When design and technology is the only key subject recording more offers to would-be graduates wanting to train as a teacher in April 2022 than at the same point in the 2021 recruitment into training round, you know something unusual is happening.
Being charitable, one might ascribe the lack of offers to candidates to a combination of the timing of Easter this year and the imminent announcement when the data were collected of the 2022 ITT Training targets by the DfE. Apart from design and technology every secondary subject that I have been tracking since the 2013/14 round is recording lower offer numbers than in April 2021.
Of course, ‘offers’ defined as those in the ‘recruited’, ‘conditions pending’, ’deferred from a previous cycle’ and ‘received an offer’ don’t tell the whole story. Trends in applications are also a key barometer as they aren’t influenced so much by targets although Easter does affect when candidates apply, as does the forthcoming examination season for finalists that might not yet have applied to train as a teacher.
Applications to train as a primary teacher reached 31,925 by mid-April this year. The table shows how that number compares with recent years.
| Applications | February | March | April | May | June | July | August | September | |
| Primary | 2016/17 | 37910 | 41530 | 44260 | 46720 | 49350 | 51590 | 53410 | 54310 |
| Primary | 2017/18 | 26430 | 30540 | 33810 | 38110 | 41180 | 44310 | 46900 | 48060 |
| Primary | 2018/19 | 24710 | 28670 | 32250 | 35850 | 38880 | 41790 | 44330 | 45490 |
| Primary | 2019/2020 | 23800 | 27870 | 31920 | 35990 | 40180 | 46180 | 46890 | 48670 |
| Primary | 2020/21 | 30240 | 35770 | 41020 | 44680 | 48530 | 51310 | 52940 | 54230 |
| Primary | 2021/22 | 23967 | 28391 | 31925 |
Source TeachVac from UCAS and DfE data
So, applications are in-line with pre-pandemic lows for April. As the data on courses with vacancies has revealed, (see my blog post on that topic) this is not enough to fill courses across the country and the government cannot take the primary sector for granted.
Overall applications to the secondary sector courses are a worry and the government should take notice.
| Applications for Secondary Courses | March | April | May | June | July | August |
| 2015 | 78580 | 87590 | 95160 | 101700 | ||
| 2016 | 81490 | 87580 | 93530 | 100000 | ||
| 2017 | 75850 | 82770 | 89550 | 97370 | ||
| 2018 | 59350 | 67390 | 78460 | 86790 | ||
| 2019 | 57860 | 66740 | 76360 | 84790 | ||
| 2020 | 57780 | 68310 | 79350 | 91100 | ||
| 2021 | 72830 | 84300 | 92160 | 100720 | 120070 | 122310 |
| 2022 | 61755 | 70253 |
Source TeachVac from UCAS and DfE data
Only in 2018 and 2019 were applications lower at this point in the cycle. Hopefully, the data for May will show closer to the 90,000 number that is required to provide sufficient choice in many subjects.
Overall, some 37% of applications – note applications not applicants – have resulted in some sort of ‘offer’. According to Table 10.1 in the DfE data the percentage for design and technology is over 40%, but even that percentage won’t be high enough to ensure the target in the Teacher Supply Model is met.
I don’t know why the DfE hasn’t issued the normal mid-month update containing this data, but it is available on their web site at Initial teacher training application statistics for courses starting in the 2022 to 2023 academic year – Apply for teacher training – GOV.UK (apply-for-teacher-training.service.gov.uk)
Ministers and their Aides may well want to reflect upon this data and its implications. Keeping fingers crossed that graduate unemployment might be on the rise and teaching looks like a safe bet in any economic downturn is one possible strategy, but at present it still looks like a gamble with the education of the nation’s children that has too risky odds. The data for May will be awaited with real interest.
John Howson 