Nobody can have been surprised about yesterday’s announcement about extending the learning of mathematics for all up to age 18. In 2017, Prof Adrian Smith was commissioned to write a report for the government reviewing the state of post-16 mathematics.

The relevant paragraphs of this report said;

33. There is a strong case for higher uptake of 16-18 mathematics. Increased participation would be likely to deliver significant payback in terms of labour market skills, returns to individuals, increased productivity and longer-term economic benefits.

34. The government should set an ambition for 16-18 mathematics to become universal in 10 years. There is not a case at this stage, however, for making it compulsory.

Smith review of post-16 mathematics: report and letter – GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)

The Minister that responded on behalf of the DfE was, of course Nick Gibb, once again ensconced in Sanctuary buildings, so perhaps the emergence of this policy must have been expected.

It is a truth universally acknowledged that there are not enough teachers and lecturers in mathematics at present to provide for universal education for all 16–18-year-olds; Smith’s report identified that three-quarters of 16-year-olds with an A*-C in mathematics didn’t continue to study the subject at Key Stage 5. However, the government has done more to upgrade the qualifications of those teaching mathematics post initial teacher training over the past few years than in probably any other curriculum area. But not enough to balance current demand with supply, let alone to meet the increase in demand universal provision for all students at Key Stage 5.

Was the singling out of mathematics by the Prime Minister a message that the notion of a wider Baccalaureate qualification was no longer on the policy agenda?  Who knows, but as a story, it did manage to gain traction as a reverse ‘Jo Moore’ good policy story on a day when the Prime minister was faced with a raft of bad news stories about the economy and the public sector.

TeachVac  www.teachvac.co.uk has calculated that there are only around 1,500 trainee mathematics teachers this year currently in training to work in secondary schools, plus an unknown number training to work as lecturers in the further education sector, including those training ‘on the job’.

TeachVac has also calculated that there were more than 9,000 advertised vacancies for teachers of mathematics placed by schools across England during 2022. Even allowing for the repeat and re-advertisements, there doesn’t yet seem to be enough supply of teachers of mathematics to meet current needs, let alone increase demand by mandating the teaching of mathematics to all at Key Stage 5.

Nevertheless, the government does recognise that in our increasingly technological world, an increased understanding of mathematics to a higher level is important for ever more people in society. As I have mentioned before, the 19^th century market porter became the 20^th century fork-lift truck driver, and is now the 21^st century software engineer writing code to manage robots in an automated warehouse.

It will be interesting see where this policy goes. Will it be a one-day wonder, or will Prof Smith’s Report finally become accepted as necessary policy for a modern first world economy?

* With apologies to  Lancelot Hogben