just 59% of secondary target places have been filled this year, even after taking the over-recruitment into account. Physics, as predicted by Jack Worth at NfER and suggested by this both reached only 17% of target.

Modern Foreign Languages slumped from 71% 0f target last year to just 34% of target this year. Even biology, usual a banker for good recruitment in the sciences only managed 85% of total this year.

What should the DfE do now? The bursary scheme isn’t working, and is inefficient and difficult to market. Perhaps it is time to revert to offering a salary during training to all trainees allowing them to build-up pension credits and making career switching more attractive. Some decisions must be taken, otherwise the levelling up agenda is dead in the water as far as schools are concerned.

More later as the whole dataset is reviewed.