Last July I wrote a post about how many teachers of physics might start work in state schools in September 2022. As that post still receives views, I thought that I would update my projection for September 2023, based upon the DfE’s ITT Census of last autumn.

The ITT Census revealed that there were 444 trainee physics teachers studying on all routes on course and programmes that commenced in the autumn of 2022. Some 59 of these are on salaried schemes. That was less than one fifth of the DfE’s target number required to staff our school system.

41 on the High Achievers programme – presumably mostly Teach First

  4 on Postgraduate Apprenticeships

14 on the School Direct Salaried programme

That means there were 385 trainees on other routes into teaching, with 300 of those divided between higher education providers and SCITTs. The remainder being on the School Direct fee route.

Allowing for a non-entry rate of 5%, as a result of either not completing the course; entering teaching in an independent school or the further education sector such as in a Sixth Form College, this leaves a possible 350 physics trainees job hunting in 2023. If the non-entry to maintained schools increased to 10% of the cohort, and physics has had lower entry rates in the past than some subjects, the job seeker numbers would be reduced to 315 in total.

Up until the 18^th April from 1^st January 2023, TeachVac www.teachvac.co.uk has recorded 668 specific advertisements for teachers of physics. I am sure that there will also be some other schools that have together posted the 5,384 science teacher vacancies that were really seeking a physics teacher.

This suggests that trainees will be scarce on the ground. Of course, trainees are not the only source of teachers to fill vacancies. There are returners and those switching between schools. Assuming these groups total the same as the trainee number, with the 5% reduction, this might make a total of 700 job seekers for the 668 distinct physics vacancies already advertised and the share of other vacancies where physics was a key component of the job description.

It seems likely that any school seeking a teacher of physics that attracts no interest via a job board such as TeachVac might well need to consider the worth of spending cash on using a recruitment agency. A no find: no fee approach would be the best for a school, but challenging for agencies. However, agencies can also look abroad to see whether there might be teachers overseas willing to fill the school’s vacancy. However, I would think it sensible for a school to ask for proof of success rates before engaging any high- cost agency to fill their teaching vacancy.

If filling vacancies for September will be a challenge, finding a replacement for a January 2024 vacancy for a teacher of physics might well be nigh on impossible for the vast majority of schools. Hopefully, not many schools will be faced with that situation.