Entrants into Higher Education from those domiciled in England

The DfE has published some interesting statistics about entrants to higher education level courses from those domiciled in England. Higher Level Learners in England, Academic year 2023/24 – Explore education statistics – GOV.UK

Overall, numbers during the period from 2015-16 to the end of 2023-24 increased from 728,140 to

time_periodqualification_aimnumber_of_entrants
201516Total728140
201617Total745505
201718Total750370
201819Total765155
201920Total769200
202021Total859745
202122Total844070
202223Total843220
202324Total838200
increase110060

838,200. This was an increase of 110,060. However not all types of qualification showed the same increase.

Apprenticeships across the board showed an increase from 26,870 in 2015-2106

time_periodqualification_aimnumber_of_entrants
201516Apprenticeship26870
201617Apprenticeship36075
201718Apprenticeship47090
201819Apprenticeship73820
201920Apprenticeship81315
202021Apprenticeship97490
202122Apprenticeship104980
202223Apprenticeship111360
202324Apprenticeship120420

To 120,420 entrants by 2023-24.

However, for First degrees, numbers were falling by 2023-24

time_periodqualification_aimnumber_of_entrants
201516First Degree (excluding Integrated Master’s Degree)374805
201617First Degree (excluding Integrated Master’s Degree)375720
201718First Degree (excluding Integrated Master’s Degree)377795
201819First Degree (excluding Integrated Master’s Degree)380295
201920First Degree (excluding Integrated Master’s Degree)391625
202021First Degree (excluding Integrated Master’s Degree)426630
202122First Degree (excluding Integrated Master’s Degree)427295
202223First Degree (excluding Integrated Master’s Degree)427625
202324First Degree (excluding Integrated Master’s Degree)422700

The peak year was 2021-22, and since then there has been a slight fall in numbers. Over the next few years, once the current bulge works its way through the school system, numbers of home domiciled entrants may fall further, adding to a loss of income for some degree awarding institutions.

These institutions already seem to be losing income from Master’s Degrees

Master’s Degree including integrated degrees20151687490
201617113415
201718114625
201819113365
201920115170
202021139260
202122123895
202223117155
202324114275

The 2023-24 enrolment was some 25,00 below the peak recorded during the covid year 2020-21 and more in line with the longer-term trend.  

Enrolments in doctors from those domiciled in England has shown an upward trend.

time_periodqualification_aimnumber_of_entrants
201516Doctorate11900
201617Doctorate12200
201718Doctorate12735
201819Doctorate13770
201920Doctorate12675
202021Doctorate13530
202122Doctorate12925
202223Doctorate12655
202324Doctorate12920

As with Master’s degrees, there was a spike in enrolments in 2020-21, following on from another spike in 2018-19.

The data on enrolments for postgraduate courses in Education whether PGCE or PGDE are slightly concerning

Postgraduate Education courses20151621870
20161720005
20171820725
20181921570
20192020775
20202125360
20212221925
20222315925
20232413705

It is not clear whether the reduction in primary ITT is partly responsible for the decline in entrants or whether there has been a change in registrations for school-based trainees? Again, the spike in recruitment during covid is very marked. However, as the notes indicate the 2022/23 academic year saw a larger number of data quality issues compared to other years. Therefore, we advise caution when comparing higher education figures across the time series. It is now clear whether or not the ITT numbers suffered from data quality issues.

Few successful appeals for infant class places in 2025.

One consequence in the fall in the birth rate seems to have been a downward trend in appeals over admissions to infant classes.  Key Stage 1 classes have been capped at 30 pupils for nearly 30 years now, so it might be expected that parents would be keen to ensure their offspring gained a place at the primary school of their choice. After all, parental choice has been a cornerstone of admissions policy since 1979, regardless of the government in power. The data for 2025 admissions ahs now been added to the tie series by the DfE. Admission appeals in England, Reporting year 2025 – Explore education statistics – GOV.UK

2025
Primary (infant classes)Other primary classesPrimary
Admissions617,802137,153754,955
Admission appeals lodged by parents8,2506,33414,584
Admission appeals lodged by parents (percentage)1.34.61.9
Appeals heard by an appeals panel5,1283,8718,999
Appeals heard by an appeals panel (percentage)0.82.81.2
Successful appeals4991,0961,595
Successful appeals (percentage)9.728.317.7

Of the 617,802 requests for places in infant classes, only 8,250 resulted in an appeal, presumably as the child was not placed in the school of the parent’s choosing at offer day. Some parents either accept another school or a place became available, so 3,122 of these appeals were not proceeded with, leaving just 5,128 appeals heard across the whole of England. Of these appeals, only 499, or 9.7% of the appeals heard were successful, presumably because of the class size limit.

Across the rest of the primary age range, there were only 14,584 appeals, or 1.9% of those either moving children during the Key Stage 2 phase or joining for the first time, perhaps because of the imposition of VAT on private school fees in January 2025. Again, a number of these appeals were not heard, presumably again because a place could be found after the appeal had been lodged. Interestingly, the success rate was much higher for these appeals than for the appeals for admission to infant classes, presumably because there is no mandated maximum class size for Key Stage 2 classes.

In the secondary sector, appeals in 2025 were 4.9% of admissions, around the middle of the 4.5 to 5.5 range of the period between 2016 and 2025. Interestingly, the success rate of these appeals has been falling. In 2025, it was only 19.9%, compared with 26.3% of appeals heard in 2016.

As entry numbers are likely to fall in Year 7 over the next few years, it will be interesting to see whether the percentage of successful appeals rises over the next few years. However, it may well be that popular schools remain attractive to parents, and will still have no spare places creating the need to appeal, especially if siblings are not all granted the place at the same school.

The present Bill before parliament should return in-year admissions for all schools to local authority control. At present academies can opt out of a local system and manage their own in-year admissions. As I have not before (Jacob’s Law) this was especially challenging for children in care needing to find a new school place. Hopefully, their needs will be better appreciated in the future.