Worst Secondary PTRs for a decade

Yesterday the DfE published the results of the School Workforce Survey, undertaken in November 2022. School workforce in England, Reporting year 2022 – Explore education statistics – GOV.UK (explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk)

The good news is that there are more teachers; the bad news is that in both the primary and secondary sectors the Pupil Teacher Ratio has worsened. Falling pupil numbers had meant that the PTR in the primary sector had been improving over the past few years from a low of 20.9 in 2018/19 to 20.9 in the 2021 census. However, in 2022 it worsened, to 20.7. Not a big change, but a change in direction nevertheless.

In the secondary sector, the PTR has been worsening for some years now. The PTR peaked at 14.8 pupils per teacher in 2013/14 and has now worsened to 16.8 at the 2022 census; a whole two pupils per teacher worse in a decade, with all the implications for teacher workload that implies. No doubt the worsening PTR and its association with class sizes will be one reason why teaching is less popular as a career.

However, for those that do enter teaching, although fewer are remaining, with the number remaining after one year of service having fallen from its high of 8.3% in 2019, just before the pandemic to 87.2% in 2021, this is still above the 84.9% of 2016. Of even more concern must be the loss of teachers with 4-7 years of service that should be starting to fill key middle leadership positions. That just 64% remain from the 2015 cohort is disturbing. Equally disturbing is the loss of teachers from earlier cohorts. This is an area where research is needed to understand the causes. Is the global nature of teaching attracting mid-career teachers to move overseas.

The other straw in the wind from the census that cannot be ignored is the sharp increase in vacancies recorded from 1,564 in 2021 to 2,334 in 2022. On the DfE’s own measure, this means that the vacancy rate for classroom teachers has increased from 0.2% in 2020/21 – no doubt influenced by the covid pandemic to 0.5% in November 2022.  By comparison in the teacher shortages at the turn of the century, the vacancy rate in January 2001 (data was collected in January and not November at that time) reached 1.2%, so even allowing for the change in reporting date, the position may not be as bad yet as it was then. But there is little evidence to suggest that it will be better in November 2023, and much to suggest it might well be higher than 0.5%.

The rate of temporary filled posts has also increased sharply from 0.5% to 0.8%, although it remains below the 0.9% recorded as recently as 2016/17.

So, although overall teacher numbers have increased from 465.527 in 2022 to 468,371 in 2022: a new record high in terms of teacher FTEs in recent times, the increase has not been enough to offset increased pupil numbers in the secondary sector and other changes in demand.

Are schools offering permanent posts?

What type of tenure is on offer in teaching vacancies posted during the autumn term? Research by TeachVac www.teachvac.co.uk reveals big differences between the primary and secondary sectors in the type of tenure on offer this autumn.

TeachVac classifies vacancies into one of three groups: Permanent positions; temporary positions or posts arising from maternity leave.

The data is collected from vacancy adverts posted by schools on their web sites.

From the start of September 2022 up to 14th November: an arbitrary date with no other reason for selection than that I am writing this blog on the 15th November, the data collected was as follows.

Classroom Teacher posts
PrimaryMaternityPermanentTemporaryTotal
Sep-224916113261428
Oct-224328384271697
Nov-221694603761005
1092190911294130
SecondaryTotal
Sep-2255426781843416
Oct-2255330352673855
Nov-2227616481782102
138373616299373
Grand Total24759270175813503
Source TeachVac

Two facts stand out. The secondary sector advertised more vacancies than the primary sector, and there was a difference in tenure of advertised vacancies between the two sectors. This is obvious if the actual numbers are converted into percentages

Classroom Teacher posts
PrimaryMaternityPermanentTemporary
Sep-2234%43%23%100%
Oct-2225%49%25%100%
Nov-2217%46%37%100%
26%46%27%100%
Secondary    
Sep-2216%78%5%100%
Oct-2214%79%7%100%
Nov-2213%78%8%100%
15%79%7%100%
Grand Total18%69%13%100%
Source TeachVac

Less than half of the posts advertised in the primary sector have been permanent positions, compared with 79% of vacancies in the secondary sector. Maternity leave vacancies are also much higher in the primary sector than in the secondary sector, accounting for a quarter of all vacancies in the primary sector and a third of the September vacancies.

Despite the downturn in the birth-rate nationally, primary school teachers are still it seems taking time out to raise a family. However, the downturn in pupil numbers across the primary sector must be affecting school budgets, because pupil numbers are an important element of school-funding these days. With any teacher leaving at Christmas for maternity leave not likely to return until January 2024, many schools may not be certain of their school rolls, and hence funding, beyond the summer of 2023.

With the Autumn Statement on Thursday, and the data from the recent NAHT Survey of schools, it seems likely that more schools will resort to temporary appointments in the future as they consider their budgets going forward.

Past experience from the time of the Geddes Axe of a hundred years ago and the recession of the late 1970s and early 1980s suggests that class sizes will increase and teacher numbers decline, if funding is again put under pressure, although that outcome needs to be balanced by the number of teachers quitting the state-school sector.

In the past, when there were fewer graduate posts across the economy, a recession meant unemployed teachers. This time the outcome may be different between the primary and secondary sectors, with more unemployed primary school teachers than amongst their secondary sector colleagues unless there is a change in funding arrangements.

How efficient are our schools?

Now I always enjoy reading DfE documents that tell schools how to do things, and their recently published Review of efficiency in the schools system https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/209114/Review_of_efficiency_in_the_schools_system.pdf has some delightful gems within it. My favour is the quote taken from a 2009 McKinsey report that said ‘Second only to the quality of teaching is school leadership. Replacing an ‘average’ principal with an ‘outstanding’ principal in an ‘average’ school could increase student achievement by over 20 percentile points’. I am sure that this shouldn’t be used solely as a reason for governing bodies of all schools not regarded as above average this week by a passing Ofsted team to give their head notice at the end of term celebrations. But it does raise the issue of how we can improve school leadership now that an increasing number of schools don’t have local managers with senior education experience they can easily contact to discuss problems.

There is a lot about staffing and the effectiveness of spending on teachers over support staff in the DfE’s report. For instance, in the high spending school category, school in the top 20% spend 58% of their budgets on staffing whereas schools in the bottom 20% of attainment among the high spenders only spend 51% of their budgets on staffing. I guess the latter may have more NQTs and a high staff turnover. It would also be interesting to see how Teach First fits into this scenario as it is a relatively low spending programme for staffing even though it is an expensive way to train some types of teachers.

On Saturday I talked to an NUT conference for supply teachers, many of whom are a very under-valued and underpaid resource. The DfE report did note that those schools that employed their own supply staff (presumably mostly large secondary schools) saved money, although the debate about the need for subject expertise can also be an important factor. However, schools do need to recognise that the cheapest option isn’t always the best solution to improving standards, and you may well get what you pay for. The best supply teachers do the job because they want that type of life whereas others do it because it is the only work that they can get in teaching. There is room for the professional associations to take more interest in the fate of this group of workers, especially as the government is seemingly trying to de-professionalise teaching as a career. Implicit in the DfE report is the view that ‘cover supervisors’ and ‘teaching assistants’ aren’t the same as teachers and, despite the rhetoric from Ministers, teachers who are qualified do make a difference.

The challenge for the next decade may well be how to entice the most able at teaching to enter the profession when the wider economy is once again offering a range of job opportunities. Ensuring those that do enter teaching are fairly distributed between schools will also be a challenge that won’t just be about money.