In my previous post I mentioned that I didn’t know whether or not the High Achiever programme numbers were included in the ITT overall targets. By delving into the methodology section, it seems that they are.
As Teach First has had a good record of meeting its targets, I have reworked the data for April offers to add in the assumption that all High Achiever places will be filled.
| Subject | offers April 23 | % of target | High Achievers % of Target | with High Achievers |
| Art & Design | 300 | 36% | 0% | 36% |
| Biology | 487 | 46% | 11% | 58% |
| Business Studies | 142 | 12% | 3% | 15% |
| Chemistry | 461 | 39% | 6% | 45% |
| Classics | 48 | 192% | 0% | 192% |
| Computing | 232 | 20% | 4% | 24% |
| Design & Technology | 301 | 14% | 2% | 16% |
| Drama | 196 | 65% | 0% | 65% |
| English | 1273 | 42% | 11% | 53% |
| Geography | 520 | 35% | 5% | 40% |
| History | 639 | 80% | 8% | 87% |
| Mathematics | 1199 | 41% | 9% | 50% |
| Modern Languages | 703 | 24% | 5% | 29% |
| Music | 156 | 20% | 4% | 24% |
| Others | 280 | 12% | 0% | 12% |
| Physical Education | 1249 | 170% | 0% | 170% |
| Physics | 361 | 13% | 3% | 16% |
| Religious Education | 179 | 27% | 5% | 32% |
| Total | 8726 | 33% | 5% | 39% |
The final column shows my assumption about the percentage of places that are currently filled based on current offers plus all High Achiever places. On this basis, assuming all of those offered a place turn up at the start of the course, and offers continue to be made at the same rate as in previous years, targets won’t be met, but there might be a slight improvement over last year.
The qualifications around the difference between ‘offers’, some of which are conditional, and outcomes, means these figures are only indicative. I will try and find time to compare the final offer total from last September with the ITT census number as that will provide an indication of ‘drop-out and no shows that could be factored into the totals.
However, it is possible to say with almost 100% certainty that targets won’t be met in many secondary subjects again this year even if target numbers hadn’t been increased.
With the addition of graduating students from degree programmes, it is likely that primary output will be more than sufficient to meet the needs of the sector. Whether these new entrants will be where they are required is another matter.
John Howson 