It is a fair comment to say that comparing this year’s data on trainees with last year doesn’t take into account the covid pandemic effect. Because it could well be so, I have looked back at trainee numbers reported in autumn 2019, before we had ever heard of the term covid, and compared those trainee numbers with the current ITT census
| 2019/20 | 2022/23 | 22/23 compared with 19/20 | |
| Subject | Postgraduate total new entrants to ITT | Postgraduate total new entrants to ITT | |
| Biology | 1,937 | 664 | -1273 |
| English | 2,907 | 1,762 | -1145 |
| Geography | 1,317 | 656 | -661 |
| Modern Foreign Languages | 1,387 | 726 | -661 |
| History | 1,460 | 1,134 | -326 |
| Mathematics | 2,159 | 1,844 | -315 |
| Religious Education | 494 | 341 | -153 |
| Computing | 472 | 348 | -124 |
| Physics | 527 | 444 | -83 |
| Classics | 71 | 58 | -13 |
| Chemistry | 770 | 758 | -12 |
| Music | 312 | 301 | -11 |
| Design & Technology | 433 | 450 | 17 |
| Drama | 294 | 329 | 35 |
| Business Studies | 185 | 232 | 47 |
| Art & Design | 413 | 478 | 65 |
| Physical Education | 1,281 | 1,405 | 124 |
| Other | 282 | 426 | 144 |
| STEM Subjects | 5,865 | 4,058 | -1807 |
| EBacc Subjects | 13,007 | 8,394 | -4613 |
| Non-EBacc Secondary Subjects | 3,694 | 3,962 | 268 |
| Primary | 12,216 | 10,868 | -1348 |
| Secondary | 16,701 | 12,356 | -4345 |
| Total | 28,917 | 23,224 | -5693 |
The good news is that six subjects recruited more trainees this year than in 2019/2020, providing a total of 432 additional trainees in secondary subjects to offset against the more than 4,500 fewer trainees in other key subjects. Now, some of the reductions may be due to changes in targets in popular subjects, but with over recruitment still possible it is difficult to see why providers would take that approach.
The chaos that is science recruitment continues, with biology providing nearly 1,300 fewer teachers this year. Do we need a ‘general science’ category, and for all science trainees to receive similar bursaries if that is still the favoured route to attract new teachers?
The decline in trainees in English, so that there are this year fewer trainees this year than in mathematics and more than 1,000 fewer than in 2019/20, must be of concern as must be the collapse in Modern Foreign Languages trainees, especially if we are to remain a trading nation, not only with the EU, but across the world. Whatever happened to Mr Gove’s 5,000 Mandarin teachers?
Is it good news that the decline in design and technology and business studies has stopped or should we still be worried that the decline has been arrested at such low levels?
The decline in primary trainee numbers must partly reflect the decline in the birth rate and the expected continued decline in the primary school population. Nevertheless, this sort of overall number may cause some local staffing issues for the sector unless the trainee numbers are well spread across England to meet the needs of all primary schools.
There may be a glimmer of good news in the fact that non-Ebacc subjects fared better than Ebacc subjects over the period. Might this be providing a portent of a change in the overall labour market that with the coming recession might meant that this years’ numbers really were the bottom of the cycle? The first set of applications data should provide clues for the 2024 recruitment round when the DfE issues them; hopefully next week.
John Howson 
There are some interesting changes to how well different routes have done during a difficult recruitment cycle. Whilst there some issues with taking a mean of the previous three census (2019/20, 2020/21 and 2021/22), the following comparison does help to show how well routes have been for their total of PGITT trainees (Secondary + Primary)
HEI = 10,300 this year compared to 3-year mean of 14,000 (down 27%)
SD Fee = 5860 compared to mean 8850 (down 34%)
SCITT = 4,230 compared to mean 4,400 (down 4%)
TF = 1,400 compared to mean 1,600 (down 13%)
SD Sal + App = 1,460 compared to mean 2,300 (down 36%)
SCITT can be seen to have held their ground during this period. But as their cohorts typically represent only 1/6th of all trainees, we cannot rely on their successful approach alone.
Mark,
Thanks. These changes have implications for the size of the ‘free pool’ of trainees. These are trainees not in schools and likely to be committed to that school. High Achievers – vice TF – plus SD Sal and PGApp May make a difference in some parts of the country in some subjects, especially in English where 484 of the 1,762 may be committed.