What type of tenure is on offer in teaching vacancies posted during the autumn term? Research by TeachVac www.teachvac.co.uk reveals big differences between the primary and secondary sectors in the type of tenure on offer this autumn.
TeachVac classifies vacancies into one of three groups: Permanent positions; temporary positions or posts arising from maternity leave.
The data is collected from vacancy adverts posted by schools on their web sites.
From the start of September 2022 up to 14th November: an arbitrary date with no other reason for selection than that I am writing this blog on the 15th November, the data collected was as follows.
| Classroom Teacher posts | ||||
| Primary | Maternity | Permanent | Temporary | Total |
| Sep-22 | 491 | 611 | 326 | 1428 |
| Oct-22 | 432 | 838 | 427 | 1697 |
| Nov-22 | 169 | 460 | 376 | 1005 |
| 1092 | 1909 | 1129 | 4130 | |
| Secondary | Total | |||
| Sep-22 | 554 | 2678 | 184 | 3416 |
| Oct-22 | 553 | 3035 | 267 | 3855 |
| Nov-22 | 276 | 1648 | 178 | 2102 |
| 1383 | 7361 | 629 | 9373 | |
| Grand Total | 2475 | 9270 | 1758 | 13503 |
Two facts stand out. The secondary sector advertised more vacancies than the primary sector, and there was a difference in tenure of advertised vacancies between the two sectors. This is obvious if the actual numbers are converted into percentages
| Classroom Teacher posts | ||||
| Primary | Maternity | Permanent | Temporary | |
| Sep-22 | 34% | 43% | 23% | 100% |
| Oct-22 | 25% | 49% | 25% | 100% |
| Nov-22 | 17% | 46% | 37% | 100% |
| 26% | 46% | 27% | 100% | |
| Secondary | ||||
| Sep-22 | 16% | 78% | 5% | 100% |
| Oct-22 | 14% | 79% | 7% | 100% |
| Nov-22 | 13% | 78% | 8% | 100% |
| 15% | 79% | 7% | 100% | |
| Grand Total | 18% | 69% | 13% | 100% |
Less than half of the posts advertised in the primary sector have been permanent positions, compared with 79% of vacancies in the secondary sector. Maternity leave vacancies are also much higher in the primary sector than in the secondary sector, accounting for a quarter of all vacancies in the primary sector and a third of the September vacancies.
Despite the downturn in the birth-rate nationally, primary school teachers are still it seems taking time out to raise a family. However, the downturn in pupil numbers across the primary sector must be affecting school budgets, because pupil numbers are an important element of school-funding these days. With any teacher leaving at Christmas for maternity leave not likely to return until January 2024, many schools may not be certain of their school rolls, and hence funding, beyond the summer of 2023.
With the Autumn Statement on Thursday, and the data from the recent NAHT Survey of schools, it seems likely that more schools will resort to temporary appointments in the future as they consider their budgets going forward.
Past experience from the time of the Geddes Axe of a hundred years ago and the recession of the late 1970s and early 1980s suggests that class sizes will increase and teacher numbers decline, if funding is again put under pressure, although that outcome needs to be balanced by the number of teachers quitting the state-school sector.
In the past, when there were fewer graduate posts across the economy, a recession meant unemployed teachers. This time the outcome may be different between the primary and secondary sectors, with more unemployed primary school teachers than amongst their secondary sector colleagues unless there is a change in funding arrangements.