After my last blog post on ITT targets, someone messaged me to ask how I decided which subjects were likely to meet their targets so early in the recruitment round? As I tried to make clear in that post, it isn’t an exact science, but more a guide towards trends in each subject.  

The big assumption, and why the DfE has accused me of ‘scaremongering’ in the past, is that the rest of the recruitment round will follow the pattern set in previous years. There is a rhythm to recruitment that normally goes through three phases.

Phase 1 –November to January.  Early entrants that know they want to be a teacher, and apply early in each recruitment round.

Phase 2 – February to June – final year students tend to be focused on completing their courses, so applications tend to be more likely to come from career switchers into teaching. The behaviour of this group can be closely linked to trends in the wider labour market: lots of graduate redundancies, and there will be more applications to teaching. A buoyant labour market, and fewer may consider teaching as a career. Offers will also depend more on the location of places available, as this group of applicants tends to be more location specific: they may have a partner, and a stake in a local housing market.  Places on national schemes, and local school-based programmes can be important to this group of applicants.

Phase 3 – July until the start of courses. Trends in this phase tends to be linked to the labour market for new graduates. Those graduates that have left job-seeking until after their finals will look to teaching in greater numbers if there are few options elsewhere. In the past male applicants have tended to feature more in this group, especially in some subjects.

Of course, two events can upset the normal rhythm. In 2020, the Covid pandemic created a surge in applications between April and July, possibly because of uncertainty about the wider labour market.

The other event that can shape the ITT market is the actions of government. Changes to the bursary scheme or events, such as the introduction of a Training Grant can make a big difference to applications. By their very nature, they cannot be predicted, but they can be modelled.

	2026 ENTRY TO PG ITT
	MUSIC
2025 TARGET	565
OFFERS JANUARY 2026	70
OFFERS JANUARY 2025	91
TOTAL OFFERS 2025	416
DIFFERENCE 2025 TOTAL AND 2025 January OFFERS	325
PROJECTION for 2026	395
ESTIMATED SHORTFALL	170

In the table is my estimate for the outcome for music in this round, on which I have based my view that the subject will not fill all the ITT places, if the target remains the same as last year. Any increase in the targets makes a shortfall even more likely. At present, the target would need to be reduced more than 100 places to a level not seen in recent years, and not in line with the recent Curriculum Review for the subject to meet its ITT target. Of course, restoring the bursary to music might help increase recruitment this year.